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Knowledge is Power

  • #181
  • Jun 12, 2008 3:17am Jun 12, 2008 3:17am
Since G7 obligations are DENOMINATED in domestic currencies the solution they will take and have taken to date is they will “print the money”. It is as simple as that. They will substitute another IOU (G7 currencies) for the existing ones. Default is unthinkable as they won’t be able borrow anymore, or print money and exchange them for REAL things like imports and energy supplies. It is inflate or die, so they will inflate.
These realities are hard to accept, but the one bright spot is that YOU are aware of them. You can organize yourself in such a manner as to not be victim of them, and in fact benefit from them. Investors are in general confused as the assumptions they have been taught are NO LONGER true. BONDS and paper investments are POISON to your future. Learn how to SHORT CURCUIT the unfolding monetary debasement and confiscation of your wealth by your SOCIALIST, COLLECTIVIST public serpents and their banking masters. Markets must constantly REPRICE UP and Down to reflect the unfolding situation, creating volatility in all market sectors. VOLATILITY is OPPORTUNITY and it will unfold in spades over the coming years. You learn to make money in up and down markets, short circuit the debasement of your holdings. Its quite simple to do
Inflation will rear its ugly head over and over again in the coming years, but the public will not understand the altered relationship of their money. The day of recognition by the general public is YEARS away. They have no idea what is transpiring, nor do they know the source of the inflation problem--public servants and their banking masters. The mainstream media, public schools and your public servants have made sure you never get the straight story and that most people and their children don’t have the ability to recognize a lie said straight to their faces.
How do we know recognition is years away? Try and explain this to your friends. They will stare at you blankly! When they don’t return a blank stare you KNOW the “Crack up Boom” is at hand, at which point you must be out of all paper currencies and in GOLD or something that can’t be printed. In the meantime, inflation will continue as private and central banks pile infinite amounts of new currencies into their economies to service unpayable old debts, maturing obligations, support inflated asset values, and confiscate wealth from the citizens they are sworn to protect —to protect the value of their balance sheets and get more people onto the debt slavery rat wheel. The “Crack up Boom” looms directly ahead.
Flash: I don’t know what is transpiring but everyone at the fed and treasury are TALKING up the dollar, Richard Fisher, Tim Geithner, Helicopter Ben Bernanke, Hank Paulson. Smoke is in the air, I wonder where the fire is? I am sure we will soon find out!

Link:

http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/ed...2008/0611.html


Folks

I strongly suggest you read and understand this great informative article. Regardless of your opinion, you cannot change the facts. We are entering a new period of our life because of the greed and lunacy of the financial rocket scientists. The charts cannot and will not educate you. Ignorance is Bliss !!!

Bruce
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  • #182
  • Jun 12, 2008 3:48am Jun 12, 2008 3:48am
Warrenforex
Member Since Sep 2006
Posts: 730


http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon14.gif Without Any Charts But Understanding Them Here Is !!!
First STRONG Resistance is 107.75 and then 108.00 and then 108.15

Support is 107.25 and then 107.00 and then 106.50 and 106.40

Now Let Us Wait For The News, The Price of Oil, The Price of Gold. The Dow Futures. The Open at 9:30 AM Option Expiry at 10:00 AM and the London Close around Noon.

Also watch the REACTION to the News as well.

The Financials are still heading down and also watch the Yields on the 2 Year and the 10 Year US Bonds. That will tell you where the Funds are flowing !!!

The YIELD on the 10 Year US Bonds is NOW 4.11% which means They are being Sold as The Yield GOES UP. The 2 Years are heading towards 3.00% as they are being sold off. Gold is being sold off as is Oil and so where is the Money going ?

How About Back To China and Russia. The Euro and Yen are being sold and the funds are being kept in US Cash so the US Dollar Index is Stronger.

Getting Ready for more BAD Economic News Again. Look at JP Morgan now. I just heard now on CNBC BIG Increase in the Sale of $25 Puts months out.

Are they the Next Bear Stearnes with a measly 76 TRILLION in Derivatives. Who took over Bear Stearns ?

My My My !!! Has The Light Gone on as yet.


Bruce

The Dow Futures are UP 61 now.
Last edited by Warren Forex, Today 6:46am Reason: To Correct Spelling !!!
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  • #183
  • Jun 12, 2008 4:01am Jun 12, 2008 4:01am
Quoting Warren Forex
Warrenforex
Member Since Sep 2006
Posts: 730


http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon14.gif Without Any Charts But Understanding Them Here Is !!!
First STRONG Resistance is 107.75 and then 108.00 and then 108.15

Support is 107.25 and then 107.00 and then 106.50 and 106.40

Now Let Us Wait For The News, The Price of Oil, The Price of Gold. The Dow Futures. The Open at 9:30 AM Option Expiry at 10:00 AM and the London Close around Noon.

Also watch the REACTION to the News as well.

The Financials are still heading down and also watch the Yields on the 2 Year and the 10 Year US Bonds. That will tell you where the Funds are flowing !!!

The YIELD on the 10 Year US Bonds is NOW 4.11% which means They are being Sold as The Yield GOES UP. The 2 Years are heading towards 3.00% as they are being sold off. Gold is being sold off as is Oil and so where is the Money going ?

How About Back To China and Russia. The Euro and Yen are being sold and the funds are being kept in US Cash so the US Dollar Index is Stronger.

Getting Ready for more BAD Economic News Again. Look at JP Morgan now. I just heard now on CNBC BIG Increase in the Sale of $25 Puts months out.

Are they the Next Bear Stearnes with a measly 76 TRILLION in Derivatives. Who took over Bear Stearns ?

My My My !!! Has The Light Gone on as yet.


Bruce

The Dow Futures are UP 61 now.
Last edited by Warren Forex, Today 6:46am Reason: To Correct Spelling !!!
i was wondering where the money goes? equity down/bond down/yen/euro/gbp down,only flow may be commodity? if not,ppl are cashing their position for what reason? big financial crisis?
  • #184
  • Jun 12, 2008 4:32am Jun 12, 2008 4:32am
Quoting moneybookers
i was wondering where the money goes? equity down/bond down/yen/euro/gbp down,only flow may be commodity? if not,ppl are cashing their position for what reason? big financial crisis?
The Funds Flow Into Pure US CASH Billions and Probably Trillions !!!

