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$70 to 20K Sprint 31 replies

Is double your money in a short time possible? (Highrisk=Highreturn ). Let's discuss! 50 replies

Going long term (6 weeks abouts), Short on AUD/USD 1 reply

Is it possible to make 20k to 70k in short time (7 weeks)?

  • #41
  • Jun 27, 2008 8:01pm Jun 27, 2008 8:01pm
Quoting tdion
where do realists fit in?

that with no definable edge, a person can get lucky for a few months, then do poorly for a few.... all the while forking out swaps and spreads....

and that a person can spend their life searching for an edge, and never get one...

these are the things to think about when approaching this endeavor... that reading Forex Made Easy or going to Baby Pips won't guarantee a single green pip.

ps) the thing about losers hanging out w/ losers and winners w/ winners.... to me, its about who the SMARTEST traders are and how lucky they get....
I agree to a point, however they only get lucky to find that edge because of their initial motivation which usually stems from a driving force, that driving force comes from positive attitude and the pursuit to reach your goals. Without this one would not even have a chance
  • #42
  • Jun 27, 2008 8:14pm Jun 27, 2008 8:14pm
Quoting tdion
well paul rotter made millions over and over daytrading...

in and out every few seconds....

he had a horrible losing streak and almost called it quits, but came back and hit another profitable streak.


whether or not liquidity is ever a concern is almost comical.... your best traders have lucky and unlucky periods in spite of their tactics, intuition, and technology they use.... so even if 250% every few months is possible, what makes you think YOU are going to do that?

i mean, it reminds me of a girl i used to work with, saying she was going to be a billionaire because oprah winfrey was one. give me a break.
Paul Rotter is only one trader who happens to be profitable. The guys who are making large consistent profits keep their names out of the headlines and don't always run hedge funds.

I personally know a trader who has averaged 20pts per day on the e-mini S&P since its inception (1998). He moved here from China back in the 1960s when he was 20 years old. He started out as a horse jockey and eventually saved up enough money to buy a seat on the Vancouver Stock Exchange about 30 years ago, and has been trading ever since. His net worth is well over 9 figures. He owns a very large house in Vancouver and keeps to himself.

BTW, his typical position size on the e-mini is 100 contracts. That's 100 contracts x 20pts x $50/pt which equals $100k per day. He also trades the German Bund.

As far as the lucky/unlucky periods go, which you claim all traders have, it doesn't appear that he has streaks like this. I watched over his shoulder for a week just to catch a glimpse of how he does it. I also examined his trading records going back to 1998. He has NEVER had a losing day. His worst day was +8 pts back in 2002 on very low volatility.

How does he do it? I have no idea. He's definitely a savant and is extremely in tune with the market. He watches time and sales and has a feel for the tape. When I asked him to explain to me why he chose to enter a certain trade, he really couldn't come up with an answer.

We know that 1% of traders make 99% of the profits, so it isn't very hard to believe that there are others like him out there, albeit very few.
  • #43
  • Jun 27, 2008 8:49pm Jun 27, 2008 8:49pm
Quoting tdion
well paul rotter made millions over and over daytrading...
Aw, come one... read his interview again, tdion. I do not contradict whether he made millions or not. I do not know his accountant. But claiming to trade 150,000 to 250,000 roundturn on three markets every day, and working only 5 hours a day?? That's 16 to 28 trades a second! And don't make any assumption that it was 150,000 to 250,000 "contracts". It's written: "...150,000 rt/day, sometimes 250,000 rt/day..." I was a business journalist over ten years ago. If I made a fatal mistake like that, believe me, my editor would skinned me alive before publishing that outrageous interview (even then, my skinless body couldn't force him to publish it anyway). And to think that I lived in a bankrupt third world country. I have to admit, I want to be rich through forex, too. That's one of the reason I read his interview. If my calculation states that he took 10 second roundturn trades everyday, I would believe him. Even 5 second roundturn trades, I would. 16 to 28 trades per second? You've got to be kidding.
  • #44
  • Jun 27, 2008 8:54pm Jun 27, 2008 8:54pm
Quoting aegis
a trader who has averaged 20pts per day on the e-mini S&P ... his typical position size on the e-mini is 100 contracts. That's 100 contracts x 20pts x $50/pt which equals $100k per day... His worst day was +8 pts back in 2002 on very low volatility.. He's definitely a savant and is extremely in tune with the market. He watches time and sales and has a feel for the tape. When I asked him to explain to me why he chose to enter a certain trade, he really couldn't come up with an answer.
This I can believe. He maybe one in a million, but hey, I guess once in a while, in every field of life, there's one or two ver exceptional guy who made it over the top.
  • #45
  • Jun 28, 2008 5:22am Jun 28, 2008 5:22am
Quoting aegis
........
How does he do it? I have no idea. He's definitely a savant and is extremely in tune with the market. He watches time and sales and has a feel for the tape. When I asked him to explain to me why he chose to enter a certain trade, he really couldn't come up with an answer.
........
Aegis, no disrespect intended, and no doubt you're making your statement in good faith, but this is incredibly difficult to believe. How can somebody not be able to explain what they are doing, and yet not have a single losing day in 10 years?

