Silly Trader... When will you learn that fundamentals are the only way to trade? | Page 3 | Forex Factory

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Silly Trader... When will you learn that fundamentals are the only way to trade?

  • #41
  • Jun 25, 2008 8:43am Jun 25, 2008 8:43am
ROFL... just wait, I'll laugh if I hear "Significant risks to the downside remain" again.
  • #42
  • Jun 25, 2008 10:12am Jun 25, 2008 10:12am
Hmmm. Looks lie its hard to quantify. I guess you have to use several economic numbers like inflation and GDP. EVerybody should know that the US has been calculating inflation wrong by leaving out energy.
  • #43
  • Jun 25, 2008 10:18am Jun 25, 2008 10:18am
These are the tools we are given. I don't claim to be smarter than Barclay's analysts which is where I received the information on PPP many moons ago.
Yes GDP is a composite of inflation and growth and yes the US cooks the books on inflation as anyone can see. Saying they omit food and energy is wrong. They are showing low to no inflation including food and energy which is why people are finally in an uproar about US inflation reports. It's been a long time coming. The proof is out there for anyone to see. You don't even need a calculator anymore. Anyway this thread is getting off topic. If anyone wants to debate theories I'm sure TDion would appreciate it done off his thread.
It really is that easy.
  • #44
  • Jun 25, 2008 10:37am Jun 25, 2008 10:37am
Does anyone know any sites that calculates PPP?
  • #45
  • Jun 25, 2008 10:41am Jun 25, 2008 10:41am
You are right Bhale. It's subjective. my info came from barclays. I don't know how to get the info anymore. My contact quit at Barclays. I know a guy that sends around Citi data but they don't post PPP on their daily updates.
Sorry. I'm no help on PPP right now.
It really is that easy.
  • #46
  • Jun 25, 2008 11:02am Jun 25, 2008 11:02am
Here's a couple of pretty cool links

http://www.oanda.com/products/bigmac/bigmac.shtml

http://www.oecd.org/department/0,335..._1_1_1,00.html

learn something new each day
  • #47
  • Jun 30, 2008 3:11am Jun 30, 2008 3:11am
I was asked about this so I'll give a brief reply:

Unless the pair gets abolished, sure, it may work if the stop is properly placed.

But as an approach - too inefficient.

If it is so low-leveraged that 5000 pips are 10%, even if you buy the full 10% worth at 0.5, you need 1.0 again to make 10%.

You can make that in a month, why wait a year or two(this is assuming the 7 year long anti-USD trend chooses just this time to stop trending and reverse).

If you want to make 10% in 2 years, there are "guaranteed money" ways of compounding savings accounts that will get you that(even just having your money in Oanda doing nothing could come close). This basically comes back to that one thread where % returns were discussed.

If I were expecting just as low range returns from this game as other more passive(or safe) investments provide I wouldn't put in the time in the first place.
Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #48
  • Jun 30, 2008 5:12pm Jun 30, 2008 5:12pm
thanks sl.... good points
  • #49
  • Jun 30, 2008 5:45pm Jun 30, 2008 5:45pm
Quoting SeekingLight
I was asked about this so I'll give a brief reply:

Unless the pair gets abolished, sure, it may work if the stop is properly placed.

But as an approach - too inefficient.

If it is so low-leveraged that 5000 pips are 10%, even if you buy the full 10% worth at 0.5, you need 1.0 again to make 10%.

You can make that in a month, why wait a year or two(this is assuming the 7 year long anti-USD trend chooses just this time to stop trending and reverse).

If you want to make 10% in 2 years, there are "guaranteed money" ways of compounding savings accounts that will get you that(even just having your money in Oanda doing nothing could come close). This basically comes back to that one thread where % returns were discussed.

If I were expecting just as low range returns from this game as other more passive(or safe) investments provide I wouldn't put in the time in the first place.
I believe tdion was also looking at adding in certain points. (Maybe every 250 pips for example.) If you did it that way, once the cashing out of the positions came, it could be a huge payday......

I think it all comes down to how you go about it.

Clockwork
  • #50
  • Jun 30, 2008 6:30pm Jun 30, 2008 6:30pm
correct

i was actually considering using the "dion's pyramid" strategy, where i open new positions with profit made on previous positions.

in other words, my max risk is 10%, but as it climbs, new legs would be added and the SL would creep up from 5,000 to 4,000 etc etc

i didn't say much (if anything) about that, but it seems like an interesting play. thank cw
  • #51
  • Aug 16, 2008 11:19pm Aug 16, 2008 11:19pm
1000 pip gain on this trade call (Post #1) over the past 4 months.... w/ negligable swap....
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  • #52
  • Aug 17, 2008 8:34am Aug 17, 2008 8:34am
Quoting tdion
1000 pip gain on this trade call (Post #1) over the past 4 months.... w/ negligable swap....
TOUCHDOWN!

