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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #3,021
  • Jun 17, 2008 9:31am Jun 17, 2008 9:31am
Quoting Zoran
It's good that your friend is helping you mijamoto, but are you sure he made 10,000%? It sounds exaggerated by a couple of 0's.
Well it really sounds amazing but he did .D He is trading on stocks and options
  • #3,022
  • Jun 17, 2008 12:40pm Jun 17, 2008 12:40pm
Quoting czango
hi FTI
I have read this thread with great pleasure ,
because it is really something entirely different from " hey I have a system , follow me " threads .
What you explain is at the very basis of trading , being there at the fore front of action , many other will advocate TA , Because it sometimes work,
but in the now what works?
You reallly give a real workout of market as it happens , in the past I was lead to believe by some system sellers that its easy to make money following their system , Ha , why do they sell the system thats so profitable ?
( because they make more money selling systems than trading
I am still just thinking of entering this market , I only trade on demo ,
but thanks to you fti I have seen some light , especially this quote "

The trick is to hold very steadfast to the position allowing the snowball build on you,
the maxim is to be able to take the punches first,
once the rubber band swings back, whack them like theres no tomorrow,
within your capacity and keep taking profits along the way untill the frenzy slows off
then square down for the next attack.
Important thing is to know your limits, if you have been snooked out of step,
once you you get the chance bail out, log stock and barrel.
Try not to turn, if you do, you may become a pig."


Thank you a lot for enlightment fti ,
I salute You !
Hi czango,

Salute back, Trade well,

regards

Enjoy this

Inserted Video
  • #3,023
  • Jun 18, 2008 12:40am Jun 18, 2008 12:40am
mijamoto, congratulations and keep that positive attitude with you at all times.
Good Trading
  • #3,024
  • Jun 18, 2008 9:54am Jun 18, 2008 9:54am
Quoting Piters
try www.dukascopy.com

regards
I am trading with Dukascopy and I am very satisfied. I like that I can place my own orders in the market and I do not need to pay a spread.
  • #3,025
  • Jun 20, 2008 8:49am Jun 20, 2008 8:49am
Quoting czango
recently when there was a bad news for aus , euro started to sink along with aus , it looked like it was so connected with australian weakness ,
what do you think about it , why it happened ? Is euro so connected with aus ? or was it some other factor?
strenght of usd?

regards

czango
HI crango,

Sorry I do not deal Aus.
The connection in one word, commonwealth.

regards.
  • #3,026
  • Jun 20, 2008 8:59am Jun 20, 2008 8:59am
Quoting ksl
It is very quite in here these days.
Here is a clip I am sure all will enjoy.
http://www.simpletruths.com/nws/arc/08/080610-FJOY.htm
Hi ksl,
Thanks, the clip is nice.

BUt do remember,
for the weak motivation is enpowerment,
for the strong motivation is power.
for the right motivation , excels,
for the wrong motivation, destroys.

be careful,motivation is also a double edge sword.
It is mostly useful, but it can be abused as well.


regards
  • #3,027
  • Jun 20, 2008 9:13am Jun 20, 2008 9:13am
Quoting ksl
Thanks Zoran for fixing the picture in my head.
Reading the thread again.
Thanks
Thanks Zoran, well at least now some of us are on the same page.

ksl, although, the thread is long and slow process,
it is necessary that you should move along in it, slowly
clear understanding of the discusions before advancing,
as it is difficult to build on ,if you have missing pieces of the MO.

Pay deep attention especially in the initial stages, as the setting there is the foundation for what 's being built.

Do it at your own pace, ask questions if you must.
There's many here that can and will help, when asked.
otherwise I am still around to help where necessary. God willing

regards
  • #3,028
  • Jun 20, 2008 2:56pm Jun 20, 2008 2:56pm
Quoting fti

for the wrong motivation, destroys.

be careful,motivation is also a double edge sword.
It is mostly useful, but it can be abused as well.


regards
I never thought of it like that, u have me thinking on this one "how" - can u give me some thing more on this please.

Quoting fti
Pay deep attention especially in the initial stages, as the setting there is the foundation for what 's being built.

Do it at your own pace, ask questions if you must.
There's many here that can and will help, when asked.
otherwise I am still around to help where necessary. God willing
Thanks fti.
Thanks for being there.

Regards
  • #3,029
  • Jun 22, 2008 12:34pm Jun 22, 2008 12:34pm
fti,
I'd like your thoughts and what the general is to consider and keep in mind this up coming end of month, quarter and half year end?
  • #3,030
  • Edited 1:25am Jun 23, 2008 12:28am | Edited 1:25am
Quoting ksl
I never thought of it like that, u have me thinking on this one "how" - can u give me some thing more on this please.



