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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #3,001
  • Jun 12, 2008 6:27am Jun 12, 2008 6:27am
I liked the movie "Syriana".
  • #3,002
  • Jun 12, 2008 7:57am Jun 12, 2008 7:57am
Quoting fti
Hi Zoran,

I had one of those too, recently.So I guess you want to know as you may have been there too, huh.

I then would go back to the charts to check if the impulse is "contained" within the scope of the trend. Normally it would have killed the short chart trend and indicated reversal. It would be good to see if this was so , in the hourly charts.

Then I scan through the other short charts up to the hourly to find the point where the impulse is not reversal to continue a level up rescue, if it exist.

Otherwise, if the hourly chart is impacted the next rescue is 1 level up from the last cut loss size and RESCUE IS IN THE DIRECTION OF THE IMPULSE , this means that the open positions are reversed, as the bleeding stops and built into position as the volatility wanes, normally in such instances, the retraces would hardly be 30 % normally 10%. So the reversal is executed in stages swiftly as the bleeding slows and as soon as the next wave is "felt", the rescue "last+1 level up" is pumped into the market to rescue.
hi, fti: Very nice. I found out a lot of problems with rescue operation. I rather consider it as position re-entry. I used to save a position with -50 pips by making many 20 pips profit rescue. The problems are: 1. Some times, the pullback is weak and the space is so narrow that it is very hard to make 20 pips out. 2. To make rescue successful out of profit target less than 20 pips, I have to increase the rescue size agrresively. 3. If the rescue positions stuck, there would be serious problem. Take loss, but it is painful and agains the rescue (no loss, no take-profit habbit) MO. Then more rescue positions trapped. 4. Due to lot of resue operations where you will take profit around 20 pips (if not so, when the market renew the impulse, the rescue troops will be stuck or rescue profit gone). Due to this, I have a bad habbit. The rescue(re-entry) positions would have given me 200 pips profit, but I got out so fast that I made only 20~50 for fear of rescue position trapped. Now, if any scout has a book loss less than 50 pips, I will never think about to rescue. If your scout is 0.2 mini lot for a 1000USD account, -50 pips equals -1% of loss. Can you tell us what you do to attack. Under what condition and how you did it? Regards. David
  • #3,003
  • Jun 12, 2008 4:56pm Jun 12, 2008 4:56pm
Quoting fti
Hi Zoran,

Otherwise, if the hourly chart is impacted the next rescue is 1 level up from the last cut loss size and RESCUE IS IN THE DIRECTION OF THE IMPULSE , this means that the open positions are reversed, as the bleeding stops and built into position as the volatility wanes, normally in such instances, the retraces would hardly be 30 % normally 10%. So the reversal is executed in stages swiftly as the bleeding slows and as soon as the next wave is "felt", the rescue "last+1 level up" is pumped into the market to rescue.

regards
Thanks fti, what you have explained seemed like the natural course I should take but I was hesitant as explained in this post http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...35#post2046735
It is now clear, thank you very much.
  • #3,004
  • Jun 12, 2008 5:36pm Jun 12, 2008 5:36pm
Quoting fti
Hi,
for you.

川_の_流_れ_の_よ_う_に

Like the flow of the River

Without knowing it I have been walking, along a long and narrow path.
Looking over my shoulder toward my home village far away, and the road, rough and winding,
I find myself to have been leading a life, without even a map for guidance.
Ah, like the flow of the river, gently, time, little by little, goes by;
Ah, like the flow of the river, uninterruptedly, the sky is now dyed rosy-pink by the dusk.

To live is to make a journey, always on the move,
with a lovable companion close by, searching for the dream world.
Even though I'm now forced to walk down a muddy road in the rain
I believe I'll be blessed with glorious weather again one of these days.
Ah, like the flow of the river, peacefully, I'd like to resign myself to Heaven;
Ah, like the flow of the river, the time of the year is also moving,
now on the tiptoe of expectation, toward the snow-thawing season.

