Many banks were asking why I see bull market in Dollar! and my answer was simple: Economic cycle. like same way I predicted a step fall in dollar in 2001 and same time we saw bubble coming in commodities. Now still many analyst and economist believe that US Dollar will fall further but I see a most unique time coming ahead in USD.
Here what I talked last week:
[FONT='MS Reference Sans Serif','sans-serif']We have previously talked about the three major revolutions, which brought the world to where we now stand. Though we seem to be in a confusing stage in which there are several transformations occurring together, we can at least agree that capitalism is a dominant part of this era. In the last 150 years, we have moved from “Agriculture” to “Industrialization” and to the “Technology Revolution”. We are now in a different era of capitalism where financial market cycles have complete domination and playing a key role in world economy and it future. The current era is also marked by an absence of fear for authority, as well as a lack of integrity and sense of responsibility; in a word, this is despotism. This despotism is gradually but completely taking control of the world economy and it is extremely difficult to know if we shall carry on, or indeed, if we are fit to survive. After the agricultural, industrial and technological revolutions, the question is whether the current financial wheel shall be able to serve the more than 6 Billion people. As far as I can see, financial policy makers and politicians have abdicated their responsibilities and they are steering the world towards greed and uncertainty.[/font]
[FONT='MS Reference Sans Serif','sans-serif']The era of capitalism has created a bubble that makes the rich richer while the middle class continue to battle against higher living costs (which inflated by this richer group for their own benefits) to an extent of being unable to cope, thanks to the effects of rising inflation. Following the technology burst 2000, there was widespread uncertainty in the financial market, which drove powerful people to create a bubble in real estate by providing easy cash. Financial institutions and lenders began to change tact when they saw the crunch coming; and we witnessed interest rate cuts while the Federal Reserve began to dish money to financial institutions in order to stem the uncertainty but still situation is out of control. However, the low interest rates seemed not to make enough money for them and they devised ways and means of making quick bucks to cover loses and this gave birth to greed. As a result of this new born greed among the hedge funds and financial institutions herded together to bet against each other as though they were in a casino, the strongest taking away the spoils but one thing they are forgetting that they are in casino or they are gambling. Behind this game, there is an easy access to cash, thanks to the fed providing the means to gamble and create a historic bubble of inflation. Indeed, this explains why financial and banking stocks have been losing value because real money is away in gambling. The situation is very scary and I don’t know how many will come with real money from these casino or gambling room and in future where these powerful people will play once the current bubble bursts, or will new gaming room will be created for this people by policy maker.[/font]
[FONT='MS Reference Sans Serif','sans-serif']Today the common man is fighting a vicious war for survival; a worse war than the one in Iraq. For instance, People do not know up to what price people are willing or will be able to pay to fill their cars with gas. The choice confronting people now is whether to first buy gold or get food for their children. Many do not know what instrument shall be used in the future to provide better financial security for the people. Though I do not have many answers today, I see for sure that the people’s purchasing power will drop very drastically in the next three months and a sudden depression or deflation will result, but this will be short-lived. I am naturally a very optimistic person and I see the world riding through and continuing well despite the ups and downs. [/font]
[FONT='MS Reference Sans Serif','sans-serif']My most nagging worry has nothing to do with the USA, but with China, India and Europe. My prediction is that within the next three months, the GDPs of China and India will drop substantially and it will be too late by the time the rest of the world realises. Consequently, I urge that one be very cautious about where you place your money. The truth is that the USA still holds 61% of the world’s economy and if anything goes wrong with it or there is a further fall of the dollar, the world’s economy will soon be on its knees. The growth story will be finished and people China and India will talk about how to survive because burst of GDP growth. As I have said, I am an optimistic person and I see the world moving ahead despite the various ups and downs. Indeed, I am certain that the USA and the USD will survive in coming most uncertain period, but I am not so sure about Europe and some countries in Asia. If there is drought, all vegetation affected as the existing one wilts and dries, while growth of new vegetation cannot occur. Only big plants or those specially adapted can withstand and survive the effects of prolonged drought till the following rainy season. Such is the situation in the market as this analogy of the natural cycle of life is still applicable to our situation. I therefore hope that you find some answers and act accordingly.
