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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #2,981
  • Jun 10, 2008 9:15pm Jun 10, 2008 9:15pm
Quoting Druss
Hi,

Can someone give page numbers for pages that outline the technical aspects of FTI strategies?

I've skimmed the first 42 pages and it's rather laborious. Hope this doesnt offend anyone.
The AOW is a whole mindset, (almost religion) and is more than just TA but here is the jist of it in post 2427
  • #2,982
  • Jun 10, 2008 9:41pm Jun 10, 2008 9:41pm
Quoting Druss
Hi,

Can someone give page numbers for pages that outline the technical aspects of FTI strategies?

I've skimmed the first 42 pages and it's rather laborious. Hope this doesnt offend anyone.
When one chooses the short cut on the path to enlightenment, he/she misses the lessons which are necessary for the journey.
  • #2,983
  • Jun 10, 2008 10:14pm Jun 10, 2008 10:14pm
Hibari Misora's "Like the flow of the river "
(Kawa no nagare no yō ni) (川の流れのように)
This was the last song released by Japanese enka singer Hibari Misora, January 11, 1989 just before her death June 24,1989. Composed by Akira Mitake, Lyrics by Yasushi Akimoto.

Inserted Video

www.youtube.com/watch?v=rHMIaA4YBk0

Tribute , three tenors
Inserted Video


Modern recording
Inserted Video


This ones too
www.youtube.com/watch?v=jyI2tX6UCKo
www.youtube.com/watch?v=wUrseEYRyIo

enjoy

regards[/quote]

WOW fti,
I am blown away by the music specially the first one I belive her last song.
I do not understand japnese but then music has its own language
  • #2,984
  • Jun 11, 2008 7:33am Jun 11, 2008 7:33am
Quoting ksl
Hibari Misora's "Like the flow of the river "
(Kawa no nagare no yō ni) (川の流れのように)
This was the last song released by Japanese enka singer Hibari Misora, January 11, 1989 just before her death June 24,1989. Composed by Akira Mitake, Lyrics by Yasushi Akimoto.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ww6OKX_PcvE
www.youtube.com/watch?v=rHMIaA4YBk0

Tribute , three tenors
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZD1o0jOvs3Q

Modern recording
http://youtube.com/watch?v=1IkLEtr6GnE

This ones too
www.youtube.com/watch?v=jyI2tX6UCKo
www.youtube.com/watch?v=wUrseEYRyIo

enjoy

regards

WOW fti,
I am blown away by the music specially the first one I belive her last song.
I do not understand japnese but then music has its own language
Hi,
for you.

川_の_流_れ_の_よ_う_に

Like the flow of the River

Without knowing it I have been walking, along a long and narrow path.
Looking over my shoulder toward my home village far away, and the road, rough and winding,
I find myself to have been leading a life, without even a map for guidance.
Ah, like the flow of the river, gently, time, little by little, goes by;
Ah, like the flow of the river, uninterruptedly, the sky is now dyed rosy-pink by the dusk.

To live is to make a journey, always on the move,
with a lovable companion close by, searching for the dream world.
Even though I'm now forced to walk down a muddy road in the rain
I believe I'll be blessed with glorious weather again one of these days.
Ah, like the flow of the river, peacefully, I'd like to resign myself to Heaven;
Ah, like the flow of the river, the time of the year is also moving,
now on the tiptoe of expectation, toward the snow-thawing season.

Ah, like the flow of the river, peacefully, I'd like to resign myself to Heaven;
Ah, like the flow of the river, as long as I live, I'd like to feel the murmuring of the blue stream.

regards
  • #2,985
  • Jun 11, 2008 8:50am Jun 11, 2008 8:50am
Quoting Zoran
Thanks fti, but you know I don't earn my wings until you read that book! The one full of gargoyles and lots of scary things!

Maybe I just need to keep praying.
Thanks Zoran,
Praying too.
LOL
  • #2,986
  • Jun 11, 2008 8:54am Jun 11, 2008 8:54am
Quoting luSan
Zoran, greetings,

I am still learning...it is tough transitions...specially when US news are all over during the trading day...I am taking notes and modifying my style...it is getting easier and easier as long as I stay away from news announcements...but then I might end up in a range...and happy!

Yes...congestions are wonderfull...they are teaching me an important lesson: when my trend is broken, I MUST get fast out of the way and reverse...Indeed, the only risk of a congestion is when we try to impose our will on PA..dilussional, madness and a loss!

