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Knowledge is Power

  • #341
  • Jun 19, 2008 7:34am Jun 19, 2008 7:34am
will be break the 12000 support in DOW ? mmmmm
  • #342
  • Jun 19, 2008 7:35am Jun 19, 2008 7:35am
Quoting Warren Forex
Over 390,000 Should send USD/JPY lower ! Over 400,000 will surprise the market and be negative for Dow and US Dollar. The reverse is true under 375,000 !

Stay Tuned and Philly FED at 10:00 AM can also shake things up !!!


Bruce
It was - 5000 to 381,000 Consensus was 386,000 Not 375,000

The Big Number could BE Philly FED !!!


Bruce
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  • #343
  • Jun 19, 2008 7:38am Jun 19, 2008 7:38am
That is what caused the Jump Up ! Done Now High 108.02


Bruce
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  • #344
  • Jun 19, 2008 8:26am Jun 19, 2008 8:26am
Quoting Warren Forex
That is what caused the Jump Up ! Done Now High 108.02


Bruce
I think lots of ppl Push up t DJ and USD??

sonic
  • #345
  • Jun 19, 2008 8:47am Jun 19, 2008 8:47am
Philly FED in 15 Minutes is next Event Risk !

A VERY BAD Under Consensus Philly FED sends US to The Promised Land if you are short USD/JPY !!!
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  • #346
  • Jun 19, 2008 8:50am Jun 19, 2008 8:50am
Quoting Warren Forex
Philly FED in 15 Minutes is next Event Risk !

A VERY BAD Under Consensus Philly FED sends US to The Promised Land if you are short USD/JPY !!!
If you are short? Promised land as shorting this pair will be good.
  • #347
  • Jun 19, 2008 8:54am Jun 19, 2008 8:54am
the second failed attempt to break the 12000 established 12000 as a good support now... mmmmmm
  • #348
  • Jun 19, 2008 9:01am Jun 19, 2008 9:01am
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
http://forexfactory.com/images/misc/...etail_star.gif -17.1

dow -28.91 / -0.24%
  • #349
  • Jun 19, 2008 9:02am Jun 19, 2008 9:02am
Well The Dow is DOWN 40

Time To See What Happens Now !

Bruce
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  • #350
  • Jun 19, 2008 9:03am Jun 19, 2008 9:03am
11,988.26-40.80 / -0.34%
  • #351
  • Jun 19, 2008 9:07am Jun 19, 2008 9:07am
ok fed number help to break the support
  • #352
  • Jun 19, 2008 9:24am Jun 19, 2008 9:24am
BIG FIGHT !
  • #353
  • Jun 19, 2008 10:27am Jun 19, 2008 10:27am
prepare for the recession....
  • #354
  • Jun 19, 2008 12:18pm Jun 19, 2008 12:18pm
Let Us See Where Things Are At 2:30 PM

Bruce
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  • #355
  • Jun 19, 2008 12:41pm Jun 19, 2008 12:41pm
Quoting Warren Forex
I have a confession of sorts ! I also manage positions while I trade. I use stops BUT at times like you, I do not. It has gotten me into problems at times. However now getting to a different level, I am debating on putting a maximum 100 PIP STOP on no matter what.

I learned about scaling in around two years ago when I was holding $10,000 EUR/USD for control of One Million in EUR/USD. I had $50,000 in the account of a client. $25,000 was profit and $25,000 was capital. It was 12:30 PM and Bernake spoke at some event. The EUR/USD went down about 250 PIPS in two days and my drawdown was 50% !

I ACTUALLY held the position for 21 days and it finally got about 10 PIPS over where it was before Bernake spoke. I netted about $100 after my rollover costs were covered.

After that I started buying in units of 100K so I could scale in my positions and if I ever ran into the same problem again, I could sell each block at the right time or trade around my 100K drawdown position.

I learned many new things in the last two years !


Bruce

I scale positions out at certain pip gains ( 40 - 60 - 80 etc...) Just depends on price action and S & R levels. I also reset stops to profit levels based on that too. Just really depends on price action.

For example. I was long 10% exposure on kiwi dollar from 7497. At 7610 I liquidated 50% of the position and reset my stop to 7530.

I've been holding short on USD/JPY from 107.55 so it shows negative right now - We'll see. I'm speculating there will not be a solid break above 108.56. There is quite a bit of historical congestion at these levels, so a break below 105 could warrant swift moves to 100.

Bruce, I'm sure you know by now; be careful with initial exposure as there is always the possibility there could be a big move against you. You can always add to your winning positions on pullbacks and comfirmations of the trend.

Happy trading my friend
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  • #356
  • Jun 19, 2008 12:59pm Jun 19, 2008 12:59pm
Quoting sleep1Iopen
I scale positions out at certain pip gains ( 40 - 60 - 80 etc...) Just depends on price action and S & R levels. I also reset stops to profit levels based on that too. Just really depends on price action.

For example. I was long 10% exposure on kiwi dollar from 7497. At 7610 I liquidated 50% of the position and reset my stop to 7530.

I've been holding short on USD/JPY from 107.55 so it shows negative right now - We'll see. I'm speculating there will not be a solid break above 108.56. There is quite a bit of historical congestion at these levels, so a break below 105 could warrant swift moves to 100.

Bruce, I'm sure you know by now; be careful with initial exposure as there is always the possibility there could be a big move against you. You can always add to your winning positions on pullbacks and comfirmations of the trend.

