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The secret within Forex trading

  • #1
  • First Post: Jun 21, 2008 1:31pm Jun 21, 2008 1:31pm
Most of you who are reading this thread have trouble trading forex profitably, or are in a great psychological pressure. You have lost a lot of money in forex and want to get it all back. You have put a side your family and friends and spent many hours a day trying to learn forex. You find a system and trade it in demo and get excited because it’s doing good in demo and then when you go live everything turns in to disaster. Every time you make a new live account you think that this time you know what you’re doing. You hop from one system to another hoping to find a system that will work 80% of the time. But did you ever look back and question why is it that every time you find a system and demo it for couple of days and once you trade it live the system stops working? Why is it that systems work for a while and then stop working?
Forex or any other trading market has their own behavior and psychology. They change constantly, they never stay the same. We have different kinds of markets, trend, range, choppy... etc. The reason why most people lose money in trading is because we intend to think about the market just like any other business in reality. We always think logically and everything has to make sense. In forex 2 + 2 isn’t 4… you can’t draw a channel line and expect the market to fall after the break of the channel.
You always hear from profitable traders, “ Find a system that works for you”, “ have discipline”, “money management is important”, But when you do all these things you still fail, Because they don’t explain why you need to find a system that works for you or why you should have discipline…
Did you know that you can become profitable from only using two moving averages? Did you know why when someone is using a system and is profitable and he gives you the system and you lose money?


Here is how
1. Find a system that fits with your personality, and the way of trading.
2. Money management is important
3. Discipline


Make a demo account and keep on trading with the system, if it failed keep on trading with it, don’t ever give up. .. Then you will start to notice something. You will start to open trades and without any explanation you close the trade. You’ll understand the market behavior in a way which you won’t be able to explain it in words. You will feel when to get in and when to get out without any reasonable or logical explanation. Sometimes when the system gives you a signal you won’t take it…

“People who give up they just don’t realize how close they were to success.”
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  • #2
  • Jun 21, 2008 1:39pm Jun 21, 2008 1:39pm
Quoting forexpert310
Most of you who are reading this thread have trouble trading forex profitably, or are in a great psychological pressure. You have lost a lot of money in forex and want to get it all back. You have put a side your family and friends and spent many hours a day trying to learn forex. You find a system and trade it in demo and get excited because it’s doing good in demo and then when you go live everything turns in to disaster. Every time you make a new live account you think that this time you know what you’re doing. You hop from one system to another hoping to find a system that will work 80% of the time. But did you ever look back and question why is it that every time you find a system and demo it for couple of days and once you trade it live the system stops working? Why is it that systems work for a while and then stop working?
Forex or any other trading market has their own behavior and psychology. They change constantly, they never stay the same. We have different kinds of markets, trend, range, choppy... etc. The reason why most people lose money in trading is because we intend to think about the market just like any other business in reality. We always think logically and everything has to make sense. In forex 2 + 2 isn’t 4… you can’t draw a channel line and expect the market to fall after the break of the channel.
You always hear from profitable traders, “ Find a system that works for you”, “ have discipline”, “money management is important”, But when you do all these things you still fail, Because they don’t explain why you need to find a system that works for you or why you should have discipline…
Did you know that you can become profitable from only using two moving averages? Did you know why when someone is using a system and is profitable and he gives you the system and you lose money?


Here is how
1. Find a system that fits with your personality, and the way of trading.
2. Money management is important
3. Discipline


Make a demo account and keep on trading with the system, if it failed keep on trading with it, don’t ever give up. .. Then you will start to notice something. You will start to open trades and without any explanation you close the trade. You’ll understand the market behavior in a way which you won’t be able to explain it in words. You will feel when to get in and when to get out without any reasonable or logical explanation. Sometimes when the system gives you a signal you won’t take it…

“People who give up they just don’t realize how close they were to success.”
I totally agree with your points 1, 2 and 3 and what you have said. Would you mind sharing what trading method you use and how it fits your personality ?

Thanks ...


Bruce
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  • #3
  • Jun 21, 2008 3:04pm Jun 21, 2008 3:04pm
Damn!!!

That is my method; you know, draw a channel lines on 1hr chart when it gets broken, trade in the opposite direction. I thought I found the holy grail. So it really does'nt work? It has been working ok for the past month or so however 1 loss can kill 3 positive trades.

thanks alot forexpert310!!!
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  • #4
  • Jun 21, 2008 3:55pm Jun 21, 2008 3:55pm
No I think what he means is that it does work most of the time. It's just like any system though. Sometimes it won't, it's not a 100% accurate. Then as always after demoing it, you start trading live. Of course that's when it fails.
Then you give up and start trying something new...

and the cycle begins all over.

