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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #98,501
  • Jul 1, 2008 7:45pm Jul 1, 2008 7:45pm
Quoting mktjong
Hate to tell u guys .. I think we would see 209.xx if not 208.xx by tomorrow. The current Japanese Bond market is very strong ..
shorting again. here we go. sigh.
  • #98,502
  • Jul 1, 2008 7:45pm Jul 1, 2008 7:45pm
Quoting mktjong
Hate to tell u guys .. I think we would see 209.xx if not 208.xx by tomorrow. The current Japanese Bond market is very strong ..
YOu could very well be right.I will look for possible shorts below 210.50. Not sure if I will short, but will evaluate it at that time.
  • #98,503
  • Jul 1, 2008 7:54pm Jul 1, 2008 7:54pm
Here is another of my guesses....

18 4HR bars cannot close above 4HR 50 EMA.

On the flipside cannot close BELOW daily 200SMA
211.20 area for several days.
Keeps taking a peek but cannot close below.
Daily momentums are slightly down to mixed.

Looks like that 210-210.50 area will be the place to look for additional longs or shorts.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Attached Image
  • #98,504
  • Jul 1, 2008 7:55pm Jul 1, 2008 7:55pm
Quoting Rustyyy
Risk aversion ahead of US labor report.

I guess you can add oil, bank writedowns, US auto sales, subprime and conventional mortgage defaults, dow down to August 02 lows, etc, etc, etc......
I joined the short moments ago @211.65 .. don't want to miss the train
  • #98,505
  • Jul 1, 2008 7:57pm Jul 1, 2008 7:57pm
Quoting mktjong
I joined the short moments ago @211.65 .. don't want to miss the train
Yes sir. I have them from 212.50-211.00.
But will close if we start getting a reversal at that 210.00-210.50 area.

Will know soon, probably by London.
  • #98,506
  • Jul 1, 2008 7:59pm Jul 1, 2008 7:59pm
Quoting mktjong
I joined the short moments ago @211.65 .. don't want to miss the train
Be careful of the new DP at 211.20 and the 15 min bull flag.If it comes thru that pivot you will have a nice short andpippies in the pocket. But I will wait for shorts.
  • #98,507
  • Jul 1, 2008 8:31pm Jul 1, 2008 8:31pm
Quoting PipChick
Be careful of the new DP at 211.20 and the 15 min bull flag.If it comes thru that pivot you will have a nice short andpippies in the pocket. But I will wait for shorts.
Closed for 41 pips ..
  • #98,508
  • Jul 1, 2008 8:38pm Jul 1, 2008 8:38pm
Quoting mktjong
Closed for 41 pips ..
Nice pippin Mk
  • #98,509
  • Jul 1, 2008 8:41pm Jul 1, 2008 8:41pm
Quoting PipChick
Be careful of the new DP at 211.20 and the 15 min bull flag.If it comes thru that pivot you will have a nice short andpippies in the pocket. But I will wait for shorts.
Agreed, and add the lower BB's on 20m and 30m to the support. They both converge with pivots tonite, and when it's semi-ranging, they seem to work well.
Attached Images
FUBAR...
  • #98,510
  • Jul 1, 2008 8:44pm Jul 1, 2008 8:44pm
The 211.16/20 area also holds several fib levels from our recent swing highs and lows and the 4hr 5sma..

I still see her dropping though....let's see
  • #98,511
  • Jul 1, 2008 9:01pm Jul 1, 2008 9:01pm
Quoting lilmoe
here's something else to share....

fibs are pretty powerful. DP yesterday was at 211.10, it was very significant because it was in perfect confluence with 38.2 fib of the fall from 241 to 192.

yesterday was the first of this monthly candle which successfully closed above that level, so did the previous 2 weeklies. so logically expecting the next fib wouldn't be that bad. the next fib (50%) is around 216.88

other than the weekly 200sma (blue) we might have some tough resistance at the green TL (neckline of the massive h/s pattern on monthly/weekly charts) but closing above that on a weekly level might put 221-222 on the cards.

i am current long and will add more longs as we go down, BUT a breach of yesterday's low would ask me to reverse my trade and look for 207.77 as mentioned earlier; where from there i will again start scaling longs.

when we get to 216 area, i will start scaling shorts. with SL above 217. but again, if we close above the green neckline i will reevaluate.

here's the chart.


