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Part Time Wealth Building Trading System - Weekly Scalping

  • #841
  • Feb 3, 2007 11:31am Feb 3, 2007 11:31am
sweet thanks man. ill be ready to execute this sunday.
  • #842
  • Feb 3, 2007 1:02pm Feb 3, 2007 1:02pm
I've just started to do a manual backtest for 2005 using Alpari hourly data and the original rules. So far I've completed Jan & Feb 2005, and have ended up with 43 trades, of which only 7 were profitable. In January there were 20 consecutive stop outs. I've attached an Excel spreadsheet, so that maybe someone can take a look and see if I've got something not quite right. I tested using both a 30 pip stop and a 40 pip stop, and in every case that the 30 was hit, the 40 was also triggered.
Attached File(s)
File Type: zip Weekly 2005 Backtest GBPUSD.zip   6 KB | 835 downloads
Michael fxgorilla
  • #843
  • Feb 3, 2007 1:30pm Feb 3, 2007 1:30pm
I just started this week in this forum and liked TK's system for it's simplicity and the great positive attitude of this forum participants. I just want to thank everyone here. I started with TK's weekly system but changed little bit here and there to get some profit (all in demo a/c) and closed the week with 150 pips profit with GBP/USD (A/c size: $1000, lot size 10k). I saw lot of times in this forum about the question of closing price and entry point. Since my trading time is limited to couple of hours in the late evening and I just go to computer about 9 AM in the morning (PST) and may be about 3 PM in the afternoon to check/close the transaction. Although I spent all the day in my computer but I can't get time to trade. I do not think that the exact closing price is very important as long as it's taken between friday NY close and Monday London opening time, it is okay for GBP/USD. Also, I can put a limit order Friday night and don't worry about entry point. What I did all the week, either I took profit or start a new trade every time I closed a trade. Generally every night, I placed a Buy at + 30 pips at market price and a S at - 30 pips at market price. Next morning either I took a loss or whatever profit I could and place another order. I am seeing lot of discussions about taking profit. It's true if the market is trending then TK's no profit target trade is good. But for ranging market (which is most of the time), it will kill. I don't see any problem of having multiple order with different profit target as suggested some of us here or even take profit every say 50/60 pips manually and place a new order at market price. If it's trending , you will keep on making money. The only loss is the spread which is not that bad for GBP/USD. These are my 2 cents. I am playing with demo for about a year and I am still a newbie.

Thanks
  • #844
  • Feb 3, 2007 2:32pm Feb 3, 2007 2:32pm
Quoting fxgorilla
I've just started to do a manual backtest for 2005 using Alpari hourly data and the original rules. So far I've completed Jan & Feb 2005, and have ended up with 43 trades, of which only 7 were profitable. In January there were 20 consecutive stop outs. I've attached an Excel spreadsheet, so that maybe someone can take a look and see if I've got something not quite right. I tested using both a 30 pip stop and a 40 pip stop, and in every case that the 30 was hit, the 40 was also triggered.
20 consecutive stop outs is a little discouraging if the testing was correct.
Life is too short to have anything but delusional notions about yourself.
  • #845
  • Feb 3, 2007 3:47pm Feb 3, 2007 3:47pm
Quoting fxgorilla
I've just started to do a manual backtest for 2005 using Alpari hourly data and the original rules. So far I've completed Jan & Feb 2005, and have ended up with 43 trades, of which only 7 were profitable. In January there were 20 consecutive stop outs. I've attached an Excel spreadsheet, so that maybe someone can take a look and see if I've got something not quite right. I tested using both a 30 pip stop and a 40 pip stop, and in every case that the 30 was hit, the 40 was also triggered.
Interesting find - I seem to remember that early 2005 was very unkind to trending systems (the collapse of diamond forex springs to mind, which used a similar method to the tk weekly system). tk does say that you should allow for this however and it confirms that taking regular smaller profits using 2 lots, as they are generated, even more sensible. Markets will always surprise and can very easily spend a few months rangebound especially, as we are witnesssing at the moment, strong US and UK economic news producing a bit of an overall stalemate..
  • #846
  • Feb 3, 2007 4:07pm Feb 3, 2007 4:07pm
Quoting petersurrey
Interesting find - I seem to remember that early 2005 was very unkind to trending systems (the collapse of diamond forex springs to mind, which used a similar method to the tk weekly system). tk does say that you should allow for this however and it confirms that taking regular smaller profits using 2 lots, as they are generated, even more sensible. Markets will always surprise and can very easily spend a few months rangebound especially, as we are witnesssing at the moment, strong US and UK economic news producing a bit of an overall stalemate..

