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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #94,381
  • Jun 16, 2008 9:15pm Jun 16, 2008 9:15pm
Quoting rogerdoger
i believe gbp/jpy will fall within the next couple hrs
watch london open and the GBP news
  • #94,382
  • Jun 16, 2008 9:34pm Jun 16, 2008 9:34pm
Quoting katerina
Hi Rustyy,where is your TP for GJ Long?
Hi Katerina,

Well at this point I will close my longs(some of them) if a 1HR bar closes below 212.00.

I just don't see much upside on the charts past 213.50.
We have to get at least a 4HR bar to close above the Daily 200SMA at 212.30 or so and a second bar to continue for any further upside movement.

At this point I am being very conservative, from a fundamental standpoint I am a bit concerned about risk aversion. It could enter the market at anytime and we will drop hard and fast. The disconnection between equity indexes and carry trades can't last much longer.
(see http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=91719)

The FALSE dollar strength from the talking fedheads last week will only last so long. Looks like it is about running out of steam.

Any NEW bad news will cause liquidation in the carry trades. We are long overdue. DJIA can't drop over 1,000 pts and not have any affect on carries.

On the other side any OLD bad news will probably be absorbed by the market.

I will be looking at Goldman Sachs earnings in the morning, if worse than expected the dow will sell off.
If better or as expected dow will climb.

Didn't mean to be so long......

Good trading to all.
  • #94,383
  • Jun 16, 2008 9:38pm Jun 16, 2008 9:38pm
Quoting Rustyyy
Hi Katerina,

Well at this point I will close my longs(some of them) if a 1HR bar closes below 212.00.

I just don't see much upside on the charts past 213.50.
We have to get at least a 4HR bar to close above the Daily 200SMA at 212.30 or so and a second bar to continue for any further upside movement.

At this point I am being very conservative, from a fundamental standpoint I am a bit concerned about risk aversion. It could enter the market at anytime and we will drop hard and fast. The disconnection between equity indexes and carry trades can't last much longer.
(see http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=91719)

The FALSE dollar strength from the talking fedheads last week will only last so long. Looks like it is about running out of steam.

Any NEW bad news will cause liquidation in the carry trades. We are long overdue. DJIA can't drop over 1,000 pts and not have any affect on carries.

On the other side any OLD bad news will probably be absorbed by the market.

I will be looking at Goldman Sachs earnings in the morning, if worse than expected the dow will sell off.
If better or as expected dow will climb.

Didn't mean to be so long......

Good trading to all.
All the best for you....
  • #94,384
  • Jun 16, 2008 9:38pm Jun 16, 2008 9:38pm
GJ is right under the upper line of the weekly channel now.
GJ4h
http://i32.tinypic.com/14xf1ud.gif
  • #94,385
  • Jun 16, 2008 9:40pm Jun 16, 2008 9:40pm
rusty you got a time on the goldman release?
FUBAR...
  • #94,386
  • Jun 16, 2008 9:44pm Jun 16, 2008 9:44pm
Quoting ak4x
rusty you got a time on the goldman release?
0815 or 0830 EST.
They are the standard to which all other investment banks are held too.
  • #94,387
  • Jun 16, 2008 9:48pm Jun 16, 2008 9:48pm
thanks, been busy here over my uj longs... looking mo betta now.

have a strong turn on the eu 20m and mediocre turn on the 20m Uj. sometimes it helps to just hide the candles and trust the indicators. my bush pilot buddies have to do that all the time... uj just crept back up above S1.
FUBAR...
  • #94,388
  • Edited 10:07pm Jun 16, 2008 9:51pm | Edited 10:07pm
i think we should consider g-j in an uptrend until we see a reversal confirmation. for now, 213.50 is just another TP - a strong resistance, indeed, but that would be it. it might continue up, or it might change to sideways, or it can go down.
as for the dollar, it doesn't matter what fed says. it only matters what trend makers are doing. what we see on the market is their perception and their will. and for now, they are either booking profits or trying to position for the run down. at least that's how i see it.

