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GBP/JPY for QQE Traders!

  • #2,241
  • Jun 25, 2008 3:54am Jun 25, 2008 3:54am
Nobitacu,

Do you any trade running right now with the KISS method?
  • #2,242
  • Jun 25, 2008 3:42pm Jun 25, 2008 3:42pm
Quoting fxhaz
Nobitacu,

Do you any trade running right now with the KISS method?
Nope, I don't right now actually, because I was driving on the road going to my parents house to visit them. If you're looking for a trade, UJ might confirm for a Sell later on, but the MA gap is still way too close to each other right now, and 25MA needs to point downwards a bit more too.
  • #2,243
  • Jun 30, 2008 4:57am Jun 30, 2008 4:57am
I'm off to Japan for a month for my wedding and other events. I'll be back early August, until then, I wish you all the best luck and win lots of pips!
  • #2,244
  • Jun 30, 2008 1:46pm Jun 30, 2008 1:46pm
Best of luck with your wedding Nobitacu! I got married in May. Remember to enjoy the day in the midst of all the planning.

Look forward to seeing you back.

On another note, has anyone heard from Aus. He was due back to his room about 2 weeks ago and it seems no one has heard from him.
  • #2,245
  • Jul 1, 2008 9:47am Jul 1, 2008 9:47am
Congratulations too Nobitacu and all the best on your big day!

Thanks once again for your input and contribution re. QQE trading.



Quoting TiaForex
Best of luck with your wedding Nobitacu! I got married in May. Remember to enjoy the day in the midst of all the planning.

Look forward to seeing you back.

On another note, has anyone heard from Aus. He was due back to his room about 2 weeks ago and it seems no one has heard from him.
  • #2,246
  • Jul 1, 2008 10:32am Jul 1, 2008 10:32am
I'm thinking of using this thread the way Sith Lord started it, as a place for thoughts and analysis for those trading Auslanco's 15Min and 4hr/1hr strategies. There seems to be a lot of people on the main GJ thread so stuff can get diluted.

Although it was great to see mjolimer and Pips Cruiser talk through the setup this morning. I took the short after confirmation at around the 210.80 region. It seemed we were getting 4H/1H signals and also a 15M signal when price was just below DP. So I'm targeting 200 pips.

daily, 4h and 1h all below Gann, daily chart turning bearish as PC said. But crucially, the signals came through clear, and as I am testing the strategy I take them. Maybe they win, and maybe they get stopped out. My goal is to gather data after live forward testing to see if the system gives me an edge. That could come from a 65% win rate.

So we'll see.

I'll post my thoughts on the strategies as I see things forming. Hopefully we can get a discussion going.
  • #2,247
  • Jul 1, 2008 12:23pm Jul 1, 2008 12:23pm
Well so far I am getting clobbered on this one. Which isn't necessarily a bad thing as long as I trade my plan. What I did wrong was extend my stop losses up a bit just so that they hid behind some significant resistance. But I didn't reduce my lot size accordingly so broke my Money management rules. Losing 3-4% is not part of my plan, I go for 2%. I would like to say lesson learned, but sometimes they need to be branded in to my forehead before that happens.

I had my exit signal on the 15M trade when the qqe60 crossed upwards, butdidn't take it because I thought the 4hr/1hr was still on and I had taken positions based on both those signals. Again, not trading my plan. I should allocate certain of my multiple lots to each strategy and not switch them around.

I'm also realising I have no exit strategy for the 4H1H strategy. What do you guys use to get out? Is it when the 4H QQE5 crosses the opposite direction. Or is it just a trade you ride to the stop?

The profit or loss of this trade is immaterial. Success comes from trading my plan. I moved the goalposts a little and that messes with the probabilities.

