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If I knew then what I know now

  • #21
  • Jul 22, 2007 9:19am Jul 22, 2007 9:19am
Quoting hanover
Clockwork71 - excellent post - my responses, for whatever they're worth, in blue typeface.



Perfectionism drives us down a path toward the futile quest for the "holy grail", and has arguably been my personal biggest enemy to date. I've come to believe that it's robust charting concepts (see above) that best stand the test of time.

And yes, compounding via fixed fractional position sizing, plus a consistent (in principle, but flexible in the smaller detail) method/strategy, will make us rich.

I don't wish to sound conceited, but it feels like I'm getting very close to experiencing my own "aha moment" (as coined by Dirk du Toit, in his book Bird Watching in Lion Country). I suspect that you are currently at a similar point.

Anyway, just my 2p, for whatever its worth.

David
David,

I find it very interesting that you and one or two other traders have commented recently in a positive way regarding the trading style of Dirk du Toit. Even more interesting is that Jacko and Trader888 style of trading is very similar to what D d T promotes. There was a time on this forum where his trading methods were discounted even ridiculed by several traders. I do not recall who they were, I wonder if they are still around? I certainly have had positive results.

Lou
  • #22
  • Jul 22, 2007 9:39am Jul 22, 2007 9:39am
Quoting billflet
Great post. I remember reading some of your earlier posts. You seemed very discouraged then. Glad to see you hung in there and it's starting to come together for you. All the best!

Yes, in fact it really wasn't that long ago. I had gotten to a point where I just didn't seem able to come out ahead. I was getting better, as in smaller losses...but couldn't quite make it over the hump.

Then I had my first "AH-HA" moment.

It had nothing to do with a system, time frame, or any such thing.

It had to do with realizing that the most expensive thing about Forex isn't money, it's mental capitol. (At least that's true at this point for me in the game.)

I came to the conclusion that I had put far too much effort into this to give up. As a general rule, somewhere I believe that if you put enough effort into something, you will find a way. I think that deep rooted belief kicked in.

I also believe that you have to be flexible in your approach to any challenge. That belief kicked in as well.

Started playing smaller lots, larger time frames, got to go outside away from this, started seeing better results.
  • #23
  • Jul 22, 2007 9:43am Jul 22, 2007 9:43am
Quoting jacko
One Trillion US Dollars in Current Account Deficit....

And it continues to grow......every month...

.
I am starting to think it's because Jacko won't stop going long the damn Eur/Usd pair.

Thank you for your input by the way Jacko....it actually was your thread that got me to think about "the big picture", as in....."Why bother shorting the EUR/USD?"

I have also used your anti-hedging strategy with good success, although my point might be at 28, 43, etc, as apposed to 50. But it does work.

I encourage all of you to read his posts, as there is some really good stuff in it.

My favorite indicator he uses is betting on a continuation of a multi-year trend. Or, as some would call it, common sense.
  • #24
  • Jul 22, 2007 3:19pm Jul 22, 2007 3:19pm
Hi Clockwork71,
I must say ur start post is great.After blowing up my first micro account and struggled to survive the next, I found out that its not just my methodology(though not perfect yet)but my MM...another way of saying my greed.but I've learnt that now and posts like yours reinforce the belief.It is the only weapon against entry too early or entry too late(wc is the area am working on right now).
Success to you in your trading.
  • #25
  • Jul 22, 2007 11:30pm Jul 22, 2007 11:30pm
great thanks
  • #26
  • Jul 22, 2007 11:57pm Jul 22, 2007 11:57pm
Of all the posts I have read on this website, I must say this one has made the most real sense to a newbie like me. I have been trading for only 3 months doing it about 14 hours night and day. I believe my chart time will pay off, and I am living for lifestyle and maybe being able to pass on real advice as has been posted here. Thank you to all who give in an honest way. I have to believe it's honest because its all we have. With all that has been said here I feel I am on the right track, derailments are coming less.
  • #27
  • Jul 23, 2007 12:45am Jul 23, 2007 12:45am
while larger time frames are mentioned here, many refuse to consider the cost of carry in making some of these decisions. Look to futures as well to help ofset this cost. Long term, Futures and spot prices will be brought back to common areas by the arbitrageurs.
Man who scratches ass should not bite fingernails
  • #28
  • Jul 23, 2007 1:08am Jul 23, 2007 1:08am
Quoting Lou
David,

I find it very interesting that you and one or two other traders have commented recently in a positive way regarding the trading style of Dirk du Toit. Even more interesting is that Jacko and Trader888 style of trading is very similar to what D d T promotes. There was a time on this forum where his trading methods were discounted even ridiculed by several traders. I do not recall who they were, I wonder if they are still around? I certainly have had positive results.

