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Steviet's Live Trades!

  • #721
  • Feb 2, 2007 12:58pm Feb 2, 2007 12:58pm
Quoting Isotonic
it's these tough weeks or months that will test the trader more than his system! can you hold your own after running up a string of losses?

being in the market, waiting for big moves means you're gonna have to ride out these tough patches and hold your discipline. that's why there is no substitute for live trading - even small accounts like yours!

not that you don't know any of this already - i still think you can win with this approach if you've done your back-testing right.

btw, is your max risk 10% at any time since you always trade 5 pairs together? i think you mentioned one time you were hit for a 5% loss and recovered.

also you said you back-tested each pair independently, since you essentially hold a USD portfolio did you have days when you hit your uncle point (max loss), when you put all the trades together?

i might be misunderstanding your money management here, so it could be my bad!!!

just remembered> on a big report day like today could you be running additional risk of all your stops being hit on your portfolio - ie your uncle point being reached?
Thanks for your comments again. I'm not overly concerned - as you say these are the weeks that you just have to tough it out and believe in yourself & your system.

I don't think I've had a live day yet where initial stoplosses at more than 10% over the five pairs and unless stopped out the first day, this % risk is soon reduced dramatically. Setting the s/l at 10 pips from high/low of previous day as with backtesting, it's extremely rare for the market to go 100 pips one way then reverse the very next day. When this does happen, it also tends to be at the end of a run, where I'll be already in a trade and in profit anyhow.

Looking back to Jan 2006, there are many similarities in EU and then suddenly it found a direction early Feb.

You will notice that although I've had a string of losses, they have all been small losses - frustrating but not really having much effect long term. Those losses will soon be wiped out and some by a nice trending week which will happen

NFP days have been interesting so far. I've traded 3 since going live - the first one just brushed my stop losses for a small loss before going the way of my trades lol. Second one again I had fairly tight stop losses but NFP data was with me (see post #279 page 19) and I ended the day with over 160 pips locked in and over 500 pips in profit. Today, tight s/l & all but one stopped out.

I'm sure it'll even itself out over time and I just need to keep the discipline and wait for my trends. That's my payback time

Kind Regards
Steve
  • #722
  • Feb 2, 2007 1:20pm Feb 2, 2007 1:20pm
admire your attitude steve.
when u`ve had a trading day like i`m having now,
my inexperience would normally let my head go down,
but i find solace in this thread.
thanks to all.

mike.
  • #723
  • Feb 2, 2007 1:23pm Feb 2, 2007 1:23pm
  •  markt
  • | Joined Jan 2007 | Status: Would be... Full time trader | 88 Posts
Heres wishing you all a nice weekend!!
Nice to get away from the numbers!!

See u sunday night!
  • #724
  • Feb 2, 2007 1:30pm Feb 2, 2007 1:30pm
Quoting magicarpet
admire your attitude steve.
when u`ve had a trading day like i`m having now,
my inexperience would normally let my head go down,
but i find solace in this thread.
thanks to all.

mike.
Hi Mike,

You get used to it lol - we all have bad days but the trick is to have a money management style that means you'll still be back in the market the next day, week, month, year.

A lot of traders risk far too much but the market always finds you out and what you thought was get rich quick becomes get broke quick. You can have a few good days and weeks but too much risk and it can be gone just like that. Slowly but surely is the name of the game long term, I'm convinced of it.

Have a great weekend

Kind Regards
Steve
  • #725
  • Feb 2, 2007 1:32pm Feb 2, 2007 1:32pm
Quoting markt
Heres wishing you all a nice weekend!!
Nice to get away from the numbers!!

See u sunday night!
I'm with you there - it's great carrying in profit trades into the weekend but today was not to be.

Catch you Sunday no doubt.

Kind Regards
Steve
  • #726
  • Feb 2, 2007 2:52pm Feb 2, 2007 2:52pm
Hey Steve,

Just wanted to say thanks for your posts, I wanted to ask are you long on the gbp/usd today?

Thanks
  • #727
  • Feb 2, 2007 3:19pm Feb 2, 2007 3:19pm
Quoting forexdanofsa
Hey Steve,

Just wanted to say thanks for your posts, I wanted to ask are you long on the gbp/usd today?

Thanks
That's OK

Yup, my only open position is GU long from 1.9672 last night. Have tightened the stop loss to 45 pips but looking at the charts, my feeling is that the dollar is setting up for a good Monday - that's how the $ pairs that I trade are looking anyhow.

Looking back again at my charts there are many weeks like the last two and then suddenly........BOOM - we're off on a nice run - it gives me great heart to look back and know that a trend is around the corner that we can take advantage of. Afterall, the market will always trend won't it?

