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Knowledge is Power

  • #301
  • Jun 18, 2008 1:05pm Jun 18, 2008 1:05pm
Quoting Warren Forex
When I traded the $100,000 US Dollars account where I did the 693 FX trades of 100K in a row without a loss and had rollover costs of $18,000 or so to NET $19,226.02 US Dollars in 5 weeks, I had drawdowns of 25%

When I trade I do not see it as money and I am NEVER affected like most are.

Best regards

Bruce

Now If Only some of you non experts would let me try to teach you to make 10% a month using a demo account to start, I would be more happy than bragging about how many demo trades in a row I can make without a loss.
that's good... not to see it as money.. I also try to do it...
also.. don't see me as non expert... I don't know you but while I don't consider me an expert yet. I'm far from non expert.

your trading style reminds me to George Soros style. Betting for a fundamental situation in the long term... and tryin to catch the turnaround in the market. I admire that. I just can't do it. or don't have patience.
  • #302
  • Jun 18, 2008 1:11pm Jun 18, 2008 1:11pm
Quoting emda
that's good... not to see it as money.. I also try to do it...
also.. don't see me as non expert... I don't know you but while I don't consider me an expert yet. I'm far from non expert.

your trading style reminds me to George Soros style. Betting for a fundamental situation in the long term... and tryin to catch the turnaround in the market. I admire that. I just can't do it. or don't have patience.
My belief is that it's important to be a fusion trader. Using fundamentals to find direction and technicals to open trades based on price action.
  • #303
  • Jun 18, 2008 1:59pm Jun 18, 2008 1:59pm
Quoting bristolxyz
Bruce,


I'm curious, how much "BUY" power do you think it takes to move the JPY 4 or 5 pips? I mean how much volume do you think it would take?

regards,

Bristol

When it is quiet, maybe $25,000,000 US and maybe $50,000,000 US during peak times. Whrn I have One Hundred Million to manage, I will let you know !


Bruce
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  • #304
  • Jun 18, 2008 2:05pm Jun 18, 2008 2:05pm
Quoting sleep1Iopen
100% agree. Its not about a home run.....but consistancy. I try to do 0.5% or 1% a night. This is the right way to trade and eliminate the stress associated with our profession.

P.S. Still holding USD/JPY short from 108.49 (6% account exposure). Target is 106.50 where I will eliminate 50% of the position. SL is 108.75. The key is also risk to reward.
You are a better trader than I am in some ways for sure. The way that you trade is the way I want to trade with a longer term trade period. I have been doing so good day trading that I have neglected the way that you trade. Your STOP is perfect and your Limit out is Perfect !

Do you use Stops and if so how many PIPS above the locked in PROFIT do you keep your Stop ?

Nice to see you posting here.


Bruce
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  • #305
  • Edited 2:12pm Jun 18, 2008 2:10pm | Edited 2:12pm
Quoting emda
that's good... not to see it as money.. I also try to do it...
also.. don't see me as non expert... I don't know you but while I don't consider me an expert yet. I'm far from non expert.

your trading style reminds me to George Soros style. Betting for a fundamental situation in the long term... and tryin to catch the turnaround in the market. I admire that. I just can't do it. or don't have patience.
Emda

I did not mean you in my comment about Non Expert ! I just did not want to presume that I could teach you to make 10% a month. Since I was answering your post, I was calling you a knowledgable trader.

Maybe you can help me in my trading. I still have lots to learn but each day I learn some more.

I wonder if the Technical Indicators that I use could be improved ?

I use the Bollinger Bands with EMA and SAR.

Down below I use Awesome Indicator, MACD, RSI and CCI !

Any thoughts on this ?