Ah, like the flow of the river, peacefully, I'd like to resign myself to Heaven;
Ah, like the flow of the river, as long as I live, I'd like to feel the murmuring of the blue stream.

regards
Thanks FTI for the words as beautiful as the music.

Every time the word spiral comes up I am confused "next spiral within the spiral" is it the waves of elliot and going to smaller time frame ....

Regards
  • #3,005
  • Jun 12, 2008 9:50pm Jun 12, 2008 9:50pm
Quoting ksl
Thanks FTI for the words as beautiful as the music.

Every time the word spiral comes up I am confused "next spiral within the spiral" is it the waves of elliot and going to smaller time frame ....

Regards
Zorans post 2053 will help

P.S. People have to read the thread thoroughly to actually get a handle on this MO or you risk spiralling into ruin.
  • #3,006
  • Jun 13, 2008 8:16am Jun 13, 2008 8:16am
Quoting fti
Hi Zoran,

I had one of those too, recently.So I guess you want to know as you may have been there too, huh.

OK, Although I think it is unwise to make a carbon copy of me, I 'll give you a little sketch for your education.

Yes, it is possible to be caught in a sudden impulse against our open positions sometimes.
If that was at scout levels then the response is easy. You figure it out yourself. Its already given in the thread.

If it was when we are at rescue mode or attack mode, then a little discomfort is likely, this is the MO. When a counter impulse wave hits, the move are very swift, sharp and directional, normally against our position.

If such was in our position I call it windfall profit and I initiate profitaking procedures to regroup for a strong skew attack later. .

If such was to my detrement, I call it a @#$% position and I take out the last attack size from the market at a loss, and allow the remaining positions to "bleed".

I then would go back to the charts to check if the impulse is "contained" within the scope of the trend. Normally it would have killed the short chart trend and indicated reversal. It would be good to see if this was so , in the hourly charts.

Then I scan through the other short charts up to the hourly to find the point where the impulse is not reversal to continue a level up rescue, if it exist.

Otherwise, if the hourly chart is impacted the next rescue is 1 level up from the last cut loss size and RESCUE IS IN THE DIRECTION OF THE IMPULSE , this means that the open positions are reversed, as the bleeding stops and built into position as the volatility wanes, normally in such instances, the retraces would hardly be 30 % normally 10%. So the reversal is executed in stages swiftly as the bleeding slows and as soon as the next wave is "felt", the rescue "last+1 level up" is pumped into the market to rescue.

Please be aware that this protocol could expose your book up to 30% in the process. therefore do not overstay the rescue. Bring it back to below 10% as soon as the impulse wave slows off , in volitility. Although, the impulse will continue in lesser volitility, it is unwise to carry high exposures, cut back to a smaller spiral , that you may have possibility to mount another attack, if and when it comes, without spiralling the book to oblivion. This is risk management and it is used to supress the "scorpion" ie greed.

The increased risk is necessary to turn and recover, but NEVER find excuses to stay at the increased risk level. If you do your next stage, exposes full book. AND if you are wrong, you shall become rogue trader.

This is no recommended for newbies and those who have not created for themselves, a foreign capital buffer. For them "bite the bullet , and take the pain."


regards
awesome !
To Live is the rarest thing in the world , Most people exist , that is all
  • #3,007
  • Edited Jun 14, 2008 4:12am Jun 13, 2008 8:41am | Edited Jun 14, 2008 4:12am
Quoting fti

Otherwise, if the hourly chart is impacted the next rescue is 1 level up from the last cut loss size and RESCUE IS IN THE DIRECTION OF THE IMPULSE , this means that the open positions are reversed, as the bleeding stops and built into position as the volatility wanes, normally in such instances, the retraces would hardly be 30 % normally 10%. So the reversal is executed in stages swiftly as the bleeding slows and as soon as the next wave is "felt", the rescue "last+1 level up" is pumped into the market to rescue.

Please be aware that this protocol could expose your book up to 30% in the process. therefore do not overstay the rescue. Bring it back to below 10% as soon as the impulse wave slows off , in volitility. Although, the impulse will continue in lesser volitility, it is unwise to carry high exposures, cut back to a smaller spiral , that you may have possibility to mount another attack, if and when it comes, without spiralling the book to oblivion. This is risk management and it is used to supress the "scorpion" ie greed.