Have a great weekend

Kind Regards
Steve
  • #728
  • Feb 2, 2007 4:30pm Feb 2, 2007 4:30pm
Yes it will!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
  • #729
  • Feb 3, 2007 7:20pm Feb 3, 2007 7:20pm
Steviets followers,

The start of Febuary may have been tough on a few of you that are following Steve's trades and system, this is the point that you must not micro manage your trading. Steve knows this, he has stated numerous times in his thread that all the good times, will eventually have some rough patches, I would hardly call this a rough patch even so. The key is to have your money managment system in place to get you though a series of unfavourable trades, caused by, poor execution, news, or whatever. Steve's system has proven itself, even in a short period, but it's not the system in question, rarely is, it is the trader and his/her money managment. Like Steve says, he will look at things after a year, that is the key, look at the big picture.
Keep up the super work Steve, and the rest of you..think macro!

Northpro
  • #730
  • Feb 4, 2007 2:48am Feb 4, 2007 2:48am
i agree northpro! steve's journal has attracted many followers owing to his early success but it's when things get tough, and some of those harvested pips are given back then that's when the trader, system and the followers will be tested. i think steve can do it, his system can do it but will his readers stick with him..?

most people follow trending systems of some sort - i'm a breakout trader mostly but at times i will work in a similar way to steve (see earlier posts). however the key difference is that steve is essentially running a fully invested portfolio of 5 pairs and has taken the timing out of his trades, so he is more vulnerable to choppy markets which will shake out the weaker trader and systems.

that's why few people will ever succeed with this approach, and few people copied richard dennis as successfully. btw steve, if you haven't already i would strongly suggest you read everything about this guy - he is the classic trend trader.
  • #731
  • Feb 4, 2007 4:01am Feb 4, 2007 4:01am
Thanks for the support guys - just googled Richard Dennis and it looks like I have a wealth of information to get through lol.

Over the past week or two I've read about the turtle traders and the trend following systems and it has given me even more belief that I'm on the right track. I guess like all systems, it's the trader that makes it what it is and that's why my main focus is on never breaking the rules and keeping my discipline and patience. The encouragement & support of far more experienced and successful traders than I really means a lot to me. Cheers

Kind Regards
Steve
  • #732
  • Feb 4, 2007 5:26am Feb 4, 2007 5:26am
This thread just keeps getting better

Keep up the hard work Steve, i know it's been a tough week for some us but i'm sure there's a trend right at the corner
Trade what you see, not what you think.
  • #733
  • Feb 4, 2007 5:33am Feb 4, 2007 5:33am
Hey U!

I found ya! didn't know u had a thread here? I am definitely liking what I have read up to now. Keep up the good work! Talk to you soon.

Your Friend
Matt Doucet
  • #734
  • Feb 4, 2007 10:27am Feb 4, 2007 10:27am
Hi Steve,

I thought you may find this interesting just in case you haven't found it online. It is the original Turtle rules in it's entirety (you can find it for free online, altho a few sites 'ask' for donations). They were definitely trend followers, but they were looking at longer-term than what most here are doing. Of course most of us here are not trading other peoples money, and welcome higher risk for the potential rewards

Keep up the excellent work!!

D.



Quoting steviet
Thanks for the support guys - just googled Richard Dennis and it looks like I have a wealth of information to get through lol.

Over the past week or two I've read about the turtle traders and the trend following systems and it has given me even more belief that I'm on the right track. I guess like all systems, it's the trader that makes it what it is and that's why my main focus is on never breaking the rules and keeping my discipline and patience. The encouragement & support of far more experienced and successful traders than I really means a lot to me. Cheers

Kind Regards
Steve
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf turtlerules.pdf   251 KB | 843 downloads
  • #735
  • Feb 4, 2007 10:36am Feb 4, 2007 10:36am
Quoting karmostaji
This thread just keeps getting better

Keep up the hard work Steve, i know it's been a tough week for some us but i'm sure there's a trend right at the corner
Hi,

Great to see you here

Yeah, last week wasn't the best lol but the important thing is we're still here waiting for the next trend to take advantage of.

Kind Regards
Steve
  • #736
  • Feb 4, 2007 10:37am Feb 4, 2007 10:37am
Quoting mattdoucet
Hey U!

I found ya! didn't know u had a thread here? I am definitely liking what I have read up to now. Keep up the good work! Talk to you soon.

Your Friend
Matt Doucet
Hey Matt

Good to see you here - catch you soon

Kind Regards
Steve
  • #737
  • Feb 4, 2007 10:39am Feb 4, 2007 10:39am
Quoting Daemien
Hi Steve,

I thought you may find this interesting just in case you haven't found it online. It is the original Turtle rules in it's entirety (you can find it for free online, altho a few sites 'ask' for donations). They were definitely trend followers, but they were looking at longer-term than what most here are doing. Of course most of us here are not trading other peoples money, and welcome higher risk for the potential rewards

Keep up the excellent work!!