Bruce
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  • #306
  • Edited 2:39pm Jun 18, 2008 2:36pm | Edited 2:39pm
USD/JPY Daily

Resistance 3: 109.20
Resistance 2: 108.80
Resistance 1: 108.50/60
Latest New York: 107.95
Support 1: 107.60/70
Support 2: 107.20/30
Support 3: 106.80



Comments
Exponential reversal signal overnight, need to sell the rate. Close under
the 108.00 area significant; look to add if rate can hit the stops in the
107.40/50 area near-term. Some topping seen; expect volatility. Today's
close under the 200 bar MA likely to draw some sympathy selling but watch
volumes. Bids appear solid but so do offers; exporters on the offer all the
way to the top overnight and active the past several days. Option defense
noted at 107.80 through 108.20; but that has fallen this morning. Technical
traders note fib defense area around today's highs and never forget that the
fundamentals haven't changed one bit in the last week or so. USD likely not
this strong but more benefiting from Yen weakness. Can the rate top at the
108.50 area? Stops likely rolled up under the 107.40 area again for today so
if a break happens-look for a drop to the 106.00 handle fairly quickly.
Bulls likely to take gains by end of day if rumored stops above the
108.60/70 area are left untouched.

http://www.forexrate.co.uk/news/index.php?itemid=1739
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  • #307
  • Jun 18, 2008 3:43pm Jun 18, 2008 3:43pm
Quoting Warren Forex
I have just completed my first 103 FX Demo Trades of 100K using the FX Solutions Demo Platform. I tried every which way but Sunday and I cannot seem to lose a trade. I know some posters here on this Forex Factory FX Forum get upset when I keep showing how good I am only based on my results of course.

The Net Profit after Carrying or Rollover costs is now $11,188.90 and the CASH DEMO Balance is of course, $111,188.90

I have 10 open positions of USD/JPY at a average scale in cost of 107.24

Here is the PDF file of ALL my 113 FX trades. I promise I will try harder to lose a trade soon.

Bruce
Hi Bruce,
I didn't reply your previous post so i'll do it now. I don't want you to make a lose a trade. I think that you didn't understand what i wanted to say. Perhaps it happened because my English is not enough to to express my thoughts.
I only want to say that if you tells everyone that you are 100% winner many people will take you for a huffy prat.
Probably you remember what happened on USD/JPY thread when you post your score.
Many persons don't want to be reconciled with a fact around are different better from them with trade. And when somebody so appears is becoming the aim of the attack. It isn't good idea to say people that you're better then they with posting your score.
And that is what i wanted to say yesterday.

I think you are good with trading i'll still read this topic, because i hope that i can learn form you.

Respectfully Yours

Rafael
  • #308
  • Jun 18, 2008 5:17pm Jun 18, 2008 5:17pm
Quoting Draco
Hi Bruce,
I didn't reply your previous post so i'll do it now. I don't want you to make a lose a trade. I think that you didn't understand what i wanted to say. Perhaps it happened because my English is not enough to to express my thoughts.
I only want to say that if you tells everyone that you are 100% winner many people will take you for a huffy prat.
Probably you remember what happened on USD/JPY thread when you post your score.
Many persons don't want to be reconciled with a fact around are different better from them with trade. And when somebody so appears is becoming the aim of the attack. It isn't good idea to say people that you're better then they with posting your score.
And that is what i wanted to say yesterday.

I think you are good with trading i'll still read this topic, because i hope that i can learn form you.

Respectfully Yours

Rafael
The only reason that I post here is to be helpful to others. It does also help me focus my trade ideas by writing down my thought. I will lose a trade whenever I see a position that I need to cut my loss on. My style of FX trading allows me to win over 80% of my trades. Thanks for your comments and anything I can do to help you then I will try.


Bruce
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  • #309
  • Jun 18, 2008 5:19pm Jun 18, 2008 5:19pm
Quoting emda
prepare for the big crash...
I hope dow is going to reach 12000 today
it touched the 12000
hehe
  • #310
  • Edited 5:57pm Jun 18, 2008 5:53pm | Edited 5:57pm
http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

The economy is likely to contract significantly as it has in the past with crude advancing as it is, as there are already visible cracks in various areas of the economy. For example, we have reached new lows in the Consumer Confidence Expectations Index, National Association of Home Builders Housing Market Index, and the National Restaurant Association’s Restaurant Performance Index. These three indexes clearly show how much damage has been done over the last two years from a housing depression coupled with an energy shock.


