Knowledge is Power

http://www.actionforex.com/latest-ne...2008061649811/

U.S. housing starts are expected to decline to 980K. TD Economist Millan Mulraine forecasts U.S. housing starts to decline modestly in May, following the strong 8.2% month-over-month surge in activity in April.
"The U.S. housing sector remains weak, with the overhang of unsold new homes - which now stands at 10.6 months - continuing to bear down on home building activity and prices. In addition, the number of building permits approved remains at a 17-year low. As a result, given the difficult environment that U.S. builders continue to face, we expect the downward trend in housing starts to continue in May," wrote Mulraine.
Industrial Production is expected to rise 0.1% in May. Economists at Global Economics expect a rebound in motor vehicle production and a minor recovery in manufacturing excluding vehicles to push up growth to 0.2%.
7:45 US ICSC Chain Stores Sales (M/M) Prior: +1.7%
8:30 CA International Securities Transactions April Exp: C$4.000 Prior: C$5.296
8:30 US Current Account Balance Q1 Exp: -$172.5B Prior: -$172.9B
8:30 US Producer Price Index (M/M) May Exp: +1.0% Prior: +0.2%
8:30 US PPI Ex Food & Energy (M/M) May Exp: +0.2% Prior: +0.4%
8:30 US Producer Price Index (Y/Y) May Exp: +6.8% Prior: +6.5%
8:30 US PPI Ex Food & Energy (Y/Y) May Exp: +3.0% Prior: +3.0%
8:30 US Housing Starts May Exp: +980K Prior: +1032K
8:30 US Building Permits May Exp: +959K Prior: +978K Revised: +982K
8:55 US Redbook Retail Sales (Y/Y) Prior: +2.1%
9:15 US Industrial Production May Exp: +0.1% Prior: -0.7%
9:15 US Capacity Utilization May Exp: +79.7% Prior: +79.7%
11:00 US Global Insights "Emerging Markets"
13:00 US Treasury to Sell 4-Week Bills
17:00 US ABC Consumer Confidence 15-June Exp: -45 Prior: -45
17-18 June US U.S. Treasury, Chinese Officials Meet at U.S. Naval Academy
By Steve Stecyk, [color=#0253b7][email protected][/color] This email address is being protected from spam bots, you need Javascript enabled to view it , edited by Cristina Markham, [color=#0253b7][email protected][/color] This email address is being protected from spam bots, you need Javascript enabled to view it


Bruce

Looking at the FTP video posted on this thread many times for those who have not seen it as yet, we are at the TOP of Perception. The following summary makes that clear.


10:31 GMT June 17th USD/JPY: Through the base end of today"s 108.25-107.75 Asian range in early London, filling 107.70 bids on its descent to test key 107.60 support (13 June base). Spec and commercial bids at this level thwarted further weakness, ahead of its reclamation of 108.00. USD already weaker overnight on comments in the WSJ and UK Times stating some FED officials believe the markets are getting carried away with rate hike expectations. Also weighing at the time was the EUR/JPY setback to 167.00 behind ECB member Bini Smaghi comments, although the cross has regained the mid 167"s since. That market cleared the triple top between 167.60-75 seen in October-November of last year and now eyes stops above the new 6 month high posted at 167.84 in Asia. More stops touted at 167.90 and 168.00, with large option related offers at 168.20. The headline eyes offers at 108.40 and more stops above Mon"s 108.59 peak. Dow futures are well in the black to aid support in both pairs after mild losses on the Dow and Nikkei overnight. The m/term uptrend remains intact and many players still looking for 112.00 in months ahead. [email protected].

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DX&v=s&w=5&t=l&a=2


Bruce

Here We Go !!!

Goldman Sachs numbers are good and PPI is out at 1.4% and Housing Starts out and now to try to make sense of it all. Here is a link to a interesting article.