As part of my transition I created my 10 trading commandments. Here I go:

You shall

  1. Never trade during major news
  2. Never have more than 3 open positions
  3. Never trade aggressively against the hour trend
  4. Never trade against the 5M trend
  5. Never stay on a broken trend
  6. Never trade with low volatility
  7. Never execute more than 2 rescue operations
  8. Never trade without a relaxed and clear mind
  9. Never trade beyond your entry signal
  10. Never trade with the hope of winning

I believe that they will evolve with time but they are the law of my land...They costed me blood and $$$. I wonder what the supreme court will say? I mean...fti!

Regards,

Hi Lusan,
This, the deep end, no more baby pool.

Looks like you're turning Moses already.
This the new testament.

As you go along you will find more and more tweaks.
Then you will revert back to basics, and it will encompass all.

Trade well, friend.
regards.
  • #2,987
  • Jun 11, 2008 9:23am Jun 11, 2008 9:23am
Quoting fti
Hi Lusan,
This, the deep end, no more baby pool.

Looks like you're turning Moses already.
This the new testament.

As you go along you will find more and more tweaks.
Then you will revert back to basics, and it will encompass all.

Trade well, friend.
regards.
Thanks...I keep twicking my commandments...I need regulation to tame my quick fingers...I noticed that any time I violate the laws...PA wacks me very hard...and it hurts...PA is a bitch of a teacher...lack of focus? whack!...Lack of attention? Whack...Greedy?whack...Afraid? Whack...too slow?Whack, whack and wahck...my but hurts.

I changed No. 9 to: "never be a pig on reversal."...which means: if the trend change, then I reverse but twice as aggresive...why? because if I am correct, then I am at the beginning of the trend...If I am wrong?...Out out out...and pause...I began practicing compliance to law #9

The market feels so different during the day versus londong open...so I am going back to school and reading, writing, and collecting your lessons...

Ah...I just finished for the morning and going away to the library...continue trading after 3:00 pm...my favorite time...-

Hey...I made 50 cents...but this is great...I practiced my current self-given lessons and whenever I was in real book trouble, I fast dance without regret...

I read that you trade with music and I want to check on "Joan Sutherland & Jane Berbie"...Maybe listening to their music, your trading skills will telepathically reachs me and help me...

Regards,
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #2,988
  • Jun 11, 2008 9:50am Jun 11, 2008 9:50am
Hi folks! I am most of the time away because i am always on trainings (taekwondo in club), cycling and soccer alone or with friends. I was last week in Brussels and Strasbourg and i liked the trip a lot, especially Luxembourg (there i want to live but only problem is they don't have alps :S). I was for many years chess player but i never reached the highest rank. I was afraid to go on the tournaments and i trained myself i wasn't in any club. I played last year in a city working league and i scored just 2 wins out of 6. Few games i was in a completely won position but i made than some blunders and unfortunately lost the game. On a youth championships i was only once 2nd in a town but i failed on a country championship. When you come on the higher level competition, really small positional mistake kills you. Than i started with playing online and i won on blitz games some IMs and GMs but also i lost a lot of games. When i started to work on forex and finance i stopped with a chess, because after a long years of work you become overwhelmed and you lose the will. Now i am thinking to start again with playing, to practise AOW concepts and now i will also have summer holidays. If you ask me more, i will share more chess experiences from tournaments if you want but now i have to go on cycle because i have a race on Sunday.

regards and happy trading in this choppy markets
  • #2,989
  • Edited 11:59am Jun 11, 2008 9:59am | Edited 11:59am
Quoting Zoran
Ahh, I have been wondering about that. Reversing but I am not certain. If my rescue point is 100 or 200 pips away, do I wait, perhaps unload a bit and rescue or do I reverse?
Hi Zoran ,

I say again,
小艇怕風浪 , 大船難轉彎

( Small Boats are afraid of wind and waves turbulence, Big Ships have difficulty to to turn.)

When you are scout mode, turning is easy ,
when you are in rescue , turning leaves too much resources behind.
Turning is an option for sudden change of impulse,
and only when in scout mode or early level rescue.

when you are in rescue or attack mode , then you are committed,
for good or bad, in sickness or health, till d do you part.
therefore turning is no-longer an option.

Note that when you decide to turn.
you have to move to the next spiral within the spiral,
therefore you move to stage 2 of the preceeding stage.
This is very cap intensive protocol.

