Weekly 80/20 Setups

Quoting mathematician

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Thanks for the data.
I see that EUR/JPY is underperforming...that wily Yen!
EURHUF, did you say before that you're not trading this because of interest charges...or you just don't trade it.

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Quoting yonnie

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hi guys,

I feel that the 20-week slope is too long to react to changes in the trends for currencies like JPY, GBP and USD in the last 3 months.

It has been said before that it doesn`t matter really much how to calculate the entries and I`m going life next week with a 6-week slope - long enough to overcome a few weeks of trend deviation and short enough to turn with a new trend direction.

Losses: having a postion open for an above average period of time will cost you money in lost opportunity.

I think after say a year of experience with trading this system, we could come to an economical cut off point where we take the loss with a stop loss of say 1 1/2 daily ATR and move on to use that money for a new trade.
to be in a trade for 5-7 weeks might mean we`re missing out on 1-2 profitable trades.

and the time WILL come that a trade is running away and we`re a 1000 pips in the red, so all the more reason to have a well thought out stop loss.

also we could then plan the trades with more confidence knowing the maximum we could lose and incorporate our money management accordingly.

take care

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Quoting yonnie

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hi guys,

I feel that the 20-week slope is too long to react to changes in the trends for currencies like JPY, GBP and USD in the last 3 months.

It has been said before that it doesn`t matter really much how to calculate the entries and I`m going life next week with a 6-week slope - long enough to overcome a few weeks of trend deviation and short enough to turn with a new trend direction.

Losses: having a postion open for an above average period of time will cost you money in lost opportunity.

I think after say a year of experience with trading this system, we could come to an economical cut off point where we take the loss with a stop loss of say 1 1/2 daily ATR and move on to use that money for a new trade.
to be in a trade for 5-7 weeks might mean we`re missing out on 1-2 profitable trades.

and the time WILL come that a trade is running away and we`re a 1000 pips in the red, so all the more reason to have a well thought out stop loss.

also we could then plan the trades with more confidence knowing the maximum we could lose and incorporate our money management accordingly.

take care

Ignored

Quoting yonnie

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hi guys,

I feel that the 20-week slope is too long to react to changes in the trends for currencies like JPY, GBP and USD in the last 3 months.

It has been said before that it doesn`t matter really much how to calculate the entries and I`m going life next week with a 6-week slope - long enough to overcome a few weeks of trend deviation and short enough to turn with a new trend direction.

Losses: having a postion open for an above average period of time will cost you money in lost opportunity.

I think after say a year of experience with trading this system, we could come to an economical cut off point where we take the loss with a stop loss of say 1 1/2 daily ATR and move on to use that money for a new trade.
to be in a trade for 5-7 weeks might mean we`re missing out on 1-2 profitable trades.

and the time WILL come that a trade is running away and we`re a 1000 pips in the red, so all the more reason to have a well thought out stop loss.

also we could then plan the trades with more confidence knowing the maximum we could lose and incorporate our money management accordingly.

take care

Ignored

Quoting Arnold49

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I know I'm repeating myself but this is where anti hedging comes in,
in the above example you would have opened the at the same price but with a 100 pip SL, when this was hit (around 0.9460) you would have waited for the price to go down to 0.9410 then place a buy stop at 0.9460.

the out come would have been the same as if you were using the original rules- but no drawdown

steve.

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Quoting Flyjetz

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Yonnie,

I'm very interested to see how your six week average works out. I think six weeks may be okay to determine your slope, but I'd caution you from using only six weeks of data for candle size. Just one crazy week in only six data points will give you an inaccurate estimate on average candle size.

I'm not crazy about the idea of limiting this system with stop losses. It's true that losing trades take up time which is lost opportunity. However, like I showed in my last post, all trades in this system (winners and losers) close out after a nice runup. When you choose to use Stop Losses, the reverse is true. Just my opinion. Feel free to tweak the system to your own desires and let us know how it goes!

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Quoting yonnie

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what about if I`ll give an weekly P/L update on the 10 pairs Fj is tracking here, but with a 6-week slope?

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Quoting swingtrade65

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Hi ,

I have been reading this thread and when the thought came up about how to set a "fail safe" in case of the disaster trade, I may have something of interest. I use a concept called MAE in my own trading. MAE is the maximum adverse excursion, or simply a running average of how far the winning trades go negative before making money. For example, if you have 10 winning trades and the average maximum amount that they go against you before turning into winners is say 225 pips, then a stop slightly in excess of that number will keep you in the maximum number of winning trades and also keep the losers from getting out of control.

Just a thought, but I know what the numbers for my weekly trading system are and I keep a stop about 25 pips in excess of this number.....lets me sleep a little better knowing I will never wake up to a -400 pip surprise.

Many pips to all

Swingtrade65

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Quoting yonnie

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Fj,

IB got 38 major crosses to trade......not too many?

however they dont have the exotics like ZAR, CZK, DKK, NOK, where you seem to get the most profit from.
now I can trade the futures in these currencies, but Globex is only open for 7 1/2 hours. trade these or not?

working hard to get everything ready come Monday.

thank you for your help

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Quoting yonnie

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hi guys,

had a look at all the trades where losses as the trade progressed were higher than -200 pips and looked at cutting losses at 200, 250, 300, 350, 400, 450 and 500 pips.

best was cutting off at 450 pips down from entry price.
loss would have been 3,150 pips, but by letting the trade ride the loss contracted to 2,307 pips.

seems like Fj is right on the money.....let the trade ride and MM MM MM.

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