Every day demoing when I learn something is a good day.
  • #2,248
  • Edited 3:45pm Jul 1, 2008 3:33pm | Edited 3:45pm
Quoting TiaForex
Well so far I am getting clobbered on this one. Which isn't necessarily a bad thing as long as I trade my plan. What I did wrong was extend my stop losses up a bit just so that they hid behind some significant resistance. But I didn't reduce my lot size accordingly so broke my Money management rules. Losing 3-4% is not part of my plan, I go for 2%. I would like to say lesson learned, but sometimes they need to be branded in to my forehead before that happens.

I had my exit signal on the 15M trade when the qqe60 crossed upwards, butdidn't take it because I thought the 4hr/1hr was still on and I had taken positions based on both those signals. Again, not trading my plan. I should allocate certain of my multiple lots to each strategy and not switch them around.

I'm also realising I have no exit strategy for the 4H1H strategy. What do you guys use to get out? Is it when the 4H QQE5 crosses the opposite direction. Or is it just a trade you ride to the stop?

The profit or loss of this trade is immaterial. Success comes from trading my plan. I moved the goalposts a little and that messes with the probabilities.

Every day demoing when I learn something is a good day.
Hi Tia and others: Re Auslanco, I will be posting any updates, about him returning from vacation and his status that I receive, to his website I built. Right now the website has an IP address as the hosting company screwed up my domain name. Will be back under my domain name mid July but in the meantime you can see his website by PM'ng me. I was given an infraction by Twee from FF for posting the address before and warned I would be banned if I did it again.
Rod
Trade what you see, not what you think.
  • #2,249
  • Jul 2, 2008 3:33am Jul 2, 2008 3:33am
Quoting TiaForex
I'm thinking of using this thread the way Sith Lord started it, as a place for thoughts and analysis for those trading Auslanco's 15Min and 4hr/1hr strategies. There seems to be a lot of people on the main GJ thread so stuff can get diluted.

Although it was great to see mjolimer and Pips Cruiser talk through the setup this morning. I took the short after confirmation at around the 210.80 region. It seemed we were getting 4H/1H signals and also a 15M signal when price was just below DP. So I'm targeting 200 pips.

daily, 4h and 1h all below Gann, daily chart turning bearish as PC said. But crucially, the signals came through clear, and as I am testing the strategy I take them. Maybe they win, and maybe they get stopped out. My goal is to gather data after live forward testing to see if the system gives me an edge. That could come from a 65% win rate.

So we'll see.

I'll post my thoughts on the strategies as I see things forming. Hopefully we can get a discussion going.
Great idea! Looking forward to it!

I think the UK housing price news release turned the tide yesterday. It was negative data, but not as negative as expected. G/U and G/J price started shooting up after that. We could have opted to wait until after it, just in case. Or we could have opted to wait until after the next 4hr close, which would have also been after the news. But with price falling as quickly as it was, along with all the bearish signals, it didn't seem right to stay on the sidelines.

News is something we have to deal with. It can make or break a trade. A person is probably better off avoiding trades during certain releases. Price can whipsaw both directions and take out stop losses even if does eventually go the direction you thought it would. Last night wasn't like that, but it did reverse things, IMO.

By the way, I use a 100 pip SL for a 200 pip trade, and a 150 pip SL for a 300 pip trade. That seems like a good risk / reward. I won't close a 4hr/1hr trade because of a QQE turning. But I will close a trade early if it's obvious things have turned against me. This isn't always easy to judge though, and it could be argued you're better off making the market take you out. It's not uncommon for a 4hr/1hr trade to run though 2 sessions.
  • #2,250
  • Jul 2, 2008 3:51am Jul 2, 2008 3:51am
Quoting Pips_Cruiser
Great idea! Looking forward to it!

I think the UK housing price news release turned the tide yesterday. It was negative data, but not as negative as expected. G/U and G/J price started shooting up after that. We could have opted to wait until after it, just in case. Or we could have opted to wait until after the next 4hr close, which would have also been after the news. But with price falling as quickly as it was, along with all the bearish signals, it didn't seem right to stay on the sidelines.