I'd also like to see how the testing worked out for the rest of that year. The second half of 2005 trended quite a bit. It looks like there was a +500 pip week in June.
Life is too short to have anything but delusional notions about yourself.
  • #847
  • Feb 3, 2007 8:36pm Feb 3, 2007 8:36pm
Quoting fxgorilla
I've just started to do a manual backtest for 2005 using Alpari hourly data and the original rules. So far I've completed Jan & Feb 2005, and have ended up with 43 trades, of which only 7 were profitable. In January there were 20 consecutive stop outs. I've attached an Excel spreadsheet, so that maybe someone can take a look and see if I've got something not quite right. I tested using both a 30 pip stop and a 40 pip stop, and in every case that the 30 was hit, the 40 was also triggered.
how do you get your alpari hourly charts back to jan 2005?
I could only get back that far on daily charts and jan would have been ok with a bigger stoploss and the 2 position stragedy take 80 or 100 p1ps on one letting second one run with b/e stop loss
just my 2 cents
  • #848
  • Feb 3, 2007 8:36pm Feb 3, 2007 8:36pm
Straddle & Trail 1.mq4

I currently use this EA to trade news and and straddle for Asian open, it is set up for multiple lots and final lot goes to TP or stopped out manually. I just found this thread today. Hope this will help. Iv'e been using it live. for 2 weeks now. Test on demo before going live!
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 Straddle & Trail 1.mq4   50 KB | 1,033 downloads
  • #849
  • Feb 3, 2007 8:39pm Feb 3, 2007 8:39pm
Can you give us an idea of your results so far...and any backtesting info you have...

Thanks for the ea...
  • #850
  • Feb 3, 2007 10:42pm Feb 3, 2007 10:42pm
Yes, in fact there were several weeks that were up 100+ pips in profit, only to be stopped out before Friday. I'll do a 2nd run with a 2 lot system, as well as finish the rest of 2005 later this week...

Quoting petersurrey
Interesting find - I seem to remember that early 2005 was very unkind to trending systems (the collapse of diamond forex springs to mind, which used a similar method to the tk weekly system). tk does say that you should allow for this however and it confirms that taking regular smaller profits using 2 lots, as they are generated, even more sensible. Markets will always surprise and can very easily spend a few months rangebound especially, as we are witnesssing at the moment, strong US and UK economic news producing a bit of an overall stalemate..
Michael fxgorilla
  • #851
  • Feb 3, 2007 10:52pm Feb 3, 2007 10:52pm
I was able to simply scroll back to 2005 using the hourly. Not sure about this, but try going to your TOOLS > OPTIONS > CHARTS and then increasing the MAX BARS IN HISTORY. Mine is set to 51200.

Also, when using the dailies even with a larger stop, it's impossible to tell how many times price may have whipsawed for the day which could result in numerous stop-outs. There are even some hourly bars were multiple stop-outs may have occurred.

Quoting kingcrab
how do you get your alpari hourly charts back to jan 2005?
I could only get back that far on daily charts and jan would have been ok with a bigger stoploss and the 2 position stragedy take 80 or 100 p1ps on one letting second one run with b/e stop loss
just my 2 cents
Michael fxgorilla
  • #852
  • Edited 12:44am Feb 4, 2007 12:33am | Edited 12:44am
Live results
gbp-jpy Jan 22-26 entry=50 sl=30 trail=100 lots=3 +228 pips
Jan29-Feb2 entry=50 sl=30 trail=75 lots=3 +190 pips

eur-jpy Jan 22-26 entry=30 sl=30 trail=75 lots=3 +143 pips Jan29-Feb2 entry=30 sl30 trail=50 lots=3 +84 pips

manual backtest
weekly for gbp (31 weeks) 18 wins 13 losses
daily for gbp-103 wins 56 losses

I havn't had time to figure out total pips yet. Still working on best parameters to use. Hope this helps. I will keep following this thread and anything I figure out that might be helpful I will add to the thread. Thanks all of you for the great info.
  • #853
  • Feb 4, 2007 12:48am Feb 4, 2007 12:48am
Quoting paparich
Straddle & Trail 1.mq4

I currently use this EA to trade news and and straddle for Asian open, it is set up for multiple lots and final lot goes to TP or stopped out manually. I just found this thread today. Hope this will help. Iv'e been using it live. for 2 weeks now. Test on demo before going live!

The version you have is 3 something. Here is 5.0, Yanis (author) just posted it few days ago on the Yahoo board.

