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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #97,601
  • Jun 27, 2008 2:46pm Jun 27, 2008 2:46pm
Quoting Petefaders
I didn't reclinize the avatar is this some thing that atract pips or what, I'm in short the gbp/jpy talk to me
The Chonchy
  • #97,602
  • Jun 27, 2008 2:49pm Jun 27, 2008 2:49pm
Can we leave him alone now and stop this childish bickering please for the love of God and get back to the reason we visit this forum.
  • #97,603
  • Jun 27, 2008 2:50pm Jun 27, 2008 2:50pm
Quoting rmrf
And I dont like to go over 5% total margin used, so all my margin is tied up.
weather or not I took the trade is really immaterial.

The point remains a matter of fact that I acted as if that 2min Doji was significant and the majority laughed. And now the fact reamins that,
that doji was significant and it was a reversal that went the other way at least 100 pips in what 4 hours?

Ya, it happens on a 2 min chart before revealed on a 3 min chart.

Ridicule, let me take some in your place. Have started collecting gopher longs this am at 2.0220 targeting 2.3350 with a cpl good banking points along the way



guess i'' have to wait till next week to close euro and cable shorts
"Millionaires don't use astrology, billionaires do"
  • #97,604
  • Jun 27, 2008 2:59pm Jun 27, 2008 2:59pm
Quoting rmrf
You are calling for a reversal based on a not-even-closed-yet-weekly
candlestick? Good luck with that, things are still looking pretty bullish long term on the weekly chart just based on the trend alone.
ANything you want to tell us any hard data to support a reversal,
other than the soon to close weekly candle?
err look at 4 hour ... this is the 1st time this MONTH that we we have remained under the 50 sma on the 4 hour . Unless this is broken i think we go down from here with retracement rallies along the way.

We did retest the 4 hour 50 sma today at 212 ( it was a wonderful short for a few pips). A strong supporting line should be re-tested to allow more movement to the downside.

Also note that there appears to be some unwinding of carry trades in the works. The euro indexes did not go down that much last night but gbpjpy and gbpchf both had large movements to the downside.

Volatility is picking up in the last 2 days , this is an indication that a possible top is in as max volatility occurs at tops and bottoms of moves.

There are some very valid reasons that GBPJPy may head down to daily 50 sma at 207ish next week.

This from a former 220 bull if broke 214......
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #97,605
  • Jun 27, 2008 3:01pm Jun 27, 2008 3:01pm
Quoting OrionsWay
Ya, it happens on a 2 min chart before revealed on a 3 min chart.

Ridicule, let me take some in your place. Have started collecting gopher longs this am at 2.0220 targeting 2.3350 with a cpl good banking points along the way



guess i'' have to wait till next week to close euro and cable shorts

ok I'll bite

you are doing what !!!!

lol .....

have a great weekend
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #97,606
  • Jun 27, 2008 3:05pm Jun 27, 2008 3:05pm
And have more than one reason supporting my actions?

I also am not here to argue.

Quoting Petefaders
Actually, you said it was becauce you didn't want a conflict..maybe you should edit that post or something...lol
  • #97,607
  • Jun 27, 2008 3:16pm Jun 27, 2008 3:16pm
Quoting malcolmb14
ok I'll bite

you are doing what !!!!

lol .....

have a great weekend
Hahaa u too mate!!!!
"Millionaires don't use astrology, billionaires do"
  • #97,608
  • Jun 27, 2008 3:17pm Jun 27, 2008 3:17pm
Quoting OrionsWay
Ya, it happens on a 2 min chart before revealed on a 3 min chart.

Ridicule, let me take some in your place. Have started collecting gopher longs this am at 2.0220 targeting 2.3350 with a cpl good banking points along the way



guess i'' have to wait till next week to close euro and cable shorts
I think it is time to get Uranus taken care of.


hehehehehe
kidding
  • #97,609
  • Jun 27, 2008 3:19pm Jun 27, 2008 3:19pm
It is a bit unclear to me whether todays moves were just end of quarter book keeping profit taking or an actual risk aversion in the early stages.

I need more clarity.
  • #97,610
  • Jun 27, 2008 3:25pm Jun 27, 2008 3:25pm
Quoting malcolmb14
err look at 4 hour ... this is the 1st time this MONTH that we we have remained under the 50 sma on the 4 hour . Unless this is broken i think we go down from here with retracement rallies along the way.

We did retest the 4 hour 50 sma today at 212 ( it was a wonderful short for a few pips). A strong supporting line should be re-tested to allow more movement to the downside.

Also note that there appears to be some unwinding of carry trades in the works. The euro indexes did not go down that much last night but gbpjpy and gbpchf both had large movements to the downside.

Volatility is picking up in the last 2 days , this is an indication that a possible top is in as max volatility occurs at tops and bottoms of moves.

There are some very valid reasons that GBPJPy may head down to daily 50 sma at 207ish next week.

This from a former 220 bull if broke 214......
Tell 'em M!
  • #97,611
  • Edited 3:54pm Jun 27, 2008 3:36pm | Edited 3:54pm
but it IS unclear. the move stopped at the right moment.
look at this daily chart. i was waiting for a clear break on the rsi trendline along with a cci breakout on the other side of 0, which in this situation (bearish divergence on all indicators) would mean a nice drop to test the weekly trendline at 205 area (the second one on the chart).
it didn't happen. so... let's have a nice weekend, because there's nothing else to do but wait to see what next week will bring.

