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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #93,341
  • Jun 13, 2008 8:06am Jun 13, 2008 8:06am
Quoting gene22
Yes, that's exactly what I was gettin at, now one last question, out of 100 trades what is your average hit ratio?
Trust me there is a point to this... explain after your answer
Gene 22 gets it. I pay attention to his posts.
  • #93,342
  • Jun 13, 2008 8:09am Jun 13, 2008 8:09am
Trend
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Click to Enlarge Name: Picture 39.png Size: 18 KB
  • #93,343
  • Jun 13, 2008 8:09am Jun 13, 2008 8:09am
closed my last euro trade for 100 pips. (looks like it's reversing)
also closed my cable trades for 20 pips each. (probably a mistake, but i'm hating that 1h candle)

i am NOT liking price action now. this might just be a stupid spike. who knows. better safe than sorry, and after all this is friday.

waiting on m30 gann to flip to close my last UJ trade. i wont close it otherwise just yet.

waiting on GJ to close below DP to go short. again, that might not happen, but i'm ready. i might wait a bit for price to consolidate after the news.

good luck all!

so far, m30 system:
60 pips for UJ
215 for EU
80 pips for GU

355 total so far.

i'm sure those who asked me lots of questions about my m30 system have catched some hints on how it's done. trade at your own risk!
  • #93,344
  • Jun 13, 2008 8:13am Jun 13, 2008 8:13am
Quoting karmostaji
LOL It's all that baldy Fed's fault, he needs to shut his mouth and sit in a corner
He He He He...........

Now i can't get that image out of my head!

GP
"You Can Make Money Or Excuses But You Can't Make Both!"
  • #93,345
  • Jun 13, 2008 8:15am Jun 13, 2008 8:15am
Euro Zone cpi is scheduled for Monday, it is prudent to take some risk off the table ahead of this event, well done
  • #93,346
  • Jun 13, 2008 8:15am Jun 13, 2008 8:15am
Quoting gene22
Yes, that's exactly what I was gettin at, now one last question, out of 100 trades what is your average hit ratio?
Trust me there is a point to this... explain after your answer
sighs...


May results:

each trades consists of 3 partial trades each with 1%. so the numbers below reflect each 1% x 3 as 1 trade.

GJ: 43 trades total, 6:4 win ratio, 176 pips avg per win, 82 pips avg per loss.

GU: 30 trades total, 8:2 win ratio, 110 pips avg per win, 98 pips avg per loss.

UJ: 33 trades total, 7:3 win ratio, 127 pips avg per win, 49 pips avg per loss.

EU: 38 trades total, 6:4 win ratio, 142 pips avg per win, 68 pips avg per loss.

i guess these details are good enough?
  • #93,347
  • Jun 13, 2008 8:15am Jun 13, 2008 8:15am
i would say short UJ is a pretty sure thing..
  • #93,348
  • Jun 13, 2008 8:18am Jun 13, 2008 8:18am
Quoting lilmoe
sighs...


May results:

each trades consists of 3 partial trades each with 1%. so the numbers below reflect each 1% x 3 as 1 trade.

GJ: 43 trades total, 6:4 win ratio, 176 pips avg per win, 82 pips avg per loss.

GU: 30 trades total, 8:2 win ratio, 110 pips avg per win, 98 pips avg per loss.

UJ: 33 trades total, 7:3 win ratio, 127 pips avg per win, 49 pips avg per loss.

EU: 38 trades total, 6:4 win ratio, 142 pips avg per win, 68 pips avg per loss.

i guess these details are good enough?
just edited.
  • #93,349
  • Jun 13, 2008 8:20am Jun 13, 2008 8:20am
Quoting lilmoe
sighs...


May results:

each trades consists of 3 partial trades each with 1%. so the numbers below reflect each 1% x 3 as 1 trade.

GJ: 43 trades total, 6:4 win ratio, 176 pips avg per win, 82 pips avg per loss.

GU: 30 trades total, 8:2 win ratio, 110 pips avg per win, 98 pips avg per loss.

UJ: 33 trades total, 7:3 win ratio, 127 pips avg per win, 49 pips avg per loss.

EU: 38 trades total, 6:4 win ratio, 142 pips avg per win, 68 pips avg per loss.