Thanks fti.
Thanks for being there.

Regards
Hi ksl,
For you at this stage, you should be absolutely motivated, and game to quest the challenges.
What I am giving , is not suitable to you,
but it tickles me that you are the one who ask this question.

However if it will be of assistance to some, here goes.
"for the wrong motivation, destroys."

In trading, Qhat it means is that no trader will ever be aware that his trade direction is ultimately correct. Therefore if a trader is in a trade, it is basically conviction of his own actions (educated guess). If such trade becomes wrong to market flow, then he must have contingencies for rescue or reversal of exposure.This is a prerequsite to trading and all capital games. But of course all traders have limitations to capital resources that inhibits perpectual snowballing of risk. So a trader must have a birds eye view of his own capabilities. If traders are unable to execute at least 3 rounds of the required . then the trader have no strategic response to trading, I can't say what he is actually doing (for fear of persecution from the lurking, ), but definately no strategic money management.

In living, its influence is paramount, in that it can force traders into adversity to risk or fearless flare. Both is dangerous to the trader. It would be too long winded to go into detailed discussion of this. But to understand this, look into the lifes of people like Alexader the Greatest, Julius the Ceasar, Genghis the Kan, Napoleon Born-aparte, Hit ler, Mao Tzhe Tung, and Sad-dame Hussen/Georgie the Bush just to name a few. If you will this are people of the highest motivation. Their direction of motivation, only history judges them. Did they do right or did they folly? thats not the issue of discussion here, just that they were "most motivated" and goal directed and "did all that was needed" towards their ideals.But were they right? Thats the answer to the double edged sword question, isn't it?

So for the trader, motivation could be the life saver or the ego that destroys. Its resultant is proportionate to the skills levels of the trader, as in all professional persuits.The trick is in the equilibrium, risk vs safety(risk of ruin).

The real danger, is this. Many traders trained starts out trading well. Then as they learn new skills, what they take in, in skills they lose in empathy and humility and kindness. Ultimately leading them to their own egor and destruction. This happens to professionals in many fields, and the people I mentioned above, Sadly the people on here is not spared.

In my life time, I have seen many great traders rise, only to be taken down by themselves.Those who survives, they become not so unlike me.

No not dead,
;retired and low profiled;

regards

JFYI, trading strong USD intraday, wave 1 now complete, waiting for retrace and wave 2 attack posibilities. note trading against day trend, whiv=ch has topped against eur.So readjust the skew, please.

Sharks, miised attack by a nose, while typing this, so letting go, reassesing wave impulse and taking profits (short sword positions)now.Just life, was listening to buble's "save the last dance" and she snooked me,LOL.
  • #3,031
  • Edited 2:27am Jun 23, 2008 1:58am | Edited 2:27am
tHE usd/yen seem vv strong, so any weakness in USD intraday suggest more usd strength ahead. Although trading against trend, it seems to be the logical side to take now, only safeguard is to skew-in on the exposure incase the trend bites suddenly. Donno where the usd strength is comin from , may be profit squaring at critical tech levels. (eur/usd and cable)

watching for bus now. Wonder what's that Leighsww doing?

regards

OK here goes again, adding on to sell eur as usd/yen finale on the sweeps. Thsi Eur support seems chart critical, wonder what hides under it?
Whats london boys menu for lunch? Ben turkey or opec soup?lol
  • #3,032
  • Edited 3:13am Jun 23, 2008 2:39am | Edited 3:13am
Now , guts and glory, no guts no glory.
attack launched. Euro comes. ("comes" means I'm on top)

Now launching level 2 attack sequence. Lets see whats underneath.
Note that position spiral has gone normal from cautious skew.
  • #3,033
  • Jun 23, 2008 3:17am Jun 23, 2008 3:17am
Hello fti. Im not sure what you really meant. Does this translate into...
eurusd - short
usdjpy - long
?
  • #3,034
  • Edited 3:38am Jun 23, 2008 3:21am | Edited 3:38am
Quoting jest1081
Hello fti. Im not sure what you really meant. Does this translate into...
eurusd - short
usdjpy - long
?
Hi jest shorted Eur/usd. 1.5534-2 mio, 1.5530-1 mio, 1.5525- 1 mio
Usd yen just to help in timing of initial attack, no exposures there.