There has to be a rationale behind a successful trading approach; otherwise performance can only be the result of lucky guesswork. If he's a technical trader, then he can only be looking at chart patterns, which can ultimately be translated into a universally usable (even if very complex) mathematical rule set, simply by looking at enough setup examples. Likewise with his exits. If he uses fundamentals, similar logic applies. Beyond that, we have astrology and, well um .....

I'll never be able to hit a golf ball like Tiger Woods, or paint like Picasso, simply because I don't have that natural gift. But trading is a business-like activity, which involves the use of a plan, and making rational decisions, in systematic fashion. I simply can't see how somebody can "feel" the market. At the very least, there has to be some kind of pattern matching, even if it involves subconscious recall. If we were to overlay his last (say) 500 setups, there must be some discernable pattern, otherwise - pure guesswork aside - what is the source of his inspiration?

Secondly, I'm curious as to how many trades he places during the course of a day. Obviously if it's only one, then he has a 100% win rate, over 10 years (approx 2,500 market days), i.e. not a single loss in 2,500 trades, which is very hard to believe. So I can only assume that he is making several trades each day, has an edge that somehow overcomes the intraday noise, and has found a broker that allows trading the S&P mini with virtually nil transaction costs.

I guess there's one other possibility: he's somehow managed to discover an arbitrage-like inequity that virtually nobody else knows about..... but, especially as we're talking about a massively traded index, this is equally difficult to grasp. (Well, I guess that would be a good reason why he is "unable" to explain his method to anybody?)

Anyway, very interesting...... thanks for sharing.

David
  • #46
  • Jun 28, 2008 5:59am Jun 28, 2008 5:59am
Yes it is possible to make 20K to 70K in 7 weeks provided you have the right training. Double up your account every month or two months is also possible !.

You see trading is a business. Not gambling arena. Like other business you need to have proper training, enough experiences, right attitude, good planning, sufficient tools etc to be successful. Not everyone can open a business and become successful businessman because there are thing outside his control and things that within his control in order to be successful.

Same with forex. Not everyone can become successful trader but you can become the 2% of those http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/dollar.gifsuccessful one.
  • #47
  • Jun 28, 2008 8:10am Jun 28, 2008 8:10am
why not ?
  • #48
  • Jun 28, 2008 9:02am Jun 28, 2008 9:02am
Quoting hanover
Aegis, no disrespect intended, and no doubt you're making your statement in good faith, but this is incredibly difficult to believe. How can somebody not be able to explain what they are doing, and yet not have a single losing day in 10
I already explained to you his strategy. When asked to quantify his methodology in simple terms, it could not be done. There was nothing mechanical about it and was completely visual. He is a tape reader, which is something most retail forex trader have no clue about.

As far as the number of trades, he averaged 10-15 per day on the ES. Most of his trading was done on a 10-minute chart.

BTW, most futures brokers allow for you to negotiate your commissions if you are trading high volume so his transaction costs were quite low.
  • #49
  • Jun 28, 2008 3:51pm Jun 28, 2008 3:51pm
everything rational can be reduced to numbers (and consequently rules,) otherwise it is simply randomness.

Quoting aegis
I already explained to you his strategy. When asked to quantify his methodology in simple terms, it could not be done. There was nothing mechanical about it and was completely visual. He is a tape reader, which is something most retail forex trader have no clue about.
  • #50
  • Jun 28, 2008 3:53pm Jun 28, 2008 3:53pm
I am sick and tired of hearing this claim:

Quoting ctnie2143
Double up your account every month or two months is also possible !.
Give just ONE example of a person that does this.... otherwise, it is a myth and should never be considered fact.
  • #51
  • Jun 28, 2008 5:42pm Jun 28, 2008 5:42pm
Quote
Give just ONE example of a person that does this.... otherwise, it is a myth and should never be considered fact.