It gets ready to Run back in as soon as there is some stability again. The Dow Futures are UP BUT watch 1 Hour From Now if Numbers out change PERCEPTIONS !!! A New Jobless Claims Number of OVER 400,000 Would SHOCK the Half Full Folks.

Dow Futures Up Now and KEEP in Mind Dow Pattern is to come back after a Move Up of 100 Points or so. Also there was a 200 Point Loss yesterday !!!


Bruce
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  • #185
  • Jun 12, 2008 7:14pm Jun 12, 2008 7:14pm
GBPUSD
At the time of posting
- White Spinning Top: no direction/neutral
- Appeared to be bearish

YESTERDAY CANDLESTICK SIGNAL
- Engulfing Bearish Candle: Bearish Signal
- Bearish Trending Candle takes over

2 DAYS AGO CANDLESTICK SIGNAL
- Piercing line: possible reversal

3 DAYS AGO CANDLESTICK SIGNAL
-- Black Inside Out Down: Sell Signal


5. GBPJPY
At the time of posting
- White Spinning Top: no direction/neutral
- Market overbought

YESTERDAY CANDLESTICK SIGNAL
- White Spinning Top: no direction/neutral
- Engulfing Bullish Confirmation: Bullish & Overbought

2 DAYS AGO CANDLESTICK SIGNAL
-- Double Doji Lines: possible reversal
-- Last Engulfing Bullish: possible Top
--Stochastic Oscillator: Overbought

3 DAYS AGO CANDLESTICK SIGNAL
--- Black Doji Star Reversal: possible top
--- Incomplete Dark Cloud Cover: Sell on confirmation
  • #186
  • Jun 12, 2008 9:16pm Jun 12, 2008 9:16pm
Warrenforex
Member Since Sep 2006
Posts: 760


http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon14.gif The Wrap Up !!!
http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

Snippet:

Oh that smell. Can't you smell that smell?
I was just pinging with Mr. Practical and we had the following exchange. We share it with ye faithful in the spirit of community.
Mr. Practical: Yields are upticking. Fed Fund Futures are implying a rate hike in September.
Toddo: Yeesh, talk about a death knell. That has "foreign influence" written all over it.
Mr. Practical: Central banks may have given notice to Ben that if he doesn't raise rates, the dollar is toast. We should remind Minyans to read The Pin Prick. It's as relevant today as it was then. Instead of foreign central banks abandoning the auction, they're giving him fair warning.
There is no breathing room for the box Bernanke is in. Several Fed governors are in open revolt calling for higher rates, and others are openly questioning the Term Auction Facility (TAF), and Primary Dealer Credit Facility (PDCF). US consumers are getting smoked by rising prices, banks are getting smoked by falling margins, rising defaults, and the need to raise capital. Housing will be further smoked if Bernanke is forced to raise rates and the dollar may be further smoked if he does not.
Economic Checkmate

Snippet:

click on chart for sharper image
While there is nothing unusual about treasury spreads widening, it is unusual for yields on the two year to soar in relation to yields on the 30 year long bond. A four standard deviation event occurred on Monday (see Treasury Curve Steepening Bet Blows Sky High) and there was a continuation on Tuesday. So this makes the third occurrence this week of the yield curve flattening at a higher level.
Such action is not good for financial companies that tend to borrow short and lend long. In fact, it's not good for the stock market on the whole.

Snippet:


How Big Was This Move?

Minyanville Professor Jason Goepfert writes:

How big is it? It's in the top 0.5% of all daily moves since 1975. Put another way, it's a four standard deviation event.

Are we going to now be hearing about funds going under that had put on leveraged curve steepeners?

I have strong doubts the Fed is going to hike given that any hikes will add to the wreckage in housing. However, if the Fed does hike, it will be for one reason only: It was forced to by the markets. It sure won't be because of a strengthening economy.

One day does not necessarily prove much, but the fact that there was no selloff in the long bond today in spite of a massive move in the 2's may be telling.

Whatever inflation scare is happening, the long bond sure did not see it today.



Bruce
Last edited by Warren Forex, Today 12:14am Reason: Add Snippet:

http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/progress.gif

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  • #187
  • Jun 12, 2008 11:29pm Jun 12, 2008 11:29pm
Hi Bruce,

Thanks for all your help and all the great links.

From what I've been reading, it does seem that any rate increase would simply exacerbate the credit crisis. I also see what you mean about the govt/media trying to shape perception. I'm still not sure how you trade this wth regard to "FTP" Is it simply a matter of having a bearish bias and using tech to catch the switch from perception to reality(fundamentals)? In the short term, it seems like I'm just trading around perception like anyone else. How do you know when the market is beginning to recognize bearish data(other than looking at charts)?

Still learning....
  • #188
  • Jun 13, 2008 3:52am Jun 13, 2008 3:52am
  •  FxChi
  • | Joined Dec 2007 | Status: Cash Rules Everything Around Me | 749 Posts
Quoting racetrack
Hi Bruce,

Thanks for all your help and all the great links.

From what I've been reading, it does seem that any rate increase would simply exacerbate the credit crisis. I also see what you mean about the govt/media trying to shape perception. I'm still not sure how you trade this wth regard to "FTP" Is it simply a matter of having a bearish bias and using tech to catch the switch from perception to reality(fundamentals)? In the short term, it seems like I'm just trading around perception like anyone else. How do you know when the market is beginning to recognize bearish data(other than looking at charts)?

Still learning....
Great question racetrack. I was wondering the same thing. Bruce - these are some great posts. Keep it up. I especially like Jim Sinclaire's site.
"Wishful thinking dies hard." Igor T.
  • #189
  • Edited 4:06am Jun 13, 2008 3:58am | Edited 4:06am
Quoting racetrack
Hi Bruce,

Thanks for all your help and all the great links.