[/font]
[FONT='MS Reference Sans Serif','sans-serif']Thanks[/font]
[FONT='MS Reference Sans Serif','sans-serif']Mahendra Sharma
[/font]
Here what I talked last week:
[FONT='MS Reference Sans Serif','sans-serif']We have previously talked about the three major revolutions, which brought the world to where we now stand. Though we seem to be in a confusing stage in which there are several transformations occurring together, we can at least agree that capitalism is a dominant part of this era. In the last 150 years, we have moved from “Agriculture” to “Industrialization” and to the “Technology Revolution”. We are now in a different era of capitalism where financial market cycles have complete domination and playing a key role in world economy and it future. The current era is also marked by an absence of fear for authority, as well as a lack of integrity and sense of responsibility; in a word, this is despotism. This despotism is gradually but completely taking control of the world economy and it is extremely difficult to know if we shall carry on, or indeed, if we are fit to survive. After the agricultural, industrial and technological revolutions, the question is whether the current financial wheel shall be able to serve the more than 6 Billion people. As far as I can see, financial policy makers and politicians have abdicated their responsibilities and they are steering the world towards greed and uncertainty.[/font]
[FONT='MS Reference Sans Serif','sans-serif']The era of capitalism has created a bubble that makes the rich richer while the middle class continue to battle against higher living costs (which inflated by this richer group for their own benefits) to an extent of being unable to cope, thanks to the effects of rising inflation. Following the technology burst 2000, there was widespread uncertainty in the financial market, which drove powerful people to create a bubble in real estate by providing easy cash. Financial institutions and lenders began to change tact when they saw the crunch coming; and we witnessed interest rate cuts while the Federal Reserve began to dish money to financial institutions in order to stem the uncertainty but still situation is out of control. However, the low interest rates seemed not to make enough money for them and they devised ways and means of making quick bucks to cover loses and this gave birth to greed. As a result of this new born greed among the hedge funds and financial institutions herded together to bet against each other as though they were in a casino, the strongest taking away the spoils but one thing they are forgetting that they are in casino or they are gambling. Behind this game, there is an easy access to cash, thanks to the fed providing the means to gamble and create a historic bubble of inflation. Indeed, this explains why financial and banking stocks have been losing value because real money is away in gambling. The situation is very scary and I don’t know how many will come with real money from these casino or gambling room and in future where these powerful people will play once the current bubble bursts, or will new gaming room will be created for this people by policy maker.[/font]
[FONT='MS Reference Sans Serif','sans-serif']Today the common man is fighting a vicious war for survival; a worse war than the one in Iraq. For instance, People do not know up to what price people are willing or will be able to pay to fill their cars with gas. The choice confronting people now is whether to first buy gold or get food for their children. Many do not know what instrument shall be used in the future to provide better financial security for the people. Though I do not have many answers today, I see for sure that the people’s purchasing power will drop very drastically in the next three months and a sudden depression or deflation will result, but this will be short-lived. I am naturally a very optimistic person and I see the world riding through and continuing well despite the ups and downs. [/font]
[FONT='MS Reference Sans Serif','sans-serif']My most nagging worry has nothing to do with the USA, but with China, India and Europe. My prediction is that within the next three months, the GDPs of China and India will drop substantially and it will be too late by the time the rest of the world realises. Consequently, I urge that one be very cautious about where you place your money. The truth is that the USA still holds 61% of the world’s economy and if anything goes wrong with it or there is a further fall of the dollar, the world’s economy will soon be on its knees. The growth story will be finished and people China and India will talk about how to survive because burst of GDP growth. As I have said, I am an optimistic person and I see the world moving ahead despite the various ups and downs. Indeed, I am certain that the USA and the USD will survive in coming most uncertain period, but I am not so sure about Europe and some countries in Asia. If there is drought, all vegetation affected as the existing one wilts and dries, while growth of new vegetation cannot occur. Only big plants or those specially adapted can withstand and survive the effects of prolonged drought till the following rainy season. Such is the situation in the market as this analogy of the natural cycle of life is still applicable to our situation. I therefore hope that you find some answers and act accordingly.
[/font]
[FONT='MS Reference Sans Serif','sans-serif']Thanks[/font]
[FONT='MS Reference Sans Serif','sans-serif']Mahendra Sharma
[/font]