Another weekly head & shoulder in GBPJPY | Forex Factory

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Another weekly head & shoulder in GBPJPY

  • #1
  • First Post: Jun 16, 2008 9:06am Jun 16, 2008 9:06am
It seems there is another head & shoulders developing for GJ on the weekly chart...with todays upward move it seems to have completed the right shoulder..does it mean there will be another big fall below 200 for GJ in this week.

It's very significant cos its a good time to go long carry trade ..unless GJ cross 215 sooner .....the danger is very real.

Hope this does not sound like installing fear in traders mind..but just another perspective

Any other view and perspective to support or negate this point will be great
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  • #2
  • Jun 17, 2008 5:06am Jun 17, 2008 5:06am
Hey spider - glad to see you back, I thought we had lost you. Well this isnt as clear as the last one, personally I think its a bit of a stretch to call what you have there a head and shoulders pattern. The last time you called it price was around the 2.30 mark and I projected a target of 1.92 which seemed pretty incredible at the time - it took all the subprime mess but it got there. The target from this one is 1.75! I shudder to think what it would take to push it down there. I am glad it is not a clear pattern, the alternative is a very scary thought indeed
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  • #3
  • Jun 17, 2008 6:32am Jun 17, 2008 6:32am
Hi MAC...Thanks for your views.

I was planning to go long with the trade i had built for over a week..then suddenly my perception changed looking at the weekly chart....I just thought it cant be so easy as probably everyone believes the bottom has reached and were pyramiding there longs then boom.

I just wanted to be extra careful this time.

The 212 to 213 resistance seems very strong.....todays data will help it cross the resistance else i guess if the US data is bad..we are going down again GJ is down 170 pips already...but its a retreat from yesterday high...however whats worrying is ....it touched the resistance yesterday and now retreating down..i guess all its needs now is a spark to shoot up or down and todays data is a perfect catalyst for that
  • #4
  • Jun 20, 2008 10:51am Jun 20, 2008 10:51am
Wow..Looks like the H&S pattern is going to unfold next week, The price did not cross 114 mark and there were multiple tops to that point..

combined with bad economic data, oil price and iran isreal thing...there is 90% chance for a fall below 200 again.


Fasten your seat belts folks...you dont wanna miss this one...

Chance to make 1500 Pips by this month end
  • #5
  • Jun 27, 2008 3:30am Jun 27, 2008 3:30am
Looks like it is holding up..Folks..get ready..hope you will all catch this ride to the abyss...1000 PIPS for sure...im all In...i will be richer by 500,000 dollars with this move or loose 5000 dollar in my account..

yeah not Zimbabwean dollars or i wish the usd does not become that soon
  • #6
  • Jun 28, 2008 2:01am Jun 28, 2008 2:01am
nice pick - you caught the initial move with what looks fundamentally like another extended carry trade unwind. You could lock in some profits now and risk nothing. Anything can happen - even a rally!
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  • #7
  • Jun 28, 2008 2:32am Jun 28, 2008 2:32am
Quoting M.A.C.Doug
nice pick - you caught the initial move with what looks fundamentally like another extended carry trade unwind. You could lock in some profits now and risk nothing. Anything can happen - even a rally!

Hi MAC,

The fundamentals are all stacked against dollar, dow and US...Reading from commodity experts like Alex Wallenwien ... It is very bullish to go for Gold and bad for Dow and USD.

Gold could cross over to 1500-2000/oz in coming months.. and looking at Oil prices...there could be some spikes in GBPJPY...but a head and shoulders in weekly chart is very convincing..cos it takes months and weeks to built something like that so minor spike like it happened at the end of trading day on friday is really a technical spike than a trend i think.

I have put eggs in different baskets this time as Gold gives more PIPS than GBPJPY, since no one talks much about Gold..I go to GJ charts here

But...Gold has really some serious potential to make huge profits in the coming months.

In financial sense and safehaven websites..Dow has a serious case for a big downfall...as long as Oil goes high....markets should fall.

