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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #96,801
  • Jun 24, 2008 5:41pm Jun 24, 2008 5:41pm
Fundamentally this BEAST has absolutely no reason to go up. Gbp is weak, Dollar is weak. Both economies suck.

The disconnection to the equity markets is baffling to say the least.

I can sit here and watch the Dow and S&P and the correlated P/A on the USD/JPY. They match to the upside but stop dancing to the downside. Weird stuff.

Where in the hell is all this FALSE dollar strength coming from?
......and what happened to risk aversion?

I guess we will soon find out
  • #96,802
  • Jun 24, 2008 5:49pm Jun 24, 2008 5:49pm
Quoting Rustyyy
Fundamentally this BEAST has absolutely no reason to go up. Gbp is weak, Dollar is weak. Both economies suck.

The disconnection to the equity markets is baffling to say the least.

I can sit here and watch the Dow and S&P and the correlated P/A on the USD/JPY. They match to the upside but stop dancing to the downside. Weird stuff.

Where in the hell is all this FALSE dollar strength coming from?
......and what happened to risk aversion?

I guess we will soon find out
end of quater/month bull run?...maybe
  • #96,803
  • Jun 24, 2008 5:53pm Jun 24, 2008 5:53pm
Quoting Rustyyy
Fundamentally this BEAST has absolutely no reason to go up. Gbp is weak, Dollar is weak. Both economies suck.

The disconnection to the equity markets is baffling to say the least.

I can sit here and watch the Dow and S&P and the correlated P/A on the USD/JPY. They match to the upside but stop dancing to the downside. Weird stuff.

Where in the hell is all this FALSE dollar strength coming from?
......and what happened to risk aversion?

I guess we will soon find out
Two $ scenarios, we're halfway to the bottom. Or we hit bottom a few months back. Oil has to come down (but will it?), ergo dollar must go up, however its done. Dow looks to go lower, when it bottoms watch how the weirdness continues when the indices correlate South instead of North!
Money & Pain Respect the market, protect your capital, be patient
  • #96,804
  • Jun 24, 2008 5:53pm Jun 24, 2008 5:53pm
Quoting Rustyyy
Fundamentally this BEAST has absolutely no reason to go up. Gbp is weak, Dollar is weak. Both economies suck.

The disconnection to the equity markets is baffling to say the least.

I can sit here and watch the Dow and S&P and the correlated P/A on the USD/JPY. They match to the upside but stop dancing to the downside. Weird stuff.

Where in the hell is all this FALSE dollar strength coming from?
......and what happened to risk aversion?

I guess we will soon find out
Hi Rustyy,
I appreciate your comment, makes alot of sense, is anyone here trading prior to July 07 does anyone trade for a while and has experience with this kind of times I know alot of traders in here are very knowledgeable and accurate but lookin at history like 5 to 10 yrs anyone as lived through such uneasytimes trading... I am not shy to say it but my first freaking trade was going with the uptrend late july last year... look it up... back then to see what happened to my demo accnt, luckily. GY speaking. maybe all these people have seen it coming and are rich now...
  • #96,805
  • Jun 24, 2008 6:00pm Jun 24, 2008 6:00pm
GBP is in the middle of the trend lines , either 2.16 or 1.86, but still healthy up trend.
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  • #96,806
  • Jun 24, 2008 6:03pm Jun 24, 2008 6:03pm
Quoting toyboy tramp
Two $ scenarios, we're halfway to the bottom. Or we hit bottom a few months back. Oil has to come down (but will it?), ergo dollar must go up, however its done. Dow looks to go lower, when it bottoms watch how the weirdness continues when the indices correlate South instead of North!
LOL, I think you are right on. Lot of this has to do with oil.
But I sure don't see oil going down.
Seems to me they are buying every dip.

I bet you will be right about the reverse correlation as well.

What a mess, huh ?
  • #96,807
  • Jun 24, 2008 6:06pm Jun 24, 2008 6:06pm
Quoting eric_charbon
Hi Rustyy,
I appreciate your comment, makes alot of sense, is anyone here trading prior to July 07 does anyone trade for a while and has experience with this kind of times I know alot of traders in here are very knowledgeable and accurate but lookin at history like 5 to 10 yrs anyone as lived through such uneasytimes trading... I am not shy to say it but my first freaking trade was going with the uptrend late july last year... look it up... back then to see what happened to my demo accnt, luckily. GY speaking. maybe all these people have seen it coming and are rich now...

Well they say history repeats itself... I like to think of it as the markets are controlled by humans and we humans loves patterns. But some times those patterns get smacked and people start freaking out and do weird stuff.
  • #96,808
  • Jun 24, 2008 6:09pm Jun 24, 2008 6:09pm
It ain't about the Yen and the credit crunch at the moment, which of course is still a factor but not as predominant as it was. It's about the Pound looking attractive as inflation has hamstrung central banks scope to slash rates and now rate hikes are looking on the cards. Not that they'll do any good, quite the opposite I'd say. The risk aversion will catch up with GJ when this settles down and you can have your 'connect' back.

