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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #96,821
  • Jun 24, 2008 4:51pm Jun 24, 2008 4:51pm
Quoting mktjong
So, US is like beating a sounding gong without any substance in it :-)
yes, in a way. The USD will bottom out if the market believes that the fed has quit cutting the rate.
  • #96,822
  • Jun 24, 2008 4:51pm Jun 24, 2008 4:51pm
yen news looks good
  • #96,823
  • Jun 24, 2008 4:53pm Jun 24, 2008 4:53pm
Quoting ovaforty
how long does a pair need to trend up before traders realize that we are in an uptrend that has been going on for 3 months already?
I expect a correction but I am buying dips until that stops working.
...and maybe its just a 50% retracement of the downmove...how about this on a larger scale.
  • #96,824
  • Jun 24, 2008 4:55pm Jun 24, 2008 4:55pm
Quoting ovaforty
how long does a pair need to trend up before traders realize that we are in an uptrend that has been going on for 3 months already?
I expect a correction but I am buying dips until that stops working.

Now you tell me ... and to think I have been shorting the rallies. .. no wonder I am not getting anywhere fast
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #96,825
  • Jun 24, 2008 4:56pm Jun 24, 2008 4:56pm
my perception is; UJ isn't moving, (and currently since the 15th, trending down) so until UJ hits 109 or 105, I will not focus on yen pairs, but for now, Im only buying /USD pairs.
  • #96,826
  • Jun 24, 2008 4:56pm Jun 24, 2008 4:56pm
Quoting mktjong
So, US is like beating a sounding gong without any substance in it :-)
hyperinflation ..... usd rates 18% .... that might make USD strong again ...lol
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #96,827
  • Jun 24, 2008 4:57pm Jun 24, 2008 4:57pm
Quoting eric_charbon
...and maybe its just a 50% retracement of the downmove...how about this on a larger scale.
a 50% retrace of the downmove from 251 to 192 looks like 223 to me. See the yellow fibs?
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  • #96,828
  • Jun 24, 2008 4:59pm Jun 24, 2008 4:59pm
Quoting malcolmb14
Now you tell me ... and to think I have been shorting the rallies. .. no wonder I am not getting anywhere fast
Shorting the rallies is good to catch the retraces.
  • #96,829
  • Jun 24, 2008 5:00pm Jun 24, 2008 5:00pm
Quoting ovaforty
a 50% retrace of the downmove from 251 to 192 looks like 223 to me. See the yellow fibs?
precision was not my point, looking at the larger scale was...how about 38.2 where does that put us
  • #96,830
  • Jun 24, 2008 5:04pm Jun 24, 2008 5:04pm
Quoting eric_charbon
precision was not my point, looking at the larger scale was...how about 38.7 where does tha put us
If the the 38 fib is broken and price trades above it you can expect a test of the next higher fib.

It is not rocket science. I do expect a correction but if 209 holds I will be buying and holding at that price. I will cover my long position to scalp a retrace down. My long positions all have stop losses at break even or above.

No risk of loss, but collecting a nice daily interest.
  • #96,831
  • Jun 24, 2008 5:07pm Jun 24, 2008 5:07pm
When did the bubble burst in chinese/asian equities? About the same time yen carry trades returned.......
  • #96,832
  • Jun 24, 2008 5:09pm Jun 24, 2008 5:09pm
Thank you for all the responses. Really is appreciated.

Another question/observation.

Daily chart: Is this legitimate divergence ?
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  • #96,833
  • Jun 24, 2008 5:09pm Jun 24, 2008 5:09pm
For any who's interested here are the new daily momentums. Super bearish.
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  • #96,834
  • Jun 24, 2008 5:09pm Jun 24, 2008 5:09pm
USA has been a debt country since the inception of the central bank here. They developed the name Hegomy, and everything has been pegged to it. Intrest payments is the name of the game and that isnt going to change and if it does the USA will be no more, cant see that happening
"Millionaires don't use astrology, billionaires do"
  • #96,835
  • Jun 24, 2008 5:09pm Jun 24, 2008 5:09pm
Quoting ovaforty
If the the 38 fib is broken and price trades above it you can expect a test of the next higher fib.

It is not rocket science. I do expect a correction but if 209 holds I will be buying and holding at that price. I will cover my long position to scalp a retrace down. My long positions all have stop losses at break even or above.

No risk of loss, but collecting a nice daily interest.
for the record I respect your comments man, I always take time to read your views.
keep up the good work!
  • #96,836
  • Jun 24, 2008 5:10pm Jun 24, 2008 5:10pm
Quoting Rustyyy
Thank you for all the responses. Really is appreciated.

Another question/observation.

Daily chart: Is this legitimate divergence ?
yes, but divergence takes a long time to play out.
  • #96,837
  • Jun 24, 2008 5:10pm Jun 24, 2008 5:10pm
Quoting ovaforty
When did the bubble burst in chinese/asian equities? About the same time yen carry trades returned.......
I noticed that but did not think about the movement of funds to carry trades. Actually thought it would be the opposite.
Obviously I thought wrong.
  • #96,838
  • Jun 24, 2008 5:13pm Jun 24, 2008 5:13pm
another view, if you are buying at top of channel, i dont think it's safest place, but that's my opinion.
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  • #96,839
  • Jun 24, 2008 5:14pm Jun 24, 2008 5:14pm
Quoting Rustyyy
I noticed that but did not think about the movement of funds to carry trades. Actually thought it would be the opposite.
Obviously I thought wrong.
the money went to commodities also.
  • #96,840
  • Jun 24, 2008 5:15pm Jun 24, 2008 5:15pm
Quoting Clouds
another view, if you are buying at top of channel, i dont think it's safest place, but that's my opinion.
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Good point.
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