Indicator Free Trading Style

06-24-08 Trading Journal

Price drop back down to the 15500 support at previous price construction.
This is fourth time price test this level.

Long Position Open

o 15521 / s 15450 / tp 15746

closed position this morning profit 92 pips.
because target price had fullfilled in H chart.

06-24-08 Analysis Update

Due to previous high of 156450 reached instead of target price of fib ext 127, price exp pressure then drop down last afternoon to 15550 support area.

I took benefit of price move up again for 92 pips run today.

The next expectation of price move might form potential uptrend triangle. because 15550 shown very strong support of the price, we might want to see price reach target price fib ext 127 at 15750 price to complete this price trend before we see any reverse pattern or candle formed.

06-24-08 Trading Journal

Today before Tokyo open, I check the EUR again and found the following setup for short trade entry.

Due to previous high that price didnt reach fib ext 127 instead of 15650, then price was drop down to retest 15500 level again.

after that, price boost up to test 15600 but unfortunately didnt close above successly in 4H chart instead create a long tail as inverse hammar in H chart.

As the result, I recognize the pattern of head and should that build as the end of uptrend right at 15600 level.

For those reasons, I place my short trade toward to the fib 127 level target of 15421

short position open

o 15568 / sl 15654 / tp 15421

Nice journal ....John...
It takes a pro to trade only reading the price action, without any indicator!!

Good job John,,keep up posting and updating

06-25-08 Analysis Update

throught whole night and NY morning session, price doesnt move a bit but forming potential uptrend triangle ><... this going to be a tough trade since I open short position last night.

Fed is going to have something to said at 11:15am, this mean there must be some price move at that time.

up to this point, I comes out two prediction of price movement.

1. price is forming potential uptend triangle which might bring price up to 15750 area, but due to strong rejection at price 15650 and 15600, i will not take this triangle as a consideration.

2. head and shoulder right at 15600. m~ sound this one still play the role in the price movement. the only thing I am concerning right now might be the 15650 level. if the announcement is crazy, my 50 pips stop might not be enought. it might goes up to 100 pips. well.. either way, i still keep my 50 stops. no system is perfect. i rather take 50 lost instead of 100+ potential lost.

as the result, head and shoulder still support my short position at this point.

my current short still open, hopefully we can see my stop works and some strong short move soon.

anyone can do without indicators not only pro ^^

i use to have bunch of them, but i feel so free to trade without them.
But I build my trade basic on fib and some wave theroy.

try it by back test and you will be surprise there is actually a pattern exist.

i will. ^^ thanks for drop by my thread.

06-25-08 Position Update

Due to this trade is really tricky, i change my stop and target to

sl 15584 / tp 15551

lower my risk and work my exit now. I dont want to hold this position no more.

06-25-08 Position Update

Ha.... as i thought. price jump up and down hit both of my stop and short target. anyway, im glad to move my stop less so i dont have to carry big loss.

result of the day. 54 pips loss.

06-25-08 Trading Journal

Cathcing the rest of trend.

Uptrend triangle confirm. Target price will be 15750.

position open

o 15681 / tp 15746

stop looss still try to figure out.... probably 30-50 pips stop loss. maybe.... or use trailing stop.

06-25-08 Position Update

Trade Close with 3 pips loss.

I shouldnt open position in the morning session. This is against my rule.
I totally forgot.

well... I will looking forward to see if there is setup before Tokyo or LO.

But one thing for sure is head and shloulder in 15600 had fail by uptrend triangle. the next target price will 15750.

06-25-08 Evaluation from the loss

three thing I learned from the loss.

1. timming stop must apply for the trade.
2. long term targets will have multiple retest at same level even short term target didnt reached.
3. uptrend triangle will confirm at pt 4 before break out.

06-25-08 Analysis Update

for now, we can clearly tell the pass few days consolidation is not head and shoulder pattern instead of it transform into uptrend triangle.

our short term target of 15650 had fullfilled by h chart.

in my observation, this trend might keep run up till 15750 in order to complete mid term target fullfillness.

couple level have to watch out.

1. entry level prefer to be 15650 or 15600
2. stop loss level prefer at 15600 or 15550
3. target price is 15750
4. 15800 is previous high price constructure. this could be next target if there is no sign of top.

hopefully price keeps consolidate till LO open and drop down at my entry point. otherwise i will take little risk to entry higher then my expecting entry point before LO.

06-26-08 Analysis Update

I didnt take long trade last night, because I am so frustrate on which point to entry for low risk. if I enter earlier, i would need to take 70 pips risk in order to make another 70-80 pips into the bank. i dont want to do that. as the result, i didnt take the trade and watch it drop then raise to my target this morning.

my target of 15750 hit this morning. this uptrend movement completed the target prcie in the H chart which price retrace back down to
38.2 fib retrace =15650 then rasise to the 15750.

at this point, the h chart formed a possible rasing wedge that might become a reversal pattern, but i want to see some soilid confirmation such as candlestick, 4h target price reach, or major level hit.

for this reason, i want to see 4h target price hit 15800 as the target price complete. otherwise, i want to see 4h forming some reversal candlestick pattern.

06-26-08 Trading Journal

Since the target price fullfill at 15750, price is not going any further up in 4h chart. as the result, i see evening start forming right at the top of the target price.

this mean is up trend is over. watch out below.
but~ at this point, i dont see the target price yet, but i expect it will go down at least to the previous high which is 15650.

short position open

o 15733 / sl 15802 / tp 15654

06-26-08 Trading Journal Update

I forgot to mention that besiding the evening star candlestick pattern, raising wedge also found in the price pattern shown as picture to confirm the downtrend movement.

This move could become a new down side movement from 8hrs up to a week.

06-27-08 Trading Journal Update

Through whole night's price movement, rasing wedge and even star seems not the key to play at this point.

position closed with 22 loss.

end of this week's trade. Total profit for the week is 13 pips.

looking forward to find more trade opportunity next week.

06-27-08 Weekly Evaluation

This weeks seems not a good week to me.

4 setup opportunity, but I only catch one and loss two.

probably I need to work with the good opportunity recognization at H instead of 4H only.

especially fib ratio hit at H chart without reversal signal.

last, the most important lesson i learn why i loss this week is because i counter trend trade. this seems most risky to trade at this point especially using H chart or 4H chart to counter trend trade.
and most thing trouble me is bottom build. they have to be improve.

06-27-08 Trading Journal

I thought my trade for this week is finished, but after I keep evaluate and analysis, i figure the price is hold by fib ext 127=15750 area from last price action.

this situation happen before. this mean price is going to push to next level of fib ext 161.8. but that level is beyond previous high. so i pick the closet target and more reasonable resistance which is 15800.

that level might hit before or after the market. I dont know.

let see how it goes.

long position open
o 15751 / sl 15710 / tp 15796