From what I've been reading, it does seem that any rate increase would simply exacerbate the credit crisis. I also see what you mean about the govt/media trying to shape perception. I'm still not sure how you trade this wth regard to "FTP" Is it simply a matter of having a bearish bias and using tech to catch the switch from perception to reality(fundamentals)? In the short term, it seems like I'm just trading around perception like anyone else. How do you know when the market is beginning to recognize bearish data(other than looking at charts)?

Still learning....
The situation that we are in now is an excellent example of how to take advantage of the real knowledge of what is going on at the present time.

It is clear to anyone who has been following my posts that the FED has intervened to influence the US Dollar higher against all the other currencies even though the fundamentals concerning the US economy has gotten much worse during that time.

Now you need to know how to survive the situation and benefit from it. You cannot benefit if you bought the false PERCEPTION that all is well.

Therefore being aware of the truth you can position yourself for the change again back to REALITY.

There are many other things to learn such as Money Management and Risk Management such as the release this morning of the CPI at 8:30 AM and the Preliminary release at 10:00 AM of the Michigan FED number.

Knowing also what is going on in all the other markets is important. For instance at this moment at 5:56 AM EST in Montreal as I type this reply to you, I see on my TV screen tuned to CNBC that the following numbers represent where things stand now before the 8:30 AM numbers.

Overnight the Nikkei went up 85.13

However now All Europe markets are being sold off with the Dax down 49.80 and the FTSE down 53.90 and the CAC down 44.60

The Dow Futures are Off 40 and Gold is Down $4.00 to $868 US

Oil is down $ 1.08 at $135.66 US


The Yen is now at 108.10 having hit overnight a high of 108.306 and the Euro is down 108 PIPS. Now for the very important DATA which is the the US Bonds. The 2 year US Bond is now yielding an incredible 3.07% while the actual FED funds rate at present time is 2.0% The 10 year US Bond is now yielding 4.24%

The US Dollar Index has shot UP overnight over 50 basis points at 74.18 with the BIGGEST Jump coming at 5:00 AM going from 73.98 to where it is now. This has happened before where there is a big jump sometimes at 5:00 AM

I just read that a US Bank has been a BIG buyer of the US Dollar.

Now to put sense to all the numbers and become aware of the money flow and what is actually going on.

Everything is being sold off at the moment BUT the biggest CLUE is where the money is going. Since the 2 year and the 10 year US Bonds are being sold in incredible amounts proven by the extraordinary rising yield which creates an inverse yield curve which makes it actually hard for the banking system to earn money. Why would the FED create this situation ?

They are desperate at the present moment because of the extreme fragile nature of the world FIAT money system and the TRILLIONS of losses that the banks have not yet declared.

Something very serious is going on. Here is what it is. Most of the sales especially the US Bonds are going into PURE CASH as Art Cashin of CNBC pointed out a few weeks ago when the same thing happened.

Why ? Uncertainty ! Once new Data is known to all of the market and events like the G8 meeting being held this weekend are concluded then the money will flow back into various assets such as Gold, Oil, US Bonds and the OTHER Currencies such as the Yen and Euro which is the other reserve currency of the world.

Knowing what is happening gives me and other sophisticated traders in all markets including the stock markets a great EDGE.

You are then AWARE and READY for the REVERSAL back to REALITY.

The reality just might be the FED not raising the FED discount rate over 2% later this month. Even though for the last 10 days or so, they have convinced the markets they will raise.

In fact so much so that the YIELD on the 2 year US Bonds are now an amazing 3.07% even though the FED rate is 2.0%

The markets have told them, the FED, to raise since the CAT is finally out of the bag. What CAT ? That guess what ? There is serious INFLATION caused by the FED and other central banks around the world printing incredible amounts of money to KEEP the FIAT Money system alive and well.

That is why they constantly TRY to hold down the REAL STORE of Wealth since the beginning of time as we know it. They are fighting an impossible battle which they have to eventually lose as the laws of nature and economics take over.

What happens now if they do not raise later this month at the next FED meeting ? Since the markets have demanded a RAISE of at least 25 basis point to 2.25% still well below the present yield of 3.07% on the 2 year US Bonds then the markets will know the FED is not credible anymore.

The ECB has already told us that they will raise in July by 25 basis points to fight inflation.

If the FED raises they put the final nail in the coffin of the US Economy !

If they do nothing they lose all the rest of their remaining credibility ! They are trapped. Knowing this as a basically fundamental currency trader gives me my EDGE.

The rest of June 2008 should be fascinating as events unfold. There is no easy way to become an excellent FX trader as I surely am, based on my results real trading over the last 2 plus years since March 2006.

While it is very important to use the charts for proper entry and exit of your currency positions the charts cannot give you the information that I just have.

FTP as Mr Hewison of WWW. INO.COM talks about in their video which represents;

FUNDAMENTALS, TECHNICALS and PERCEPTION !

There you have it. If you have any comments or questions please post them here on Forex Factory one of the BEST Forex Forums in the world in the thread called ,"Knowledge Is Power"

I hope I have helped you learn something. There is plenty more to learn. I have been in this business since September 2003 and only started trading with REAL FUNDS as much as $250,000 US only in March 2006.

I myself have a lot to still learn even though 80% of all my FX trades are profitable and I can and do achieve a return of at least 20% a month regardless of market conditions. In fact, I do better in times like this since I have a EDGE on most traders by knowing what is going on. Therefore I understand and know when the PERCEPTION is not the REALITY and as the actual real facts come out like the recent NFP report showing the Unemployment Rate in the USA is now at 5.5%

That information sent the Dow down 394 points recently and sent the USD/JPY up and since that is the currency that I specialize in now, I had my EDGE and my results.

Thank you for your patience in reading this very long post that I have spend the last hour writing as it is now 6:56 AM on the 13TH of June 2008. An important day in my life as my Mother died on June 13, 1995, 13 years ago today.

G-D Bless her Memory !

Amen !


Bruce Warren Margolese
{Promotion Removed}
  • #190
  • Jun 13, 2008 4:46am Jun 13, 2008 4:46am
  •  FxChi
  • | Joined Dec 2007 | Status: Cash Rules Everything Around Me | 749 Posts
Quoting Warren Forex
The situation that we are in now is an excellent example of how to take advantage of the real knowledge of what is going on at the present time.

