Knowledge is Power

Depending on who you trade through the time varies but for practical purposes the platform that I use opens on Sunday at 5:15 PM

As for predictions, I try not to make them. You could say they are educated assumptions based on information known. I suggest you start at the beginning of this thread as there is much information there to give you good knowledge as a new trader.

Good Trading !!!

http://www.bktraderfx.com/site/fx-we...es-to-increase

Snippet:

————–FX Market Outlook————–
The dollar had one of its best weeks in years as it gained nearly five big figures against the euro. The rise was due to a massive change in US interest rate expectations as the market started to price in the possibility of rate hikes before the year end. As we noted in our special report, “Clearly the game has changed and the Fed now feels that inflation is a bigger problem than growth for the US economy.
What has prompted such a radical turn around in monetary policy? Oil. The price of crude has skyrocketed to nearly $139/bbl creating a massive inflationary domino effect throughout the global economy. With oil a key component in everything from farming to transportation, to travel and tourism no sector in the US economy has been immune from the pain of higher prices. Headline inflation has increased to 4% from 2% the year prior. Worse, after years of stable and steady prices US inflation expectations have suddenly started to surge hitting a 13year in the latest Reuters U. of Michigan survey.”
Can the dollar rally continue? A lot will depend on the G8 outcome this weekend. With the dollar starting to already strengthen the G-8 policy makers may decide to press the move further by reaffirming their desire for a rebalancing of rates. In that case the EURUSD may drop all the way to 1.5000 in the wake of post G-8 volatility. However, if the subject of FX is ignored the meeting may turn out to be a non-event for the currency market on the Asian open Sunday night.
The yen meanwhile continued to be the whipping boy for the carry trade as BOJ once again remained stationary and signaled that it will continue to do so for the foreseeable future. By maintaining this cautious approach to monetary policy Governor Shirakawa is certainly following in the footsteps of his predecessors but he now stands in stark contrast to President Trichet and Chairman Bernanke who have been much more outspoken on the danger of escalating price pressures to their respective economies. As a result of today’s decision currency markets clearly understand that the yen will remain the predominant vehicle for carry trades for the foreseeable future, risk appetite permitting.


Bruce

These are rules of trading done by my friend Fred, a commodity trader. The rules were published in a futures trading magazine called "Trends In Futures"

These rules should be followed as they stand the test of time !!!

Fred's Rules !!!

Fred’s Rules

FINALLY...
I would like to share with you My personal parameters for
successful commodity trading, provided by FS, a
TIF subscriber. I think these are great and they mirror many of
my personal trading rules. Serious traders, consider this a
keeper. Here it is in Freds words:
With regard to my rules, most of them have been around
a lot longer than me and although well-known on the logic
level, are sometimes difficult to implement/execute.
Personally, I think the most important rule is the first one
since all the others are essentially predicated on it. Keep up
the good work with TIF!
1. NEVER trade with funds you cannot afford to lose
the stress will negatively impact your judgment.
2. NEVER put on a trade without a SIMULTANEOUS
stop loss. Period. This is seminal.
3. NEVER change a stop loss except to move it up/down
as a position moves in your favor. Otherwise just let the stop
loss take you out of the position within predetermined
parameters.
4.When in doubt for whatever reason (instinct?)
GET OUT.
5. Avoid overtrading.
6. When trading profitably, get AGGRESSIVE. (We all
have streaks!)
7. Never use more than 50% of your equity at one time
and, depending on the size of your account, make certain
that no SINGLE trade uses more than X% of your equity. (I
use 4%.)
8. Never add to a losing position. PERIOD.
9. Forget your EGO because the market is ALWAYS
right PERIOD.
10. Have patience in winning trades and give them time
to unfold.
11. Determine in advance what your TIME parameters
are for a trade, as this will impact both strategy as well as
predetermined RISK parameters.
12. Money management is at least as important as trade
selection and can be MORE important.
13. Trade multiple markets but not more than SEVEN
at a time.