  • #53
  • Edited 8:09pm Aug 17, 2008 12:03pm | Edited 8:09pm
Quoting tdion
The beauty of the trade is that the pair can only fall 10,000 more pips. Before you laugh, think about it.... only 10,000 down to zero, but climb up to whatever the upper PPP bound is.

If you invert USD/JPY to JPY/USD

The value of the Yen to the USD would be roughly around 0.0090

Does this mean that the Yen has only 90 pips to go until it goes to Zero?




Take a look at the yen pairs. A pip equals 0.01 in the pair price.

But in Usd/chf, a pip is 0.0001 in the pair price.


In other words in yen pairs a pip is a cent.

In other pairs a pip is one hundred of a cent.

This just means that if a pair like USD/CHF started to approach lower values, the Broker would simply adjust the pip measure, to better gauge the value and reduce volatility.


Of couse if the USD/CHF were at 0.00010000 with the last zero as a measure of pip, this would mean that the USA already exploded, but, this also means CHF/USD 10000.00...



And by the way.

10 000 000 000 000 dollars of National Debt and rising 1 trillion per year.

50 000 000 000 000 dollars of Unfunded Liabilities (Social Security and Medicare, ready to collapse in the next 20 years)

Good Fundamentals right?

Of course the dollar will rise for now considering the interest rates expectations, and i'm not dumb to ignore the techs and dive, and of course we never know when will the collapse come, maybe 10 years from now, we never know, but once the higher interest rates return, be ready for pain, as the Ajustable Rate Mortgages reset. Banks are in pain with teaser rates, wait until they rise.

A Debt of 100% of GDP is a very high leveraged economy, or in other terms, a bubble economy. When it explodes, oh no...
  • #54
  • Aug 17, 2008 7:39pm Aug 17, 2008 7:39pm
Good point, Warper....

I guess we really don't know exactly what they would do, but you are valid.

Quoting Warper
This just means that if a pair like USD/CHF started to approach lower values, the Broker would simply adjust the pip measure, to better gauge the value and reduce volatility.
  • #55
  • Aug 17, 2008 8:07pm Aug 17, 2008 8:07pm
Quoting Warper
This just means that if a pair like USD/CHF started to approach lower values, the Broker would simply adjust the pip measure, to better gauge the value and reduce volatility.
Is it a joke between two old friend's, or my maths skills went for a beer?

Even if brokers will adjust the pip measure - his position will be lost 10$ per every 0.0001

BUT if USD will run such low, hes earnings loses and swaps will mean nothing, because he'll pay 10000$ for Diet Coke. Please tell me that I'm right...
  • #56
  • Aug 17, 2008 9:56pm Aug 17, 2008 9:56pm
that's a good point too...

Quoting Kaligula
... because he'll pay 10000$ for Diet Coke. Please tell me that I'm right...
  • #57
  • Aug 18, 2008 9:26am Aug 18, 2008 9:26am
Quoting tdion
that's a good point too...
So this must have been joke between tdion himself now laughing on our briliant points...

  • #58
  • Aug 18, 2008 1:04pm Aug 18, 2008 1:04pm
Quoting Kaligula
So this must have been joke between tdion himself now laughing on our briliant points...
The points are not brilliant, they are just reality.

Considering the rest you said, its just about leverage...

The pip measure being smaller like 0.000000001 its just a way to better gauge the value of the pair, but its the size of the lots that would also make the difference. I'm sure the broker would take care of that.

If you can't understand, well...

But yes, if the dollar collapsed, ppl holding dollar accounts would have to not only be right investing in other currencies, but also add some leverage to compensate the less purchasing power of their dollars in their account.
  • #59
  • Sep 8, 2008 2:32am Sep 8, 2008 2:32am
The trade is still moving northward...
  • #60
  • Last Post: Sep 8, 2008 5:58pm Sep 8, 2008 5:58pm
[quote=Warper;2169501]If you invert USD/JPY to JPY/USD

The value of the Yen to the USD would be roughly around 0.0090

Does this mean that the Yen has only 90 pips to go until it goes to Zero?

--------------------

Because a Yen is like a penny or a cent.
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