Lou
Quote further...i would like to relive the boring book...micheal w. covel's Trend Following. Trendy fx market deserves a trendy book.
  • #29
  • Jul 23, 2007 1:47am Jul 23, 2007 1:47am
Quoting clockwork71
The following is a compressed version of what I have learned in the first 9 months as a trader. This will be nothing new to some people, but it is gold for newbies. (In my opinion)
I have added your post to the sticky thread "(Mind) Trader Psychology" in the Forex Beginners Q&A subforum.

Dial
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  • #30
  • Jul 23, 2007 3:31am Jul 23, 2007 3:31am
Brilliant. It's very useful information for me.
  • #31
  • Jul 23, 2007 4:33pm Jul 23, 2007 4:33pm
Quoting diallist
I have added your post to the sticky thread "(Mind) Trader Psychology" in the Forex Beginners Q&A subforum.

Dial

Wow. Thank you. It is indeed an honor, as I have learned so much from the good people here.
  • #32
  • Jun 11, 2008 12:46pm Jun 11, 2008 12:46pm
Quoting clockwork71
The following is a compressed version of what I have learned in the first 9 months as a trader. This will be nothing new to some people, but it is gold for newbies. (In my opinion)

1) Money Management is everything. It allows you to be wrong. It allows you to survive getting in too late, or too early.

2) Smaller time frames are dangerous. 4 hour charts and above are like looking down from a skyscraper. I think of it this way: As I am on the ground, (same as 5 min. chart) I can only focus on the immediate block or two. As I am 100 floors up, (same as 4 hr or above) I can see the whole picture. What was happening on that street isn't significant in the big picture.

If you ever doubt what I just said, just look at the 4 hour chart. Look at the daily chart. Nice and smooth (99%) of the time. Longer time frame trends don't change every time the wind blows. On the other hand, the 5 min chart is chaos in comparison.

Smaller time frames are great for entries. But otherwise they cause heartburn.

With proper Money management, any time frame is manageable. The fact is, we are here to make money, and have some free time. It IS OK to play at 10 cents a pip if you have to. Don't fear a 40 pip loss, as long as you aren't risking more than 2% of your account, 40 is just a number.

A 7 pip loss at $10 a pip is another thing entirely. (Assuming you are new, and account is small.) And 7 pips doesn't mean you were wrong, and in fact, 7 pips doesn't mean anything.

3) Trading is cheaper on longer time frames. While I go long on a 4 hour chart, you may go long 3 or 4 times. Even on a 2 pip spread, you still have thrown away 6 pips. At the same time, I have gained more pips than you, and only payed 2 pips for it. (I assume that you have to get out and miss a FEW pips here and there to make those trades.)

And more importantly, I also can go have a life. You are glued to the screen in a 5 or 15 min. time frame.

4) Another plus to longer time frames, I am not here to screw up a trade. My favorite trade involved me buying EUR/USD, setting stops, going to the bar and drinking for a few hours with friends. I came home to a winner. THAT is why we started doing this. Don't ever forget that. FREEDOM IS WORTH MORE THAN TRADING.

5) This forum has a lot of wisdom in it. LISTEN to the regulars. It is ok to test strategies, but the real gold here is in the basics, money management, psychology, etc. Merlin, Jacko, and so many others are doing well. I however, don't see the same thing on the same chart. My system will ultimately do better for me than theirs, and vice versa.

6) It is ok to have a loser.

7) Psychology is about 80% of this game. When you are demo trading, it is so much easier to see different levels. That in itself is proof. If you are nervous, then you are playing with "scared money", and that money gets hurt more often than not. Scared money cannot see the forest through the trees. Scared money jumps out at -10 pips.

8) Only a few things actually are reliable. Moving averages are indicators of trend. But not everyone is using the 15, 20, or even the 600. Trend lines however, are obvious, and everyone has them drawn on their charts.

9) Listen and trust yourself on decisions. You are the only one who has something to lose on your trades. Listening to others can be dangerous, as they see things differently than you do. (This refers to decision on taking a trade.)

10) If you are still reading various forums and looking for the "Holy Grail", even after reading it doesn't exist.... you are not ready to advance your trading to the next level.

11) Learning your way in this game takes time. If you are here to get rich quick, you are going to give all of your money away. $250 accounts don't turn into millions at the end of the year.

12) Far too many new traders will never listen to any of these points. About 95%. Strange really, as that is roughly the same amount of traders that will fail in the end.
It was as if the author of this thread diagnosed me and healed me of my greatest hinderances in making profit in Forex trading. Despite the fact that I have been reading a lot on money management, using longer timeframes, trading psychology, etc, I still commit the same mistakes and blow up my account. I will advise every newbie that read this to print it out, hang it on a wall and read it out every morning before opening their charts as I have done the same.Kudos to the writer. Thank!
  • #33
  • Jun 11, 2008 5:00pm Jun 11, 2008 5:00pm
if i knew then what i know now ....