It is clear to anyone who has been following my posts that the FED has intervened to influence the US Dollar higher against all the other currencies even though the fundamentals concerning the US economy has gotten much worse during that time.

Now you need to know how to survive the situation and benefit from it. You cannot benefit if you bought the false PERCEPTION that all is well.

Therefore being aware of the truth you can position yourself for the change again back to REALITY.

There are many other things to learn such as Money Management and Risk Management such as the release this morning of the CPI at 8:30 AM and the Preliminary release at 10:00 AM of the Michigan FED number.

Knowing also what is going on in all the other markets is important. For instance at this moment at 5:56 AM EST in Montreal as I type this reply to you, I see on my TV screen tuned to CNBC that the following numbers represent where things stand now before the 8:30 AM numbers.

Overnight the Nikkei went up 85.13

However now All Europe markets are being sold off with the Dax down 49.80 and the FTSE down 53.90 and the CAC down 44.60

The Dow Futures are Off 40 and Gold is Down $4.00 to $868 US

Oil is down $ 1.08 at $135.66 US


The Yen is now at 108.10 having hit overnight a high of 108.306 and the Euro is down 108 PIPS. Now for the very important DATA which is the the US Bonds. The 2 year US Bond is now yielding an incredible 3.07% while the actual FED funds rate at present time is 2.0% The 10 year US Bond is now yielding 4.24%

The US Dollar Index has shot UP overnight over 50 basis points at 74.18 with the BIGGEST Jump coming at 5:00 AM going from 73.98 to where it is now. This has happened before where there is a big jump sometimes at 5:00 AM

I just read that a US Bank has been a BIG buyer of the US Dollar.

Now to put sense to all the numbers and become aware of the money flow and what is actually going on.

Everything is being sold off at the moment BUT the biggest CLUE is where the money is going. Since the 2 year and the 10 year US Bonds are being sold in incredible amounts proven by the extraordinary rising yield which creates an inverse yield curve which makes it actually hard for the banking system to earn money. Why would the FED create this situation ?

They are desperate at the present moment because of the extreme fragile nature of the world FIAT money system and the TRILLIONS of losses that the banks have not yet declared.

Something very serious is going on. Here is what it is. Most of the sales especially the US Bonds are going into PURE CASH as Art Cashin of CNBC pointed out a few weeks ago when the same thing happened.

Why ? Uncertainty ! Once new Data is known to all of the market and events like the G8 meeting being held this weekend are concluded then the money will flow back into various assets such as Gold, Oil, US Bonds and the OTHER Currencies such as the Yen and Euro which is the other reserve currency of the world.

Knowing what is happening gives me and other sophisticated traders in all markets including the stock markets a great EDGE.

You are then AWARE and READY for the REVERSAL back to REALITY.

The reality just might be the FED not raising the FED discount rate over 2% later this month. Even though for the last 10 days or so, they have convinced the markets they will raise.

In fact so much so that the YIELD on the 2 year US Bonds are now an amazing 3.07% even though the FED rate is 2.0%

The markets have told them, the FED, to raise since the CAT is finally out of the bag. What CAT ? That guess what ? There is serious INFLATION caused by the FED and other central banks around the world printing incredible amounts of money to KEEP the FIAT Money system alive and well.

That is why they constantly TRY to hold down the REAL STORE of Wealth since the beginning of time as we know it. They are fighting an impossible battle which they have to eventually lose as the laws of nature and economics take over.

What happens now if they do not raise later this month at the next FED meeting ? Since the markets have demanded a RAISE of at least 25 basis point to 2.25% still well below the present yield of 3.07% on the 2 year US Bonds then the markets will know the FED is not credible anymore.

The ECB has already told us that they will raise in July by 25 basis points to fight inflation.

If the FED raises they put the final nail in the coffin of the US Economy !

If they do nothing they lose all the rest of their remaining credibility ! They are trapped. Knowing this as a basically fundamental currency trader gives me my EDGE.

The rest of June 2008 should be fascinating as events unfold. There is no easy way to become an excellent FX trader as I surely am, based on my results real trading over the last 2 plus years since March 2006.

While it is very important to use the charts for proper entry and exit of your currency positions the charts cannot give you the information that I just have.

FTP as Mr Hewison of WWW. INO.COM talks about in their video which represents;

FUNDAMENTALS, TECHNICALS and PERCEPTION !

There you have it. If you have any comments or questions please post them here on Forex Factory one of the BEST Forex Forums in the world in the thread called ,"Knowledge Is Power"

I hope I have helped you learn something. There is plenty more to learn. I have been in this business since September 2003 and only started trading with REAL FUNDS as much as $250,000 US only in March 2006.

I myself have a lot to still learn even though 80% of all my FX trades are profitable and I can and do achieve a return of at least 20% a month regardless of market conditions. In fact, I do better in times like this since I have a EDGE on most traders by knowing what is going on. Therefore I understand and know when the PERCEPTION is not the REALITY and as the actual real facts come out like the recent NFP report showing the Unemployment Rate in the USA is now at 5.5%

That information sent the Dow down 394 points recently and sent the USD/JPY up and since that is the currency that I specialize in now, I had my EDGE and my results.

Thank you for your patience in reading this very long post that I have spend the last hour writing as it is now 6:56 AM on the 13TH of June 2008. An important day in my life as my Mother died on June 13, 1995, 13 years ago today.

G-D Bless her Memory !

Amen !


Bruce Warren Margolese
Excellent post again (apologies about your mother though. Sorry to hear).

Thanks for enlightening us on the current situation and I look forward to learning more. Question - would it be possible to go into the money management aspect of your trading approaching these releases. I'd assume that you follow fundamental announcements most and position yourself prior to major impact events that seem to "shock" the market with reversals but you're ready for them because you're not buying all the crap in the media and are aware of the truths. I'm just curious to know how to really apply this.