Link:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/mai.../bcnecb116.xml

Morgan Stanley warns of 'catastrophic event' as ECB fights Federal Reserve


By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, International Business Editor

Last Updated: 1:29am BST 17/06/2008




http://www.telegraph.co.uk/styleshee...rview/form.gif Have your say http://www.telegraph.co.uk/styleshee...w/comments.gif Read comments
The clash between the European Central Bank and the US Federal Reserve over monetary strategy is causing serious strains in the global financial system and could lead to a replay of Europe's exchange rate crisis in the 1990s, a team of bankers has warned.
"We see striking similarities between the transatlantic tensions that built up in the early 1990s and those that are accumulating again today. The outcome of the 1992 deadlock was a major currency crisis and a recession in Europe," said a report by Morgan Stanley's European experts.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/gra...16/trichet.jpgJean-Claude Trichet is taking a hard line on rates
Just as then, Washington has slashed rates to bail out the banks and prevent an economic hard-landing, while Frankfurt has stuck to its hawkish line - ignoring angry protests from politicians and squeals of pain from Europe's export industry.
Indeed, the ECB has let the de facto interest rate - Euribor - rise by over 100 basis points since the credit crisis began.
Just as then, the dollar has plummeted far enough to cause worldwide alarm. In August 1992 it fell to 1.35 against the Deutsche Mark: this time it has fallen even further to the equivalent of 1.25. It is potentially worse for Europe this time because the yen and yuan have also fallen to near record lows. So has sterling.


Bruce

All the US Data is now out. The data was not positive. The Dow is up only 7 at the moment. The high for USD/JPY has been 108.40 on the FX Solutions demo platform.

Oil is down a little at $133.48 and Gold is at $883.70 down $2.60

The Yield on the 2 Year US Bonds has gone UP to 2.96% at the moment so the Bonds are being sold to bring the Yield UP 4 basis points and the money is NOT going into the Dow. The Dow looks weak at the moment. USD/JPY is holding around 108.18 Bid and a drop on the Dow of at least 100 points would must likely sent USD/JPY to test the 107.overnight low.

Watch things until NOON as Europe should be gone by then.

Sentiment is still for USD/JPY to go up BUT it FIRST needs to GET over 108.60 and at the moment, I do not see it. It comes down to the Dow and what EUR/USD does. If EUR/USD breaks over 155.50, it should send USD/JPY down.

Another point to be aware of is the possible retacing of EUR/JPY 167.58 back below 167.00

The Selling of Euro and Buying of Yen will assist USD/JPY in going down.

I am off for awhile. Post any questions, comments or suggestions here on this thread.

I am at 83 winning FX trades in a row with the cash balance at $110,158.20 and I am short 9 positions of 100k in USD/JPY with my margin utilization at 8.86% so I can enter the market to go long EUR/USD or short more USD/JPY depending on where it trades on the 5 minute chart using EMA,SAR,MACD,BB and RSI

Have A Good Morning and Day !!!


Bruce

Hi Bruce,
I read the post of this thread. Very Interesting and Information. I should says there is tons of useful information. Thanks for posting all these information and helping other trader. Your efforts are remarkable.

Here is a summary of things for the moment !!!

18:41 GMT June 17th USD/JPY opened at 108.25 in NY after trading to lows of 107.60 in NY after WSJ & UK Times articles stating some Fed officials believe the markets are getting carried away with rate hike expectations. USD/JPY shot to morning highs of 108.39 after the Goldman Sachs results underpinned US stock futures. However, US data today continued to show a weak economy with housing starts and industrial production down and headline PPI high. This helped weigh on sentiment, sending US bond yields lower and pressuring US stocks lower. This saw USD/JPY drop back to lows of 107.91.


USD/JPY selling interest continues to build on the topside but stops also
continue to build. The offers and stops start at 108.40 and extend to 108.80
with talk of barrier options at 108.70 and 109.00. Support remains at the
overnight lows of 107.60. On EUR/JPY, the cross held a tight range of 167.50-80 after the overnight surge. Offers remain at 167.90 up to 167.30 with stops mixed in as well. More stops loom at 168.40 and 168.60 and bulls are now targeting gains to 170.00 after recent gains. (rs)

I am now up to 83 winning trades in a row ...

Here is the PDF File of ALL my FX trades and open positios for your examination.

