Euro/US Dollar crossroads

I have an opinion. It is only an opinion, nothing more.

It is that those with a large stake riding on the direction of the Euro are looking at the following chart,
or something similar. It suggests one of two possible senarios:

Senario 1) The long term trend (UP), indicated by the blue lines will continue unchallenged
for the forseeable future until affected by yet undetermined causes.

Senario 2) The intermediate trend (Also UP), indicated by the red line, which is being challenged
at this very moment, will break - causing a challenge to the Long term trend
which again are indicated by the blue lines.

However, one outcome that is quite likely is that, regardless of the order of occurrence,
whether a new high in the 160's, followed by a decline to support, or a break of the
intermediate trend to test same, eventually, just as all markets do, there will be a
reversion to the mean and that translates to a test of those blue lines ONE OF THESE DAYS.

It is up for grabs when we'll see it. This year, next year, (next decade ??) but,
it should not surprise anyone when it occurs.

excellent analysis. The pair seems to be seeking equilibrium at this point.

Some things to take into consideration are which pair has the most upside potential.

Which of these two currencies is overvalued, and which is undervalued?

What will happen to this pair if we experience a global recession/depression?

What will happen to this pair if we experience a global war?

Where are the major forex reserves held, and what are they doing with their money? And what are their intentions if they decide to use their massive wealth as a weapon against the U.S. and the western world.