Knowledge is Power

The TIC number comes out in 5 minutes. The NAHB number comes out at 1:00 PM and Bernake is speaking at 10:00 AM

Dow Futures are down 37 now ... Oil is UP $3.54 and Gold is UP $18 US as the US Dollar Index is going down. The Nikkei was UP BUT the CAC, DX and FTSE are down. Crude Oil hits record HIGH it flashes on CNBC !!!

Where is the Dow Going Today ?

Bruce

15:00 USD http://www.forexfactory.com/images/m...mpact_high.gif TIC Net Long-Term Transactions 115.1B 63.0B 80.4B


isn't 115.1B much more than expected.. ? should be good for usd? what happens?

I have been trading this $100,000 US Dollars Demo Account since 6:35 PM on June 9, 2008. To date I have made 62 FX trades of $100,000 US

All my FX trades were WINS ! Win Rate 100% Total Gross Profit is $7040.49 and my carrying costs on open positions or rollovers is $396.47 so my Net Profit on all 62 closed trades is $6,644.02 and the Demo Cash Balance is now $106,644.02 heading towards $130,000 US Dollars by or before July 9, 2008.

I managed to sell two older positions and I now have open 10 positions of 100K of USD/JPY

My margin utilization is 10.13% and my average cost of the 10 Open Positions is 107.21

My drawdown now is $7574.07 at USD/JPY 108.00 Bid

My Net Equity with Drawdown is $99,069.95 US

I have been trading around 3 older positions of 100K at 106.24, 106.86 and 107.02 as with my High Winning Percentage and NOT using more than 20% or less of my capital I can do.

I will post the actual report later today.


Bruce

P.S. Any comments, questions or suggestions would be Welcome !!!

Correct ! It is much better but with all the money flows back and forth it has less meaning at the moment. Regardless IT IS IMPORTANT to see how a Currency Pair reacts to news.

I see EUR/JPY going UP in New Carry Trade and it does not get USD/JPY past the High and STRONG Resistance at 108.60

Empire State was BAD and it did react down on NEW Economic news. Lehman BAD earnings confirmed. Dow Future Down from UP Oil is High Gold is High

This is what determines things NOT THE CHARTS !!!

Bruce

I am now short 15 positions of 100K on USD/JPY which represents 15.58 margin utilization ! My scaled in cost is 107.51 and I am looking for the Dow to break 12,000.

The Dow is down 50 now and NAHB comes out at 1:00 PM with the number last month at 19

As soon as the market real realizes that the FED is not cutting on June 24 then there will be a selloff in the US Dollar. The ECB is going to 4.25% during July 2008 and Oil is over $137 US at the Moment !!!

INFLATION YES ! RECESSION YES ! First Choose for the FED ... SAVE the Economy so they will CUT eventually. They have NO CHOICE !!!

Bruce

in one of the videos of George Soros... he explained what he did in 92... the pound was very weak... and the situation similar .. then they raised the interest to try to save the pound... and he said... that was a signal for me that the pound is in big trouble... so now I can short the pound more... and that's how he did it.

maybe something similar could happen to the dollar now.

There definitely are some similarities. I like the way the USD/JPY is reacting to news. The TOP so far is holding at 108.60

The fundamentals today were bad. Empire State and NAHB. The EUR/JPY is quite HIGH and it has not carried USD/JPY up with it. A 100 Plus down day on the Dow might get the job done. Oil is up again as is Gold. The 2 Year US Bonds were over 3.0% and today Robert Novak put out an article that the FED would NOT RAISE. With the ECB almost 100% guaranteed to raise in July 2008, I can see BIG problems for the FED including the real START of the CREDIT CRUNCH because of the downgrade of the Bond Insurers such as Ambac and MBIA !!!

We shall see fairly soon.


Bruce

Bernanke added more things to the worries... health care now... short short short...

I just cannot believe... I find it as if Bernanke had to find something to blame the crisis... I know! the hospitals are the problem of the united states !! I shouldn't had changed the interests rates... just remove the hospitals .. many poors would die and that would solve all the united states issues...!

I saw the logo of the FINAL WORD show on bloomberg.. and my mind did read FINAL WORLD... haha

James Turk is as good as there is as a Gold Analyst !!!

Here is the Link to his piece. Comments welcome !

