Technical Analysis Fallacy

Quoting btr5596

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The only reason I can see from the chart, regarding the EUR short is...

The second X marks the high of the upward move. The following three highs, marked by x's, were unable to surpass this mark, signaling the end of the distribution phase. At the point the short was entered was a lower high, possibly signaling the start of the run down/thrust downward. Could be way off though, just my 2 cents.

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Quoting MaMood

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Good morning guys (or whatever timezone you stay in) from germany!

After round about 2 months of fulltime reading this unbelievable thread and of course practicesing, I reached the top of your postings.

I have read a lot of trading & forex related books before.
I have done a lot of research concerning time series, prediction and probabilities etc. - but that was somewhat worthless compared to the invaluable teachings, ideas, insights you were giving here. Especially the teachings about traders mindset (one of my weaknesses) and AOW ....

Thanks a lot to fti and leighsww for initiating this great thread!!!
Thanks to LuSan, Northpro, Jest, Green_David, Zoran and many others for their thoughts and contibutions!!!

I'm very happy, that I have found this thread.
I'm happy too, that from now on I can discuss your topics and ideas in "real time".

Thanks again!
Have a good time and successful trading!!!

Regards,
MaMood

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Quoting fti

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Hi ALL,


If it was not clear to anyone, let me explain that I had to cut loose the session, as I was managing positions, and with my trying to lead the feel for some traders on the thread as well. When I couldn't feel and felt blinded by the discussion, I had little choice but to cut loose for the reasons that it has financial impact for me. I had to re-orientate my feel. Moreover a blinded trader can hardly lead in terms of the feel aspect of the market 's pulse. Cutting loose was my only option.

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Quoting fti

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on the subject I mentioned highlighted in red

... ...

Making any sense?

regards

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Quoting Zoran

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As I read the Tunnel book, I have just got to a section that I feel is appropriate fti. It comes from "A Psalm of Life" with the following verse:

Trust no future, howe'er pleasant!
Let the dead Past bury its dead!
Act - act in the living present!
Heart within and God o'erhead.

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Quoting Green_David

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Hi, fit:

Still keeping up without sleeping?

I shorted E/U and G/U yesterday and made good return, however I closed my positions too early, missed about 50 pips profit. And I started to set up long positions by sending scout both in G/U and E/U but stuck with -50 pips. On the way they reached the true bottom, I initiated rescue operation by added more long positions.

Problems: I closed the rescue positions with mean profit(less than 20 pips) last night, since I don't want too much positions exposed overnight. If I held them today, at least 100 pips by now. I have to sleep.

This morning, I added more long positions of E/U and G/U, but with worse price than rescue positions of last night. I paid 30~50 pips more! (E/U around 5530, G/U around 9550)

These newly added long positions didn't give me profit however. Why? I closed them when E/U broke down 5550, and G/U down 9540. And ironically, later, both of them went up again.

Another problem: I can't overlook market for more than 8 hours with the same alert and clear mind, otherwise, when E/U and G/U went up again I would have added again.

I still made profit today anyway, caught the chance of the last impulse, E/U closed around 1.5610, G/U 1.9610.

Any advice from you?

Best regards,

David

It's upset, for two days, because of impatience, and some "strange" price pattern this afternoon I didn't make as much as supposed to be.

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Quoting fti

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.

If some of you may like to think about this, you may discover the reasons why, some are unable to "flow with the dance". This is because to flow on wards the point of reference is no longer the historical mindframe but the immediate past , and the present quickly becomes, immediate past, and the previous point of reference must be released that the new point of reference should be the point of contention. For strategic repositioning , the only point of reference , is the consolidated exposure and will always be in a singular directional play, so there is no consideration for the other perspective, unless this accumulated position find itself in trouble. If this was true then repositioning is required.

Making any sense?

regards

Ignored

Quoting fti

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AN Analysis in Restrospects.
on the subject I mentioned highlighted in red.

I noticed that many here harbors the ideals that analysis must be indepth and MUST be correct. Much as I would like this to be par excellence, it is difficult , if not impossible to be correct all the time. Thats the reason why contingency rescues are necessary. And when we are correct to implimentation of prudent pressing of the trend ride.

As to the analysis given by some who analysed the morning session. It was obvious , of the bottommishness of the USD then, but to spend too much effort to determine the analysisi which was already on going and non-attentiveness to strategic positioning and elbowing for prime positioning and costing, seems to elude the trade mindset. This was what blinded me. My mind was distracted to the historical significance, of decisions already implimented into the market place. But really, it was my fault that I had asked the questions "why?" along side my blotter postioning.
In fact I was prompting mindset to answer that it was scout, then scout 1, further that attack was planned, of which I could not execute, due to upcoming price patterns. But when discussion was directed as to what prompted the trade, then my thoughts reverted to pre-action frame of mind, and this interfered with my thoughts which was trying to feel forward and to position and strategise forward.

For me there is a lesson here, in that I had not appreciated that traders may have tendency to revisit their past decisions, which may interfere with their capacity and ability to move on. I had never felt this delima until this session, when I had difficulty to relate that analysis against what was unfolding in the markets,because to think of the rational of the entered position disorientated me from my strategic capacity.

If some of you may like to think about this, you may discover the reasons why, some are unable to "flow with the dance". This is because to flow on wards the point of reference is no longer the historical mindframe but the immediate past , and the present quickly becomes, immediate past, and the previous point of reference must be released that the new point of reference should be the point of contention. For strategic repositioning , the only point of reference , is the consolidated exposure and will always be in a singular directional play, so there is no consideration for the other perspective, unless this accumulated position find itself in trouble. If this was true then repositioning is required.