D.
Thanks for this Derek

Yup, I have read it before but I'm sure a lot of others will find it very interesting.

Kind Regards
Steve
  • #738
  • Feb 4, 2007 1:00pm Feb 4, 2007 1:00pm
I read that turtle strategy last week, and have been thinking of it since. I think the strategies listed can be quite powerful if adapted to this trade environment. A few things that I really like as listed in the .pdf are:

I have taken the liberty to modify a bit to reflect Forex

Maximum Positions:

Level Type Maximum Units
1 Single Market 4 Units
2 Closely Correlated Markets 6 Units
3 Loosely Correlated Markets 10 Units
4 Single Direction – Long or Short 12 Units


Single Markets

– A maximum of four Units per market (pair).


Closely Correlated Markets

– For markets (pairs) that are closely correlated there could be a maximum of 6 Units in one particular direction (i.e.6 long units or 6 short units).

Loosely Correlated Markets

– For loosely correlated markets (pairs), there could be a maximum of 10 Units in one particular direction.

Single Direction

– The maximum number of total Units in one direction long or short was 12 Units. Thus, one could theoretically have had 12 Units long and 12 Units short at the same time.

Entry:

Their main entry was the breakout/breakdown of the previous 20 day's High for long & previous 20 day's low for short. Modified this may be a perfect type of entry for a trend following system like the TKimble weekly (previous 5 or 8 days perhaps? - would need to be studied).

I also like their approach to 'adding to a position'. When a breakout occurs, enter with one unit. Then every 1/2 ATR, add another unit (up to the four maximum per pair as listed above) - easily done with fill orders. This would require you to figure out your total forex units based on risk%/pair. The total would be the total risk in forex units if all four positions are filled. That means your 'system unit' would be 1/4 of your total forex units for that particular trade. @ 2% total risk, that equals 1/2% risk per unit.

Initial Stops:

Simply an ATR based stop (more or less). Something I am using myself now Each time you add another position, you raise your stop (for long) up by 1/2 of your total ATR stop.

Exit/Take Profit:

Simply a breakout/breakdown in the opposite direction that passes through the previous 10 day's high for long, or 10 day's low for short (the # of days in their case is 1/2 of their entry positions 20 day breakout). Might be worthwhile to investigate this as well as a TP possibility (8 day breakout for entry, 4 for exit/tp for example).

Anyways, didn't mean to hijack your thread I know you enjoy talking shop here so I hope you don't mind...

I'll let you know if I look further into any of this (curiosity's sake?)

Take care,

Derek


Quoting steviet
Thanks for this Derek

Yup, I have read it before but I'm sure a lot of others will find it very interesting.

Kind Regards
Steve
  • #739
  • Feb 4, 2007 3:52pm Feb 4, 2007 3:52pm
Quoting steviet
Thanks for the support guys - just googled Richard Dennis and it looks like I have a wealth of information to get through lol.

Over the past week or two I've read about the turtle traders and the trend following systems and it has given me even more belief that I'm on the right track. I guess like all systems, it's the trader that makes it what it is and that's why my main focus is on never breaking the rules and keeping my discipline and patience. The encouragement & support of far more experienced and successful traders than I really means a lot to me. Cheers

Kind Regards
Steve
Hope you enjoyed your weekend.

Interesting read on this turtle info, and a lot to consider.

Keep up the great discipline with your MM, and your Entry-Exit strategies.

Ken
  • #740
  • Feb 4, 2007 4:35pm Feb 4, 2007 4:35pm
Thanks Derek & Ken,

Yep, had a great weekend - my son's football team won their fourth match in a row (6-0) and just been watching highlights of Man Utd's 4-0 win today

OK, remaining trade from last week........

GBPUSD long from 1.9672 (s/l 1.9627 guarantees minus 45 pips)

I expect this one to be stopped out as you may be able to tell from my new trades......

USDCAD long from 1.1847 (s/l 1.1767 guarantees minus 80 pips)
USDCHF long from 1.2483 (s/l 1.2368 guarantees minus 115 pips)
USDJPY long from 121.11 (s/l 120.54 guarantees minus 57 pips)
EURUSD short from 1.2957 (s/l 1.3076 guarantees minus 119 pips)

Let's see if the market can finally find some direction this week and get out of this tight range it's been in. Ranging is OK as long as it's at least a 300 pip range which we can still take advantage of with this method. Anything tighter than that proves to be a little more difficult.

Anyhow, have a great week all and above all, stick to your rules & keep your discipline

Kind Regards
Steve
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