P.S. These are my friends rules which I had been following before I met him a few years ago. These were rules that were published in TIF magazine. I endorse these RULES 100%

http://news.goldseek.com/Zealllc/1213373509.php

Snippet:


We are at the same stage in our current LVW now as we were early in the 1973-to-1974 bear in the last LVW. That bear started at 19x earnings while our latest SPX top was at 21x earnings. That bear started just above the top of the SPX’s secular trading range, just like our current technical weakness. And back then, just like now, spiraling oil prices and inflationary expectations were really weighing on Americans and hence the US economy and stock markets.


The bottom line is recent technical action in the US stock markets is looking increasingly like we are already in a new cyclical bear. Sellers are overpowering buyers with increasing ease and stock prices are falling on balance. If such a bear follows historical precedent, it is not unreasonable at all to expect the major US stock indexes to fall to half the levels of their early-October highs before this bear fully runs its course!

Thanks for posting Fred rules.

It is time to start to get ready for trading which on my FXCM platform starts at 5:15 PM EST when New Zealand opens...

Here is a summary of events over the weekend and one view of what the open of trading might bring !!!


04:21 G8 Meeting: Forex Not Discussed/No Firm Action On Oil Rise

Sydney, June 15: These are some of the highlights from the G8 Meeting in Osaka.

* The G8 did not formerly discuss currencies or intervention at their meeting, according to Japanese Finance Minister Nukaga.

* French Finance Minister Lagarde said dollar weakness and commodity price
inflation were linked, but US Treasury Secretary Paulson said on Saturday that he disagreed and repeated that the US was committed to a strong US dollar.

Lagarde responded by saying that she was "fairly happy" to hear US Treasury Secretary repeat his commitment to a strong US dollar.

* Italian Economy Minister Tremonte pushed for regulations to limit speculation in the oil market, but the UK and US representatives resisted with the end result being just rhetoric.

* The G8 Communique said "Elevated commodity prices, especially oil and food, pose a serious challenge to growth worldwide, have serious implications for the most vulnerable and may increase global inflationary pressure."

* The IMF warned of prolonged global economic weakness and the Nikkei reported that EU Commissioner Alumnia warned of 1970's style stagflation, in an interview.

Comment The markets on Monday morning will be surprised that foreign exchange issues were not formally discussed at the G8 meeting and that Paulson was happy to simply repeat the US "strong dollar mantra" without adding anything of substance to the oft repeated comment.

The G8 couldn't muster a consensus on how to deal with the rising oil price and merely pointed out what economists and market analysts already knew, which was that rising oil and food prices threatened economic growth and could lead to stagflation.

The markets will not be impressed by the fact that G8 did not discuss FX
formerly and Paulson did not say more about the US dollar.

One of the reasons for the US dollar index staging its biggest one week rally in close to three years was expectations that the US authorities were finally ready to back rhetoric with action in regards to stabilizing the US dollar.

The G8 this weekend will undermine that supporting factor and the EUR/USD should be the biggest beneficiary. The lack of action on oil prices should see oil prices move higher on Monday and further undermine US dollar sentiment.
[email protected]

http://www.moneyandmarkets.com/Issue...erEntryId=1886

The author of this article has been for good reason very negative on the US Dollar. He is expert in both his fundamental and technical analysis.

However I was quite surprised this morning to see when I read it again that he actually now thinks perhaps the US Dollar will become stronger. By reading the article you will see why he thinks this way as a new possibility now. So we see how the FED successfuly changed PERCEPTION short term. However now the words must be matched by actions and according to the post above, it appears no action will be taken. What happens on June 24, 2008 at 2:15 PM EST if the FED keeps interest rates at 2.0% ? The market with the USA 2 Year Treasuries at 2.92% is telling the FED their opinion about inflation. If the FED holds the markets will see the hollowness of the words. There will be reactions for sure. The ECB has signalled an increase to 4.25% in July and so there we have it.