Anyway, as we know trading is not predicting but taking action on the uncertainty that markets throw up...im safe playing this all in..cos last time when we discussed and the markets fell..i was only half confident and did not put all in...but this time...i wanna make hay ..

Well..winning does not matter..it will all go to wine and women after all
  • #8
  • Jun 30, 2008 4:54am Jun 30, 2008 4:54am
Youuuuu....Hoooooo....


The market is going down....its all the way down below 200 as discussed earlier...
I'm pyramiding heavily as if no tommaorw....and leveraged 1:500 ..i know its crazy..but its once in lifetime thing

from 500,000 USD i m getting greedier and greedier and will make 1 million dollars if the GJ falls below 200
  • #9
  • Jun 30, 2008 6:07am Jun 30, 2008 6:07am
Quoting spiderforex
Youuuuu....Hoooooo....


The market is going down....its all the way down below 200 as discussed earlier...
I'm pyramiding heavily as if no tommaorw....and leveraged 1:500 ..i know its crazy..but its once in lifetime thing

from 500,000 USD i m getting greedier and greedier and will make 1 million dollars if the GJ falls below 200

It's not that easy

keep on dreaming. We will see a retracement in G/J for today to the upside. Hope you will be enough patient to wait it go down back to your 200 target
  • #10
  • Jun 30, 2008 12:14pm Jun 30, 2008 12:14pm
Good One

As i said...I'm not looking for daily retracements and ups and downs hourly..as you can see...I'm short since 213 area and its being over two weeks and more...and im ready to wait till the end the year to see the effect coming or else it has to break the 215 mark to get all my 5000 dollars..which i have no fear of losing...(well...im lying here..i have the fear of losing to some extent ..5000 is big amount..but still if i look to 2009 and i work, it will be covered, still i will regret what i did ..but again..im only 30..so plenty of days to make more money and forget about it..its not my life savings you know )

I would say...losing 5000 dollars is all balenced for now compared to my age and the work i do , but i will feel the pain if i loose

My chart itself is weekly not 4H or daily..i have been in that road of 4h and daily and got burned a lot

Now its more clearer and as the day passes it will become more clearer and clearer..

Dreaming is not bad...its exciting either way...but not entirely like gambling ...but still there is good rush

Good Luck
  • #11
  • Jun 30, 2008 12:32pm Jun 30, 2008 12:32pm
Quoting spiderforex
Looks like it is holding up..Folks..get ready..hope you will all catch this ride to the abyss...1000 PIPS for sure...im all In...i will be richer by 500,000 dollars with this move or loose 5000 dollar in my account..

yeah not Zimbabwean dollars or i wish the usd does not become that soon
will lose 5000 ok but will won 500,000 are you sure .... isn`t it 50,000 better
  • #12
  • Jun 30, 2008 12:46pm Jun 30, 2008 12:46pm
Quoting spiderforex
Youuuuu....Hoooooo....


The market is going down....its all the way down below 200 as discussed earlier...
I'm pyramiding heavily as if no tommaorw....and leveraged 1:500 ..i know its crazy..but its once in lifetime thing

from 500,000 USD i m getting greedier and greedier and will make 1 million dollars if the GJ falls below 200
I hope you lock in some profits playboy, or at least moved SL to B/E, and NOT change it...otherwise there is a good chance your account is going to get wiped out..and fast
  • #13
  • Jun 30, 2008 12:55pm Jun 30, 2008 12:55pm
Quoting spiderforex
Youuuuu....Hoooooo....


The market is going down....its all the way down below 200 as discussed earlier...
I'm pyramiding heavily as if no tommaorw....and leveraged 1:500 ..i know its crazy..but its once in lifetime thing

from 500,000 USD i m getting greedier and greedier and will make 1 million dollars if the GJ falls below 200
The real question here is if you actually have an account with 500k and you have it with a "broker" that allows 500:1 then you most likely won't be able to get your money out when you want to anyway (they are bucket shops if they offer you 500:1).