I mean earlier in the week when I saw the 200 pip drop in Euro b/c of Ben, I thought no way, this can't be happening. Why are the markets buying his crap? If he raises rates financials/housing are screwed. If he leaves as is dollar is screwed. I would interpret this as major dollar weakness and a trader could simply short the dollar by a small amount (in case it keeps strengthening to no margin call) every time it strengthened until the reversal happens. Anyways, I was wondering if it would be possible to share perhaps a specific example of how you traded knowing the general public isn't being clued in. Sounds like the USD/JPY was a good play - care to share the approach on that?

Also before I forget I was reading that Central Banks across the world are printing more and more money. Wouldn't this just be devaluing currencies across the board? If they're all being devalued, then shouldn't precious metals such as Gold be skyrocketing? Also, should we as smart currency traders also be playing Gold then, as there's likely a pretty siginificant bull run in the coming years due to devalued currencies?

Apologies if these are elementary questions, I'm still a newb to the markets so trying to learn. Thanks.
"Wishful thinking dies hard." Igor T.
  • #191
  • Jun 13, 2008 5:10am Jun 13, 2008 5:10am
  •  FxChi
  • | Joined Dec 2007 | Status: Cash Rules Everything Around Me | 749 Posts
I just had another question as I was taking shower before I run out, but it's regarding today's CPI data. It's expected at .2%, but I'm pretty sure it'll be higher than expected (this me being an American consumer, it seems clear inflation is here as everything costs more now). Anyways how would higher than expected CPI data play into your expectations of the current market?
"Wishful thinking dies hard." Igor T.
  • #192
  • Edited 6:48pm Jun 13, 2008 6:41pm | Edited 6:48pm
Quoting FxChi
I just had another question as I was taking shower before I run out, but it's regarding today's CPI data. It's expected at .2%, but I'm pretty sure it'll be higher than expected (this me being an American consumer, it seems clear inflation is here as everything costs more now). Anyways how would higher than expected CPI data play into your expectations of the current market?

I really appreciate your comments. It is nice to know there are some people like yourself that want to really learn. One of my best sources of information and someone who tells it like it is without spin is "Jim Willie" who publishes a newsletter. I have been learning from him since 1999 when I discovered his writings. He posts often on Financial Sense an excellent free resource website. He just posted today, June 13, 2008, an editorial that fully explains in easy to understand language what has really be going on the last two weeks or so.

I will post the link now and post some snippets.

He is way more knowledgeable than I however since we have access to the information, all we need to do is read it. I can explain it in case you have follow up questions.

Here is the LinK:

http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/ed...2008/0613.html

Snippet:

The Treasury Yield Curve & Gold

by Jim Willie, CB. Editor, Hat Trick Letter | June 13, 2008

Print
Some very confusing factors are at work relating to the USTreasury Bond market and the gold market. To assume that gold will rise in kneejerk fashion in response to the gargantuan grotesque growth in monetary inflation (aka US$ money supply) is simply naïve for the public and amateurish for professionals. Never in the US history has more confusion reigned within the body financial. This is to be expected, since the US banking system is insolvent, in parallel to the US housing landscape being increasingly insolvent. The nation must soon make difficult decisions on rebuilding the United States, its infrastructure, its energy supply industry, and put down its military weapons used abroad. Some strange effects are detectable regarding the USTreasury yield curve changes in recent weeks. They coincide with the broader usage of the US Federal Reserve Lending Facilities. In my view, the USFed is slowly killing the USEconomy in order to grant a reprieve to a criminal collusion of corrupt Wall Street bankers. They lied, they cheated, they stole, and now they are being given money as that same funds are being drained from the private sector. The evidence lies in the USTreasury yield curve and gold price. Helicopter Ben Bernanke is more like a Mad Scientist draining the blood out of a victim on a surgeon’s table. His helicopters only travel over Wall Street. He has become a tool for the Manhattan Ruling Elite.
USTREASURY YIELD CURVE CHANGES
The USTreasury yield spread is of crucial importance. The ratio of the 10-year USTreasury yield to the 2-year yield is telling the story of the USFed betrayal to the economic participants on Main Street USA. The gold price tends to rise in brisk fashion when the yield ratio rises. The gold price consolidates when the yield ratio tends to consolidate. Here is some reasoning as to why. Generally, a flat yield curve has the short-term yields roughly equal to the long-term yield. That signals a period of economic stagnation expected. The cost of short-term money would not be very high, since no significant demand would come for that money intended for business investment. Economic prospects would be somewhat dampened. Generally, a steep yield curve has long-term yields much higher than short-term. The cost of long-term money would be set higher in order to reflect the erosion from price inflation on assets. The entire system would gear toward the systemic price inflation. Volumes can be written on the yield curve topic. The short and long ends of the USTreasury yield curve do not stand still. In recent weeks, both ends are rising. The short end is rising much faster, in almost a scary fashion, like a panic.

Snippet:

Pressure is acute on the USFed itself on interest rate policy. The 3-month TBill yield remains near 2.0%, but the 2-year TBill has moved to 2.9% on its yield. With the official Fed Funds rate at 2.0%, the bond market is pulling the USFed into a rate hike, when the opposite is needed for aiding mortgage rates, housing, and easier credit conditions for the strained USEconomy. One could describe the internal conditions of the Untied States are the best living example of what Ludwig Von Mises described as a CRACK-UP BOOM. The term will soon enter the active lexicon of financial media writers, anchors, and pundits, but they will make it sound like a positive development. Intense political pressure will next push the USFed to restore the steeper slope in the USTreasury yield curve. They will be urged to lower the Fed Funds rate, but before such action, an experiment will be conducted. They will attempt to push down the 2-year TBill yield back toward 2.0% when it now threatens the 3.0% level. Their success is uncertain.
In the last few months, since the USFed opened its Lending Facilities, the USTreasury yield curve has the 10yr/2yr ratio sliding lower. Big banks lend long and borrow short. So their profit margin on lending is being strained, even as the USFed has been giving them a reprieve on their impaired bonds. What an irony! This cannot continue! Wall Street applauds the rescue of banks, which by the way are still in dire straits. Lehman Brothers is in the process of implosion, as predicted. Wall Street has trumpeted a very false message that the bond swaps conducted by the USFed have fixed the problem. Not only are they dead wrong, but the USFed actions have ensured a deeper USEconomic recession, since they refuse to deploy PURE MONETIZATION. USFed officials are scared to death at the cost inflation problem sweeping the nation, led by energy and food prices. The dire situation with Bear Stearns coincides with a faltering of the USTreasury yield curve steep slope. Few have noticed, probably because Wall Street enjoys the largesse and socialist medicine. My patience continues as news is hoped eventually for criminal indictments and convictions of Wall Street executives. Instead, they are on planning boards for USGovt-led rescues.
The next round of largesse will be more complicated and difficult to pull off. Lehman Brothers is doomed not to survive as an independent corporate entity. Their business lines are shriveling. Investment banking? What investment banking? After selling lemonade laced with subprime rat poison, the lemonade market has surprisingly vanished. Lehman Brothers might be better diversified than Bear Stearns, but almost all those diversified business lines are simultaneously suffering major losses. The Lehman story will drive home the point that contagion in the banking crisis extends far beyond mortgages. The kill job of Lehman Brothers is now being planned. It will be much more difficult for JPMorgan to devour them, to raid their assets and to discard their rubbish bonds into the secret JPMorgan ‘Garbage Can’ that eludes all accounting requirements. The US Congress might wish to investigate the actions by JPMorgan, but those sessions are mere window dressing, a charade to satisfy the public, to dupe them into believing that officials are scrutinizing the matter. A grand consolidation of banking power is in progress. Most people are totally unaware. They are such fools that they probably still believe Bear Stearns was rescued!!! They could not recognize a burial site and tombstone.

Snippet:

Put aside the betrayal of worker savings from the premeditated, calculated, persistent policy of monetary inflation. Savings in deposits pay 4% when price inflation rages over 10%, resulting in erosion and corrosion and implosion of savings. What makes the current USTreasury yield curve confusing right now is that the US Federal Reserve is draining the banking system as it attempts to balance its bond portfolio. The USFed is not an altruistic firm, but rather a monolith parasite. All the Lending Facility swaps to relieve badly damaged bond impairment have put them on the USFed’s balance sheet, while the many troubled banks hold the more valued Treasurys. The USFed has been reacting since late March by selling USTreasurys into the market, alongside their own accumulation of those USTreasurys. Thus, bond yields have risen. The USFed is essentially draining the private sector in order to bail out the Wall Street bank sector. This is blatant elite socialism, putting the Middle Class in a vise, since the primary directive for over two decades has been TO PREVENT SECONDARY INFLATION EFFECTS IN THE FORM OF WAGE GAINS. Today is a time of desperate need for better wages, as people cannot handle higher costs in their lives. Without higher wages, companies cannot raise prices. Higher wages mean greater ability to pay higher prices. The system is dissolving before our eyes. USGovt officials continue to claim the Untied States has strong fundamentals, and a strong USDollar is in our best interest. One is reminded of murder movies where the killer tells the victim that he is enabling a better life.
Steadfast refusal to permit higher wages, the dreaded secondary inflation effect, is a vivid betrayal by the USFed to pursue strong and stable employment conditions. They are defending the USTreasury Bond yields from rampant systemic inflation, no more. They are aiding and abetting the historical kill of the US Middle Class and US Corporate environment outside the protected, coddled, and corrupt financial sector. Then again, is this not the Rockefeller New American Century plan installed??? They quietly are working within US institutions, media included, to return a concentration of economic and banking power to the hands of a few multi-billionaires. The evidence is everywhere, but the recognition is nowhere. The movement occurs side by side with the gradual implosion of the financial system, whose downward spiral is led by the dissolution of the risk pricing model. The mortgages\ arena is only the tip of this iceberg. And subprime mortgages are only the tip of the mortgage iceberg.

COMMENT FROM BRUCE - HERE IS WHY OIL IS GOING UP !!!

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CRUDE OIL SPECULATORS ARE BIG BANKS
Lastly, a comment on crude oil and the concern over speculators. Some of the biggest speculators are the Wall Street bankers. As policy have been discussed toward more speculator control, some of the biggest violators are Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, and Deutsche Bank. This group has been very active in buying and leasing enormous storage tanks for holding crude oil. They have been active in recent months in securing a vertical integration of control, from owning oil storage centers, oil pipelines, electrical power plants, and gasoline refineries. They even purchased some future North Sea oil production. All this without a single peep in the subservient US financial press networks! Details are provided in the June Hat Trick Letter. They destroyed the housing & mortgage industry. The have set their sights on the energy industry next. Tighter control of speculators would enable them to control the energy market much more effectively. JPMorgan taught Enron everything they ever learned.
The new rules will not apply to Wall Street firms. Why? Because they make the rules, and when they break the rules, the regulators do not enforce rule violations. Why? Because they serve on agencies as regulators. The system is broken, and the grand fissures are extending to the energy market. Has anyone asked whether the crude oil price is rising in response to failed confidence in the US custodians and concerns over a wider disastrous war in the Middle East? Perhaps a few inside the US and the majority outside the US. Has anyone asked if the crude oil price is rising as a Lame Duck president effect? Not really. Has anyone noticed that the crude oil price rose sharply after further belligerent comments came from the US Military and its MidEast small nation ally against Iran? A few did last week, but their voices have not been invited back onto financial media stages. Take a closer look at Wall Street banks and their crude oil storage, their arbitrage, and their urges to Congress to limit competition. The Mussolini Fascist Business Model might be extending its lethal tentacles from banking into the energy market.


Bruce
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  • #193
  • Edited 6:45pm Jun 13, 2008 6:44pm | Edited 6:45pm
Bruce - what do you expect for the dollar next week after the G7 meetingw?
History is written by the victors.
  • #194
  • Edited 7:22pm Jun 13, 2008 7:19pm | Edited 7:22pm
Quoting FxChi
Excellent post again (apologies about your mother though. Sorry to hear).

Thanks for enlightening us on the current situation and I look forward to learning more. Question - would it be possible to go into the money management aspect of your trading approaching these releases. I'd assume that you follow fundamental announcements most and position yourself prior to major impact events that seem to "shock" the market with reversals but you're ready for them because you're not buying all the crap in the media and are aware of the truths. I'm just curious to know how to really apply this.