News is something we have to deal with. It can make or break a trade. A person is probably better off avoiding trades during certain releases. Price can whipsaw both directions and take out stop losses even if does eventually go the direction you thought it would. Last night wasn't like that, but it did reverse things, IMO.

By the way, I use a 100 pip SL for a 200 pip trade, and a 150 pip SL for a 300 pip trade. That seems like a good risk / reward. I won't close a 4hr/1hr trade because of a QQE turning. But I will close a trade early if it's obvious things have turned against me. This isn't always easy to judge though, and it could be argued you're better off making the market take you out. It's not uncommon for a 4hr/1hr trade to run though 2 sessions.
That's good analysis PC, and thanks for the SL TP tips. I need to scale my lot size down to fit money management rules if I take my SL that high but I think for the 4H/1H it's wise.

And thanks for the pm, I haven't had chance to look yet but when i do I'll get back to you.

By my reckoning we just had a 15M strategy signal. Arrow and dot appeared and price was above DP at 211.25, 1HSMA100 at 211.68 and DSMA5 at 211.75. I'm off to check if R1 makes it a worthwhile risk/reward ratio to trade.

4H chart is bullish as is 1H; we're just waiting for the QQE5 to cross down below the 50 and back up again for a signal, but that might be a while.

The caveat is that the market has changed overnight from strong bearish to strong bullish signals, and a couple of days ago it did the reverse. There's no clear sign of the mid to long term trend right now.

But as I always say, I'm testing the strategy and so a signal is a signal. Otherwise I'm just testing my hunches, and I already know how reliable they are....
  • #2,251
  • Jul 2, 2008 3:53am Jul 2, 2008 3:53am
ok the 4h has crossed up.. so I'm looking for longs

Only problem for me is that the 1h is a bit too high over the 50 line to take a long at this point.

Guess I wait until it crosses back down or touches and goes up again.

Anyone else taking a trade? Pipscruiser, are you in at the moment?


John
  • #2,252
  • Jul 2, 2008 4:19am Jul 2, 2008 4:19am
Hi John,

Sent you a message on yahoo yesterday. Do you still use it?

I think the QQE5 on the 1H is too high to take the signal. But the 15M strategy is definitely on.

I wonder if the same issues apply to the QQE5 on the 15M strategy. Aus said it just has to be crossed above the 50 line and the dotted rsi line but he didn't say whether it was exhausted if it had gone to far beyond that point.

...actually, I'm making it to complicated. He spelled out that point on the 4H1H strategy but left it out of the 15M so it doesn't matter I'm sure.
  • #2,253
  • Jul 2, 2008 4:27am Jul 2, 2008 4:27am
opps. yes i havent used my yahoo for a while, sorry.. tried to access it but it is blocked on my work server.

pm me.. sorry for the delay.

I'm not trading the 15m strategy anymore.. so ill wait for the 4h to line up

John
  • #2,254
  • Jul 2, 2008 5:05am Jul 2, 2008 5:05am
Just something to note.

GJ 4H has been ranging up n down but the 4H QQE has crossed up since earlier and getting itself out of oversold area, IMO this is a sign of bearish continuation and that'll start once the 4H QQE crosses back down.

Just my 2 cent.
Trade what you see, not what you think.
  • #2,255
  • Jul 2, 2008 6:04am Jul 2, 2008 6:04am
Quoting karmostaji
Just something to note.

GJ 4H has been ranging up n down but the 4H QQE has crossed up since earlier and getting itself out of oversold area, IMO this is a sign of bearish continuation and that'll start once the 4H QQE crosses back down.

Just my 2 cent.
Hallo Karmo!

I was trading the UJ parallel to the GJ due to the following formation. As the price ran straight through my 38.2 Fib, I just took the money. Now after ADP NFP the minitrend seems to be broken and is heading down.

We are probably not using the same QQE version, but my QQEA at DARF 3.5 is still on bullish turf. But the GJ at least is firing down at some pace at this point, so I guess we may spiral down with "Thursday NFP" now eventually weaker than expected, too!