I think what he means is that when your system fails, try to figure out what was different with the market when it failed. Like with the trend-line. Many times they work, but sometimes the price will get very close and just hover and keep testing it. That's when you know from experience/intuition that it may very well may break through. So you get out of that trade even though it fits your rules. Over many many trades, both successful and failures you will be able to sense these things better and better.
  • #5
  • Jun 21, 2008 3:59pm Jun 21, 2008 3:59pm
Quoting forexpert310
You will feel when to get in and when to get out without any reasonable or logical explanation.
Isn't that what most traders do anyway? Enter and exit without a logical explanation?
  • #6
  • Jun 21, 2008 4:27pm Jun 21, 2008 4:27pm
Quoting outofajam
No I think what he means is that it does work most of the time. It's just like any system though. Sometimes it won't, it's not a 100% accurate. Then as always after demoing it, you start trading live. Of course that's when it fails.
Then you give up and start trying something new...

and the cycle begins all over.

I think what he means is that when your system fails, try to figure out what was different with the market when it failed. Like with the trend-line. Many times they work, but sometimes the price will get very close and just hover and keep testing it. That's when you know from experience/intuition that it may very well may break through. So you get out of that trade even though it fits your rules. Over many many trades, both successful and failures you will be able to sense these things better and better.
Yup, every system works some time, you have to trade the times it is working, and this sense comes from experience.
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  • #7
  • Jun 21, 2008 4:29pm Jun 21, 2008 4:29pm
Quoting Warren Forex
I totally agree with your points 1, 2 and 3 and what you have said. Would you mind sharing what trading method you use and how it fits your personality ?

Thanks ...


Bruce
Soon I will
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  • #8
  • Edited 5:14am Jun 22, 2008 4:55am | Edited 5:14am
Quoting forexpert310
Yup, every system works some time, you have to trade the times it is working, and this sense comes from experience.
I use a method that I did not invent or discover as a system. It just came naturally to me. The one definite is that it works. It works in part because of the same point that you made in your post about technical trading.

Your point being that if it does not work try to find out why it did not work.

With that as background I trade using FTP !

I will look for the Video Link on the explanation and post it here after on edit.

FTP is Fundamentals + Technicals + Perception

I look for why the fundamentals are changing without changing but more IMPORTANT short term the PERCEPTION is changing. When Perception changes back to REALITY you have your EDGE if you are aware that the PERCEPTION is wrong due to the Fundamentals which in the end always drive the market.

Link: From My Home Thread "Knowledge Is Power"

If you have not viewed the video posted on this thread called "FTP" please do so after reading this post. FUNDAMENTALS get you into your position ahead of most others. Then you use TECHNICALS to get the BEST entry into that currency and also know where everyone sees, Support, Resistance and Pivot Points.

Then we get to PERCEPTION as I just explained above as did Jack Crooks confirm. GUESS WHAT ? Just like in the FTP video of a little less than 7 minutes shows, when the PERCEPTION becomes commonplace, that is when it will be ready to reverse as it just might do at or shortly over the next few days since ONE, there will be surprise by the NON ACTION of the G8 and following that on Monday and Tuesday coming, there is IMPORTANT US Data on the housing market including the much watched and accepted NAHB index coming out on Monday at 1:00 PM

I will do another post on how to take advantage of this knowledge to make money using my method of trading FX which works.

Here is the Link to the FTP video.

http://broadcast.ino.com/education/t...eboard_6/?blog

PLEASE WATCH IT !!! Thank You !!!

Note: I watched the video myself again and looking at it very carefully from a technical point of view what is being said is that the fundamentals are being confirmed by the breakout. Now knowing the breakout is backed by fundamentals is surely helpful. So the key is knowing if it is a real breakout or a false one. The video talks about fundamentals being supply and demand and other factors as scarcity. On the downside with Perception and Fundamentals seen by all as the Perception is being returned to reality such as the next FED announcement where it seems no raise is coming yet two weeks ago the FED convinced the markets that the chance of a raise was growing. I would appreciate some discussion on my observations since I trade more from the fundamental side. I find the breakout comment very interesting from a technical view which is not my stronger suit !!!



Bruce
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  • #9
  • Jun 22, 2008 6:31am Jun 22, 2008 6:31am
Nice video, my kids really enjoyed it!
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  • #10
  • Jun 22, 2008 6:47am Jun 22, 2008 6:47am
Quoting alelualdi
Nice video, my kids really enjoyed it!
Have a GREAT Sunday with your children !!!

I have no kids, no wife, no lady friend but if I found the right lady, I might have children even though I am 64 years young. Children are our Future !!!


Bruce
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  • #11
  • Jun 22, 2008 10:38am Jun 22, 2008 10:38am
Quoting Warren Forex
I use a method that I did not invent or discover as a system. It just came naturally to me. The one definite is that it works. It works in part because of the same point that you made in your post about technical trading.

Your point being that if it does not work try to find out why it did not work.

With that as background I trade using FTP !

I will look for the Video Link on the explanation and post it here after on edit.

FTP is Fundamentals + Technicals + Perception

I look for why the fundamentals are changing without changing but more IMPORTANT short term the PERCEPTION is changing. When Perception changes back to REALITY you have your EDGE if you are aware that the PERCEPTION is wrong due to the Fundamentals which in the end always drive the market.