I mean earlier in the week when I saw the 200 pip drop in Euro b/c of Ben, I thought no way, this can't be happening. Why are the markets buying his crap? If he raises rates financials/housing are screwed. If he leaves as is dollar is screwed. I would interpret this as major dollar weakness and a trader could simply short the dollar by a small amount (in case it keeps strengthening to no margin call) every time it strengthened until the reversal happens. Anyways, I was wondering if it would be possible to share perhaps a specific example of how you traded knowing the general public isn't being clued in. Sounds like the USD/JPY was a good play - care to share the approach on that?

Also before I forget I was reading that Central Banks across the world are printing more and more money. Wouldn't this just be devaluing currencies across the board? If they're all being devalued, then shouldn't precious metals such as Gold be skyrocketing? Also, should we as smart currency traders also be playing Gold then, as there's likely a pretty siginificant bull run in the coming years due to devalued currencies?

Apologies if these are elementary questions, I'm still a newb to the markets so trying to learn. Thanks.

We all need to start to learn somewhere. No apologies needed and no question is stupid. Ask anything that you want to learn from me. It is my pleasure to share my knowledge with you. Let me skip around some in your questions. The CPI this morning was higher but it really was no big deal as everyone knows now about the inflation problem. The more important news was at 9:55 AM with the Preliminary Michigan FED number being much worse than Consensus. That cooled off the market until the last hour when the PPT moved up the Dow on the EVE of the G8 meeting. If and When the Dow gets bekow 12,000, We HAVE MELTDOWN !!!

We were near 12,100 for awhile. Gold came back and Oil was only off a bit.

The FED trys and fails to KEEP Gold down as it tells US all there is Inflation. I will get you a great link on Gold and it's MANIPULATION !

The Organization is GATA Try http://www.gata.org/

Bottom Line more BAD data on US Economy but It ALL seems Good.

Here is how we benefit and make good money. Notice today EVEN with the Dow up over 150 points USD/JPY could not break above 108.50

That is very telling !

I was shorting it all morning time after time up until NOON as it got up Over 108.25 and kept coming back to just under 107.95

So My LOSS RISK was perhaps 25 PIPS as I got GREAT ENTRY.

If and when the Dow Reverses down we are so near 12,000 The Ride down on USD/JPY could be PLUS 200 PIPS !

So Good Entry knowing that the ODDS of it going to 109.00 is NOT good as the Dow would need to go to 13,000 which it will not because of upcoming economic news.

Knowing the FED is trapped and cannot raise yet the raise is in the US Dollar Index now. What happens on June 24, 2008 at 2:15 PM when the FED holds ?

If they DO RAISE .... Good Bye Economy ! The ECB raises in July 2008 to 4.25%

CHECKMATE AGAIN !

Now WE both are ahead of the Crowd and have our EDGE. We are waiting for the turnaround KNOWING the ODDS favor it going towards 106.00 rather than 110.00 like some very very Technical FX Players think !

Now you understand why it is FTP. Look at that Video again. We are at the TOP of the P in FTP.

We Get In as they hold on thinking the charts repeat.

Now there is also a good buy in EUR/USD as it comes from 153.50 UP to 156.00 and while that happens USD/JPY should go to 106.00

Now To Risk Management and Money Management !!!

The G8 would be a Risk Management or better stated Event Management !!!

Money Management or Risk Management is actually the Same.

I am Long 5 Positions of EUR/USD at around 153.50 and Short 5 Positions of USD/JPY around 108.15

I also held some older positions of USD/JPY I did not use Stops on and am trading around until it revisits 107.25 or so.

What I do is trade in blocks or units of 100K to scale in my positions.

I opened a Demo Account with FX Solutions and I have been trading it since June 9, 2008 with $100,000 US in Demo Capital and I have NO LOSSES and about $3000 US in closed in profits and I have 15 open positions now of USD/JPY and EUR/USD

I will be posting each day a actual report of the trades.

I hope to earn 1% a day or at least 20% to 30% profit each month.

If you want to open a Demo account, I will try to help you earn 10% net a month to build up your confidence until you are ready to trade real funds with good confidence in your results.

If I left out anything or you have more questions just ask away. It has been a long day since 5:30 AM today and I am ready for bed soon.

I hope I have even more energy when I turn 65 on December 31, 2008

Good Night and have a Great Weekend !!!


Bruce
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  • #195
  • Jun 13, 2008 7:25pm Jun 13, 2008 7:25pm
Quoting Money-RX
Bruce - what do you expect for the dollar next week after the G7 meetingw?
I need to do my research on Sunday. Read all the reports. Get to see different opinions. Read what the G8 said and all the rest of the clues you need to figure out their next Chess Moves !!!

Good Night and see you on Sunday !!!


Bruce
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  • #196
  • Jun 13, 2008 7:35pm Jun 13, 2008 7:35pm
Good Night !!!

Yen Outlook
20:30 GMT June 13th, Friday USD/JPY opened New York around 108.35 just shy of the early morning 108.39 high, as the EUR/USD sell off drove the buck higher against all majors. The session was split between the morning sell off, and the afternoon rally. An option barrier defence (108.50) started the rout. Strangely USD/JPY sold off even as US equity markets jumped 1-1.5% after US CPI data at 0.2% for the core relieved fears, and falling oil prices. The low was 107.88 after Europe finished squaring, then the buck rallied back as equities rebounded from a disappointing U Mich (56.7) low. Spot closed around 108.20.
Good demand for AUD/JPY helped offset the USD/JPY sell off, sopping up excess USD on the way down, and adding to it on the way back up. Last night's no change decision from the BOJ as well as soft stats (April industrial output fell -0.2% m-on-m, May consumer sentiment index lower than expected at 33.9) plus RBA Gov Steven's hawkish comments helped drive AUD/JPY up 30pts to 101.55 in NY. The Fin Min noted they had "informal discussions" with the US Treasury on the eve of the G8 in Osaka; and that high commodities prices is the head of the agenda. PCW
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  • #197
  • Edited 7:42pm Jun 13, 2008 7:39pm | Edited 7:42pm
http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/ed...2008/0613.html

