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Today's Price Distribution Analysis

  • #1
  • First Post: Jun 6, 2008 7:29am Jun 6, 2008 7:29am
In the News>Technical Analysis Section
  • #2
  • Jun 6, 2008 7:47am Jun 6, 2008 7:47am
right on the dot as usual DRT
now waiting to see if it holds above

EURUSD

Traders should have set longs yesterday on the move through 1.5418 and exited on the push into the balance level of 1.5551. We continued to build value above the balance level which is a bullish sign for further upside potential. Traders can set new longs on a move down to balance at 1.5551 and target the 1.5685 level. Exit here and observe. Our longs would be proven wrong if price moves back below balance and settles there. If this occurs, traders should exit longs.

I expect price to range trade between the 1.551 and 1.5685 level before further upside. If price does move up and holds below the1.5685 level, then we can look to set shorts for a move back down to balance.
  • #3
  • Jun 6, 2008 8:06am Jun 6, 2008 8:06am
We want to watch the 1.5675 level now that it has been reached. If we build value around this level but move below, we may want to set up shorts for a trip back down to balance at 5535. NFP is always a whacky day and I would not be quick to short the EURO just yet.

On the same note, we could move up out of this level in search of sellers and challenge the 1.5815 level from previous distributions.
  • #4
  • Jun 6, 2008 8:33am Jun 6, 2008 8:33am
alright
Quoting DownRiverTrader
We want to watch the 1.5675 level now that it has been reached. If we build value around this level but move below, we may want to set up shorts for a trip back down to balance at 5535. NFP is always a whacky day and I would not be quick to short the EURO just yet.

On the same note, we could move up out of this level in search of sellers and challenge the 1.5815 level from previous distributions.
  • #5
  • Jun 6, 2008 9:11am Jun 6, 2008 9:11am
I realize it is counterintuitive, but you should be looking to ....

Set Longs on USDJPY on the push below 105.68

The market is giving you the entry.
  • #6
  • Jun 6, 2008 9:42am Jun 6, 2008 9:42am
thanks drt, i will look for the entry.

i have a question for you, but i am not sure i should ask it here. it is about the entry and when to get in. is it cool to ask it here or should i do it in another thread??
  • #7
  • Jun 10, 2008 7:50pm Jun 10, 2008 7:50pm
Price Distribution Analysis for trade date 6.11.2008
  • #8
  • Jun 11, 2008 4:32am Jun 11, 2008 4:32am
PDA Guide 6.11.2008
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf PDA Guide 6.11.2008.pdf   12 KB | 738 downloads
  • #9
  • Jun 11, 2008 6:18am Jun 11, 2008 6:18am
Good morninig DRT,

Just read the PDF file, thanks so much.
There is a possible typo on EURUSD line:
Moving directionally downwards an objective area of 1.5521 (ie., 1.5221)

trader8686
  • #10
  • Edited 11:18am Jun 11, 2008 6:46am | Edited 11:18am
DRT,

My questions after read the PDA Guide 6.11.2008.pdf, there is Long Term Balance:

1. How long is this Long Term Balance representing? 30 days, or longer.

2. Can I use this Long Term Balance (LTB) vs Daily Balance (DB) to monitor the price movement?
for example:
If my DB is under LTB, then my moving direction is likely going downward toward the lower Objective area.
If my DB is above LTB, then my moving direction is likely going upward toward the upper Objective area.


trader8686
  • #11
  • Jun 11, 2008 6:56pm Jun 11, 2008 6:56pm
PDA 6.12.2008

I have added the USDCHF to the position trading analysis.

Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf PDA Guide.pdf   22 KB | 583 downloads
  • #12
  • Jun 12, 2008 7:22am Jun 12, 2008 7:22am
As we approach the release of the retail sales number. Be aware of the sell the rumor and buy the fact phenomenon. Good luck today.

Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf PDA Guide.pdf   22 KB | 1,085 downloads
  • #13
  • Edited 9:00am Jun 12, 2008 8:11am | Edited 9:00am
DRT,

Just need your attaintion:
I thinks that all your jpg files here are gone.

for example, check it out on: Go here for Today's Price Distribution Analysis

trader8686
  • #14
  • Jun 12, 2008 2:11pm Jun 12, 2008 2:11pm
I have read a lot about V/OI from CME and about how to read Price Action Thru ...


I have gone in my research into such concept ..


I think that THIS is the REAL supply/demand of market ..

DRT : I'm soo thankfull for your posts ..

P.S : I tried to find a way cotacting you .. May you make it able to recieve msgs from me ?


thanx
  • #15
  • Jun 12, 2008 5:18pm Jun 12, 2008 5:18pm
Quoting omrangassan
I have read a lot about V/OI from CME and about how to read Price Action Thru ...


I have gone in my research into such concept ..


I think that THIS is the REAL supply/demand of market ..

DRT : I'm soo thankfull for your posts ..

P.S : I tried to find a way cotacting you .. May you make it able to recieve msgs from me ?

thanx
Feel free to ask question here. Nice to meet you too.
  • #16
  • Jun 13, 2008 2:45am Jun 13, 2008 2:45am
Quoting DownRiverTrader
Feel free to ask question here. Nice to meet you too.

l always prefer tocall such a MODEL not a METHOD ..
It How you SEE the Market ..


Ok .. I really want to ask :

1- How do you combine the V/OI with price action ? How do you process those all ?

2- How do you find your levels using Volume ?

3- What most useful clues that you want to see in V/OI/P to see a successful pattern ?


Thanx..


P.S: May we learn some clues of your method ?


nice to meet .. yas
  • #17
  • Jun 13, 2008 6:07am Jun 13, 2008 6:07am
Although not confirmed by my analysis, the S&P 500 futures traders are showing us signs of a reveral of the recent downtrend. I am watching for continued value building above the objective level at this point. It may take a few more sessions to confirm or abandon this thought, but it is something to keep your eye on since it seems to drive the Forex market more and more everyday. I am actually fairly bullish US equities over the medium term. I purchased S&P call options for the end of the year back in February just in case.

http://www.pdanalysis.com/storage/ES%20Futres.PNG
  • #18
  • Jun 17, 2008 5:37am Jun 17, 2008 5:37am
A good trader must be confident and act decisively. We all have a tendency to feel as though if we don't hit the button immediately, we will lose a perfect opportunity. While this is certainly the case some of the time, it is not the rule. Acting decisively and quickly are two very differnet concepts. When trading price distribution areas or levels, it is better to observe first and trade second in my opinion. As the market builds value near a level, it will often re-visit this area more than once. In other words, the market will give you the opportunity to establish a position. Keep in mind that the levels here are presented on a monthly chart. Although, the levels are computed every 30 minutes they do not change greatly unless price action is extremely violatile, volume is high and ranges are large. Let the market come to you and then set your position. Now you can observe again and practice your trade management which is the real key to managing a successful trading business.
  • #19
  • Jun 18, 2008 3:57pm Jun 18, 2008 3:57pm
VOLATILITY WARNING - STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE BEGINNING WITH TONIGHTS ASIAN SESSION

Hello everyone. I hope all is well including your trading profits. I wanted to post this here in case the PDAnalysis gets lost in the News column early on...

Call it a hunch, but I want everyone to be on alert with their risk levels and positions. I don't think the markets will wait for the upcoming FOMC to get going. If I am wrong, well then....better safe then sorry.

Good trading
  • #20
  • Last Post: Jun 18, 2008 5:29pm Jun 18, 2008 5:29pm
Quoting DownRiverTrader
VOLATILITY WARNING - STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE BEGINNING WITH TONIGHTS ASIAN SESSION

Hello everyone. I hope all is well including your trading profits. I wanted to post this here in case the PDAnalysis gets lost in the News column early on...

Call it a hunch, but I want everyone to be on alert with their risk levels and positions. I don't think the markets will wait for the upcoming FOMC to get going. If I am wrong, well then....better safe then sorry.

Good trading
Just a bump up to make everyone aware of my thoughts.
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