Link: From My Home Thread "Knowledge Is Power"

If you have not viewed the video posted on this thread called "FTP" please do so after reading this post. FUNDAMENTALS get you into your position ahead of most others. Then you use TECHNICALS to get the BEST entry into that currency and also know where everyone sees, Support, Resistance and Pivot Points.

Then we get to PERCEPTION as I just explained above as did Jack Crooks confirm. GUESS WHAT ? Just like in the FTP video of a little less than 7 minutes shows, when the PERCEPTION becomes commonplace, that is when it will be ready to reverse as it just might do at or shortly over the next few days since ONE, there will be surprise by the NON ACTION of the G8 and following that on Monday and Tuesday coming, there is IMPORTANT US Data on the housing market including the much watched and accepted NAHB index coming out on Monday at 1:00 PM

I will do another post on how to take advantage of this knowledge to make money using my method of trading FX which works.

Here is the Link to the FTP video.

http://broadcast.ino.com/education/t...eboard_6/?blog

PLEASE WATCH IT !!! Thank You !!!

Note: I watched the video myself again and looking at it very carefully from a technical point of view what is being said is that the fundamentals are being confirmed by the breakout. Now knowing the breakout is backed by fundamentals is surely helpful. So the key is knowing if it is a real breakout or a false one. The video talks about fundamentals being supply and demand and other factors as scarcity. On the downside with Perception and Fundamentals seen by all as the Perception is being returned to reality such as the next FED announcement where it seems no raise is coming yet two weeks ago the FED convinced the markets that the chance of a raise was growing. I would appreciate some discussion on my observations since I trade more from the fundamental side. I find the breakout comment very interesting from a technical view which is not my stronger suit !!!



Bruce
Nice thanks a lot for the video, I think most of us know too much about technicals can you delight us with your fundamental skills?
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  • #12
  • Jun 22, 2008 5:02pm Jun 22, 2008 5:02pm
Quoting Warren Forex
if I found the right lady, Bruce

Sorry to disappoint you, Bruce, but this sound just like "if I found the right system, etc."

Since you haven't found the right one for so long, don't you think it's time you make the lady (whoever she is now) the right one for you?
  • #13
  • Jun 22, 2008 6:14pm Jun 22, 2008 6:14pm
Quoting forexpert310
Then you will start to notice something. You will start to open trades and without any explanation you close the trade. You’ll understand the market behavior in a way which you won’t be able to explain it in words. You will feel when to get in and when to get out without any reasonable or logical explanation. Sometimes when the system gives you a signal you won’t take it…
The brain is good at pattern recognition, the secret is to spend enough time on the screen for the brain to learn the patterns subconsciously and stop over thinking it and then betting against these "feelings"
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #14
  • Jun 23, 2008 4:48am Jun 23, 2008 4:48am
Quoting forexpert310
Nice thanks a lot for the video, I think most of us know too much about technicals can you delight us with your fundamental skills?
Most of my posting is done over at my chosen home thread,
"Knowledge Is Power"

Please visit there when you are able and post and share your thoughts. There is very much Fundamental Information there along with Technical as well.

See you soon ...


Bruce
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  • #15
  • Jun 23, 2008 5:47am Jun 23, 2008 5:47am
Have a GREAT Sunday with your children !!!

I have no kids, no wife, no lady friend but if I found the right lady, I might have children even though I am 64 years young. Children are our Future !!!


Bruce

That's great Bruce!! at least you should have plenty of time for Forex!! I envy you

ciao
Alex
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  • #16
  • Jun 25, 2008 8:44am Jun 25, 2008 8:44am
One thing not mentioned which is .. to take a forex course or two. Without training, your chances of succeeding are limited.

Second thing is to find a successful forex trader that is willing to be your mentor. Please do yourself a favor and don't ask someone to be your mentor if you have no training with the forex.

Please take this advice and seek training. I have been trading the forex a lot longer than most traders here and I can easily spot those that have no training by the way they post the most simple questions. 95% of forex traders fail. This are about the same odds as those that have no forex training behind them.
"To Be A Successful Forex Trader, You Need A Successful Forex Mentor."
  • #17
  • Last Post: Jun 25, 2008 3:19pm Jun 25, 2008 3:19pm
Quoting forexpert310
......Here is how

1. Find a system that fits with your personality, and the way of trading.
Not enough for me, I'm afraid. I wouldn't risk money on a system that has anything less than a rock-solid, statistically proven edge.

2. Money management is important
Agreed, MM will keep you in the game long enough to survive losses, and give your edge the opportunity to ultimately prevail.

3. Discipline
is really only possible if you have a high degree of confidence in your system. Otherwise, when you have a long series of losses, how do you keep to your plan? And confidence can come only from knowing that your system has a long-term edge...... which brings us back to point #1.......
......
This post sums up my thoughts nicely:
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=1835094

However, it goes without saying that everybody thinks differently. Each to his or her own.

David
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