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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #93,601
  • Jun 13, 2008 6:46pm Jun 13, 2008 6:46pm
Quoting forex888
Dow Jones Indu will never fall below 12000.
never say never ... lol
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #93,602
  • Jun 13, 2008 6:46pm Jun 13, 2008 6:46pm
Quoting ovaforty
I take no offense. It has not retraced up enough yet to be considered a change of the last downtrend. Notice I said this candle is not yet finished. I said it may or not be yet. What i am saying is that the downmove may or may not be over yet.
we will know soon enough. the future prospects for the gbp are looking a bit shaky. I always respect what you post, and welcome your opinions.
economy in ingland deterioreiting, the same in japan interest rates going down on GBP, japan no change but willing to due to inflation so money flying to gold, oil and other comoditis, the pair should fall dosen't it, please correct if i'm wrong, thanks in advance, happy fathers day, good luck with your family this weekend, enjoy we deserve it.
The Chonchy
  • #93,603
  • Jun 13, 2008 6:50pm Jun 13, 2008 6:50pm
Quoting Petefaders
A valid point. Don't try to relive the glory days of G/J sells. The next strong resistance insn't untill 213.50 on larger time frames, THAT'S where I'll sell as many lots as I can and retire
great point I second that, about retiring I don't know, to young to retire, a joke
The Chonchy
  • #93,604
  • Jun 13, 2008 6:55pm Jun 13, 2008 6:55pm
I see bullishness for geppy to 212/213.50 area, but after that, I wont know until it gets there.
  • #93,605
  • Jun 13, 2008 6:57pm Jun 13, 2008 6:57pm
if the current monthly candle finishes as bullish, then we will have a 3 crows pattern.
  • #93,606
  • Jun 13, 2008 7:07pm Jun 13, 2008 7:07pm
Quoting chonchy
great point I second that, about retiring I don't know, to young to retire, a joke
Yeah, too young to retire..plus forex is fun. (when you win that is)
  • #93,607
  • Jun 13, 2008 7:15pm Jun 13, 2008 7:15pm
I had posted earlier about a possible triple bottom on cable. I did not zoom out far enough. I see a quadruple bottom if she reaches that red horizontal trendline.


Does anyone know what that would mean?
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  • #93,608
  • Jun 13, 2008 7:17pm Jun 13, 2008 7:17pm
Quoting ovaforty
I see bullishness for geppy to 212/213.50 area, but after that, I wont know until it gets there.
Agreed, bullish untill 213.50..but man, it will be a big sell when it gets there.
  • #93,609
  • Jun 13, 2008 7:19pm Jun 13, 2008 7:19pm
cablle really pushing the applecart
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"Millionaires don't use astrology, billionaires do"
  • #93,610
  • Jun 13, 2008 7:21pm Jun 13, 2008 7:21pm
Quoting OrionsWay
cablle really pushing the applecart
sure looks like it to me.

I pm'ed you.
  • #93,611
  • Jun 13, 2008 7:21pm Jun 13, 2008 7:21pm
Quoting ovaforty
I had posted earlier about a possible triple bottom on cable. I did not zoom out far enough. I see a quadruple bottom if she reaches that red horizontal trendline.


Does anyone know what that would mean?
It means they're waiting till next week for the MEGA-BUY .
  • #93,612
  • Jun 13, 2008 7:24pm Jun 13, 2008 7:24pm
Quoting ovaforty
sure looks like it to me.

I pm'ed you.

Gotta jet for now will reply tomorrow
"Millionaires don't use astrology, billionaires do"
  • #93,613
  • Jun 13, 2008 7:30pm Jun 13, 2008 7:30pm
usd/jpy weekly ended with a large bull candle. Moms finished quite bullish. But price is approaching a previous swing low (may 2005) support zone, where it stalled from november to january. I have placed a sell order there to try and catch a bounce down. It should take multiple attempts to break this level to the upside.
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  • #93,614
  • Jun 13, 2008 7:31pm Jun 13, 2008 7:31pm
Quoting Petefaders
It means they're waiting till next week for the MEGA-BUY .
do you think so? I kinda think that support level will get broken this time around. But i do have small tester buy position sitting there to catch a bounce.
  • #93,615
  • Jun 13, 2008 7:43pm Jun 13, 2008 7:43pm
daily chart for usd/jpy is showing a possible double top forming. This is the reason I have placed a sell order there. risk of reversal is good. Reasonably tight stop loss gives me good risk to reward on this position. 1st downside target is the daily 5 sma high at 107.60 area, and then possibly the red 200 sma at 106.86 area.
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  • #93,616
  • Jun 13, 2008 7:43pm Jun 13, 2008 7:43pm
Quoting ovaforty
do you think so? I kinda think that support level will get broken this time around. But i do have small tester buy position sitting there to catch a bounce.
What is the reason you think support will be broken? I think it's done playing around and will move back up to 2.1150 by summers end. starting next week...call me crazy.
  • #93,617
  • Edited 8:10pm Jun 13, 2008 7:51pm | Edited 8:10pm
Quoting Petefaders
What is the reason you think support will be broken? I think it's done playing around and will move back up to 2.1150 by summers end. starting next week...call me crazy.
My reason is because it is the 4th attempt to breach this level. Historically, a currency pair support usually gives way. Fundamentally, The economy in britain is not bullish for now. BOE is in a tough place. Write offs on financials, and the housing market, etc. If the u.s. tanks, britain may well follow. I will know more next week when the new candles appear.