Bruce,

Indulge me with a silly question.... where does THAT INFO (DATA ON STOPS AND STARTS) come from?

Warm regards,

Bristol

Hi Bruce,
First I would like to apologize everyone fro my English.
I read this thread from several days and you make great job in my opinion. I always valued people, who try to help others. However, your posts about your winning trades in a row may discourage many people.

I hope I didn't hurt you with my words. and I still think that I can learn a lot about forex from you.

Have a nice day.

Rafael

No question you have is silly if you want to learn. On my FXCM platform I can go to the research and see where the resistance and support is for the currency pair that I trade.

I will do the Copy and Paste of what it says. It is not lined up correct but you can see the numbers.

110.10(M)Daily High Jan 9 Flat On A Failure SHORT at 108.30
open13/06/08time08:25target104.60stop108.75109.95(M)50% 124.15/95.75 Sell Failure/Buy Break 108.60(M)Feb 14 Trend High Stops Above 108.40(M)Daily High, Jun 17 Sell A failure 107.9721:40 GMT TUE 17 JUN 107.65(M)Hourly Low, Jun 12 Cover Bounce, Sell Break 107.20(M)Hourly Low, Jun 12 Cover On A Bounce 106.80(M)Daily Low, Jun 12 Cover On A Bounce 106.40(M)Previous Daily Resistance Cover On A Bounce
The market stalled Monday at the 108.60 trend high which is encouraging for our short position. On the flip side, the dip has so far been less than encouraging and bearish momentum is having difficulties in taking hold. We will consider a stop/reverse strategy above yesterdays high with a target at 109.95. Hourly support now at 107.65. (JK) 19:26 GMT

Will it help if I lose a few FX trades ? Just joking. I will try not to brag about all the winning trades and I would rather you do once I show you how to do it.

Best regards


Bruce

Bruce, I don't think there is any imp US data coming tomorrow. In that case what you think about USD/JPY and EUR/USD ??

I think JP Morgan releases their earning before the NY open in NY.

A BAD result could cause the Dow Futures to be affected.

The TOP is at 108.40 and 108.65 and Support at 107.65 and 107.50

We need to see what happens in the next 4 1/2 hours during Japan trading and the Europe open and pre open. In the absence of news lately the USD/JPY goes up over 108.00 so watch if it passes through 108.25

Watch the news wires and find a good place to short it.

I suggest you open a demo account using the same platform as I. I have arranged with Infinity to put $100,000 US in demo funds in the account. That way I can show you how to trade in blocks or units of 100K and who knows maybe one of you will learn so quickly to become better than I.

Good Trading !!!


Bruce

USD/JPY


Strategy: Bullish against 107.38, Targeting 110.00

Last week, we saw a bullish trend line guide USDJPY price action higher through the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the 12/27/07-03/17 decline near 105.20 to test the 106.00 level. We suggested going long on a pull-back to the 105.00 area targeting the 61.8% Fib level below 107.40. Instead, USDJPY marched on to break past 107 to stall ahead of daily pivot point resistance at 108.54. We see likely consolidation above the 61.8% Fib level prior to another bullish swing aiming to test the 110.00 mark. Alternatively, we may see USDJPY give up the 107.00 handle in the short term with a pull-back to trend line support in the 105.40-50 area before further upside materializes. In either case, we see the bullish bias as having been firmly established at this point.


http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/...-16-08_JPY.jpg


For more resources on the USDJPY, please visit the DailyFX Japanese Yen Currency Room.