Attachment
sounds like you have an awesome plan. I am currently opposite to you and will short any time we come close to the 50 sma on the 4hour charts ( about 212).

Carry trades should start unwinding soon as there has been a little unwinding on some of the not so good banking news out of the UK etc etc.

Also if you can plot a 1930 dj chart over the 2008 dj .... they look exactly alike other than 2008 dj chart has about 4000 points to go down. , taking it down to 7800 ish

This has been the biggest decline in June since the Great Depression.
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #98,512
  • Jul 1, 2008 9:15pm Jul 1, 2008 9:15pm
The difference between 1932 and today is the FED has not pulled liquidity out of the banking system it has actually injected tons of it. Excess money means inflation and any country hides its inflation in stocks and real estate.

Last week Barclays said we are no longer in a financial crisis but rather in an inflation crisis.
It really is that easy.
  • #98,513
  • Jul 1, 2008 9:22pm Jul 1, 2008 9:22pm
Quoting PipChick
Be careful of the new DP at 211.20 and the 15 min bull flag.If it comes thru that pivot you will have a nice short andpippies in the pocket. But I will wait for shorts.

15 min was a nice double top with bearish div macd that played out nicely at the time of your posting.

I wanted to point out something very simple that I have been following on the way up and now on the way down. The 4 hour 50 sma. On the way up it formed strong support , now it is forming strong resistance.

Todays bounce on the markets was a bear rally ( often fast and furious in bear markets). This caused the gj to test the 50 % fib of the move down from 213.90 to 209.4 , even if we test the 61.8% fib retrace of this move we are only barely above the 50 sma on the 4 hour at 212.18.

Also of note on the 4 hour chart is how , so far , the rsi has been rejected from the 50 level.

On the 2 hour the move from 209.40 to 212 is in fact a bear flag set up as long as price remains under 212,84( 76% of move down)

As long as price remains under the 50 sma on the 4hour I have a 1-2-3 sell formation that could take us to a 161.8% fe at 206.90

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gj4h.jpg Size: 137 KB
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #98,514
  • Jul 1, 2008 9:29pm Jul 1, 2008 9:29pm
Quoting malcolmb14
15 min was a nice double top with bearish div macd that played out nicely at the time of your posting.

I wanted to point out something very simple that I have been following on the way up and now on the way down. The 4 hour 50 sma. On the way up it formed strong support , now it is forming strong resistance.

Todays bounce on the markets was a bear rally ( often fast and furious in bear markets). This caused the gj to test the 50 % fib of the move down from 213.90 to 209.4 , even if we test the 61.8% fib retrace of this move we are only barely above the 50 sma on the 4 hour at 212.18.

Also of note on the 4 hour chart is how , so far , the rsi has been rejected from the 50 level.

On the 2 hour the move from 209.40 to 212 is in fact a bear flag set up as long as price remains under 212,84( 76% of move down)

As long as price remains under the 50 sma on the 4hour I have a 1-2-3 sell formation that could take us to a 161.8% fe at 206.90

Attachment

Attachment
Good info Malcolmb. Thank You!
  • #98,515
  • Jul 1, 2008 11:49pm Jul 1, 2008 11:49pm
Hello Traders,
my name is Muhammad Younas
wanted to share this with you guys

it took me 2 years to build a system that works
and finaly it worked.
i heard some one saying "90% of people trading in forex loose their money because they trade with high leverage"
in my opinion it is not leverage which matters, it is all about timing,
you enter and exit at right time you can make money with high leverage too
no no no i am not sayingyou should trade with high leverage
i am only telling you what i did..
i decided to trade with maximum leverage,
i opened an account with oanda Mini account $30
only to test my system in real time
i started my account with $30 and guess what?
i ended with huge huge profit
you can download my trade history and check for your self


I have learned soo many things from you guys soo many analysis
i am not trading gbp/jpy too much because of high volatility
but know i have decided to trade with LOW leverage
so i am here to learn and share my analysis..

please have comments on what i did was right or wrong (traded with high leverage)..


