Cash Rate Expectations: 7.25
Time of Release Tuesday at 12.30 AM (EST)
This is what they said during the last Statement when they did not raise
rates:
Inflation in Australia has been high over the past year in an
environment of limited spare capacity and earlier strong growth in
demand. In these circumstances, the Board has been seeking to restrain
demand in order to reduce inflation over time.
The evidence is that this is helping to produce a moderation in demand.
While labour market conditions to date have remained strong, indicators
of household spending have recorded subdued outcomes over recent months,
and credit expansion to both households and businesses has weakened
significantly.
forces at work, considerable uncertainty remains about the outlook for
demand and inflation. On balance, the Board’s current assessment is that
demand growth will be moderate this year. In the short term, inflation
is likely to remain relatively high, but it should decline over time
provided demand evolves as expected. Should demand not slow as expected,
or should expectations of high ongoing inflation begin to affect wage
and price setting, that outlook would need to be reviewed.
Now let us review what has changed since last times statement:
Australian Unemployment has gone up from 4.2 to 4.3
Australian Employment Change: -20,000 i.e. Australia lost 20,000 jobs
Retail Sales: -0.2 %
Australian GDP has risen : 0.6%
In Light of the above I expect the RBA to wait till they get further
information, the most critical being the CPI (q/q)
How to trade It:
I would use a reverse Techcnical trade setup out here....
I will see the price on the 1,5,15 and 30 mint charts in relation to the
SMA , if they all show a patern= up trend or downtrend, we will know if
the market is expecting a change, it is very much possible that a few
overly aggressive Hedge funds are actually looking for a rate hike and
may Bid up the Ausiie before the news.
I will place a pre-news trade against the Technicals , expecting a No
change .
If I am wrong and the RBA discideds to hike/cut rates I will be willing
to take price 40 pips from pre-realese expecting a 80-100 pip movement.
~huskins
If you want to subscribe to my analysis and trading statergy for news releases please visit : http://groups.google.ca/group/huskins
Time of Release Tuesday at 12.30 AM (EST)
This is what they said during the last Statement when they did not raise
rates:
Inflation in Australia has been high over the past year in an
environment of limited spare capacity and earlier strong growth in
demand. In these circumstances, the Board has been seeking to restrain
demand in order to reduce inflation over time.
The evidence is that this is helping to produce a moderation in demand.
While labour market conditions to date have remained strong, indicators
of household spending have recorded subdued outcomes over recent months,
and credit expansion to both households and businesses has weakened
significantly.
forces at work, considerable uncertainty remains about the outlook for
demand and inflation. On balance, the Board’s current assessment is that
demand growth will be moderate this year. In the short term, inflation
is likely to remain relatively high, but it should decline over time
provided demand evolves as expected. Should demand not slow as expected,
or should expectations of high ongoing inflation begin to affect wage
and price setting, that outlook would need to be reviewed.
Now let us review what has changed since last times statement:
Australian Unemployment has gone up from 4.2 to 4.3
Australian Employment Change: -20,000 i.e. Australia lost 20,000 jobs
Retail Sales: -0.2 %
Australian GDP has risen : 0.6%
In Light of the above I expect the RBA to wait till they get further
information, the most critical being the CPI (q/q)
How to trade It:
I would use a reverse Techcnical trade setup out here....
I will see the price on the 1,5,15 and 30 mint charts in relation to the
SMA , if they all show a patern= up trend or downtrend, we will know if
the market is expecting a change, it is very much possible that a few
overly aggressive Hedge funds are actually looking for a rate hike and
may Bid up the Ausiie before the news.
I will place a pre-news trade against the Technicals , expecting a No
change .
If I am wrong and the RBA discideds to hike/cut rates I will be willing
to take price 40 pips from pre-realese expecting a 80-100 pip movement.
~huskins
If you want to subscribe to my analysis and trading statergy for news releases please visit : http://groups.google.ca/group/huskins