http://www.telerate.com/article/news...43260720080615

By Joanne Morrison
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The New York Federal Reserve's closed-door rule making with top players in the massive $60 trillion credit default swaps market came under legal fire on Sunday, as a fair finance activist filed a complaint questioning why it was done in the dark.
"The Federal Reserve seems to think it can engage in rule making in secret only with the industry," said Matthew Lee, executive director of the New York-based non-profit group Inner City Press/Community on the Move.
Lee filed the administrative complaint on Sunday with both the New York Fed and the Federal Reserve Board in Washington. In the complaint, he demanded that the central bankers explain why the meetings earlier this month were private and requested copies of all communications and details about the New York Fed-sponsored talks.
Officials at the Federal Reserve could not immediately be reached for comment.
The meetings were held with more than a dozen companies led by investment bank Goldman Sachs Group Inc. The companies -- which account for the bulk of business in the $60 trillion market -- met to help set new rules for credit default swaps trading, including the establishment of a clearinghouse.
Credit default swaps are privately negotiated transactions used by companies to hedge against default risks. Over the past decade, the market has grown exponentially, from about $1 trillion to $60 trillion.
Lee, referring to the Fed-led rescue of investment bank Bear Stearns by JPMorgan Chase & Co, said, "It was one thing to bail out Bear Stearns without any comments from the public. Now the Fed is trying to bail out or benefit 17 of the largest financial institutions behind closed doors."
Citing the federal Administrative Procedures Act, he said it was illegal to have conducted the meetings.


Bruce

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

Snippet:

http://www.financialsense.com/Market...era_wrapup.gif

Today's Market WrapUp 06.17.2008 Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Barbera Archive

Disco Balls, Donna Summer, Pipeline Pressures
& the Great Housing CollapseBY FRANK BARBERA, CMT
In a session packed with a great deal of economic data, the latest thermometer readings for the US economy continue to show a patient seriously laid up in the intensive care ward. To begin with, prices continue to soar with May Wholesale prices moving ahead at the fastest pace in six months for a single month period, and with a year-over-year rate of change still running at 7.24%, the PPI remains near a multi-decade high. Entirely unreported and with the most serious implications for where things are headed next, two measures of pipeline inflation continue to remain in long term high inflation territory. To start with, if we compare Wholesale prices to Consumer Prices, the PPI less the CPI, we find that with PPI now running at 7.24% annualized and (excuse me while I cough) CPI running at 4.08%, the spread between PPI less CPI widened out this month to 2.99%, near the highest levels since the late 1980’s. A measure of Pipeline Inflation, the new highs in this gauge continue to suggest that Stagflation will be with us all for some time.

http://www.financialsense.com/Market...es/0617.h2.jpg
Above: Pipeline Inflation – PPI less CPI at a nearly 3% spread = very high.
http://www.financialsense.com/Market...es/0617.h3.jpg
Above: Soaring Crude Materials Index for PPI (thin line) versus PPI Finished Goods (thick line)

In addition to the PPI and CPI comparison, we can also examine the pipeline ‘pass thru’ within the Wholesale price chain. To this end, the forward view is quite dim indeed as Crude Materials, the first wrung in the pipeline, are moving up at an annualized (hope you are sitting down) rate of 34.15% through today’s report, compared with the 7.24% for PPI for Finished Goods. That’s a whopping 27.74% percent of forward upside pricing pressure in the pipeline more powerful than anything seen in quite some time and confirming beyond question that the late 1970’s have returned. With Donna Summer about to start a new tour in the summer months ahead, we can only wonder, will Disco balls be next?

http://www.financialsense.com/Market...es/0617.h4.jpg

Elsewhere on the ‘stagnation’ side – check that, make it the ‘contraction’ side of the economy -- we found out this morning that Housing (big surprise!) remains ultra depressed. Home Builders started construction on 3.3% fewer homes in May, with Housing Starts falling to an annual adjusted rate of 975,000, the lowest level since the last major recession seen in 1991. In addition, Building Permits fell by 1.3% in May to a seasonally adjusted rate of 969K with Permits for single family homes tumbling 4%. Finally, reflecting this ultra negative sentiment that is now the hallmark of the great Housing Collapse, the NAHB/Wells Fargo housing-market index fell by a point to 18, matching the prior record low seen in its 22-year history. The survey shows that about one in five builders think the housing market is good.

http://www.financialsense.com/Market...es/0617.h6.jpg
Above: the Wells Fargo HMI Index – Housing Confidence