Quoting Rustyyy
I just don't see much upside on the charts past 213.50.
We have to get at least a 4HR bar to close above the Daily 200SMA at 212.30 or so and a second bar to continue for any further upside movement.

At this point I am being very conservative, from a fundamental standpoint I am a bit concerned about risk aversion. It could enter the market at anytime and we will drop hard and fast. The disconnection between equity indexes and carry trades can't last much longer.
(see http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=91719)

The FALSE dollar strength from the talking fedheads last week will only last so long. Looks like it is about running out of steam.

Any NEW bad news will cause liquidation in the carry trades. We are long overdue. DJIA can't drop over 1,000 pts and not have any affect on carries.
Nihil Sine Deo.
  • #94,389
  • Jun 16, 2008 10:10pm Jun 16, 2008 10:10pm
Quoting Scrat
i think we should consider g-j in an uptrend until we see a reversal confirmation. for now, 213.50 is just another TP - a strong resistance, indeed, but that would be it. it might continue up, or it might change to sideways, or it can go down.
as for the dollar, it doesn't matter what fed says. it only matters what trend makers are doing. what we see on the market is their perception and their will. and for now, they are either booking profits or trying to position for the run down. at least that's how i see it.
Its been in uptrend since 200, but it's also dropped 500 pips at a time, just wonder why it just keeps going and going
  • #94,390
  • Jun 16, 2008 10:10pm Jun 16, 2008 10:10pm
eu 1 hr... resistance holding so far. break above shaded area and R1 could give us 5580-90, 38% retrace/ M4.
Attached Image
FUBAR...
  • #94,391
  • Jun 16, 2008 10:33pm Jun 16, 2008 10:33pm
great geppy is going to go sideways again isn't she
  • #94,392
  • Jun 16, 2008 10:41pm Jun 16, 2008 10:41pm
i can't believe that patter screwed me on cable. each time i make something public here it screws up. u guys are just bad luck
  • #94,393
  • Jun 16, 2008 10:41pm Jun 16, 2008 10:41pm
Quoting lilmoe
i can't believe that patter screwed me on cable. each time i make something public here it screws up. u guys are just bad luck


ohhh... goodmorning
  • #94,394
  • Jun 16, 2008 10:42pm Jun 16, 2008 10:42pm
Quoting lilmoe
ohhh... goodmorning

Harooo Mr. lilmoe
  • #94,395
  • Jun 16, 2008 10:44pm Jun 16, 2008 10:44pm
Long Term GJ Potentially Uptrend, however now I'm sideline. If oil price hit $200 Europe will fall. Major economic disaster will occur.
  • #94,396
  • Jun 16, 2008 10:48pm Jun 16, 2008 10:48pm
Quoting lilmoe
ohhh... goodmorning
Morning.. Im long EU, GU, NU, AU, for the week. Watching UJ, but UJ really starting piss me off.
  • #94,397
  • Jun 16, 2008 10:49pm Jun 16, 2008 10:49pm
Quoting Clouds
Morning.. Im long EU, GU, NU, AU, for the week. Watching UJ, but UJ really starting piss me off.
yep... still holding onto my short from last week.... still waiting for it to drop.
  • #94,398
  • Jun 16, 2008 10:57pm Jun 16, 2008 10:57pm
I just closed my long gbp/usd from 1.9640 when she hit the double sma resistance of the 22 sma and 55 sma. I could not understand anyone was short this pair yet.
  • #94,399
  • Jun 16, 2008 10:58pm Jun 16, 2008 10:58pm
Quoting ovaforty
I just closed my long gbp/usd from 1.9640 when she hit the double sma resistance of the 22 sma and 55 sma. I could not understand anyone was short this pair yet.
Maybe people bought a LOT of dollars last week, this week is sell.
  • #94,400
  • Jun 16, 2008 10:59pm Jun 16, 2008 10:59pm
i am holding my long eur/usd from 1.5468 but she touched the 100 sma. sl is +5.
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