My Chart Teach Me...
Attached File(s)
File Type: zip trade history 01.zip   1.0 MB | 672 downloads
File Type: zip Trade history 02.zip   1.5 MB | 625 downloads
Don't compare your Trades with Others
  • #98,516
  • Edited 12:03am Jul 2, 2008 12:02am | Edited 12:03am
Quoting malcolmb14
sounds like you have an awesome plan. I am currently opposite to you and will short any time we come close to the 50 sma on the 4hour charts ( about 212).

Carry trades should start unwinding soon as there has been a little unwinding on some of the not so good banking news out of the UK etc etc.

Also if you can plot a 1930 dj chart over the 2008 dj .... they look exactly alike other than 2008 dj chart has about 4000 points to go down. , taking it down to 7800 ish

This has been the biggest decline in June since the Great Depression.
If my broker would offer to trade the dji, i would trade it.
A break of the yellow channel lines leads to the 161.8 fibo extension (dark blue line). Next resistance on my charts is mr. demark at 10200-10300.

What scares me, is, that my forex account is hold in $. So, to know there is (maybe) a recession coming is good to know for trading, BUT: It doesn´t help me to have much money, when a pan cake costs 1 mio $.

Last chance to buy eur/usd. we won´t see him that cheap for weeks.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: dji.gif Size: 23 KB
  • #98,517
  • Jul 2, 2008 12:05am Jul 2, 2008 12:05am
very good
and whats your system?
  • #98,518
  • Jul 2, 2008 12:10am Jul 2, 2008 12:10am
Quoting DubaiFX
Hello Traders,
my name is Muhammad Younas
wanted to share this with you guys

it took me 2 years to build a system that works
and finaly it worked.
i heard some one saying "90% of people trading in forex loose their money because they trade with high leverage"
in my opinion it is not leverage which matters, it is all about timing,
you enter and exit at right time you can make money with high leverage too
no no no i am not sayingyou should trade with high leverage
i am only telling you what i did..
i decided to trade with maximum leverage,
i opened an account with oanda Mini account $30
only to test my system in real time
i started my account with $30 and guess what?
i ended with huge huge profit
you can download my trade history and check for your self


I have learned soo many things from you guys soo many analysis
i am not trading gbp/jpy too much because of high volatility
but know i have decided to trade with LOW leverage
so i am here to learn and share my analysis..

please have comments on what i did was right or wrong (traded with high leverage)..


My Chart Teach Me...

can you tell us something about your system? thanks
  • #98,519
  • Jul 2, 2008 12:11am Jul 2, 2008 12:11am
Muhammad,

I congratulate you on taking a small amount and running it up to where it was. btw, the second zip file doesnt work.

I am interested in finding out what pairs do you trade and what is the system that you use? Are you willing to share your system with the forum?
  • #98,520
  • Jul 2, 2008 1:35am Jul 2, 2008 1:35am
Quoting fxhigh2130
Muhammad,

I congratulate you on taking a small amount and running it up to where it was. btw, the second zip file doesnt work.

I am interested in finding out what pairs do you trade and what is the system that you use? Are you willing to share your system with the forum?
Thank you..
and yes placed short know at 211.85

looking for 211.40-50
Attached File(s)
File Type: zip Trade history 02.zip   1.5 MB | 700 downloads
Don't compare your Trades with Others
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