Have a great week!
Ciao!
Matt
Attached Image
  • #2,256
  • Jul 2, 2008 7:25am Jul 2, 2008 7:25am
Quoting karmostaji
Just something to note.

GJ 4H has been ranging up n down but the 4H QQE has crossed up since earlier and getting itself out of oversold area, IMO this is a sign of bearish continuation and that'll start once the 4H QQE crosses back down.

Just my 2 cent.
This looks right to me.

I just need 1 hour to cross down and i will be tempted to be a seller.
My 4hr hasn't actually confirmed any cross up yet although it has looked crossed during the period... (I've been caught out like that before.. not this time..!!!)

I don't really care which way it goes but it is looking like short is the word..

Funny really...

John
  • #2,257
  • Jul 2, 2008 7:57am Jul 2, 2008 7:57am
Well my 15M strategy trade got stopped out, partly by the news. No great lesson except to stay out of the market during big news announcements. It was a clear signal.

mjolimer, the yahoo was just to make contact, nothing important... May I ask why you don't trade the 15M strategy anymore?

There's clearly a range going onbut backed by the monthly and daily charts it looks like a fall is imminent.

Nice to see you here Karmo.
  • #2,258
  • Jul 2, 2008 8:13am Jul 2, 2008 8:13am
Quoting TiaForex
Well my 15M strategy trade got stopped out, partly by the news. No great lesson except to stay out of the market during big news announcements. It was a clear signal.

mjolimer, the yahoo was just to make contact, nothing important... May I ask why you don't trade the 15M strategy anymore?

There's clearly a range going onbut backed by the monthly and daily charts it looks like a fall is imminent.

Nice to see you here Karmo.
I don't trade it mainly because i was taking too many trades and the higher timeframes have been nicer to me.. so now all i do is wait for perfect 4h / 1hr setups on gbp/jpy... and also trade using Jacko's techniques and guidance on the eur/usd.

I think most of the systems work a lot of the time as long as you stick to them.. my problem was not the system it was me. To suceed i need to control my trading and calm down..

Anyway.. looks like a perfect short if the 1h qqe closes below the 50... my candle has 49 minutes to go..

I think i may be tempted.. what do you guys think? It's not a great time of day maybe? Opps.. just realised 4h hasn't opened below gann.. no trade for me.. damn

john

  • #2,259
  • Jul 2, 2008 8:44am Jul 2, 2008 8:44am
Quoting mjolimer
I don't trade it mainly because i was taking too many trades and the higher timeframes have been nicer to me.. so now all i do is wait for perfect 4h / 1hr setups on gbp/jpy... and also trade using Jacko's techniques and guidance on the eur/usd.

I think most of the systems work a lot of the time as long as you stick to them.. my problem was not the system it was me. To suceed i need to control my trading and calm down..

Anyway.. looks like a perfect short if the 1h qqe closes below the 50... my candle has 49 minutes to go..

I think i may be tempted.. what do you guys think? It's not a great time of day maybe? Opps.. just realised 4h hasn't opened below gann.. no trade for me.. damn

john

It seems like taking perfect setups only, with low frequency trading and high capitalisation are the way to go. After extensive demo trading of course. And I'm beginning to see how any of the main systems can be successful if the trader sticks to it and has patience.

I'm trying not to be a system junkie, but Jacko, James16 and the DIBS method are definitely on my list to research. All in good time.

By the way, for the 4H I have both Alpari and ODL setup on my computer. the 4h candle closes 2 hours later on Alpari. Which means that sometimes the trade lines up on one and not the other. As long as I stick to one once I've picked the trade (ie not entrance through one and exit through another) then it covers my bases.
  • #2,260
  • Jul 2, 2008 8:52am Jul 2, 2008 8:52am
Yep, that 1H chart is textbook. Shame the 4H is so bullish.

I'm also learning that speculation on where the market is going to go is useless. Nobody knows. Just sit tight, have patience and wait for the signal.

Learning a lot from you guys. Thanks
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