1. I'd have stayed in sales management. No amount of money was worth the shit I had to endure to be any good in this game. Money can't pay for the heartache, 18 hour days and obsessional tendencies that this business brings with it. add to this the hatred that other traders have for you if you actually make money whilst they dont. Like it's your fault!

2. I'd never have posted any wonderful 'advice' to newbies. A year on from your enlightened posts you realise you were still a newbie when you wrote it and that it was quite naive. so you write another. A year on you realise you were still a newbie and that it was quite naive - so you write another, A year on you realise you were still a newbie and that it was quite naive ...... repeat for 6 years (at last count)

3. I'd never have put anything more than a moving average and tracking of support / resistance on my chart. the rest is just window dressing and crap. (including trendlines)

4. I'd never have made this my sole source of income. Going full time professional with no backup income at all increases the pressure - takes about a year to get back to how you was when you were part time. Keep making money another way, Not just for the money, for the social side also.

5. Id Never tell anyone else their approach is wrong. You dont know shit, even now, you just think you do and even if they are wrong telling them they are just makes em dig their heels in more and fall out with you.

6. Id have never written silly lists of rules, reasons to do something, etc etc . it's pointless So i'd best stop now
https://linktr.ee/Soultrader
  • #34
  • Jun 12, 2008 12:11am Jun 12, 2008 12:11am
A year later... anything to add clockwork?

max
Gravity goes both ways in forex...
  • #35
  • Jun 12, 2008 11:11am Jun 12, 2008 11:11am
Quoting max pips
A year later... anything to add clockwork?

max

Truthfully, I would say Soultrader summed it up pretty well!

Except, thankfully, I was smart enough not to make this my sole source of income.

In fact, to be honest....a year later, I care about Forex even less. It's not worth getting upset over to be honest.

There are more important things. So I would say that while my trading hasn't changed much - the reasoning might have. I have more important thing to do than watch 15 minute charts.....it's not some great revelation or anything, just deciding to be more interesting than a Forex trader.
  • #36
  • Mar 19, 2010 8:08pm Mar 19, 2010 8:08pm
Quoting soultrader
if i knew then what i know now ....


1. I'd have stayed in sales management....
  • #37
  • Mar 20, 2010 1:33am Mar 20, 2010 1:33am
Quoting soultrader
if i knew then what i know now ....
1. I'd have stayed in sales management....
Soultrader must have left us.
  • #38
  • Mar 20, 2010 2:08am Mar 20, 2010 2:08am
Many years ago i posted a thread that predicted the weeks movements on the eur/usd, i predicted price movement, direction and times. with the start and finish targets for each day, The prediction was 100% accurate.

years later i discovered that whilst this is a usefull skill, it was of little or no use.

I can only offer one piece of advice :-

Last week i did 26 trades, all of these were successfull trades, all of these made money.

I have a trading plan, i do not deviate from this, because this always works.

I enter the market at the same point every single time, the chart pattern and formations are always the same.

I always go with the trend

I exit at excactly the same point, normally the trade carrys go on and on, but i exit and follow my trading plan to the letter.

If i do the same thing over and over again, it will work over and over again. When at work one day the chaps computer opposite me kept on beeping, I said to him that if he presses a button, and the computer beeps, then you need to try something else, because if you just keep pressing the same button time after time, then guess what, the computer is going to do!!!

so i do the same thing everytime i trade.

I do not believe anyone can be taught how to trade.

Now a little something for you to ponder.

The banks, larger institutions and investors make a lot of money from forex trading. They however would never enter the market without knowing that they will make money.

One year Ford made more money from hedging currencies than from selling cars.

33 trades can take you from nothing to 1 million so why use $5k to open an account when the same thing can be achieved wih $25, if you cannot make money from $25 then you cannot make money from $5k

Your demo account must have a 100% trading record before going live

Indicators are just that - Indicators
  • #39
  • Mar 20, 2010 6:01am Mar 20, 2010 6:01am
Quoting capitalx
Soultrader must have left us.
Last I heard he'd blown up......again!
  • #40
  • Mar 20, 2010 7:24am Mar 20, 2010 7:24am
People kill me about not being "glued" to a screen all day. I am not ashamed to to say that I am glued to a screen during the day because trading fascinates me. I actually enjoy watching price action like other folks like studying a football game or some other sport. If you don't like watching charts, it probably means that you have an inherent dislike for trading or that you are in it solely for the money. When people like that start losing, they disappear very quickly because they do not have a love for trading. The only time when I don't watch the screens is when I know I have no business making a trading decision. Also, I have only been trading FOREX for three years which means you need an intense amount of screen time to pick up the nuances of the market. As you mature in trading you won't need as much screen time for sole purpose of learning. That screen time will be replaced with just watching for the love of trading. I think it is very smart to trade in higher timeframes......personally I think a trader should master all timeframes.
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