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Attachments: Weekly 80/20 Setups
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Weekly 80/20 Setups

  • #361
  • Jun 27, 2008 10:12pm Jun 27, 2008 10:12pm
Closed Trade #66:
16-Jun-08 Short EUR/JPY 167.75 27-Jun-08 167.66 +9 (Closed After Hours)



Overall Results:
+3481 Cumulative Pip Total

44 Winning Trades (+151.41 pips/win)
21 Losing Trades (-151.00 pips/loss)
67.69% Win Rate
+53.55 Pips/Trade


By Pair:
GBP/JPY +298
GBP/USD +647
USD/JPY -264
USD/CHF +628
EUR/USD +1394
AUD/USD +515
NZD/USD +245
USD/CAD +161
EUR/GBP +300
EUR/JPY -362

I currently have open positions in: (new position in BOLD)

Trade No. Enter Date Direction Pair Price
#61) 09-Jun-08 Short GBP/JPY 208.38
#62) 09-Jun-08 Long EUR/GBP 0.7909
#67) 17-Jun-08 Long USD/CAD 1.0180
#68) 19-Jun-o8 Short GBP/USD 1.9704
#69) 19-Jun-08 Short NZD/USD 0.7628
#70) 24-Jun-08 Short AUD/USD 0.9565
#71) 25-Jun-08 Short EUR/USD 1.5657
#72) 26-Jun-08 Long USD/CHF 1.0286
#73) 26-Jun-08 Long USD/JPY 106.99
#74) 27-Jun-08 Long EUR/JPY 167.66
  • #362
  • Jun 28, 2008 1:51am Jun 28, 2008 1:51am
hello guys,

remember I said I would go live on Monday with a 6-week slope - well I`m chickening out and toe the line

I feel its stupid to change anything until I got a lot more experience with this system.
sorry to let you`s down.
  • #363
  • Jun 29, 2008 9:16am Jun 29, 2008 9:16am
Quoting Flyjetz
Closed Trade #66:
16-Jun-08 Short EUR/JPY 167.75 27-Jun-08 167.66 +9 (Closed After Hours)
So this is an example of a trade being closed, not by hitting a TP during market hours, but by the projected TP changing during the weekend calculations.

We were lucky to grab a few extra pips due to the fact that the weekend closing price happened to be slightly below the new projected TP value. However, we were unlucky with the interest charges on this trade.
  • #364
  • Jun 29, 2008 9:17am Jun 29, 2008 9:17am
Flyjetz,

Quote
Reversed position in EUR/JPY
Closed Trade #66:
16-Jun-08 Short EUR/JPY 167.75 27-Jun-08 167.66 +9 (Closed After Hours)

Did you manually reverse that position? If so, what tipped you off?

Just out of curiosity, what is your win/loss rate since going both ways with a trade versus only with the trend? You had mentioned that you started only with the trend and then once you started with both directions you saw big improvements. It seems that the pips lost per trade is slowly increasing on average while the pips per trade is going down. I know it is still early in the system overall but have you noticed more losing trades since placing trades in both directions?

Thanks and hope the move is going well. TLF has to be a blast.

RCWSO
  • #365
  • Jun 29, 2008 9:18am Jun 29, 2008 9:18am
I have a technical question about OANDA. Let's say the 80% projected TP for some trade is 1.5798. Would you also place your reversal trade, the short entry trade, to enter at the exact same value, 1.5798, or would you place it a couple pips higher for a little buffer? In other words, does OANDA handle the orders in the proper order, or could there be some chance of a short entry order closing a long trade, thereby causing you to miss the short entry?
  • #366
  • Jun 29, 2008 9:27am Jun 29, 2008 9:27am
mathematician,

Using Oanda are you able to close and place trades not during market hours on the weekends? Based on your comment about getting some pips before the TP and others had changed it looks as if you and Flyjetz were able to close trades for a 9 pip win after the market had closed. Is that true? I cannot do anything during closing hours from late Friday until opening on Sunday evening.

RCWSO
  • #367
  • Jun 29, 2008 4:33pm Jun 29, 2008 4:33pm
Flyjetz,

As we discussed last week I am off by several pips on some of the pairs. I will chalk that up to trading company. Although, this week I am showing the NZD/USD pair off by more than 100 pips. Anyone show the same?

Here are my levels.
80=0.7524
20=0.7405

Any ideas or thoughts on that one?

RCWSO
  • #368
  • Jun 29, 2008 9:29pm Jun 29, 2008 9:29pm
Mine are as follows:

80%
0.7662 as per indicator
0.7629 as per spreadsheet
0.7630 as per my own calculations

20%
0.7544 as per indicator
0.7509 as per spreadsheet
0.7505 as per my own calculations

That would be around 30-40 pips off for the indicator.

Which system gives you the 100 pip off?