Quoting ovaforty
It is a bit unclear to me whether todays moves were just end of quarter book keeping profit taking or an actual risk aversion in the early stages.

I need more clarity.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gjd.gif Size: 25 KB
Nihil Sine Deo.
  • #97,612
  • Jun 27, 2008 3:36pm Jun 27, 2008 3:36pm
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: The Big Picture.jpg Size: 115 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: The Big Picture2.jpg Size: 116 KB
Butt kissers suck!
  • #97,613
  • Jun 27, 2008 3:39pm Jun 27, 2008 3:39pm
I don't think she can break down below 209.50 despite that nasty looking Doji on the weekly which screams down.

Quoting malcolmb14
err look at 4 hour ... this is the 1st time this MONTH that we we have remained under the 50 sma on the 4 hour . Unless this is broken i think we go down from here with retracement rallies along the way.

We did retest the 4 hour 50 sma today at 212 ( it was a wonderful short for a few pips). A strong supporting line should be re-tested to allow more movement to the downside.

Also note that there appears to be some unwinding of carry trades in the works. The euro indexes did not go down that much last night but gbpjpy and gbpchf both had large movements to the downside.

Volatility is picking up in the last 2 days , this is an indication that a possible top is in as max volatility occurs at tops and bottoms of moves.

There are some very valid reasons that GBPJPy may head down to daily 50 sma at 207ish next week.

This from a former 220 bull if broke 214......
  • #97,614
  • Jun 27, 2008 3:39pm Jun 27, 2008 3:39pm
Quoting ovaforty
It is a bit unclear to me whether todays moves were just end of quarter book keeping profit taking or an actual risk aversion in the early stages.

I need more clarity.
me too. i know what it all looks like, i know what everyone is saying, and I don't believe a word of it. I don't believe me. i'm going to put one of orions old charts up for awhile as my desktop picture for the weekend until it all becomes clear again.

it's a daily geppy chart from mid april showing all the downside support. it initially caused me to have a flashback. i'd repost it with his permission, as it actually has played out very well. clarity will come.
FUBAR...
  • #97,615
  • Jun 27, 2008 3:40pm Jun 27, 2008 3:40pm
Quoting malcolmb14
err look at 4 hour ... this is the 1st time this MONTH that we we have remained under the 50 sma on the 4 hour . Unless this is broken i think we go down from here with retracement rallies along the way.

We did retest the 4 hour 50 sma today at 212 ( it was a wonderful short for a few pips). A strong supporting line should be re-tested to allow more movement to the downside.

Also note that there appears to be some unwinding of carry trades in the works. The euro indexes did not go down that much last night but gbpjpy and gbpchf both had large movements to the downside.

Volatility is picking up in the last 2 days , this is an indication that a possible top is in as max volatility occurs at tops and bottoms of moves.

There are some very valid reasons that GBPJPy may head down to daily 50 sma at 207ish next week.

This from a former 220 bull if broke 214......
I think next week all GBP pairs would likely be pulled down as because of GBP weakness. Geppy would likely trade lower not because of Yen strong. The Yen is still very weak especially with current higher oil price.
Here, I pasted an article regarding BOE King comment: While certain comments from BoE King this week were perceived as hawkish, the governor stated that the central bank "needs to avoid a slowdown that is so pronounced that it would pull inflation down, not just to the target, but below" suggesting that the BoE will most probably leave rates on hold as long as they can. As such we would expect to see more GBP weakness ahead.
  • #97,616
  • Jun 27, 2008 4:05pm Jun 27, 2008 4:05pm
Too many long wicks on the last 2 daily candles. Lots of indecision.

Monthly chart has one more trading day to complete. Looks like 3 crows bullish pattern to me.
edit: Price is trading above the 5 sma high and the brown 55 sma.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: geppy monthly.gif Size: 28 KB
  • #97,617
  • Jun 27, 2008 4:07pm Jun 27, 2008 4:07pm
Good afternoon traders, wish all a good weekend, enjoy with your family and friends, thanks for all the good analisys you all post here, I have learn more than all the books I read, if you would fight a little less, it will be the best tread of the FF
The Chonchy
  • #97,618
  • Jun 27, 2008 4:16pm Jun 27, 2008 4:16pm
Quoting ovaforty
Too many long wicks on the last 2 daily candles. Lots of indecision.

Monthly chart has one more trading day to complete. Looks like 3 crows bullish pattern to me.
edit: Price is trading above the 5 sma high and the brown 55 sma.
you would be right, IF the lower part of the body of the second bullish
candle, would be lower and reach into the body of the first bullish candle.
Even when I zoom in maximum, i can not decide if it is so.

In bullish market in western terms this pattern
we call "Three White Soldiers"

http://www.candlesticker.com/Cs63.asp

Hussin will have a look at end of month.
  • #97,619
  • Jun 27, 2008 5:02pm Jun 27, 2008 5:02pm
Quoting peaches
you would be right, IF the lower part of the body of the second bullish
candle, would be lower and reach into the body of the first bullish candle.
Even when I zoom in maximum, i can not decide if it is so.

In bullish market in western terms this pattern
we call "Three White Soldiers"

http://www.candlesticker.com/Cs63.asp

Hussin will have a look at end of month.
one more day of trading and we will know, right?
  • #97,620
  • Jun 27, 2008 5:36pm Jun 27, 2008 5:36pm
Intresting developments in geppy, will post analysis later this weekend.
"Millionaires don't use astrology, billionaires do"
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