This massive head and shoulder formation will be very bearish if the right shoulder gets completed.

or inverted cup and handle formation
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  • #93,618
  • Jun 13, 2008 8:15pm Jun 13, 2008 8:15pm
Quoting ovaforty
My reason is because it is the 4th attempt to breach this level. Historically, a currency pair support usually gives way. Fundamentally, The economy in britain is not bullish for now. BOE is in a tough place. Write offs on financials, and the housing market, etc. If the u.s. tanks, britain may well follow. I will know more next week when the new candles appear.

This massive head and shoulder formation will be very bearish if the right shoulder gets completed.

or inverted cup and handle formation
I was seeing 5 bottoms, counting the second one as 2...If I am right, then the 4th try was rejected. hmmm time will tell.
  • #93,619
  • Jun 13, 2008 8:20pm Jun 13, 2008 8:20pm
Quoting Petefaders
I was seeing 5 bottoms, counting the second one as 2...If I am right, then the 4th try was rejected. hmmm time will tell.
We'll see on Monday... hmmmm

KG
  • #93,620
  • Jun 13, 2008 8:21pm Jun 13, 2008 8:21pm
Quoting ovaforty
I take no offense. It has not retraced up enough yet to be considered a change of the last downtrend. Notice I said this candle is not yet finished. I said it may or not be yet. What i am saying is that the downmove may or may not be over yet.
we will know soon enough. the future prospects for the gbp are looking a bit shaky. I always respect what you post, and welcome your opinions.
Good, I'm not posting in this thread to sounding like a wanna-be hot-shot lol.

What TF do you trade ? If you trade yearly/monthly TF I understand your point of view. If not, I don't.

What do you consider as retrace ? Bears dumping their position now ? From 250 area? When will you accept and most important of all; benefit from a possible uptrend? When 250 is taken out ? Don't get too caught up in the past. A lot have changed since the down-trend started in 2007. Did you notice that this pair have been bullish from start of 2000 till 2007 ? Thats 7 years. This down-trend haven't lasted a year ! I hope you understand what I'm trying to say, because this is my last try

An day-trader couldn't care less what the monthly trend is. If I'm wrong, please tell me how I can benefit from the monthly downtrend trading from 1h till daily-chart.

We have to ask ourself why do we bother ourself by catching/measuring trend? Because its the path of money. Big money. The longer the trend last, clearer the trend becomes to everyone else. When it's too clear, it ends. And every newcomers try to enter. And they got smacked. Hard. And they obtain fear to enter any clear trend in the future or fail to see when trend ends. "Mr. Market", as Benjamin Graham called it, isn't known to run charitys.

Like with the e/u right now. Almost everyone is bearish on this pair. Why am I not ? Because of two things; everyone is bearish and daily support is still holding. My profit is someone else's loss. My loss is someone else's profit. Do I exclude the scenario where short positions are in favor ? Hell no. I know I can be dead wrong, and I'm willing to change my dance-shoes quick as hell if so, too.

Quoting ovaforty
Let me try to clarify what I said about the monthly chart. Look at the monthly chart and notice that it has retraced less than the 38 fib. At this point there may be more downside again.
I don't understand what you're saying here. If it's not a typo, then we should expect more upside since the 38.6 fibo hasn't been hit, as price is caught between two fibo levels in a upmove, agree? Ok.

We all know that fibo can have some effect on price. There is no such thing as 100% in any given market. Remember that fibo levels, included every other technical analyze, is all about possibilities ! You can't say with 100% success-rate that every "retrace"/move can be measured by fibs or anything else. So it's all about finding out what scenarios gives you best probabilities.
Measure twice, cut once
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