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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #96,841
  • Jun 24, 2008 7:17pm Jun 24, 2008 7:17pm
Look at today's price action..
When did the downmove occur? London/Frankfurt.

When did the move back up begin? End of frankfurt/London
Watch the money.
  • #96,842
  • Jun 24, 2008 7:20pm Jun 24, 2008 7:20pm
Quoting Clouds
another view, if you are buying at top of channel, i dont think it's safest place, but that's my opinion.
Attachment
How many almost tops did you see on the daily look back and count...Remember this 209
  • #96,843
  • Jun 24, 2008 7:21pm Jun 24, 2008 7:21pm
Wednesday is triple swap day. A serious downmove against the triple swap has rarely occurred, and I would definitely be alarmed if we see that. After swap is paid is another story.....
  • #96,844
  • Jun 24, 2008 7:24pm Jun 24, 2008 7:24pm
Quoting eric_charbon
How many almost tops did you see on the daily look back and count...Remember this 209
Exactly.
209 got hammered really hard 2 times on the way up from 192.
That level finally got broken and price is trading above it for now. A retest of 209 should get bought hard by those holding long positions from 192 and up.
  • #96,845
  • Jun 24, 2008 7:26pm Jun 24, 2008 7:26pm
Quoting ovaforty
Wednesday is triple swap day. A serious downmove against the triple swap has rarely occurred, and I would definitely be alarmed if we see that. After swap is paid is another story.....
why wouldnt they create selling rally if they were intrested in buying then they wouldnt have to absorb at higher prices. Im sure if u had 20 mill to invest u would want lower prices for all that buying if u were still bullish
"Millionaires don't use astrology, billionaires do"
  • #96,846
  • Jun 24, 2008 7:29pm Jun 24, 2008 7:29pm
Quoting OrionsWay
why wouldnt they create selling rally if they were intrested in buying then they wouldnt have to absorb at higher prices. Im sure if u had 20 mill to invest u would want lower prices for all that buying if u were still bullish
Good point. But they can accomplish that after swap is paid, also.

It will be interesting.
  • #96,847
  • Jun 24, 2008 7:32pm Jun 24, 2008 7:32pm
Quoting ovaforty
Good point. But they can accomplish that after swap is paid, also.

It will be interesting.
Well they could but they would want the swap rate so they would have to have positions in place and in the money before the swap to totally benefit the cause
"Millionaires don't use astrology, billionaires do"
  • #96,848
  • Jun 24, 2008 7:33pm Jun 24, 2008 7:33pm
Orion has a good point. I can see them driving the price down early and taking profits before the swap like they did today.

Why not?


Daily moms show that Orion may have something there.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #96,849
  • Jun 24, 2008 7:38pm Jun 24, 2008 7:38pm
I have been watching this King's Crown formation on the 4 hour as it develops.

If completed, it is a bearish formation.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #96,850
  • Jun 24, 2008 7:50pm Jun 24, 2008 7:50pm
Quoting ovaforty
I have been watching this King's Crown formation on the 4 hour as it develops.

If completed, it is a bearish formation.
good to see your posts again.
  • #96,851
  • Jun 24, 2008 8:37pm Jun 24, 2008 8:37pm
yes Rustyyy, it is a regular bearish. not confirmed yet, though.

Quoting Rustyyy
Thank you for all the responses. Really is appreciated.

Another question/observation.

Daily chart: Is this legitimate divergence ?
Nihil Sine Deo.
  • #96,852
  • Jun 24, 2008 8:43pm Jun 24, 2008 8:43pm
hey where's lilmoe? i hope he's ok. maybe he's catching up with the sleep...
Nihil Sine Deo.
  • #96,853
  • Edited 8:52pm Jun 24, 2008 8:50pm | Edited 8:52pm
Quoting Scrat
yes Rustyyy, it is a regular bearish. not confirmed yet, though.
Thank you Scrat.
Now, since I am just a learning fool , what do we look for, for confirmation?