Bruce
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  • #311
  • Edited 5:59pm Jun 18, 2008 5:54pm | Edited 5:59pm
http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/ed...2008/0618.html

1. Summer Lull – as the chart shows, Gold typically moves flat to lower during the middle four months of the year. And even as the global banking crisis hit in August 2007, a hugely bullish event for Gold's Safe Haven Appeal, it still took another six weeks before gold started to vault higher;
2. Pre-Empting the Bounce – prior to last year's jump – sparked by the US Federal Reserve slashing the cost of borrowing below the rate of consumer-price inflation – the Gold Price had dipped below its 200-day average seven times during this bull market so far.
Buy Gold now, in other words, and a keen market timer might well have to endure a further drop first, even if the apparent magic of the 200-day average does come good once again.
But with the 200-day moving average now just above the $850 level, longer-term investors who've been considering a purchase – but were put off the huge volatility of 2008 to date – might want to stop waiting around. Precisely because larger investors are sitting it out, and precisely because technical analysts like the UBS team are pointing to a possible dip before advising you buy.
You see, that price of $850 marked the bottom of gold's fast & furious sell-off in March. It was also the previous bull market's top, hit just as Soviet tanks rolled into Afghanistan on 21 Jan. 1980. So a return to prices below that level might actually signal a longer term drop. If the price is to push higher from here instead, a drop below $850 might be a long time in coming.
Hanging on for another pullback from today's current Gold Price and so trying to nick a little extra off your investment outlay might prove expensive, in short. If you're looking to take a position in Gold for longer-term or deeper fundamental reasons, the kind of low-profile flat action we're seeing this June could offer your best chance to get in.
Just ask anyone who tried to wait for a pullback once the last surge in Gold Prices had started in Sept. '07.


Bruce
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  • #312
  • Edited 6:02pm Jun 18, 2008 5:55pm | Edited 6:02pm
http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/ed...2008/0618.html

Snippet:

This puts the G-8 delegates into a difficult quandary. If they follow America’s lead to lower interest rates to avoid recession, they risk unleashing inflation, which is already a major problem the world over. If they indicate increased rates, to curb inflation, they risk driving America into a severe recession. Similarly, to engage in a program of currency intervention to support the dollar (which the United States lacks the means or desire to do unilaterally) involves the prospect for even greater accumulation of dollar reserves, which has already proven to be a huge drain on national balance sheets.
So what did the G-8 do? They talked and did little. Admittedly, they discussed some laudable issues like world poverty and green alternative energy (which will most likely be the next government financed asset boom). But there was no indication of likely action.
Instead, the G-8 policy statement that emerged at the meeting’s end included no mention of lax lending in the United States or of irresponsible central bank liquidity injections, or even of America’s freeze of on-shore oil drilling. Instead, the G-8 took sideswipes at non-G-8 members, including unbridled criticism of the oil producing countries. U.S. Secretary of State Hank Paulson had the temerity to maintain that higher oil prices were due not just to changes in supply and demand, but also to a failure by oil-rich nations to build enough wells and refineries. Talk about the pot calling the kettle black!
All-in-all, it was deeply concerning to witness the G-8’s inability to decide upon real initiatives but, instead, to seek to blame others. It pointed to the fact that the severe problems currently faced by holders of U.S. dollars are likely to continue into the future.


Bruce
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  • #313
  • Jun 18, 2008 6:18pm Jun 18, 2008 6:18pm
I now know of two posters here who have or are opening up a $100,000 US Demo account using the same platform that I am using. Anyone else interested just post your interest here on this thread.

This should be a lot of fun for all that come to this thread to learn how to improve their FX trading. I am going to share all my knowledge with anyone who wants to learn.

We can all follow along by watching the results of their trades.

My greatest pleasure would be to get at least a dozen people to constantly make at least 10% profit a month. So the GOAL for all that open the Demo account will be 10% a month or $10,000 US Dollars in profits.

I am ready to share all my knowledge and strategy if you are willing to work hard over the next three months to learn how to be a financial winner like I am.

Please do not think that I am the expert as many others here can also help out with information.

Let us ALL work together as a TEAM to improve our FX Trading !

The Basis for the Training is "FTP"

Fundamentals, Technicals and Perception !!!