Anyway if it's the indicator, I think that you should compare out of market conditions (that is, on saturday or early sunday) because I guess it might be taking the current candle into account.
  • #369
  • Jun 30, 2008 12:54am Jun 30, 2008 12:54am
doblece,

I am off by 100 pips using the spreadsheet. I have checked and double checked all the formulas for that pair and cannot find where it would be off by so much. It seems odd that this is the only pair where I am so significantly off from the rest.

I will continue to look through the formulas etc.

Edit: Well, searching and searching paid off. I had one cell that was not calculating correctly. Now I have much closer numbers. Thanks.

RCWSO
  • #370
  • Jun 30, 2008 6:29am Jun 30, 2008 6:29am
Quoting Rcwso
mathematician,

Using Oanda are you able to close and place trades not during market hours on the weekends? Based on your comment about getting some pips before the TP and others had changed it looks as if you and Flyjetz were able to close trades for a 9 pip win after the market had closed. Is that true? I cannot do anything during closing hours from late Friday until opening on Sunday evening.

RCWSO
Yes. With OANDA you can open/close trades and place orders at any time, 24/7. They will actually let you trade against other OANDA users after the market is closed during the weekend. Of course there is very little liquidity and so the spreads are higher during the weekend.
  • #371
  • Edited 3:54pm Jun 30, 2008 6:41am | Edited 3:54pm
Well that long-lasting GBP/JPY has finally closed. Basically it turned against me right away and the system rules dictated that I hold on to this loser. In the end it was about a 265-pip loss. That hurts, but at some points it was in the red by about 600 pips; so, -265 is a lot better than -600. Furthermore, this same flexibility and freedom of motion is what has allowed other trades to realize a profit.
  • #372
  • Jul 1, 2008 9:43am Jul 1, 2008 9:43am
I noticed something interesting this week about the AUDUSD trade, which was carried over from last week. My question is: Should we place a short entry order (at the updated 80% level) in a situation where there is already a short trade open? Look at this picture of the AUDUSD this week.

http://www.gis.net/~giokas/double.png

You can see the short entry from last week and where the TP and reversal trade were triggered this week.

Should I have placed a short entry at the 80% level? I would mean that I would have had two short trades open on this currency pair, one of them from last week, and one of them coming from a higher price from this week. Clearly it would have been profitable this time.

This means that there could be extra profit that is not being captured. If I already have a short position open and I am waiting for the TP to be hit at the 20% level, then in the even that price moves up to 80% first, I might as well trade the ride from 80% down to 20% for more profit (orange arrow). Of course this means that when price turns against you, you will have two negative trades open.

It's a double-edged sword, as many things are in the Forex. However, if we consider the methodology of this 80/20 system (project the new week's range and take any trades between 80% and 20%), then it seems to make sense to place short orders when you're already short from last week and similarly for the long situation. Any thoughts?
  • #373
  • Jul 1, 2008 6:11pm Jul 1, 2008 6:11pm
Fj would be your best bet to answer your question.

I would think it depends on the positions you have open at the time.
By taking the second short trade you might be able to balance your risks better if you are already overly geared with your open postions towards long AUD and short USD.

On the other hand if your open positions are already on balance short AUD and long USD, I wouldn`t take this trade.

Its all about MM.

Another thing you might take in consideration is the trend in the pair.
If you`re wrong in your trade but trade in the direction of the trend, the trend might bale you out.
So if I would like to take a second trade in a pair, I would be more inclined to enter a second trade long from 20% in this pair AUD/USD.
  • #374
  • Edited 10:22pm Jul 2, 2008 9:58pm | Edited 10:22pm
My internet is hooked back up. Here are the trades since I've been gone. If I can find the time, I am considering posting results of my trades for all the major crosses that I trade. I think it will be a more accurate look at a much more diversified system. Stay tuned. Also, I will try to get to all your questions.

Closed Trade #61:
09-Jun-08 Short GBP/JPY 208.38 30-Jun-08 210.46 -208

Closed Trade #67:
17-Jun-08 Long USD/CAD 1.0180 30-Jun-08 1.0196 +16

Closed Trade #70:
24-Jun-08 Short AUD/USD 0.9565 01-Jul-08 0.9525 +40

Overall Results:
+3329 Cumulative Pip Total

46 Winning Trades (+146.04 pips/win)
22 Losing Trades (-153.59 pips/loss)
67.65% Win Rate
+48.96 Pips/Trade


By Pair:
GBP/JPY +90
GBP/USD +647
USD/JPY -264
USD/CHF +628
EUR/USD +1394
AUD/USD +555
NZD/USD +245
USD/CAD +177
EUR/GBP +300
EUR/JPY -362

I currently have open positions in: (new positions in BOLD)

Trade No. Enter Date Direction Pair Price
#62) 09-Jun-08 Long EUR/GBP 0.7909
#68) 19-Jun-o8 Short GBP/USD 1.9704
#71) 25-Jun-08 Short EUR/USD 1.5657
#72) 26-Jun-08 Long USD/CHF 1.0286
#73) 26-Jun-08 Long USD/JPY 106.99
#74) 27-Jun-08 Long EUR/JPY 167.66
#75) 30-Jun-08 Long GBP/JPY 210.46
#76) 30-Jun-08 Short USD/CAD 1.0196
#77) 01-Jul-08 Long AUD/USD 0.9525
  • #375
  • Jul 2, 2008 10:07pm Jul 2, 2008 10:07pm
Quoting Rcwso
Flyjetz,



Did you manually reverse that position? If so, what tipped you off?
I manually closed this position because the weekend price fell outside the 80/20 levels of the new week, and because my broker, Oanda, allows weekend trades. I will only make this move if the price I pay (with the wide spread) is still better than the projected 80/20 levels.