Here is the Link:

http://www.moneyandmarkets.com/Issue...erEntryId=1886

Snippet:


Then again, I also noticed something not so encouraging: A bearish flag pattern that would imply an eventual breakdown to at least test its all-time lows is still in play. Take a look at this chart and you'll see what I mean ...

http://images.moneyandmarkets.com/977/all-time-lows.gif

As I see it, one of two things could come from this:
Scenario #1: The dollar breaks convincingly out of the current period of consolidation, igniting a fresh wave of dollar-positive sentiment that invigorates the bulls and leaves the bears worrying that a legitimate bottom is in.
Or ...
Scenario #2: The dollar belly-flops, igniting a fresh wave of dollar-negative sentiment that reinvigorates the bears and leaves bulls fearing that a legitimate bottom is not in.
Based on how the week finished up, I think scenario #1 is the more likely one right now.
Best wishes,
Jack


Bruce

The above two posts give you a clear picture of how I look to understand and review the present state of the FX currency markets. I constantly do this to ensure that no fundamental changes are taking place in the marketplace.

If you have not viewed the video posted on this thread called "FTP" please do so after reading this post. FUNDAMENTALS get you into your position ahead of most others. Then you use TECHNICALS to get the BEST entry into that currency and also know where everyone sees, Support, Resistance and Pivot Points.

Then we get to PERCEPTION as I just explained above as did Jack Crooks confirm. GUESS WHAT ? Just like in the FTP video of a little less than 7 minutes shows, when the PERCEPTION becomes commonplace, that is when it will be ready to reverse as it just might do at or shortly over the next few days since ONE, there will be surprise by the NON ACTION of the G8 and following that on Monday and Tuesday coming, there is IMPORTANT US Data on the housing market including the much watched and accepted NAHB index coming out on Monday at 1:00 PM

I will do another post on how to take advantage of this knowledge to make money using my method of trading FX which works.

Here is the Link to the FTP video.

http://broadcast.ino.com/education/t...eboard_6/?blog

PLEASE WATCH IT !!! Thank You !!!


Bruce

On June 9, 2008, I opened a $10,000 US Dollars Demo account using the FX Solutions Platform. I asked for it to be increased to $100,000 US Dollars as it is easier to explain my trading strategy with either $50,000 US Dollars or $100,000 US Dollars.

I started demo trading September 2003 and at Saxo I used a $100,000 US Dollars demo account and at Man Financial, I used a $50,000 US Dollars demo. I started trading Real FX Funds March 9, 2006 as that is when I was 100% confident I would become a winning FX trader as I am now.

I have been trading the FX Solutions platform since June 9, 2008 and as yet I have not lost a FX trade even though the USD/JPY went against my view of the longer term trend of say 30 to 60 days. I will be posting here daily the report generated by the FX platform of ALL my trades since the start.

At present time I am long 5 positions of 100K in EUR/USD and also short positions in USD/JPY. 5 of my positions, I entered late on Friday and the other 5, I have held for a few days.

EUR/USD moving up over 154.00 should help move USD/JPY below 108.00

Since I have 15 open positions in both currencies I am using $15,000 US of the $100,000 US Dollars in the demo account. No Chance for a Margin Call since I NEVER trade more than 25% of my trading capital.

You could say I have two trading plans now. One, EUR/USD and the other USD/JPY however there are obvious different factors that move each currency.

By getting in at a very good price on EUR/USD around 1.5350 I have good entry into that pair.

Let us suppose that the G8 news was BAD for EUR/USD by having a Stop at 153.25 on my 5 open positions, my maximum LOSS known in advance would be 25 PIPS times 5 positions of 100K or a loss of $1250 US Dollars which represents 1.25% of my $100,000 US Dollars capital base. Now what will happen if the EUR/USD rallies to 154.50 on Sunday or Monday ?

I have the potential to make 100 PIPS or $5000 US Dollars VS a Loss of $1250 US Dollars !

I will stop at this point to allow for any comments and questions !


Bruce


P.S. Regardless of results GOOD or BAD you will see them here everyday as I post them at least once a day. My target is to earn about 1% a day on the original capital of $100,000 US Dollars. So by July 9, 2008 after 30 calendar days, I hope and expect to have the demo balance at $130,000 US Dollars !

If any of you want to learn by trading along with me then please open a demo account and you can learn and practise with me without risking real funds.

My goal would be for everyone with a demo account opened to get them first to a level of earning 10% each month that they trade demo funds.

If you are interesting please post here and I will let you know where to go to open the demo account. I will also ask the firm who arranged my demo account if they would accomodate me by also setting the demo funds at $100,000 US Dollars instead of their standard $10,000 US Dollars.