Link:

http://www.goldmoney.com/en/commentary-print.html

Snippet:

They are trying to change monetary history by ignoring this most basic principle of central banking. Rather than raise dollar interest rates, they are instead just jawboning.
We saw both of them in full force this past week, huffing and puffing about not ruling out market intervention and other steps to fight inflation. But what else would you expect them to say? Talk is cheap; action is dear. The bottom line is that we have been here before, but there is a significant twist this time around. It's their unadorned wheedling and cajoling.
The Financial Times reported this past Friday: "The 'strong dollar' campaign has switched into high gear. US Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson has conducted an aggressive lobbying drive behind the scenes in the Middle East and Asia. America's friends and foes have been left in no doubt that the enormous strategic might of the United States is now firmly behind the currency. From now on, they cross Washington at their peril." Was Mr. Paulson really threatening friend and foe alike with the U.S.'s "strategic might" in order to talk up the dollar? The FT wasn't the only newspaper to report as much.
The more important question though is whether the implied threat of "strategic might" is really enough to cause the dollar to change direction? No, because as noted above, higher interest rates rather than more rhetoric are needed to save the dollar from a total collapse.
As the following chart shows, the wheedling and cajoling and orchestrated media campaign is causing the dollar to bounce, but absent action by raising interest rates, this bounce will be short-lived. After the bluster, the major downtrend in the dollar will resume.


Bruce

If you have seen it perhaps you might want to take the less than 7 minutes and watch it again. If you have not seen it than please help your FX trading and watch it. More so by looking at my post before this one on the editorial on Gold and the US Dollar done by James Turk.

We are at the TOP of the P as in PERCEPTION and the Technical Charts will give ALL of US a Heads Up, if we are aware of the REVERSAL about to happen.

Here is the Link:

If you have not viewed the video posted on this thread called "FTP" please do so after reading this post. FUNDAMENTALS get you into your position ahead of most others. Then you use TECHNICALS to get the BEST entry into that currency and also know where everyone sees, Support, Resistance and Pivot Points.

Then we get to PERCEPTION as I just explained above as did Jack Crooks confirm. GUESS WHAT ? Just like in the FTP video of a little less than 7 minutes shows, when the PERCEPTION becomes commonplace, that is when it will be ready to reverse as it just might do at or shortly over the next few days since ONE, there will be surprise by the NON ACTION of the G8 and following that on Monday and Tuesday coming, there is IMPORTANT US Data on the housing market including the much watched and accepted NAHB index coming out on Monday at 1:00 PM

I will do another post on how to take advantage of this knowledge to make money using my method of trading FX which works.

Here is the Link to the FTP video.

http://broadcast.ino.com/education/t...eboard_6/?blog

PLEASE WATCH IT !!! Thank You !!!

It Is All Up To You To Learn And Improve. I am doing my part...


Bruce

They say that " History Repeats Itself "

Perhaps it does. If so and you learn from the past you will become wealthy beyond your expectations.

Here is the OLD movie just updated for the years 2008 and 2009.

New players and the same results. Correction of errors of business and policy !!!

IN BANKING, THE FUNDAMENTALS REMAIN POOR

In our opinion, the banking system in the developed world remains in a downward spiral. Financial institutions must raise money to strengthen their balance sheets and they must decrease leverage. They try to accomplish this by making as many bullish statements as possible, and to get as much positive PR from central bankers as possible. Then, they try to sell more stock and more bonds to investors.
In our opinion, investors should use every rally in U.S. and European financials as a selling opportunity. We believe that it will take at least two or three more years for the balance sheets of the financial institutions to be repaired. On top of that, we believe that government regulators want to end the use of high, 30 to 1 leverage by investment banks.

Without the big leverage, how will they make a lot of money? Could it be that U.S. and European financial stocks will experience a continuing decline like the U.S. and European technology and telecom stocks did beginning in 2000? This is the opinion of our friend Larry Jeddeloh of The Institutional Strategist (www.tisgroup.net), and I think that he is correct. We plan to stay away from U.S. and European financials until the market proves us wrong.

GOLD PRICE VOLATILITY...WE'VE SEEN IT BEFORE

A review of the 1970's gold price shows periods of big declines during the long uptrend...much like what we are seeing in this current uptrend.

The background environment was similar. Inflation was rising along with oil and gold. The dollar was generally declining and politicians were all over the media talking about how inflation would be cured in no time. When this didn't work they started in with the 'we will make gold sales from government inventories' ploy (and they did make sales). Government officials and central bankers, who view the rising price of gold as a negative report card on their policies, went to the media with witticisms like gold is a barbarous relic, and that speculators are destroying the economy and should be punished. Of course, Congress and the Executive Branch held themselves blameless, saying that they have not hurt the economy with their fiscal policies, but that it's the fault of greedy speculators...and foreigners.

During this period, gold went from about $35 to over $870, but by no means was it a straight line.

1. Gold went from $35.94 average price in 1970 to $120.17 in July of 1973...an increase of 233%.

2. Then, gold fell from $120.17 to below $95 in Nov 1973...a decline of over 20% in four months.

3. Then, in March 1975, COMEX gold peaked at $187.50 for a rise of over 90% in 17 months.

4. Then, in August 1976, COMEX gold hit a low of $101...a 46% decline in 17 months. So, during a two year and nine month period, the price of gold was only modestly higher than November 1973's low of $95. Then it began to move rapidly as inflation in the U.S. began to be a problem in 1977, 1978 and 1979.