Happy trading my friend


The stalling by multi-day channel highs which also coincide with the 200-Day SMA has opened the door for a potential resumption of setbacks. The pair has failed to close above the 200-Day SMA on multiple attempts and stochastics are now showing a negative cross in overbought territory. Look for intial return to 106.05-25 over the coming days. Abv 108.60 negates. (JK) 17:30 GMT



Bruce
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  • #357
  • Jun 19, 2008 1:11pm Jun 19, 2008 1:11pm
Quoting Warren Forex
The stalling by multi-day channel highs which also coincide with the 200-Day SMA has opened the door for a potential resumption of setbacks. The pair has failed to close above the 200-Day SMA on multiple attempts and stochastics are now showing a negative cross in overbought territory. Look for intial return to 106.05-25 over the coming days. Abv 108.60 negates. (JK) 17:30 GMT



Bruce
You the man my friend . Good place to add to the exposure there (when there is confirmation). I was targeting 106.5 before resetting the SL to profit.

Happy trading
  • #358
  • Jun 19, 2008 1:51pm Jun 19, 2008 1:51pm
http://us.mc362.mail.yahoo.com/mc/sh...rand=164692389

Snippet:

Action Insight Mid-Day Report

More Technical Analysis Reports Here
Dollar Mixed, Sterling and Loonie Boosted by Data

Dollar is generally mixed today. On the one hand, the greenback weakens against Sterling and Canadian dollar after both currencies are lifted by solid data today. On the other hand, the dollar is helped by strength in Sterling and rebounds strongly against both Euro and Swissy. Jobless claims came in at 381k, slightly worse than expectation of 375k and triggers little reaction in the market. Focus will turn to Philly Fed survey to be released later in the US morning.
Sterling is boosted sharply higher earlier today by much stronger than expected retail sales report. sales grew 3.5% mom in May, the most since 1986, pushing yoy rate to 8.1%, much stronger than consensus of -0.1% mom and 4.1% yoy. The data argues that UK consumer spending is still robust despite sluggish rate growth and inflation. Also, the data lifts some hope for BoE to raise rate to curb the persistently high inflation but it remains premature to draw conclusion based on just one piece of data. Nevertheless, the pound surges against most currencies today. In particular, European majors including euro and swissy are both dragged down by selling in respective sterling crosses.
Canadian dollar also climbs after stronger than expected consumer inflation data released today. Headline CPI accelerate for the second consecutive month, and at a much faster than expected pace, from 1.7% yoy to 2.2% yoy in May. Though, core CPI remains unchanged at 1.5%. The data provided the solid bullet for BoC to kept rates on hold last week and is supportive to BoC to refrain from further rate cut in view of rising inflationary pressure.
SNB left three-month Libor unchanged at 2.25-3.25%, with mid point at 2.75%. The accompanying statement noted that there is a general increase in inflation since "the global economy remains robust and the price of oil has continued to climb" even though economic activity slowed down. FInancial markets are "less turbulent". Real GDP forecasts in 2008 was unchanged at 1.5-2.0%, but inflation forecast is up to 2.7% SNB expected that with current Libor rate of 2.75%, inflation will ease back to 1.7% in 2009 and 1.3% in 200.
USD/CAD Mid-Day Outlook



Bruce
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  • #359
  • Jun 19, 2008 2:31pm Jun 19, 2008 2:31pm
High for the day on USD/JPY is 108.08 and Low overnight was 107.41

Oil is down $4.61 due to news from China ! Gold is Up $8.40 to $901.90 and the 2 Year US Bonds are at a Yield of 2.97% The Dow is UP 63 Points.

So money is going out of US Bonds and going out of Oil and into Gold, and the Dow !

The USD/JPY is weak under 108.00 ! The economy did not see great news today. I see USD/JPY more likely to head towards 107.41 overnight but there are no guarantees. I think tomorrow is Triple Witching Hour in the NY Markets and there could be unusual movements. Will the Nikkei recover overnight ? What will Europe do ? Watch the NY close !

There is data out overnight so check that. I am short 10 positions of 100K of USD/JPY at a margin utilization of 9.49% of my capital now up to $111,661.10 US from a start of $100,000.00 US on June 9, 2008.

Has anyone got their demo account ready for trading as yet ? If you are ready, post on this thread so I can organize things. ALL Demo accounts using the FX Solutions platform will be funded with $100,000.00 US Dollars just like mine is.

I would like to have at least 12 of you to teach using the Demo Account !!!

My own goal is to generate 30% Net Profits a month. For my Pupils I would hope they reach 10% a month. Please behave in class and once a week you can bring me a shiny green apple !!!


Bruce
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  • #360
  • Jun 19, 2008 2:34pm Jun 19, 2008 2:34pm
Date: 2008/06/19Time: 19:16 (GMT +2)Ticker: JPYLast: 107.95Pivot: 107.751st sup.107.752nd sup.107.423rd sup.107.21st res.108.352nd res.108.63rd res.109.1Title: USD/JPY intraday: Continuation of the rebound.Summary: Update on supports and resistances.Story: Pivot: 107.75

Our preference: Long positions above 107.75 with targets @ 108.35 & 108.6 in extension.

Alternative scenario: Below 107.75 look for further downside with 107.42 & 107.2 as targets.

Comment: The RSI is bullish and calls for further upside.
http://www.tradingcentral.com/chart/...0619131558.GIF
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