The yens and fundamentals.....Why the continuous uptrend?

please i have been having a seriuos headache forecasting the direction of these yen pairs in relation to upcoming news. my observations are that of recent
1.yen pairs have always been on the uptrend, all of their downtrends have been shortlived. even if JPY releases a news that favours it, i still do not see any significant downtrend in the yen pairs.Please any yen sapecialists out there ? what must be responsible for these anomaly ? please expansiate, is it because of the interest rate differential ? even if it is , wnat of those periods they went thru a long term downtrend ?

The Yen pairs are ALWAYS in the buy mode -- MOST OF THE TIME. But 2 times a year, the pairs will "unwind" (carry trade unwind) in a deep market correction. This occurs right after Jan 1 or so, and also at the end of June or in July.

Example" Last June 20 (or so) EUR/JPY reached and all time high of about 168.95 Right now it is pretty close to that. Then came the BIG unwind. On about Aug 22 (or so) the trade bottomed out at about 149.50.

All the Yen crosses have been doing this for a while. Right now CHF/JPY has already exceeded last summer high. I don't do GBP/JPY, but it will unwind with the others, and will not reach it's high --- since the Pound has been suffering a bit. The USD/JPY is going to be the exception this year: it was at 128.90 and fell. Since the dollar hasn't been the same in all mkts, the USD/JPY never recovered. After Aug 22, it went even lower than 99x.xx. It would take a reversal of the USD to move that back up again.

When the carry trades reverse, they will move the whole market with them. Other trades will reverse, too. This is partly because the whole market is "topping out" and needs a deep market correction.

So LOOK OUT!!!! It's coming! But I predict that it will be shorter, and not as deep this year: Japan's ecconomy is weakening some, and will not enjoy as much of the usual summer boost they get from exports for US Christmas. Also, due to market (G7, and G8) manipulating. Also loss of interest in carry traders for a while last spring -- still not booming like it used to.

You may have noticed that after market corrections, trends on pairs move really quickly, staying in their buy or sell modes all day. Then the trends weaken their peak or low periods get shorter each day -- and less volitity after news. That's when you will know that they are about to "top out" and correct themselves (over bought/over sold). This phenoma goes to extremes with carry trades. You also see smaller trend reversals and rebounds several times before the big one! This has happened a few times, but is not nearly as pronounced as usaual (selling off over 450 pips a day, someitmes. Beware!

The Yen pairs are ALWAYS in the buy mode -- MOST OF THE TIME. But 2 times a year, the pairs will "unwind" (carry trade unwind) in a deep market correction. This occurs right after Jan 1 or so, and also at the end of June or in July.

Example: Last June 20 (or so) EUR/JPY reached an all-time high of about 168.95. Right now it is pretty close to that. Then came the BIG unwind. By about Aug 22 (or so) the trade had bottomed out at about 149.50.

All the Yen crosses have been doing this for a while. Right now CHF/JPY has already exceeded last summer's high. I don't do GBP/JPY, but it will unwind with the others. And will not reach it's high --- since the Pound has been suffering a bit. The USD/JPY is going to be the exception this year: it was at 128.90 and fell. Since the dollar hasn't been the same in all mkts, the USD/JPY never recovered. After Aug 22, it went even lower than 99x.xx. It would take a long trend reversal of the USD to move that one back up again.

When the carry trades reverse, they will move the whole market with them. Other trades will reverse, too. This is partly because the whole market is "topping out" and needs a deep market correction.

So LOOK OUT!!!! It's coming! But I predict that it will be shorter, and not as deep this year: Japan's ecconomy is weakening some, and will not enjoy as much of the usual summer boost they get from exports (Christmas orders). Also, due to market (G7, and G8) manipulating. Aand loss of interest in carry traders for a while last spring -- still not booming like it used to.

You may have noticed that right after market corrections, trends on pairs rebound really quickly, staying in their buy or sell modes all day. Then the trends weaken: Their peak or low periods get shorter each day, less pips gained, and less volitity after news. That's when you will know that they are about to "top out" and correct themselves (over bought/over sold). This phenoma goes to extremes with carry trades. You also see smaller trend reversals and rebounds several times before the big one! This has happened a few times, but is not nearly as pronounced as usaual (selling off over 450 pips a day, sometimes. Beware!