5. In October 1978, COMEX gold peaked at $249.40 for a rise of 147% in two years and two months. By this time, inflation in the developed world was high and rising...much like inflation in the developing world is today.

6. In November 1978 COMEX gold bottomed at $191.20 for a decline of 24% in one month...Inflation continued to be a problem.

7. Then, in January 1980, COMEX gold peaked at $873...an increase of over 350% in fourteen months. After this gold price peak, inflation began to moderate. Paul Volker had taken over at the Federal Reserve and was administering some strong anti-inflationary interest rate increases which lead to a recession. He remained a strong and steady force for moderation in money supply growth and reduced the public's inflationary expectations.

In our opinion, we are at the beginning of a period of inflation in the emerging world that may be like the equivalent of early 1978 in the developed world. The developing nations are making the same mistakes such as price controls, which incentivize consumption, export restrictions, which incentivize global hoarding, tariffs and many other artificial boundaries which create market dislocations and lead to higher prices.

Government officials are beginning to blame the speculators for the problems that the government policies have fostered.
We can be sure that we will see the old stand bys: government threats of sales from their inventories and restrictions on trading commodities in many parts of the world.

None of this will work until they implement higher interest rates and other tight monetary and fiscal policies which will slow economic activity and moderate inflationary expectations. Then, we can expect an end to inflation.

Between now and the time that officials implement these policies (I don't know how long it will take them to get wise), we will see more inflation and much higher gold and other commodity prices.

The primary purchasers of gold will be the newly wealthy citizens of the emerging world, and anybody else who wants to protect themselves from inflation will also look to gold and other commodities. Governmental officials will label these investors as greedy speculators, but in reality, they are people combating the rising cost of living and the erosion of their savings...in other words, they have little choice.


http://www.guildinvestment.com/ARhom...PID=4&ARList=1

The FX Solutions Demo Account was created on June 9, 2008 at 13:04 with an initial deposit of $10,000 US Dollars. On June 10, 2008 at 09:09 an additional $90,000 US Dollars was deposited. I did my first FX trade of $100,000 US Dollars using $1000 US of capital at 18:35 on one position of USD/JPY at 106.34 closing it at 106.27 for 7 PIPS at 19:23

As of this moment I have done an additional 75 FX trades in USD/JPY short and some EUR/USD long. The additional 75 trades were ALL winning FX trades so in one week of FX trading, I have earned $10,300.93 US Dollars less carrying costs of $513.14 on rollovers.

The CASH BALANCE is now $109,787.79 US Dollars. I am now short 10 positions of USD/JPY and my margin utilization is 9.67%

The FX Solutions report was generated at 10:10 PM EST

My drawdown on the 10 open USD/JPY is now $6,331.99 at a average scale in cost of 107.21

I will post the FX Solutions Report later on to have my statements verified and you can examine ALL of my 86 Trades with 76 now Closed WITHOUT a LOSS...

USD/JPY now trades at 107.86 Bid.


Bruce

Hi Warren,
I just join your thread. I will follow it very closely from now on. I am sure I will a lot

I suggest that you start at the start of the thread and read everything. Then you can post any questions that you have.

Glad to have you on board.

Good Trading !!!


Bruce

http://www.investorsinsight.com/blog...revulsion.aspx


Bruce

http://www.drschoon.com/articles/Bildebergers.pdf

Snippet:

THE MORE PAPER MONEY PRINTED
THE LESS ITS VALUE
The ultimate seduction of credit lies in its ability to deceive the debtor into believing that
it is real money he or she has. It is not. Credit and debt are two sides of the same coin,
albeit a coin of highly dubious origin.
The two-sided coin of credit and debt was substituted for gold and silver in an
arrangement that served bankers and government, not producers and savers; and, much to
the chagrin of the Bilderbergers and their bankers, the rest of the world,

sic producers and
savers, are now beginning to catch on to this increasingly obvious truth.
The recent rapid rise in the price of oil is a reflection of the intention of oil producers to
no longer automatically trade their limited supply of oil for an unlimited and continually
devaluing supply of paper money.

The current volatility in the price of gold and silver is a reflection of the death
throes of the Bilderberger’s regime of paper money. No paper money system has
ever lasted, all have ended in failure and disaster and this present system will end
the same way—no matter what efforts are exerted on the behalf of paper money.