Quoting Rcwso
Just out of curiosity, what is your win/loss rate since going both ways with a trade versus only with the trend? You had mentioned that you started only with the trend and then once you started with both directions you saw big improvements. It seems that the pips lost per trade is slowly increasing on average while the pips per trade is going down. I know it is still early in the system overall but have you noticed more losing trades since placing trades in both directions?

Thanks and hope the move is going well. TLF has to be a blast.

RCWSO
I think it is way too early to tell if the new idea of trading in both directions is better or worse. I haven't looked at it yet, and may get around to that later. What I can tell you is that I track my annualized return through Excel's XIRR function as I have mentioned before, and it has taken off. Currently it is at 274% annualized return since January 14th, 2008. Also, last week was one of my best ever in terms of profit banked. I've got a streak of nine straight money-positive weeks going. I won't ever go into dollar terms, but if you averaged the amount of money I've made in the first eight weeks of this streak, this last week made over seven times the average! All this, in a hectic week of trying to pack up a house! It's a beautiful thing!
  • #376
  • Jul 2, 2008 10:08pm Jul 2, 2008 10:08pm
Quoting mathematician
I have a technical question about OANDA. Let's say the 80% projected TP for some trade is 1.5798. Would you also place your reversal trade, the short entry trade, to enter at the exact same value, 1.5798, or would you place it a couple pips higher for a little buffer? In other words, does OANDA handle the orders in the proper order, or could there be some chance of a short entry order closing a long trade, thereby causing you to miss the short entry?
I've always placed my limit orders at the same price as my TP's. Oanda has yet to miss an order when a TP is hit. In my experience, it has been instantaneous.
  • #377
  • Jul 2, 2008 10:11pm Jul 2, 2008 10:11pm
Quoting mathematician
Well that long-lasting GBP/JPY has finally closed. Basically it turned against me right away and the system rules dictated that I hold on to this loser. In the end it was about a 265-pip loss. That hurts, but at some points it was in the red by about 600 pips; so, -265 is a lot better than -600. Furthermore, this same flexibility and freedom of motion is what has allowed other trades to realize a profit.
You only lost 265 pips on GBP/JPY? I lost 597. How did you manage that?

EDIT: OOPS! Nevermind! I see that I vastly overstated my loss! Thank God! I'll now be going back to edit my post.
  • #378
  • Jul 2, 2008 10:14pm Jul 2, 2008 10:14pm
Quoting mathematician
I noticed something interesting this week about the AUDUSD trade, which was carried over from last week. My question is: Should we place a short entry order (at the updated 80% level) in a situation where there is already a short trade open? Look at this picture of the AUDUSD this week.

http://www.gis.net/~giokas/double.png

You can see the short entry from last week and where the TP and reversal trade were triggered this week.

Should I have placed a short entry at the 80% level? I would mean that I would have had two short trades open on this currency pair, one of them from last week, and one of them coming from a higher price from this week. Clearly it would have been profitable this time.

This means that there could be extra profit that is not being captured. If I already have a short position open and I am waiting for the TP to be hit at the 20% level, then in the even that price moves up to 80% first, I might as well trade the ride from 80% down to 20% for more profit (orange arrow). Of course this means that when price turns against you, you will have two negative trades open.

It's a double-edged sword, as many things are in the Forex. However, if we consider the methodology of this 80/20 system (project the new week's range and take any trades between 80% and 20%), then it seems to make sense to place short orders when you're already short from last week and similarly for the long situation. Any thoughts?
I wouldn't have a problem with this approach. As long as doubling up on a trade also decreased your overall exposure risk to a currency you might be overexposed to.
  • #379
  • Jul 2, 2008 11:26pm Jul 2, 2008 11:26pm
Quoting Flyjetz
You only lost 265 pips on GBP/JPY? I lost 597. How did you manage that?

EDIT: OOPS! Nevermind! I see that I vastly overstated my loss! Thank God! I'll now be going back to edit my post.
Hmm...maybe I made a mistake. I lost 265, you lost 208. I wonder how we have such a difference, especially since we're both using OANDA.

I went short at 207.92 on June 9 04:21:54 2008 EDT
Then it his my TP at 210.57 on June 30 03:10:59 2008 EDT
  • #380
  • Jul 2, 2008 11:45pm Jul 2, 2008 11:45pm
is there an indicator out there that would calculate the slope quite efficiently?

good to have you back Fj and hope you/your family are enjoying your new surroundings
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