This getting abit too complicated to explain. In simple language, I Think some traders may be thinking from too many perspectives that they are paralysed from prudent action and reaction to market flow.
(too much analysis, not enough strategic following).
( too much comfirmation required before action or corrective action.)
( too much intelligence, lack of confidence)
This could be reasons why some cannot dance.
When this was my frame of mind this morning session, I COULDN'T DANCE!!.
Which was the reason I cut loose the session abruptly.
As I reset my thoughts from booked exposure, The rhythm returned.

Making any sense?

regards

Ignored

Quoting fti

Disliked

AN Analysis in Restrospects.
on the subject I mentioned highlighted in red.

I noticed that many here harbors the ideals that analysis must be indepth and MUST be correct. Much as I would like this to be par excellence, it is difficult , if not impossible to be correct all the time. Thats the reason why contingency rescues are necessary. And when we are correct to implimentation of prudent pressing of the trend ride.

As to the analysis given by some who analysed the morning session. It was obvious , of the bottommishness of the USD then, but to spend too much effort to determine the analysisi which was already on going and non-attentiveness to strategic positioning and elbowing for prime positioning and costing, seems to elude the trade mindset. This was what blinded me. My mind was distracted to the historical significance, of decisions already implimented into the market place. But really, it was my fault that I had asked the questions "why?" along side my blotter postioning.
In fact I was prompting mindset to answer that it was scout, then scout 1, further that attack was planned, of which I could not execute, due to upcoming price patterns. But when discussion was directed as to what prompted the trade, then my thoughts reverted to pre-action frame of mind, and this interfered with my thoughts which was trying to feel forward and to position and strategise forward.

For me there is a lesson here, in that I had not appreciated that traders may have tendency to revisit their past decisions, which may interfere with their capacity and ability to move on. I had never felt this delima until this session, when I had difficulty to relate that analysis against what was unfolding in the markets,because to think of the rational of the entered position disorientated me from my strategic capacity.

If some of you may like to think about this, you may discover the reasons why, some are unable to "flow with the dance". This is because to flow on wards the point of reference is no longer the historical mindframe but the immediate past , and the present quickly becomes, immediate past, and the previous point of reference must be released that the new point of reference should be the point of contention. For strategic repositioning , the only point of reference , is the consolidated exposure and will always be in a singular directional play, so there is no consideration for the other perspective, unless this accumulated position find itself in trouble. If this was true then repositioning is required.

This getting abit too complicated to explain. In simple language, I Think some traders may be thinking from too many perspectives that they are paralysed from prudent action and reaction to market flow.
(too much analysis, not enough strategic following).
( too much comfirmation required before action or corrective action.)
( too much intelligence, lack of confidence)
This could be reasons why some cannot dance.
When this was my frame of mind this morning session, I COULDN'T DANCE!!.
Which was the reason I cut loose the session abruptly.
As I reset my thoughts from booked exposure, The rhythm returned.

Making any sense?

regards

Ignored

Quoting fti

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Hi Zoran,

seems to have the mindset there, just right.
amazing stuff seems to be the in-thingy.
Thanks for the quote.
Very insightful, that WD gann.

regards.

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Quoting Green_David

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Hi, fit:

Still keeping up without sleeping?

I shorted E/U and G/U yesterday and made good return, however I closed my positions too early, missed about 50 pips profit. And I started to set up long positions by sending scout both in G/U and E/U but stuck with -50 pips. On the way they reached the true bottom, I initiated rescue operation by added more long positions.

Problems: I closed the rescue positions with mean profit(less than 20 pips) last night, since I don't want too much positions exposed overnight. If I held them today, at least 100 pips by now. I have to sleep.

This morning, I added more long positions of E/U and G/U, but with worse price than rescue positions of last night. I paid 30~50 pips more! (E/U around 5530, G/U around 9550)

These newly added long positions didn't give me profit however. Why? I closed them when E/U broke down 5550, and G/U down 9540. And ironically, later, both of them went up again.

Another problem: I can't overlook market for more than 8 hours with the same alert and clear mind, otherwise, when E/U and G/U went up again I would have added again.

I still made profit today anyway, caught the chance of the last impulse, E/U closed around 1.5610, G/U 1.9610.

Any advice from you?

Best regards,

David

It's upset, for two days, because of impatience, and some "strange" price pattern this afternoon I didn't make as much as supposed to be.

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Quoting auxesis

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To truly digest this is a plateful.

When dancing you try to feel your partner’s footsteps, in this case are we trying to lead?

Soul searching time.

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Quoting Zoran

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Hi aux

Try this:

Clear you mind and focus on your chart (5min naked). Watch the price move and begin to feel it. When you believe your mind is in sync, enter your scout. When you feel it about to turn, exit your scout. I think that is good practice for a start.

If you are out of sync wait until you feel the next turn and enter a rescue and be quick to get out with a small profit. You can use some technical analysis to find potential rescue points if need be. I suggest you practice in consolidating markets as it should be easier with small entries.

Otherwise you can go with a trending market so long as you enter in the direction of the impulse. Do not attempt to trade contrarian otherwise RIP.

When dancing, you cannot lead but only follow (unless you are a central bank or something similar).

I hope that helps.

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Quoting auxesis

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Zoran,

Howdy! Thanks for the help, i find myself now blocking out the lines and concentrating just on the price action/ push and pull when in the move, but there's still a few kinks in my mindset that need to be adjusted to fully incorporate fti's methodology, for me.

here's the key to FTI's comment imho.

This is because to flow on wards the point of reference is no longer the historical mindframe but the immediate past , and the present quickly becomes, immediate past, and the previous point of reference must be released that the new point of reference should be the point of contention. For strategic repositioning , the only point of reference , is the consolidated exposure and will always be in a singular directional play, so there is no consideration for the other perspective, unless this accumulated position find itself in trouble. If this was true then repositioning is required.

Again thanks!

a

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