ROFL. It's possible to double your account, of course it is, it's also possible to blow it out completely. I could probably risk 10% per trade and double my account inside of 2 months. Of course less than a year later I'd be re-funding it... lol, and probably would have blown thru a few more just getting to that point.

Question isn't whether a person can double their money, it's how long they can stay in the game trying to. Anyone can roll dice and get lucky, but it takes skill to survive thousands of rolls.

Quote
I already explained to you his strategy. When asked to quantify his methodology in simple terms, it could not be done. There was nothing mechanical about it and was completely visual. He is a tape reader, which is something most retail forex trader have no clue about.

Recently read a book on tape reading. You know what most take readers do? It's exactly what most intra-day traders do, they look for price patterns around critical numbers (openings, closes, highs, lows, pivot points, etc) and trade those fluctuations. There isn't any magic to it, and it's quite quantifiable. There's this whole burst-pullback-pause-burst pattern that seems to be decent at predicting breakouts, I'm quite sure these elements could be put to numbers.
  • #52
  • Jun 28, 2008 5:50pm Jun 28, 2008 5:50pm
of course it can be done. the point was, doing it every month or two is the myth....

Quoting Rabid
ROFL. It's possible to double your account, of course it is, it's also possible to blow it out completely. I could probably risk 10% per trade and double my account inside of 2 months. Of course less than a year later I'd be re-funding it... lol, and probably would have blown thru a few more just getting to that point.
  • #53
  • Jun 28, 2008 6:04pm Jun 28, 2008 6:04pm
Of course it can be done!Why not why do some people think if they can`t then nobody can?So people says that this is impossible because they haven`t seen a prove but ... why should someone has to prove this?I do think that there is a lot of people that REALLY know what they do and double their acc not only for 1 month.Wow and this most people ask "could this be done could that be done ...what they need some prove that could be done?Stop asking these questions and focus yuorself in trading and you will se IF YOU COULD do it which is most important

Happy trading
  • #54
  • Jun 28, 2008 6:10pm Jun 28, 2008 6:10pm
(yawn)

standard response.... and after 1000 responses just like this one, we have as much proof of it being possible as we do that Bigfoot exists.

let me give you FACTS.... i live in the real world, where fact is the only thing that matters. one of the most famous traders, richard dennis, made millions trading, but then lost nearly 80% during a losing streak. i think you can call that LUCK. and when we look at traders making 250%/month consistently, (if we have a brain in our head) we ask whether they are exploiting a market weakness or are simply lucky.

Quoting teodosy87
Of course it can be done!Why not why do some people think if they can`t then nobody can?So people says that this is impossible because they haven`t seen a prove but ... why should someone has to prove this?I do think that there is a lot of people that REALLY know what they do and double their acc not only for 1 month.Wow and this most people ask "could this be done could that be done ...what they need some prove that could be done?Stop asking these questions and focus yuorself in trading and you will se IF YOU COULD do it which is most important

Happy trading
  • #55
  • Jun 28, 2008 6:25pm Jun 28, 2008 6:25pm
Quoting tdion
I am sick and tired of hearing this claim:



Give just ONE example of a person that does this.... otherwise, it is a myth and should never be considered fact.
Yes there are living examples of people successful in trading. You need to be smart to know one because they can outsmart others in this business. Warren Buffett, George Soros and many more....who prefer not to be recognised....he maybe your next door neighbour !.
  • #56
  • Jun 28, 2008 6:31pm Jun 28, 2008 6:31pm
maybe i should have caveated my post..... let's exclude billionaires. soros had 12 billion in the trade where he broke the bank of england.

i'm talking about normal, everyday people with accounts less than 100,000.

it's easy to believe that there are everyday people making 250% every few months... but what makes us think that there are? i haven't seen any evidence anywhere of people doing it, so it's like believing in santa claus.

PS) let me tell you what i have seen:

  1. countless website promoting exotic beach houses and sports cars (with testomonials from Paul P. and George H., who i bet are figments of the snake oil salemens' imagination!)

  1. countless threads like "i blew my 5K account" and "HEEEELP!"

  1. an mql trading competition where 10 out of thousands of participants make a profit, and are glorified like the lottery winner or publisher's clearing house winner (see a pattern there?)

  1. lots of people just like you, speculating that it can be done, but with no evidence

  1. countless collective2 forex systems that tank after winning a few hundered percent

hey, i'm not saying that it can't be done. but if i were a lawyer, i have just made a nice case of evidence against it... it's time to see some evidence FOR it.

