Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)
Well, if the move is really exhausted (which appears to be), the area between 38.2% and 50% retracement is likely to happen. From 192.42 to 213.26 gives roughly 204.xx area ..
but traders can use (or must use )from two analytical models .
beacuse both these different but somewhat coplementary methods for FX markets or other markets .
many fundamentals traders use technicals for deciding entry and exit points.
on the other hand , many technical traders use fundamentals to limit their universe of possible.
Fundamental analysis is a method of forecasting the future price movements of a financial instrument where fundamental traders basically trade the news.
enter=fundamental analysis
exit=technicals analysis
attention :fundamental analysis and technicals analysis are similar two-winged
a bird
nice input bro
on the other hand. lets talk a bit of geppy.
take a look at this former resistance turned support. price has failed to close below a breached TL, makes me think it will go higher. i'm talking strictly technical here, hehehe.
we are still at a FE long formation. and i expect price to go to 216.xx area. THAT, would be a good area to sell i think. reasons;
1) fe 261.8 (216.18)
2) daily 200sma (216.37)
3) neckline TL (red). i drew this line from march 6th 2007 low (221) to august 17th 2007 (219). the current level of the TL is at 216.13, will be a bit lower in the coming days.
price has rejected both FE 161.8 (white FE) and FE 100 (green FE), u can see where and how i drew both FEs on the chart.
the green FE 127.2 is VERY good resistance (at 214.14) and in perfect confluence with jan 25 high of this year. we have LOTS of support, but only the former mentioned resistance, after that i don't see any resistance until 216 but the upper TL of the daily channel (bearish flag). but the latter i'm not sure about, because u can draw it in 25 different ways, lol.
here's a chart with a zoom out to show how i drew everything.
Attachment
Attachment
nice input bro
on the other hand. lets talk a bit of geppy.
take a look at this former resistance turned support. price has failed to close below a breached TL, makes me think it will go higher. i'm talking strictly technical here, hehehe.
we are still at a FE long formation. and i expect price to go to 216.xx area. THAT, would be a good area to sell i think. reasons;
1) fe 261.8 (216.18)
2) daily 200sma (216.37)
3) neckline TL (red). i drew this line from march 6th 2007 low (221) to august 17th 2007 (219). the current level of the TL is at 216.13, will be a bit lower in the coming days.
price has rejected both FE 161.8 (white FE) and FE 100 (green FE), u can see where and how i drew both FEs on the chart.
the green FE 127.2 is VERY good resistance (at 214.14) and in perfect confluence with jan 25 high of this year. we have LOTS of support, but only the former mentioned resistance, after that i don't see any resistance until 216 but the upper TL of the daily channel (bearish flag). but the latter i'm not sure about, because u can draw it in 25 different ways, lol.
here's a chart with a zoom out to show how i drew everything.
Attachment
Attachment
we missed you.
hi all budds
i wish all you had great weekend
market will open few hours,wish green tits for allhttp://qsmile.com/qsimages/83.gif
man, you guys are obsessed with big tits - but green also!!!!
This is what I am trying to convey; Technicals and fundamentals mixed together make a great trading plan.
So, yes lets talk about the geppy.
Technically we have visited the 214.00 area 4 times since Jan2008, each time rejected. I have the 61.8 fib from the July2007 high at 214.68 which should be touched, TECHNICALLY, will it ?
In order for the geppy to go UP one of two things have to happen. The USD/JPY has to go up, which means dollar strength or the GBP/USD has to go up which means GBP strength.
USD/JPY: The recent rise is because of USD rate increase speculation due to inflation. This is now dissapearing, look at the fed funds index. I think it is at 8% for a rate increase. The USD/JPY goes up because of interest rate differentials. Period. This up move was because of Fedhead speak and nothing else. Think it will last ?
GBP/USD: Surprising positive retail sales boosted the GBP/USD last week which boosted the geppy.
But when the retailers are heavily discounting this number will be strong. The GBP/USD is sitting on an important s/r, could it break from here? Possibly.
But the recent (dovish) rhetoric from the BOE suggests that they will not increase their rate regardless of inflationary concerns. No rate increase no strength in GBP/USD.
Market sentiment and fear: The Vix is ticking up. The higher it goes the more likely the carry trades (G/Y and U/Y and E/Y, etc) will go DOWN.
Summary: In order for geppy to break this very strong S/R area of 213.50-214.00 one of these currency pairs has to show some strength. Which one will it be ?
Neither is very strong right now, world economic slowdown coupled with inflationary pressure points in the weak direction for both which would signal a downturn in the geppy.
Both pairs are sitting at critical S/R levels are they strong enough to rise above?
We will find out next week for sure.
Looks like you guys have this thread in control. Dont need my teaching here. I will concentrate on teaching newbies who want a long term low risk investment type strategy.