Just for info, It is very hard to lead, just showing my blotter as best I can. Be aware , this is high risk maneuver as trading against day trend.
Although I have good profits already this morning before london came in.
This is the problem, you will only see my blotter in lag time. What I am attemping to do is to show some mindset thoughts so that you may get a "feel".

This is to give you a mindset, of thought process, when attempting reversal possibilities when trading against trend.

As of now posittion @25 is prompting rescue.
Also note that cable has lead and Eur is lagging it, directional wise.
  • #3,035
  • Jun 23, 2008 3:34am Jun 23, 2008 3:34am
Fti,

Thanks for sharing your thoughts, please continue as it is very insightful,

thanks,

a

fwiw, imho it feels that euro is pulling into a 5500/5540ish range
  • #3,036
  • Jun 23, 2008 3:54am Jun 23, 2008 3:54am
imho till 1.56, maybe triangle created..

Good luck for us
  • #3,037
  • Jun 23, 2008 3:58am Jun 23, 2008 3:58am
Quoting fti
Hi jest shorted Eur/usd. 1.5534-2 mio, 1.5530-1 mio, 1.5525- 1 mio
Usd yen just to help in timing of initial attack, no exposures there.

Just for info, It is very hard to lead, just showing my blotter as best I can. Be aware , this is high risk maneuver as trading against day trend.
Although I have good profits already this morning before london came in.
This is the problem, you will only see my blotter in lag time. What I am attemping to do is to show some mindset thoughts so that you may get a "feel".

This is to give you a mindset, of thought process, when attempting reversal possibilities when trading against trend.

As of now posittion @25 is prompting rescue.
Also note that cable has lead and Eur is lagging it, directional wise.
Hi Fti,

Thanks for sharing your thoughts, its very helpful to see your thought process in real time.
  • #3,038
  • Jun 23, 2008 4:20am Jun 23, 2008 4:20am
Quoting auxesis
Fti,

Thanks for sharing your thoughts, please continue as it is very insightful,

thanks,

a

fwiw, imho it feels that euro is pulling into a 5500/5540ish range
Hi auxesis,

Actually I would be trading intothe 2nd wave downwards on the Euro, but due to my bad timing (not attentiveness due to chatting), I am positioning late. And from the form of the legs spreading out in the hourly Eur charts, I sort of expect the big moves , tom.
However i felt that, I 'll just give you guys a head, while this is forming, on how to develop that "feel for the dance" as I felt the opporyunity to do so.

I fact we should be sliding into the 00 levels, but as traders we have to deal with the now, so its a head on managing the positions.
As the thread is getting slow. I though tis would be a good chance to do some market exercises on thoughts actions and expectations( esp on how not to think like fortune tellers).

regards

By the way, I am squared at 15 , all positions, and am going for dinner now.
  • #3,039
  • Jun 23, 2008 4:29am Jun 23, 2008 4:29am
Fti,



So many times when reading in the forums or a book all the reader ever gets is the abbreviated /edited view as it's all in past time, not knocking that, but when you get the chance to see and understand the authors thoughts as price unfolds, it's like the credit card commercials......... priceless.

As the understanding is exponential.

I'm following your thought process on the charts, was interested as how you handled the position as it continued.

again thanks for taking the time to share.

regards,

a
  • #3,040
  • Jun 23, 2008 4:55am Jun 23, 2008 4:55am
Quoting fti
Hi auxesis,

Actually I would be trading intothe 2nd wave downwards on the Euro, but due to my bad timing (not attentiveness due to chatting), I am positioning late. And from the form of the legs spreading out in the hourly Eur charts, I sort of expect the big moves , tom.
However i felt that, I 'll just give you guys a head, while this is forming, on how to develop that "feel for the dance" as I felt the opporyunity to do so.

I fact we should be sliding into the 00 levels, but as traders we have to deal with the now, so its a head on managing the positions.
As the thread is getting slow. I though tis would be a good chance to do some market exercises on thoughts actions and expectations( esp on how not to think like fortune tellers).

regards

By the way, I am squared at 15 , all positions, and am going for dinner now.
Hi Fti,

I am right in assuming that the second wave downwards is on the hourly chart? we have had more then 2 waves on the 5 min chart right?

And is it beacuse the pause in the hourly does not look to be forming a kind of U shape bottom that you believe it will continue?


Trying to get that "feel for the dance" and an understanding of how to follow the flow, I always find it so useful when you share information in real time with us so thank you very much!!

"( esp on how not to think like fortune tellers)" This is so easy to do and i think i often find myself thinking like this, could you share more information on this? thanks!
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