And let Eric Charbon's tale of woe be a lesson to those who say the EU trend will never die. Better to keep an open mind in both directions than to be married to one.
  • #96,809
  • Jun 24, 2008 6:14pm Jun 24, 2008 6:14pm
Quoting eric_charbon
Hi Rustyy,
I appreciate your comment, makes alot of sense, is anyone here trading prior to July 07 does anyone trade for a while and has experience with this kind of times I know alot of traders in here are very knowledgeable and accurate but lookin at history like 5 to 10 yrs anyone as lived through such uneasytimes trading... I am not shy to say it but my first freaking trade was going with the uptrend late july last year... look it up... back then to see what happened to my demo accnt, luckily. GY speaking. maybe all these people have seen it coming and are rich now...
Not sure, but people were shorting GU in July, I'm sure that had some affect.
Attached Image
  • #96,810
  • Jun 24, 2008 6:18pm Jun 24, 2008 6:18pm
lol want to see a funny forex commercial

http://www.cmsfx.com/en/forex-resour...ex-commercial/
  • #96,811
  • Jun 24, 2008 6:19pm Jun 24, 2008 6:19pm
Quoting Clouds
Not sure, but people were shorting GU in July, I'm sure that had some affect.
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I appreciate your comments, I was innocent and I didnt know you Clouds...Lol
  • #96,812
  • Jun 24, 2008 6:27pm Jun 24, 2008 6:27pm
Quoting Evilgoat
lol want to see a funny forex commercial

http://www.cmsfx.com/en/forex-resour...ex-commercial/

that was good Evil
"Millionaires don't use astrology, billionaires do"
  • #96,813
  • Jun 24, 2008 6:31pm Jun 24, 2008 6:31pm
Quoting OrionsWay
that was good Evil
I like when the dollar cowboy kicks dirt in the yen ninjas face
  • #96,814
  • Jun 24, 2008 6:36pm Jun 24, 2008 6:36pm
JPY news is coming..let's see what happens.
  • #96,815
  • Jun 24, 2008 6:37pm Jun 24, 2008 6:37pm
Quoting Evilgoat
I like when the dollar cowboy kicks dirt in the yen ninjas face
aah but the yen has mastered the matrix
Money & Pain Respect the market, protect your capital, be patient
  • #96,816
  • Jun 24, 2008 6:38pm Jun 24, 2008 6:38pm
Quoting Rustyyy
Fundamentally this BEAST has absolutely no reason to go up. Gbp is weak, Dollar is weak. Both economies suck.

The disconnection to the equity markets is baffling to say the least.

I can sit here and watch the Dow and S&P and the correlated P/A on the USD/JPY. They match to the upside but stop dancing to the downside. Weird stuff.

Where in the hell is all this FALSE dollar strength coming from?
......and what happened to risk aversion?

I guess we will soon find out
I know that you know the answer, Rustyy.
Step back a minute and think.
Where are the majority of the world's forex reserves?
Asia and Russia.
You know the fed will announce a rate decision tomorrow. Speculators will drive the USD up because of that.

Chinese equities have lost 40% to 50% in the last 4 months. They are getting their asses kicked. Money has moved out of those markets and into the YEN pairs.
What session moves the market the most? London/ Frankfurt.
We saw them cover their long positions by short selling and right at the last hour frankfurt they took profits and stopped out the late short entries.

It is just common sense.
Yen carry trade is back, until it is not.
That nice drop in Geppy today was a great buying oportunity.
Do not chase the market.
Buy the yen pairs at a good price on moves down, for the time being.
  • #96,817
  • Jun 24, 2008 6:38pm Jun 24, 2008 6:38pm
Quoting Evilgoat
lol want to see a funny forex commercial

http://www.cmsfx.com/en/forex-resour...ex-commercial/
best post on this thread in awhile now. i looked in the mirror the other day and saw jerry's avatar pic looking back at me. had to quit trading for a couple days...
FUBAR...
  • #96,818
  • Jun 24, 2008 6:47pm Jun 24, 2008 6:47pm
Quoting Rustyyy
Fundamentally this BEAST has absolutely no reason to go up. Gbp is weak, Dollar is weak. Both economies suck.

The disconnection to the equity markets is baffling to say the least.

I can sit here and watch the Dow and S&P and the correlated P/A on the USD/JPY. They match to the upside but stop dancing to the downside. Weird stuff.

Where in the hell is all this FALSE dollar strength coming from?
......and what happened to risk aversion?

I guess we will soon find out
Rustyy

you have to understand that yes , fundamentally the US is broke and the USD sucks , but the perception of the USD is that the FEDS are going to stop easing and hold rates , with maybe a hawkish comment tomorrow. That is what is driving the USD up right now against the majors.
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #96,819
  • Jun 24, 2008 6:47pm Jun 24, 2008 6:47pm
how long does a pair need to trend up before traders realize that we are in an uptrend that has been going on for 3 months already?
I expect a correction but I am buying dips until that stops working.
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  • #96,820
  • Jun 24, 2008 6:50pm Jun 24, 2008 6:50pm
Quoting malcolmb14
Rustyy

you have to understand that yes , fundamentally the US is broke and the USD sucks , but the perception of the USD is that the FEDS are going to stop easing and hold rates , with maybe a hawkish comment tomorrow. That is what is driving the USD up right now against the majors.
So, US is like beating a sounding gong without any substance in it :-)
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