The increased risk is necessary to turn and recover, but NEVER find excuses to stay at the increased risk level. If you do your next stage, exposes full book. AND if you are wrong, you shall become rogue trader.

This is no recommended for newbies and those who have not created for themselves, a foreign capital buffer. For them "bite the bullet , and take the pain."


regards
Thank you, FTI
Finally I got your answer about Stop&Reverse
It confirmed my opinion.
Thanks again for sharing your wisdom.

Would you please answer about quants - those well payed guys who supposed to support traders in banks. Do they really make anything supernatural to predict market or to automatize trading?
Recently I read scientific article about probability of success in predicting time series. So probability for incremental change is 75% (As far as I understood , English is not native for me, and I read it really not thoroughly)
Just in case if anybody wants to read it I attached it.
Attached File(s)
File Type: zip ProbabilityofSuccess.zip   162 KB | 1,145 downloads
it's o'k to win ...
  • #3,008
  • Jun 13, 2008 10:50pm Jun 13, 2008 10:50pm
Zen.what kind of file extention you attached?
  • #3,009
  • Jun 14, 2008 4:13am Jun 14, 2008 4:13am
Quoting amenlo9
Zen.what kind of file extention you attached?
it is zip
sorry i did not notice that name was too long
it's o'k to win ...
  • #3,010
  • Jun 14, 2008 5:57pm Jun 14, 2008 5:57pm
hi FTI
I have read this thread with great pleasure ,
because it is really something entirely different from " hey I have a system , follow me " threads .
What you explain is at the very basis of trading , being there at the fore front of action , many other will advocate TA , Because it sometimes work,
but in the now what works?
You reallly give a real workout of market as it happens , in the past I was lead to believe by some system sellers that its easy to make money following their system , Ha , why do they sell the system thats so profitable ?
( because they make more money selling systems than trading
I am still just thinking of entering this market , I only trade on demo ,
but thanks to you fti I have seen some light , especially this quote "

The trick is to hold very steadfast to the position allowing the snowball build on you,
the maxim is to be able to take the punches first,
once the rubber band swings back, whack them like theres no tomorrow,
within your capacity and keep taking profits along the way untill the frenzy slows off
then square down for the next attack.
Important thing is to know your limits, if you have been snooked out of step,
once you you get the chance bail out, log stock and barrel.
Try not to turn, if you do, you may become a pig."


Thank you a lot for enlightment fti ,
I salute You !
  • #3,011
  • Jun 14, 2008 6:12pm Jun 14, 2008 6:12pm
recently when there was a bad news for aus , euro started to sink along with aus , it looked like it was so connected with australian weakness ,
what do you think about it , why it happened ? Is euro so connected with aus ? or was it some other factor?
strenght of usd?

regards

czango
  • #3,012
  • Jun 14, 2008 6:44pm Jun 14, 2008 6:44pm
Quoting czango
recently when there was a bad news for aus , euro started to sink along with aus , it looked like it was so connected with australian weakness ,
what do you think about it , why it happened ? Is euro so connected with aus ? or was it some other factor?
strenght of usd?

regards

czango
I don't think there is any relation as you said.. it's just coz of dollar strength against aus thus eur sank..
  • #3,013
  • Jun 16, 2008 9:37pm Jun 16, 2008 9:37pm
It is very quite in here these days.
Here is a clip I am sure all will enjoy.
http://www.simpletruths.com/nws/arc/08/080610-FJOY.htm
  • #3,014
  • Jun 17, 2008 3:27am Jun 17, 2008 3:27am
Quoting czango
recently when there was a bad news for aus , euro started to sink along with aus , it looked like it was so connected with australian weakness ,
what do you think about it , why it happened ? Is euro so connected with aus ? or was it some other factor?
strenght of usd?

regards

czango

czango,

Do some research on intermarket relationships, commodities, treasuries,Dow,Nikkei,Dax, etc,etc. This might help with your understanding of what drives currencies.