IT’S YOUR CHOICE
PAPER, GOLD, OR SILVER
It was the bankers of the west that invented this game of charades where credit and debt
masquerade as money. It is a charade that has lasted three hundred years. All games end,
however, and this game is ending now,

gratis of the universe whose intelligent hand
Buckminster Fuller saw everywhere, even in our mistakes.
Bucky maintained that mistakes are an integral part of learning (see Fuller’s Mistake
Mystique, see http://www.flighttogenius.com/mm_ebook.pdf ), Fuller maintained that the
universe evolves by mistakes, learning ever more as it does so—and that includes
mankind—no matter how dissociated our minds think we are from the originating
phenomena of life.
In early June, as we in the Positive Deviant Network walked through Lakeview Prison in
Dunkirk, NY, we saw a slogan prominently painted on a wall. In that prison, especially,
its truth was obvious:
LEARNING IS HAPPENING

And, so it is. It is a lesson the bankers and the Bilderbergers will soon understand.


Bruce

From WWW.SAXOBANK.COM

I was saying "No Way, Jose, The FED will Not Raise, BUT the ECB Will"

Here You Go .... Fundamentals for SURE !!!

Copy and Paste:

Market Comments
An article out in the Washington Post yesterday from a source considered close to Bernanke suggested that the Fed chairman was a bit surprised that the market was pricing in so much action from the Fed and that his worries remained firmly on the side of growth rather than inflation. Similar articles appeared in the Wall Street Journal and the Financial Times, so it is quite apparent that Bernanke is trying to send a message. This is certainly a key driver for the weaker USD over the last 24 hours. The market has been buying dollars of late after the revved up inflation rhetoric of late from Bernanke and especially some of his Fed colleagues and this latest development doesn't fit with where the market has taken interest rate expectations. The noises/rumors took the rate differentials for the USD sharply lower vs. Europe. The 2-year spread closed at close to -150 bps last Thursday, but now stands at closer to -180 bps. On the pricey oil issue, Bernanke apparently feels that this was more a threat to growth than a threat to inflation down the road. Adding to the confusion, however, the Fed's Lacker was out talking up rate hikes yesterday - though he and the other hawks like Fisher are apparently still only a vocal minority.
In technical action, EURUSD rallied sufficiently to change the default view for now to a range trading environment from the earlier expectation for a potential breakout lower scenario. The pair may be allowed to progress a few figures higher if data doesn't surprise strongly in favor of the USD this week as long as the dovish Fed expectations persist, but it will be interesting to see to what degree the US Fed/Treasury attempt to crank up the strong dollar rhetoric if EURUSD heads back toward the top of the range. For now, the interest rate differentials seem to be in the driver's seat again. Down the road, we wonder if this will be the case, however, as the ECB may be risking a hard landing by going into rate-hike mode just as the EuroZone economy is nosing into a soft patch.
The Reserve Bank of Australia minutes from their June 3 meeting were released overnight and suggest that the RBA is in no hurry to move on rates for the time being. The RBA said that current rates may be high enough to slow demand, that wage growth has remained contained, and that economic reports show that demand is moderating. AUDUSD failed to respond to this development, but AUD was sharply weaker in the crosses. AUD is likely to continue to trade in an inverse relationship with the JPY and CHF. NZD traded a bit stronger as Moody's maintained it's Aaa rating for the country's debt.
Today we have a fairly heavy load of data from the US, the most interesting day data-wise from the US this week. Considering the latest grist from the Fed rumor mill, Bernanke may be able to look through another high PPI number today if he considers growth threats so dire (as we do!). This despite the fact that the headline YoY PPI posted a 26-year high in recent months. None of the other numbers are especially important for forward indications on growth, except for the housing starts number, and how on earth that one could surprise significantly to the upside, we've no idea.... If the USD heads weaker still, we'd most like to play it through USDCHF and USDJPY, though this will likely require a weak stock market for outperformance in these pairs. Keep an eye on US financial issues after Lehman's big reported loss yesterday.
The UK sees important inflation data today as GBP trades in no-man's land against EUR and CHF. Again, if we don't get a follow up move stronger soon, it looks like GBP could head back to the weak side. A low surprise would seem to be a bigger GBP mover today.

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DX&v=s



Off To Sleep for a few hours ... US Housing Data out later this AM in the USA


Bruce

We had quite a ride from the bottom overnight at 107.59 on FX Solutions platform and 107.593 on FXCM platform. The pattern is usually repeated from 5:00 AM to 8:00 AM where US Dollar gets some strength after data from Europe but before NY open.

Now to review a few things this AM before US news comes out at 8:30 AM

It gives guidlines before and after new news like PPI and housing starts.

Dow Futures are UP 50 at the moment. Oil is DOWN $1.31 at $133.30
Europe markets are all up quite a bit at the moment. Dow Futures just went UP to 64 so there is a positive feeling at the moment just before the 8:00 AM timeframe. Goldman earnings due out any minute. The 2 Year US Bonds are now trading at 2.92% and the 10 Year US Bonds are at 4.20% for a spread of 128 basis points. When USD/JPY was lower the spread was about 166 basis points. The KEY is the FED and what they do a week from now.

I will post after I catch up on some research and email.

Stay tuned.

Bruce