We will also learn about Event Management and Risk Management. We will learn how to scale in our purchases in blocks of 100K up to a MAXIMUM od $20,000 US Dollars on our $100,000 US Dollars Demo Account.

We will learn when to take profits and where to place stops. We will learn about a trade plan. We will NOT OVERTRADE !!!

We will look for good opportunities to make a trade.

We will use all the tools to become part of the EXCLUSIVE 5% Club !

It is ALL FREE !!! Why ? Because G-D gave me a Blessing and I need to share it with others in order to give something back.

LET'S DO IT !!!

Bruce
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  • #314
  • Edited 6:30pm Jun 18, 2008 6:28pm | Edited 6:30pm
WWW.JSMINESET.COM

Posted On: Wednesday, June 18, 2008, 4:59:00 PM EST
http://www.jsmineset.com/spacer.gif
A Note On Trader Dan and Monty Guild
http://www.jsmineset.com/spacer.gif
Author: Jim Sinclair
http://www.jsmineset.com/spacer.gif



My Dear Friends,
To miss Trader Dan's report on the day in gold is to miss gold entirely.
To miss Monty's comments on economics is to give up an unparalleled opportunity.
I am so proud to be associated with these two gentlemen and all the others that make JSMineset as great as it is.
Everyone at JSMineset would like to thank you, the readers, for your input, unending support and words of encouragement.
You all make it worthwhile.
Gratefully yours,
Jim

Snippet:

Jim Sinclair’s Commentary
Marked down to what? Marked down to a cyberspace geek model of course. That still does not reflect real time value ($0.00), but only Geek driven hope based on false assumptions that all markets return in time to their normal equilibrium. After the 1930s what was normal or equilibrium? Maybe this time it is "ZIP" for real. Then what?
Paulson & Co. Says Writedowns May Reach $1.3 Trillion
By Tom Cahill and Poppy Trowbridge
June 18 (Bloomberg) -- John Paulson, founder of the hedge fund company Paulson & Co., said global writedowns and losses from the credit crisis may reach $1.3 trillion, exceeding the International Monetary Fund's $945 billion estimate.
``We're only about a third of the way through the writedowns,'' Paulson, 52, told the GAIM International hedge fund conference in Monaco today. ``There are a lot of problems out there and it will continue to be felt through the year. We don't see any signs of stabilizing.''
Paulson, whose New York-based company manages about $33 billion, made bets last year that subprime-mortgage debt would fall after he noticed ``bubble like'' prices. His Paulson Partners fund rose 18 percent a year since it started in 1994, and his main subprime-debt fund rose 591 percent last year. Banks and securities firm worldwide posted more than $395 billion in losses and writedowns since the subprime crisis started last year.
The U.S. is heading into a recession as falling home prices weigh on consumer spending, Paulson said. The second half of this year will be worse than the first as the economic slowdown spills into 2009. Signs of stress are ``accelerating'' in the housing market, and he's betting on falling securities prices, he said.
More…
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  • #315
  • Edited 6:36pm Jun 18, 2008 6:34pm | Edited 6:36pm
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...d=a70JZmfcakF0

Figure It Out
``The Federal Reserve's accounting policies do not currently contemplate transactions like the planned credit extension related to the acquisition of Bear Stearns by JPMorgan Chase,'' Fed spokesman David Skidmore told me. ``Federal Reserve staff is evaluating how to appropriately account for this transaction and will provide further information around the time the transaction closes.''
The worst thing the Fed could do now is resort to accounting trickery to avoid losses. If the Fed won't be marking all the Bear Stearns assets at fair value on its balance sheet, it at least should record writedowns whenever generally accepted accounting principles would require them.
The Fed also should eliminate the secrecy around its precious accounting manual. You won't find the manual on the Fed's Web site, even though it's cited by name in the Fed's financial statements. To get my copy, after the Fed's press office initially declined to provide one, I had to file a request under the Freedom of Information Act. The Fed sent me a lightly redacted version 18 days later.
To be fair, the Fed has said it will disclose the fair value of the Bear Stearns portfolio on a quarterly basis. That promise came April 3 from Timothy Geithner, the New York Fed bank's chief executive, during testimony before the Senate Banking Committee.
While that's fine, it's not enough. Good disclosure is no cure for bad accounting. And talk about a confidence killer: The last thing our financial markets need now is the knowledge that the world's most powerful central bank is fudging its figures.
If the Fed doesn't do the right thing here, we all could be in trouble.
(Jonathan Weil is a Bloomberg News columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.)
To contact the writer of this column: Jonathan Weil in Boulder, Colorado, at [color=#0000ff][email protected][/color]