Open with a prime broker if you have over 500k, or even if you only have 25k or more you can open with Interactive brokers and they will insure forex accounts with Loyds of London for up to 1mm on Forex accounts.
  • #14
  • Jul 1, 2008 8:36am Jul 1, 2008 8:36am
Quoting teodosy87
will lose 5000 ok but will won 500,000 are you sure .... isn`t it 50,000 better
Yes...I'm big time bullish on Gold also, and you should...as you can read my earlier post...Gold will more likely cross 1200 mark by the end of the year...


Gold is like Jupiter...every 100 dollar move will give you 10,000 pips..so im pretty sure out of 30,000 PIPS i will be able to bag the least 50% move as i being following gold since 2005 and lost of a lot..but gained more...

GBPUSD is more likely to cross 2 and above..but the returns per pips are less cos GOLD and GJ is also have similar set up but PIP return is more.

So,...if i take Gold PIPS into account..i will very well cross 500,000 and more mark
  • #15
  • Jul 1, 2008 8:41am Jul 1, 2008 8:41am
Quoting pr0spero
I hope you lock in some profits playboy, or at least moved SL to B/E, and NOT change it...otherwise there is a good chance your account is going to get wiped out..and fast

Hi Pr0s,

Yes you are right...still i feel this time...its gonna go my way...i agree its an uncertain world but still after doing lots of research and reading....

like...Oil is 140 above...for Dow to go up now..Oil has to be below 100 to go above its high mark of 14000, which will then propel carry trade to take GJ above 220 -240 mark like we saw last year.

Looking at India and China growth story plus iran issue etc..there is no way magically the Oil will come down so soon...

Plus the dollar is burning..the fundamental are very very much against dow now...it has lost all the support..Dow could fall to arund 7500 in coming months .

I'm a big big fan of Alex Wallenwien..just google for his analysis and you will be hooked.

Good Luck.
  • #16
  • Jul 1, 2008 8:48am Jul 1, 2008 8:48am
Quoting mmccormac
The real question here is if you actually have an account with 500k and you have it with a "broker" that allows 500:1 then you most likely won't be able to get your money out when you want to anyway (they are bucket shops if they offer you 500:1).

Open with a prime broker if you have over 500k, or even if you only have 25k or more you can open with Interactive brokers and they will insure forex accounts with Loyds of London for up to 1mm on Forex accounts.
Hi MM,

Yes i have diversified my account...Dude..Im on the same boat as you...im in Forex for three years now..like you.. so its all covered..

Well...my trade calls may not be like karmo or auslanco as they make 1000's of dollars..but i firmly believe in head and shoulders pattern like last time...if you see...the calls were right and i and MAC doug had great run from 240 to below 200..


I have gone many many times wrong on calls..but head and shoulders is the pattern i recover all my money

Good Luck...I really hope we all will not miss this bus ride down
  • #17
  • Jul 16, 2008 1:44am Jul 16, 2008 1:44am
Folks...hope you are in the ride
  • #18
  • Jul 17, 2008 7:27am Jul 17, 2008 7:27am
we are..in the ride UP!

In your initial post, you said the big drop below 200s was expected "in this week". That was June 16th, one month ago. We are still at range-bound conditions: 208-209 - 213s/214s

..will this week be "this week"?

How many weeks more do the shorts have to wait for the big one?
  • #19
  • Last Post: Aug 13, 2008 11:12am Aug 13, 2008 11:12am
Hehehe..it finally went down..as we had expected...but damm...it took toooo toooo long..

I think we need a patience of a discovery channel fish in deep sea which waits waits and waits and waits and waits and waits some more to catch a prey in a blink.

I think one has to a warrior or made for forex or be extraordinary like Phelps to get a catch.

It tests PATIENCE TO THE CORE.

I had already closed all my trades in july itself and as always lost on this big wave down south..i did not expect it to streatch this much time to go down..i mean close to two months before it finally plunges.

.Im happy and sad..hopefully next wave..i would be able to catch now as usual...day job is all i have

Good Luck...But it proves one things for SURE...Head and Shoulders on long time frame..is pretty accurate but..it tests ones patience to the core.
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