There are only two FX trading platforms that I use at present time. My FXCM platform where I trade real funds and I am a IB or introducing broker and the FX Solutions platform. Based solely on my personal trading experience these for me and my style of FX trading are the only two platforms I use because of all the excellent features, both Fundamental, Technical and Trading that they offer to me.

Have a Great Trading Week !!!


Bruce

http://www.actionforex.com/action-in...2008061549670/

The Week Ahead
Central banks rate speculations will remain the dominant driving force in the forex markets. In particular, markets. In particular, housing and growth data from US will be closely watched to solidify the expectation that Fed is on the road to rate hikes. NABH housing markets will be released, so is new residential constrcution data. Empire State manufacuting, Philly Fed survey will also be closely watched together with industrial productions. PPI inflation will also be paid attention too.
Eurozone HICP final, Germany ZEW will be featured.
From UK, main focus will be on Tuesday's CPI release. Note that the headline CPI is expected to accelerate to 3.2% yoy in May which will trigger an open letter from BoE King to Chancellor of the Exchequer. BoE meeting minutes will be another focus. These two events will provide the clues on whether BoE will be on hold to guard against inflation. Retail sales will be another focus.
SNB will have their quarterly rate setting meeting this week and is expected to keep rates unchanged at 2.75%.
Canadian CPI will be released this week too and would probably provide the support to BoC's decision to keep rates unchanged last week. Retail sales will also be featured.
RBA meeting minutes will be watched for the hints on whether RBA is on the road to further tightening.
Suggested Readings:

1. Economic Calendar Summary 6/16 - 6/20
2. The Week Ahead Canada and U.S.: Canadian CPI, Retail Sales & U.S. Empire Mfg
3. The Week Ahead Japan & Australia: BOJ, RBA Board Meeting Minutes
4. The Week Ahead Europe and UK: German and EU ZEW, UK CPI
5. Economic Outlook: Long-term Inflation Expectations in Focus
6. The Week ahead in FX (16-20 June 2008)
7. Week Ahead In US Financial Markets (June 16-20 2008)
8. Economics Weekly: Will the BoE Governor Have to Write an Open Letter?
9. Will Euro-zone CPI Data Allow EUR/USD To Recover on Monday?
10. GBPAUD: Evidence Supports Formation of a Major Low
11. Eur/$, Take Profits and Shift Strategy ?
12. $/Cad, a Sign to Reshort?

USD/JPY Weekly Outlook

USD/JPY surged sharply higher to 108.38 last week. From a short term angle, initial bias remains on the upside this week as long as 107.64 minor support holds. The current rise from 102.73, which is part of the whole medium term rebound from 95.77, is expected to extend further towards key medium term resistance at 108.59. On the downside, below 107.64 will indicate an intraday top is in place and bring pull back towards 4 hours 55 EMA (now at 106.56). Also, focus will then be turned back to 104.43 support.
In the bigger picture, USD/JPY has made a medium term bottom after down trend from 124.13 has just met 76.4% retracement of 79.75 to 147.68 at 95.78. Rebound from 95.77 is still in progress. Sustained trading above the mentioned medium trend line resistance argues that whole decline down trend from 124.13 has already completed. Focus is now on 108.59 resistance. Break of 108.59 will confirm that this case and stronger medium term rebound should then be seen to retest 114.77 resistance first. However, failure below there, followed by break of 102.73 support will indicate that rise from 95.77 has completed and will turn short term outlook bearish again
In the longer term picture, USD/JPY has broken out of multi-year triangle consolidation pattern that started in 1998 at 147.68. While the current rebound from 95.77 might be strong, there is still no clear evidence to support changing the long term bearish outlook yet. Attention will be paid to the structure of the rise from 95.77 to determine whether it's just a correction to fall from 124.13 or a start of another medium term rally.