Snippet:

The ECB Calls Bernanke’s Bluff

by Gary Dorsch, SirChartsAlot, Inc. | June 13, 2008

Print
A new member of the British Parliament once solicited the advice of Benjamin Disraeli, the nineteenth century British prime minister, on whether he should speak up on a controversial issue. “Do you have anything to say that has not already been said?” Disraeli asked him. “No,” the man conceded. “I just want the people whom I represent, and the members of Parliament to know that I participated in the debate.”
Disraeli replied, “Then it’s better to remain silent and have people say, I wonder what he’s thinking, rather than to speak up, and have people say, I wonder why he spoke.” On June 3rd, the super-dovish Fed chief Benjamin Bernanke, couldn’t remain silent any longer, and shocked the global money markets, when he spoke out for the first time, about the need for the Fed to defend the US dollar in the foreign exchange market, before an international television audience.
“The Fed is working with the Treasury to carefully monitor developments in foreign exchange markets,” Bernanke warned. “We are attentive to the changes in the value of the dollar and inflation expectations. The Fed’s commitment to price stability is a key factor, insuring that the dollar remains a strong and stable currency. The possibility that commodity prices will continue to rise, and lift inflation expectations are significant risks, that might ultimately become self-confirming,” he said.
A week later, currency traders were left wondering if Bernanke had undergone a brain transplant, and re-programmed as a Bundesbank hawk, when he downplayed the biggest monthly surge in the US jobless rate in 22-years. “The risk that the US economy has entered into a substantial downturn appears to have diminished. The FOMC will strongly resist an erosion of longer-term inflation expectations. There are significant upside risks for inflation through commodities,” Bernanke declared.
Instinctively, foreign currency traders rushed to cover over-extended short positions in the dollar, as yields on the US Treasury’s 2-year note, jumped by a startling half-percent in just two-days, to 2.90%, discounting the likelihood of 75-basis points in Fed rate hikes by year’s end. Something must have changed, to cause “Helicopter” Ben to suddenly talk about switching gears, from inflating the US money supply at a 17% annualized rate, its fastest in history, to a more prudent course of defending the purchasing power of the dollar.


Bruce

I'm Gone ... Yawn !!!
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  • #198
  • Jun 13, 2008 7:46pm Jun 13, 2008 7:46pm
Candlestick Forecast for 14 June 2008


1. USDCHF
At the time of posting

YESTERDAY
- Bullish Harami Line Confirmation: Buy Signal/breakout = Buy, move stop to the previous candle’s low, i.e. 1.03 (If current signal agrees with longer term cycles, then give this signal more weight )

2 DAYS AGO
-- Bullish Harami Line: WAIT!

3 DAYS AGO
--- Bearish Harami Line: Look for Reversal = Indecision in market. Possible Reversal.

4 DAYS AGO
---- Trusting Line Confirmation: Buy Signal
--- Bullish Trending Candle Body Reversal: Buy Signal


2. USDJPY
At the time of posting

YESTERDAY
- Engulfing Bullish Line Confirmation: Market is overbought = Maintain long position, move stop under 107.63 the current candle’s low
- Stochastic Oscillator is Overbought

2 DAYS AGO
- Last Engulfing Candle: Possible top

3 DAYS AGO
-- Bearish Harami Line: Look for Reversal = Indecision in market. Possible Reversal.

3 DAYS AGO
---- Engulfing Bullish Line Confirmation: Bullish & Overbought
---- Bullish Trending Candle takes over: Buy Signal


3. EURUSD
At the time of posting

YESTERDAY -
- Bearish Trending Candle takes over: Bearish Continuation

2 DAYS AGO
-- Bearish Trending Candle takes over
-- Engulfing Bearish Line: Bearish

3 DAYS AGO
--- Piercing Line: Possible Reversal

4 Days AGO
---- Dark Cloud Cover Confirmation: Sell Signal


4. GBPUSD
At the time of posting

YESTERDAY
- White Doji
- Harami Black Cross: Wait for next signal, look for reversal = It may be wise to wait for next signal before entering the market. Then with confirmation you may enter the market on the long side.

2 DAYS AGO
-- Piercing line: possible reversal

3 DAYS AGO
--- Piercing line: possible reversal

4 DAYS AGO
---- Black Inside Out Down: Sell Signal



5. GBPJPY
At the time of posting

YESTERDAY
- Engulfing Bullish Line Confirmation: Market Overbought = move stop to current candle’s low at 209.69
- Stochastic Oscillator: Market Overbought
- Bullish Trending Candle takes over: Bullish continuation

2 DAYS AGO
-- White Spinning Top: no direction/neutral
-- Engulfing Bullish Confirmation: Bullish & Overbought

3 DAYS AGO
--- Double Doji Lines: possible reversal
--- Last Engulfing Bullish: possible Top
---Stochastic Oscillator: Overbought

4 DAYS AGO
---- Black Doji Star Reversal: possible top
---- Incomplete Dark Cloud Cover: Sell on confirmation
  • #199
  • Jun 13, 2008 8:10pm Jun 13, 2008 8:10pm
Testing its support at 1.9418. If holds, may be seeing the pair rebounds up 1.95 and may even goes back to 1.96 [ Above 1.9525 look for further upside with 1.96 & 1.967 as targets.]

Others say:
Strategy:[email protected] Deeper setbacks seen down towards 1.9337 (January 22 low). Daily momentum remains negative, highlighting the overall bearish bias. We have booked profits on our short trade after trailing stop hit. The near-term scope is for losses to the 30-day lower bollinger-band (now at 1.9390). There are multiple layers of solid resistance above.
  • #200
  • Jun 14, 2008 1:20am Jun 14, 2008 1:20am
Dear Sir, I am new to this forex bussiness. Is it possible to trade on Saturday and Sunday? Because in your thread you give a prediction for 14 June whereas today is a holiday (Saturday) and I believe that NY trade time has already closed. Tq
Oh Lord! Give me more PIPs
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