EDIT: Nikkei is really taking a dump. -200
  • #96,854
  • Jun 24, 2008 8:58pm Jun 24, 2008 8:58pm
Good evening trader, looks like a slow as usual night, good luck all ya
The Chonchy
  • #96,855
  • Jun 24, 2008 10:34pm Jun 24, 2008 10:34pm
i'm considering 2 things:
- first, look for a macd cross (or first macd histo closed below 0). however, this would only guarantee a test of the last resistance (turned support); in this case, 209.14 - and this move should be traded according to h4 charts.
- second, look for a daily close below the supporting trendline. this would be the strongest confirmation, and in most cases price would go to the next important trendline/support which is the weekly one... in this case and at this moment, higher 204.
now, going back to the confirmation, i use this as a golden rule: regular divergence + trendline break + cci 0 cross. the more at the same time, the merrier.

Quoting Rustyyy
Thank you Scrat.
Now, since I am just a learning fool , what do we look for, for confirmation?

EDIT: Nikkei is really taking a dump. -200
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gjd1.gif Size: 23 KB
Nihil Sine Deo.
  • #96,856
  • Jun 24, 2008 10:45pm Jun 24, 2008 10:45pm
now, since we're talking about the daily chart, here is a possible scenario.
price can go to 209.20 area, testing former resistance turned support; macd histo would probably go lower than its last minimum. and this would be a hidden bullish divergence, just perfect to add more longs IF confirmed.
remember, 209 level has been taken with quite a lot effort, so we should expect a LOT of pending long orders there.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gjd1_1.gif Size: 18 KB
Nihil Sine Deo.
  • #96,857
  • Jun 24, 2008 10:48pm Jun 24, 2008 10:48pm
Quoting Scrat
i'm considering 2 things:
- first, look for a macd cross (or first macd histo closed below 0). however, this would only guarantee a test of the last resistance (turned support); in this case, 209.14 - and this move should be traded according to h4 charts.
- second, look for a daily close below the supporting trendline. this would be the strongest confirmation, and in most cases price would go to the next important trendline/support which is the weekly one... in this case and at this moment, higher 204.
now, going back to the confirmation, i use this as a golden rule: regular divergence + trendline break + cci 0 cross. the more at the same time, the merrier.
Scrat,

Is there any reason why you choose to work with (5, 34, 9)macd setting instead of (12, 26, 9)?
  • #96,858
  • Jun 24, 2008 10:51pm Jun 24, 2008 10:51pm
Quoting Scrat
now, since we're talking about the daily chart, here is a possible scenario.
price can go to 209.20 area, testing former resistance turned support; macd histo would probably go lower than its last minimum. and this would be a hidden bullish divergence, just perfect to add more longs IF confirmed.
remember, 209 level has been taken with quite a lot effort, so we should expect a LOT of pending long orders there.
Scrat, I really think that single tiny pink bar on the histogram is virtually meaningless. Would put much emphasis on it being a point to use as a potential divergence.
  • #96,859
  • Edited 11:11pm Jun 24, 2008 10:58pm | Edited 11:11pm
it doesn't matter if it's pink or not. what it matters is that is was the previous significant swing point. you put your support there. you draw a trendline through it.

Quoting Eulogy
Scrat, I really think that single tiny pink bar on the histogram is virtually meaningless. Would put much emphasis on it being a point to use as a potential divergence.
Nihil Sine Deo.
  • #96,860
  • Edited 11:33pm Jun 24, 2008 11:07pm | Edited 11:33pm
proportion between moving averages... 5/34 (almost 1:7) is better than 12/26 (~1:2), at least for my trading style. this ratio shows you better what's going on inside the main move.
let me explain it this way: one candle on h1 chart is made of 2 candles on 30min chart, these 2 candles won't tell you much about h1; but if you go to 10min chart, you will see 6 candles during one hour... which is a lot more information about what's going on inside that initial h1 candle. same thing goes for macd MAs.
5,34,9 is a lot better when looking for divergences; more suitable to my trading style.

Quoting pkimnyc
Scrat,

Is there any reason why you choose to work with (5, 34, 9)macd setting instead of (12, 26, 9)?
Nihil Sine Deo.
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