I am not a Father at 64 however to All Fathers on Forex Factory ... "HAPPY FATHERS DAY"


Bruce

June 14, 2008


Richard Suttmeier?s Fearless Market Prediction

June 16, 2008, Richard Suttmeier’s Fearless Market Prediction

Last week the “Wild Ride” was the rise in US Treasury yields. The catalyst was the U-turn in monetary policy as discussed by Fed Chief Ben Bernanke in a speech last Monday evening where he declared inflation as public enemy number one. From the low of two week’s ago the yield on the 2-Year US Treasury rose 75 basis points ending last week at 3.033. The yield on the 30-Year bond ended the week within 20 basis points of my annual support at 4.975. As a result homeowners got squeezed even more as refinancings slowed and delinquencies rose. The 30-Year fixed rate mortgage rate rose to 6.29% from 6.08% last week. The yield on the 30-Year bond is 33.7 basis points higher year to date despite a federal funds rate that’s 225 basis points lower. What a show of non-confidence in the Federal Reserve!

The Term Securities Lending Facility is a 28-day lending facility that offers Treasury general collateral to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s primary dealers in exchange for other program-eligible collateral. It is intended to promote liquidity in the financing markets for Treasury and other collateral and thus foster the functioning of financial markets more generally. The auction last Thursday gave primary dealers $25 billion at an interest rate of 0.1%. The Fed continues to bail out Wall Street, while homeowners burn on Main Street. How about creating a “Mortgage Credit Facility for Community and Regional Banks” to give free money to struggling homeowners?

How much of this cheap money is finding its way in commodities speculation, as food and energy prices continue to rise. Gold declined as the dollar rebounded, but crude oil prices remain elevated. In fact import prices rose 17.5% year over year last month. In a Richard Suttmeier’s “Four In Four” last week I described what the FOMC should do on June 25. Check the archives under the Media tab on www.RightSide.com. If you can’t find this video clip send me an e-mail to [email protected].

This week’s data should continue the weakening trend

· Monday – The NAHB Housing Market Index should continue its string of extremely weak readings.

· Tuesday – Housing Starts for May should fall below an annual rate of a million units after a blip in April. PPI in May should be up 1.0%, but we don’t eat or drive, so the “more important” core rate will be a benign rise of just 0.2%. Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization should be flat.

· Thursday – Initial Jobless Claims should continue to trend above 350,000, which warns of Recession, which we may skirt until the second half of the year. The Philly Fed Index should be below zero in June.

My fearless prediction for the week – Last week I said that the Beige Book for the June 24 / 25 FOMC meeting would show that the second half economic recovery will be less likely. This is open for debate, but here are the bullet points.

1. Economic activity remained generally weak in late April and May. Consumer spending slowed since the last report as incomes were pinched by rising energy and food prices. Higher energy prices also appeared to damp domestic tourism. Manufacturing activity was generally soft in recent weeks, with weak demand for housing-related and some other products but with increasing demand for exports.
2. Residential real estate markets remained weak across most Districts.

For the daily version of “Suttmeier on the US Capital Markets” use this link. https://www.rightsideadvisors.com/

Bruce

I have run a report of my Demo Account and am trying to post it here by uploading the PDF file I just made of the trades.

Now you can see exactly where I am. My first 36 closed trades with the first one closed at 18:35 on June 9, 2008 and the last one closed at 10:47 AM on Friday, June 13 were all winning trades. The total profit is $3343.81 less the overnight carrying costs of $396.47 which gives a Net Locked In Profit to date of $2947.34 !!! It also shows the 5 Open EUR/USD FX trades with the price at EUR/USD 154.14 giving a unrealized profit of $2740.00

I also have 10 open short USD/JPY with the last five positions I bought in the money and the other 5 positions not.

Any comments or questions are welcome !!!


Bruce

At 15:51 PM and 15:52 PM, I closed 2 positions of EUR/USD at 154.14 for profit of $980 US and I closed 2 short USD/JPY positions for profit of $426 US

I now hold 3 long EUR/USD and 13 short USD/JPY and my locked in Net Profits is now $4353.46 US and my Cash Balance is $104,353.46 with my used margin at 17.82% and a drawdown of $5456.84 or about 5% at the present time.

Please post any comments are questions that you may have. I am giving you 100% transparency.