Bruce
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  • #316
  • Edited Jun 19, 2008 3:12am Jun 18, 2008 6:35pm | Edited Jun 19, 2008 3:12am
I don't demo trade now...
but I could try it again... Last year I tried to demo trade on a higher timeframe and it was great.
At the beginning it was not good.. but then I tried to go for longer trades following the crisis. and I made more profits in only 2 trades. but I wouldn't stayed so long in a real account.... That's why I say that demo trading can be good but also it is not real trading. It's very difficult to see it as numbers.. not money.
  • #317
  • Jun 18, 2008 6:46pm Jun 18, 2008 6:46pm
The pair has now failed to close above the 200-Day SMA for 3 consecutive days, with the break below 107.85 Tues ending a series of 5 consec higher lows and 6 consec daily higher highs. Stochastics are now showing a negative cross in overbought territory and we look for a break back under Tuesday"s low at 107.60 to confirm the short to medium-term top. (JK) 19:19 GMT
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  • #318
  • Jun 18, 2008 6:53pm Jun 18, 2008 6:53pm
Quoting emda
I don't demo trade now...
but I could try it again... Last year I tried to demo trade on a higher timeframe and it was great. I'm going to post here my demo trades of last year.
At the beginning it was not good.. but then I tried to go for longer trades following the crisis. and I made more profits in only 2 trades. but I wouldn't stayed so long in a real account.... That's why I say that demo trading can be good but also it is not real trading. It's very difficult to see it as numbers.. not money.
We will NOT Overtrade. No trade will risk at MAXIMUM more than 5% of the capital. If we have 5 open positions of USD/JPY and we have a STOP of 50 PIPS then a loss there of 5 positions times $500 US = $2500 Loss or 2.5% of the capital.

If I can get your winning average over 60% of all trades the numbers will take care of itself.


Bruce
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  • #319
  • Edited 7:24pm Jun 18, 2008 7:11pm | Edited 7:24pm
Bruce,

Sorry to bust in, but tell me what you think of this statement..

Quote
<H3>(IGM)[DLR/YEN]'s rise to 108.44 in Ldn morning time yesterday is a bit diffi...
Quote

[DLR/YEN]'s rise to 108.44 in Ldn morning time yesterday is a bit difficult to understand, and the pair is quickly and naturally back to the 107's. Even the 3-day swap earning related buying usually seen cannot take the pair back to the 108's. The NY Dow is down to the critical 12000 level. The index has been below 120000 only in Mar and Jan for a few times, and the Dlr/Yen was down to the 95's and 105's around the same timing, so the current level is too high. Decoupling of the Yen and stocks are the explanation, but reality is the Yen is forcibly sold, and the market has eventually to find the answer to the question "which is correct, the Dow or the Yen?". Option related offers above 108.50 remain unchanged. Someone would try again to protect 107.60, but the level might give way today.
</H3>
"I spilled spot remover on my dog. He's gone now." - Steven Wright
  • #320
  • Jun 18, 2008 7:44pm Jun 18, 2008 7:44pm
Quoting bristolxyz
Bruce,

Sorry to bust in, but tell me what you think of this statement..

</H3>
You can post anytime on anything. This is OUR Thread !

My take on it is that in the quiet period the EUR/JPY had a fairly good run in that the BOJ had indicated at hold on rate increases and the ECB has said it was raising in July. There was no recent NEW Risk Aversion with Goldman Sachs earning good so there was a lot of selling of Yen to buy Euro and that brought UP USD/JPY with it. The US Dollar had a good bid tone so that in my opinion is why it was rising overnight. In the last days the Europe and Dow went down along with BAD news on JP Morgan plus the FED EX bad heads up on earnings !

I hope that gives you the information that makes some sense.

Bruce
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