In the chart above, we use the HMI (‘housing market index’) as a leading indicator for the broad trend in consumer spending. That’s right, wealth effects, positive or negative, can dictate forward spending patterns and when prices are rising, homes are going down and people don’t have enough income growth to keep up; people begin to feel poorer. In the case of the HMI, it tends to lead by several quarters the directional movement in Personal Consumption Expenditures, a fancy economic term for ‘spending.’ In the chart above, we note that with HMI plunging to new lows, the outlook ahead for the next few quarters for this 70% Consumer spending driven US economy cannot be positive.
Of course, we always marvel at how the media manages to focus on the one grain of potential good news in any economic story, while managing to ignore the other 99% of bad news. So much gets swept right past the harried US public. Take for example the Retail Sales report issued just last week. On Thursday of last week, the Department of Commerce announced that Retail Sales for May 2008 grew by 1% versus April, and grew by 2.5% compared with year earlier (May 2007) data. At first blush, many economists heralded the better than expected data as a sign that US Consumers, freshly in receipt of some $41 Billion in government stimulus payment checks, were dutifully spending their new found riches at the stores and malls of the United States. This report came on the back of a reported surge of 1.80% in retail sales in April, leading some to wonder, if Retail Sales are doing so well, how could the United States possibly be in a recession?

Snippet:

Above: New Home Sales still have a good distance to travel on the downside in order to reach the bottoming zone seen in 1966, 1970, 1974, 1979, 1981 and 1990. Downside momentum still very high.
Thus, we see no cause for a change in the overall analysis which continues to suggest that the US is falling deeper into recession, and that at present, there is no bottom in sight for either housing or the broad US economy.
At the close, stocks ended with a loss of 112.52 index points on the DJIA, with the Dow closing at 12,156.56 ending with a loss of .92%. For the S&P, Tuesday saw the index end with a loss of 9.21 index points to finish at 1350.93, while NASDAQ closed lower with a loss of 17.14 index points at 2457.64. The 10 Year Bond ended with a yield of 4.22%, down .03 basis points while nearby Gold ended at $887.00, up .70 per ounce.



Bruce

Summary:

Yen Outlook
04:24 GMT June 18th USD/JPY and JPY crosses did little today. USD/JPY looked better bid though it smoldered just below 108.00 for the most part. Some JPY crosses were a touch easier but most remained relatively buoyant near recent highs. Even GBP/JPY managed to hold not far from recent highs despite cable weakness on a very dovish BoE King letter following the CPI surge above 3%. USD/JPY was tethered to a 107.87-108.01 range with most sidelined and the focus obviously elsewhere. Orders again bracket the market with bids trailing down to 107.50 and below. Some stops are seen mixed in below 107.50 and 107.00 however. Offer topside are seen on the 108-handle and trail higher. Stops are mixed in above 108.60, presumed option barriers at 108.70 and large above 109.00. EUR/JPY traded a 167.23-62 range, a bit easier from early highs on the effects of the Bini-Smaghi comments yesterday of only one ECB hike. GBP/JPY fell from 211.34 to 210.78 but still well above 210, a point of contention on the way up. AUD/JPY remained mostly bid between 101.85-102.00 on Japanese retail demand as was NZD/JPY which traded a 81.54-71 range. [email protected]

USD/JPY hit a High of 108.15 and still looks topheavy however data is light in USA so Dow might decide direction along wih JP Morgan Earnings ...

I am still shorting until 108.65

Let's see what happens ! All Options Open !!

08:50 USD/JPY: Pushing Slowly Higher - Implied Vols at 2008 lows London, June 17. USD/JPY has marginally extended the late Asian high at 108.09 in early London Wednesday, although Offers between 108.20-30 have been making further gains a grind (108.25 the current high). General USD strength is maintaining an underlying bid tone, with setbacks restricted to 107.84 overnight and bids having been placed at 107.90 since. Stops touted at 108.50 and 108.70 and 108.80, while offers reside in front of key 109.00 option barriers. Our maturity calendars show USD 200mln 108.00 vanilla option expiries which may draw toward the 10am New York cut today. Of note is the benchmark 1 month atmf implied vol - the contract has been trading steadily lower this week and is currently at new 2008 lows around 10.25. [email protected].