Bruce

P.S. I have also placed some Stops to LOCK in my EUR/USD profits about 14 PIPS below where it is. Never go from a good winning position to a losing position. Take good profits when you can. You can go back in at any time if the trend is continuing in your direction. This is very important to do.

hi

I see some floating shorts in UJ.. in negative.. short from 106.24 to 108.18..... all of them with a target of 107.91....

are you adding positions to a losing position? this is risky because you can run out of leverage if price doesn't come back.. and result in a margin call.

I just got stopped out of the rest of my EUR/USD longs and I now hold 12 short positions of 100K on USD/JPY at an average scaled in cost of 107.35

My total realized profit is now $6,103.95 less carrying costs of $396.47 for a net cash balance of $105,707.48 US Dollars. My margin Utilization is now 12.41% and I have made 44 winning FX trades in a row since I opened the demo account with a winning percentage of 100% of all my closed trades.

My goal is to earn $30,000 Net US Dollars by July 9, 2008 or 30% Net Profit for the month of FX trading. Open your own Demo account and I will try to get you to 10% Net Profit a month even if you only trade a lesser amount such as $10,000 US Dollars in real funds BUT learn how to do it first using a Demo account.


Bruce

P.S. Isn't This FUN ?

Are you willing to realize it in live account if i give you funds?

SKYPE me to discuss more.

regards.

Try hard to understand this point. Right now I have only 12 open shorts of USD/JPY. I am only using $12,000 US Dollars of my capital. I have locked in net profits of $5,707.50 US as the cash balance is now $105,707.50 US with a drawdown on my 12 open positions in USD/JPY now at $8438.19 US at USD/JPY trading at 108.11

I normally would put Stops after MAXIMUM 100 PIPS but in this instance I am NOT since I have 100% confidence that USD/JPY will not rise above 108.60 at the present time.

The KEY to see is that my winning percentage of ALL FX trades is over 80% and at the moment in the 44 FX trades it is 100%

The KEY is to never USE more than 25% of your FX trading funds so your Drawdown is reasonable.

Have I explained it properly to you ? It is ESSENTIAL you understand that NEVER using more than 25% of your capital and having an ABSOLUTE STOP LOSS of 100 PIPS on a worse case scenario and having a plus 80% winning percentage of all your trades gives me a GREAT EDGE among other EDGES that I have in order to generate PLUS 20% profit each month of my FX trading.


Bruce

I understand perfectly... however.. 25% of your capital is quite a lot to risk. at least for non experienced traders.

First of all I would rather teach you to feed yourself so you do not need me to do it for you. I would consider it unethical to do so since I openily declared the only cost to any members of Forex Factory would be the cost of their time invested in learning from me.

I am a official IB (Introducing Broker) with FXCM however I am not licensed with any regulatory body in Canada or the USA at the moment since there is no requirement to do so. I trade for a number of private sophisticated investors at the moment. The laws of Quebec consider a sophisticated investor to be one with net worth over One Million Dollars.

I hope you understand my position but learn here and do it yourself or maybe call me when you have One Million Dollars (Kidding) but maybe I can help you make One Million Dollars by teaching you how.

Sincerely yours

Bruce

P.S. Let us FIRST see if I can make it to $130,000 US Dollars. Follow along on this thread.

Thank You for your continued intelligent questions and points. Notice that right now I am only using 12.28 % of the Demo Capital.

I have not followed my own rule 100% because of my great confidence in myself and also for a personal reason that I am still working on. However the three positions of 106.24 and the other position of 106.86 and 107.02 are all down over 100 PIPS. Since I only used 3% of my capital what I do is trade around them until they come back. It might not be the easiest thing to do but I do it from time to time. I am still refining my trading strategy and eventually when I get into trading over One Million Dollars of FX funds I will stick to my own Rules 100%

What gives me the freedom to take this approach is my HIGH Winning Percentage of ALL FX trades. Thank you for your comments and feel free to agree or disagree at any time.

Best regards

Bruce

P.S. My Breakeven on all 12 positions is 107.35 and I would hope to see USD/JPY trading at 106.00 by Friday, June 20, 2008. There is Important Housing Data on Monday and Tuesday PLUS reaction to the G8 that seems to have been a waste of time BUT STILL be careful as they still might have a HIDDEN AGENDA !!!