i guess these details are good enough?
this reflects ONLY what i make on my m30 strategy. my longer term trades, and catch the top/bottom trades are not included.
  • #93,350
  • Jun 13, 2008 8:21am Jun 13, 2008 8:21am
Quoting gene22
Just an observation of the current market dynamics: Dollar is being pushed up by a strong inflation rhetoric, it still has anywhere between 100 to 150 pips up to go before encountering a strong resistance. (there is a channel line just 20 ticks above current price but i suspect it will be broken) Market does not mant to be short dollars as the stance of the central banks had shifted to combat inflation. On the other hand The Fed would be hard pressed to raise the rates anytime soon with the US markets strugling on the brink(as some may think) or a slowly developing recession that would most likely turn into a stagflation. Since it is quite obvious that the British economy is deteriorating as well we can make a conclusion that any prospects for the pound recovery in the near future are grim. Since it is also clear that the strong euro is beginning hurt the EC economy and a clear message from the central banks that lower euro would be desirable, we can make a conclusion that the carry paires could really rally only on the rising usd/yen pair. However, since we are in a very uncertain times it would be prudent to assume that risk aversion will materialize in the markets rather sooner than later (VIX is ticking up, world financial markets are selling off). So here is my conclusion at the moment, since markets do not want to be left short dollars, and risk to instability in the financial markets is growing every day, it would be safe to assume that yen will be bought in a hurry once risk aversion returns in full swing, contrary to what was happening last time risk materialised, when the market was selling dollars, now it will be bying dollars and buying the yen and SF since it is customary for the markets to flow to yen and swiss if the turbulence in the markets increase. So here is my case, the risk to the downside in the carry is increaing every day, once the risk aversion kicks in it could be an extremely fast move down. I would suspect that it should be faster than anything we had witnessed in the recent past. Let's see how this plays out...
I believe this is going to be a combination of Lehman Bros. and NEW credit crunch issues with other big banks.
If "Golden" Goldman Sachs reports a large writedown that will scare the shit out of Wall Street since they are considered the gold standard.

Vix is going up on a daily basis. XLF (bank index) is ticking down.

World markets are hurting.....look at China, eight straight days of down in their stock market.

Next week banks report their earnings (writeoffs).

Week after the Fed gets called to the carpet.

What happens if they don't raise rates on Jun 25 and it is already priced into the dollar ?


Meltdown before the end of the month is my thinking.
  • #93,351
  • Jun 13, 2008 8:24am Jun 13, 2008 8:24am
Quoting lilmoe
this reflects ONLY what i make on my m30 strategy. my longer term trades, and catch the top/bottom trades are not included.
Hi,
can you post a chart for what exactly you mean by "long positions should be taken into consideration when price is above 50ema. enter long when gann flips and lines up (whichever comes last)"

Thanks
  • #93,352
  • Jun 13, 2008 8:25am Jun 13, 2008 8:25am
Quoting lilmoe
this reflects ONLY what i make on my m30 strategy. my longer term trades, and catch the top/bottom trades are not included.
I had a suggestion earlier to help you maximise the returns,, but from these numbers you are well balanced, nothing to add
  • #93,353
  • Jun 13, 2008 8:26am Jun 13, 2008 8:26am
Going Down?
Attached Image
  • #93,354
  • Jun 13, 2008 8:29am Jun 13, 2008 8:29am
Quoting gene22
I had a suggestion earlier to help you maximise the returns,, but from these numbers you are well balanced, nothing to add
yeah. As long he limits his risk and losses, he should be fine.
  • #93,355
  • Jun 13, 2008 8:29am Jun 13, 2008 8:29am
Quoting advancefx
Going Down?
the pair is scary as the pic is ..
  • #93,356
  • Jun 13, 2008 8:29am Jun 13, 2008 8:29am
DJI is about to open!
  • #93,357
  • Jun 13, 2008 8:30am Jun 13, 2008 8:30am
Quoting advancefx
Going Down?
better u put chart rather than centipede...
  • #93,358
  • Jun 13, 2008 8:30am Jun 13, 2008 8:30am
June 13 (Bloomberg) -- The U.K. will demand disclosure of short selling in rights offerings and may restrict investors from borrowing the stocks after plunging share prices hampered banks' attempts to increase capital.
The Financial Services Authority will impose the requirements June 20, the regulator said today in a statement in London. They follow a slump in Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc and HBOS Plc as they tried to raise 16 billion pounds ($31 billion) of capital by selling new shares. HBOS, the U.K.'s biggest mortgage lender, rose as much as 11 percent today.
Britain, regarded as the most open of the world's financial centers, becomes the first major market in Europe to put limits on short-selling. The FSA cited short bets for ``severe volatility in the shares of companies conducting rights issues.'' HBOS, seeking to raise 4 billion pounds in its share sale, fell below the price of its rights offer this week before recovering.

Now, if this does not spell panick than I do not know what does, if you cann't short sell the amount that you want in a bear market therefore limiting your potential exposure to risk than I guess the only way is to buy right?????
Wrong, what a bunch of crap for the rhetoric of free markets. That does not spell confidence to me, not at all, it might have a short positive effect but the aftermath won't be pretty, somebody is scared, really scared...
  • #93,359
  • Jun 13, 2008 8:35am Jun 13, 2008 8:35am
Quoting LeoBond
DJI is about to open!
And so It rallies and Geppy is once again out of synch??? anybody have cooment on DJI, Malcomb?
  • #93,360
  • Jun 13, 2008 8:38am Jun 13, 2008 8:38am
G8 is this weekend, and maybe people will be afraid to hold positions over weekend, so maybe there will be a big sell-off of jpy pairs before todays' close
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