Quoting ctnie2143
Yes there are living examples of people successful in trading. You need to be smart to know one because they can outsmart others in this business. Warren Buffett, George Soros and many more....who prefer not to be recognised....he maybe your next door neighbour !.
  • #57
  • Jun 28, 2008 7:25pm Jun 28, 2008 7:25pm
Quote
of course it can be done. the point was, doing it every month or two is the myth....

Oh, well... there's probably been 1 person in the entire history of the world that's managed to luck into a streak like that. But yea, it's not something that's going to happen frequently and we sure as heck shouldn't plan on it.

Quote
hey, i'm not saying that it can't be done. but if i were a lawyer, i have just made a nice case of evidence against it... it's time to see some evidence FOR it.

LOL, good luck w/ that. Whether it can be done or not, IMO, isn't really important. I think chasing ultra-high returns means taking a lot of extra risk. I prefer to take less risk, and would be extremely happy with a 40% return per year over time.

Most people that need really high returns do so because they are coming in underfunded and have dreams of the high life starting with a $100 investment. I suspect that's a failing proposition more times than not.
  • #58
  • Jun 28, 2008 8:08pm Jun 28, 2008 8:08pm
Quoting tdion
everything rational can be reduced to numbers (and consequently rules,) otherwise it is simply randomness.
And why do you assume the market is rational?

Of course, there are rules for any strategy. However, these happen to be very general and open to interpretation. The market is not a machine.

Are you familiar with the famous statistician William Edwards Deming?

He once said, "The most important things cannot be measured". The issues that are most important, long term, cannot be measured in advance. But they might be among the factors that an individual or group is measuring, just not understood as most important at the time.
  • #59
  • Edited 9:29pm Jun 28, 2008 8:14pm | Edited 9:29pm
let me clarify

i have been the biggest FF proponent that the market is random/irrational.... until we have evidence showing otherwise

my statement regarding "anything rational can be reduced to numbers" was directed at the savant tape reader a few posts earlier, where he is claimed to profit from a method that can't be described as a set of rules. the guy is making tons of profit based on reading tapes, but the poster made it sound like intuition.

i'm sorry, but intuition doesn't cut it. even if the guy is interpreting a tape, there must be some thresholds that are met to trigger buys and sells.... otherwise he is a lucky trader.

again, i am in agreement with you, aegis.

Quoting aegis
And why do you assume the market is rational?

Of course, there are rules for any strategy. However, these happen to be very general and open to interpretation. The market is not a machine.

Are you familiar with the famous statistician William Edwards Deming?

He once said, "The most important things cannot be measured". The issues that are most important, long term, cannot be measured in advance. But they might be among the factors that an individual or group is measuring, just not understood as most important at the time.
  • #60
  • Jun 28, 2008 9:03pm Jun 28, 2008 9:03pm
Quote
i have been the biggest FF proponent that the market is random/irrational.... until we have evidence showing otherwise

Easy proof... pull up the EURUSD or the GBPUSD, pull up standard pivot points and watch how often price stalls or reverses at one of the R or S levels intra-day. It's a case of running w/ the herd, big money does it and price often follows these levels. Add in pivot mid-points and you'll be hard-pressed to deny the accuracy, it happens far more often than randomness would dictate.

The thing about random is that random follows standard deviations. There's a mean, variation, 1st, 2nd, 3rd, etc, standard deviations. On any given random sample there needs to be a mean, variation from the mean and deviations that quantify the variation. 3 standard deviations should account for approx 99.73% of all activity in a sample.

Based on that we should be able to calculate historical levels of volatility, and arrive at the statistical approximation of how often these levels should occur. The standard Black-Scholes of option pricing does this (and has some well-known flaws). But yet extremes of volatility occur far more often than the standard deviation model would allow. Events that should only happen once in a lifetime have a way of happening every 10 years. This simple math disproves the random model hypothesis.

My hypothesis for why this occurs is the human the human tendency to continue trends out of fear or greed, which (IMO) is in-essence the driving factor in all trend persistency.

Never-the-less trends are far more persistent than a random model would allow. They exceed regular variance, which is enough to prove the random model is, at best, incomplete... at worst, completely wrong.

Quote
i'm sorry, but intuition doesn't cut it. even if the guy is interpretting a tape, there must be some thresholds that are met to trigger buys and sells.... otherwise he is a lucky trader.

Nod, problem is not everyone is good at explaining what they do. It might be a subconscious thing, following a series of rules they've never bothered to quantify. Doesn't mean it can't be quantified and that the rules can't be listed, but not everyone is good at explaining what they do.
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