Mario
Attached File(s)
File Type: doc Straddle.doc   73 KB | 1,600 downloads
File Type: ex4 Straddle_Trail v5.00.ex4   62 KB | 899 downloads
  • #854
  • Feb 4, 2007 4:49am Feb 4, 2007 4:49am
Good stuff....thanks for the ea and docs.

Have you been using it, and what kind of results have you been getting?

Thanks for your contribution...looks like a very useful tool.
  • #855
  • Feb 4, 2007 5:02am Feb 4, 2007 5:02am
Looks like the daily system is far outperforming the weekly from your backtests...

Do you have it set up for the daily or weekly system...or is that determined by the ea (trailing stops etc)?

Thanks again for the contribution.
  • #856
  • Feb 4, 2007 9:37am Feb 4, 2007 9:37am
Quoting paparich
Straddle & Trail 1.mq4

I currently use this EA to trade news and and straddle for Asian open, it is set up for multiple lots and final lot goes to TP or stopped out manually. I just found this thread today. Hope this will help. Iv'e been using it live. for 2 weeks now. Test on demo before going live!
EA for tkimble strategy

paparich ..... Thank You .... for the MQ4 adjustable EA .... this is so much better than an EXE FILE as now the parameters can be changed, if need be!

Please keep us updated as per your sucess using the EA!!!


As I keep saying .... I trade like a mechanical Robot without any emotions!
It ain't no lie .... I am an EA!

-
  • #857
  • Edited 11:37am Feb 4, 2007 10:08am | Edited 11:37am
there were weeks when price went up and down like crazy, just enough to hit SL and trigger another transaction... and then drive to the next SL... very frustrating. i've seen that especially with GBP-JPY for a couple of weeks during the last 6 months - and still, at the end of this period the profit was still significant, a couple of times more than the initial.
well, 2 solutions for that: either you manually take some profits along the way or use a trailing stop, depends on how much time you have to spend in front of your computer. if you feel like you want to continue after that, it's up to you. that's what i did this week, and i got more than 100 pips profit - it wouldn't have worked like this with the original method.
i think it's safer to take some profits rather than wait for the big chunks. but that's just me.

Quoting fxgorilla
Yes, in fact there were several weeks that were up 100+ pips in profit, only to be stopped out before Friday. I'll do a 2nd run with a 2 lot system, as well as finish the rest of 2005 later this week...
Nihil Sine Deo.
  • #858
  • Edited 12:42pm Feb 4, 2007 11:57am | Edited 12:42pm
This is some information I have on gbpusd. Still needing to tweek it but have come up with some interesting and helpful tips.
When it moves 0-9 pips from the days opening the probability of it reversing the trend is 75%.

When it moves 10-19 pips from the days opening the probability of it reversing the trend is 55%.

When it moves 20-29 pips from the days opening the probability of it reversing the trend is 40 %.

When it moves 30-39 pips from the days opening the probability of it reversing the trend is 25%.

When it moves 40-49 pips from the days opening the probability of it reversing the trend is 13%.

When it moves 50-59 pips from the days opening the probability of it reversing the trend is 8%.

When it moves 60-69 pips from the days opening the probability of it reversing the trend is 4%.

When it moves 70 pips from the days opening the probability of it reversing the trend is less then 1%.

Here is the post for Credit to the Author:
http://forexfactory.com/showpost.php...2&postcount=11

Interesting ...
  • #859
  • Feb 4, 2007 12:39pm Feb 4, 2007 12:39pm
The EA you have does exactly what I wish mine did. Could you attach the mq4 file or tell us the yahoo board where you found it. I'm anxious to give it a try. thanks

Rich
  • #860
  • Feb 4, 2007 1:07pm Feb 4, 2007 1:07pm
Quoting ut2DaMax
This is some information I have on gbpusd. Still needing to tweek it but have come up with some interesting and helpful tips.
When it moves 0-9 pips from the days opening the probability of it reversing the trend is 75%.

When it moves 10-19 pips from the days opening the probability of it reversing the trend is 55%.

When it moves 20-29 pips from the days opening the probability of it reversing the trend is 40 %.

When it moves 30-39 pips from the days opening the probability of it reversing the trend is 25%.

When it moves 40-49 pips from the days opening the probability of it reversing the trend is 13%.

When it moves 50-59 pips from the days opening the probability of it reversing the trend is 8%.

When it moves 60-69 pips from the days opening the probability of it reversing the trend is 4%.

When it moves 70 pips from the days opening the probability of it reversing the trend is less then 1%.

Here is the post for Credit to the Author:
http://forexfactory.com/showpost.php...2&postcount=11

Interesting ...
Hi ALL,

Does it mean that original TK variant (+/- 50 pips straddle) is actual again??

Thank you
Igor
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