Regards,

BabeFX.
  • #3,015
  • Jun 17, 2008 6:38am Jun 17, 2008 6:38am
Quoting ksl
Thanks FTI for the words as beautiful as the music.

Every time the word spiral comes up I am confused "next spiral within the spiral" is it the waves of elliot and going to smaller time frame ....

Regards
ksl, you really should read this thread carefully as this has been discussed in detail.

There is more than one way to skin a cat but when referring to the next spiral, it means the next sequence level. For me it would be something like

1st level: 1,1,2 (where 1 is the value of the scout and 1+1+2=4)
2nd level: 4,4,8 (4+4+8=16 beginning of next level)
3rd level: 16, 16, 32

At this point in time I generally stick with the first level.
  • #3,016
  • Jun 17, 2008 7:03am Jun 17, 2008 7:03am
Quoting Zoran
ksl, you really should read this thread carefully as this has been discussed in detail.

There is more than one way to skin a cat but when referring to the next spiral, it means the next sequence level. For me it would be something like

1st level: 1,1,2 (where 1 is the value of the scout and 1+1+2=4)
2nd level: 4,4,8 (4+4+8=16 beginning of next level)
3rd level: 16, 16, 32

At this point in time I generally stick with the first level.
Thanks Zoran,
Its just that I am unable to imagin the shape of the spiral on the price chart.( As per your post 2053 )
Obviously I need to dwell on this longer. ( are all the levels on the same time frame)
  • #3,017
  • Jun 17, 2008 9:28am Jun 17, 2008 9:28am
Quoting ksl
Thanks Zoran,
Its just that I am unable to imagin the shape of the spiral on the price chart.( As per your post 2053 )
Obviously I need to dwell on this longer. ( are all the levels on the same time frame)
ksl, it is not applied to price and time but to Money Management. It is the sizing of the entry that we spiral out and in.

So you enter with 1 scout (say 1 mini lot), then add another one and then add 2, so your entry is 4 mini lots (1,1,2=4) as an example. It is all explained in the thread and attempting to take a short cut will not work. If you want to understand fti's system, reading the thread carefully along with the other material posted is essential.
  • #3,018
  • Jun 17, 2008 10:23am Jun 17, 2008 10:23am
I think maybe what i will post now can be useful. I would really like to thank once more time to FTI, because his thoughts and PMs which he sent me, helped me to survive in our world and to get my dreams alive. As i hate school i am one of the worst in the class and my parents are really angry, especially my father who wants everything perfect. But ironically, i phoned today to a company as my summer holidays started and there is a very high possibility i will get a 10 euro per hour paid job. That is in Slovenia for a student one of the best paid jobs because others work for around 4 euro. I hope I will work as an assistant of a financial adviser and tomorrow i have a meeting. This kind of win really help me, because everybody is talking i am not as good to have a so good salary, that i am living in illusions, then also they think i am stupid because i spent so much time on finance and so on. I have also luck, because my best friend and also schoolmate is a very successful trader (he gained last year 10 000%) so he put me in financial world. I want to stress, we can achieve all our dreams only if we have will and faith in it and really don't take care what others says(as Buffet says: just listen to them and do what you think is the best for you), because they will repeatedly talk to you, you can't achive your dreams, especially when you think otherwise as others.

regards and happy trading in this choppy markets
  • #3,019
  • Jun 17, 2008 10:30am Jun 17, 2008 10:30am
Quoting Zoran
It is the sizing of the entry that we spiral out and in.
Thanks Zoran for fixing the picture in my head.
Reading the thread again.
Thanks
  • #3,020
  • Jun 17, 2008 11:10am Jun 17, 2008 11:10am
Quoting mijamoto
I have also luck, because my best friend and also schoolmate is a very successful trader (he gained last year 10 000%) so he put me in financial world.
It's good that your friend is helping you mijamoto, but are you sure he made 10,000%? It sounds exaggerated by a couple of 0's.
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