Quoting Zoran
You see, what confuses me is that bulls make money and so do bears, but pigs get slaughtered. Is this restricted to congestion areas or can we break the rule otherwise?

Maybe fti can clarify?
When in congested band , stay with the scout ,
either in bull or bear mode never both. Never be a pig.

When in trend mode, stay with trend, if scout mode turn on wind.
If committed, first rescue then after successful rescue, try to turn on wind.
(remember that by now it should mid trend levels [probably wave 2 or 3 ]therefore skew down the risk, to accommodate attack.) . Similarly Again never be a pig.

regards


USD strength seems manipulative. Benana lip intervention is bad strategy. Hourly Saucer shape charts indicate market will. Time your strategies well.
  • #2,990
  • Jun 11, 2008 6:02pm Jun 11, 2008 6:02pm
Quoting fti
Thanks Zoran,
Praying too.
LOL
Praying that I drop it? I just started reading the Tunnel book by Gann so I'll see what I can get out of it - any advice? What about yourself, reading anything interesting these days?

About your last post, thanks for the explanation. I understand as much as staying with the trend and if a bull remain a bull - if a bear remain a bear.

Now during those times when we must bite the bullet, not so much about sailing in the wind but when we hit the unexpected hurricane, a time when our scorpion comes to visit, do we just bite the bullet and walk away? What do you normally do or recommend in those situations?
  • #2,991
  • Jun 11, 2008 9:34pm Jun 11, 2008 9:34pm
Quoting fti
USD strength seems manipulative. Benana lip intervention is bad strategy. Hourly Saucer shape charts indicate market will. Time your strategies well.
Hi FTI,
Ben will be speaking again tonight. Do you think his lip service may cause a further rally to the dollar?

jest
  • #2,992
  • Jun 11, 2008 10:12pm Jun 11, 2008 10:12pm
Quoting fti
~~
USD strength seems manipulative.
Could the same be said for oil?
Good Trading
  • #2,993
  • Jun 11, 2008 11:44pm Jun 11, 2008 11:44pm
Quoting Zoran

Now during those times when we must bite the bullet, not so much about sailing in the wind but when we hit the unexpected hurricane, a time when our scorpion comes to visit, do we just bite the bullet and walk away? What do you normally do or recommend in those situations?
Hi Zoran,

I had one of those too, recently.So I guess you want to know as you may have been there too, huh.

OK, Although I think it is unwise to make a carbon copy of me, I 'll give you a little sketch for your education.

Yes, it is possible to be caught in a sudden impulse against our open positions sometimes.
If that was at scout levels then the response is easy. You figure it out yourself. Its already given in the thread.

If it was when we are at rescue mode or attack mode, then a little discomfort is likely, this is the MO. When a counter impulse wave hits, the move are very swift, sharp and directional, normally against our position.

If such was in our position I call it windfall profit and I initiate profitaking procedures to regroup for a strong skew attack later. .

If such was to my detrement, I call it a @#$% position and I take out the last attack size from the market at a loss, and allow the remaining positions to "bleed".

I then would go back to the charts to check if the impulse is "contained" within the scope of the trend. Normally it would have killed the short chart trend and indicated reversal. It would be good to see if this was so , in the hourly charts.

Then I scan through the other short charts up to the hourly to find the point where the impulse is not reversal to continue a level up rescue, if it exist.

Otherwise, if the hourly chart is impacted the next rescue is 1 level up from the last cut loss size and RESCUE IS IN THE DIRECTION OF THE IMPULSE , this means that the open positions are reversed, as the bleeding stops and built into position as the volatility wanes, normally in such instances, the retraces would hardly be 30 % normally 10%. So the reversal is executed in stages swiftly as the bleeding slows and as soon as the next wave is "felt", the rescue "last+1 level up" is pumped into the market to rescue.

Please be aware that this protocol could expose your book up to 30% in the process. therefore do not overstay the rescue. Bring it back to below 10% as soon as the impulse wave slows off , in volitility. Although, the impulse will continue in lesser volitility, it is unwise to carry high exposures, cut back to a smaller spiral , that you may have possibility to mount another attack, if and when it comes, without spiralling the book to oblivion. This is risk management and it is used to supress the "scorpion" ie greed.

The increased risk is necessary to turn and recover, but NEVER find excuses to stay at the increased risk level. If you do your next stage, exposes full book. AND if you are wrong, you shall become rogue trader.

This is no recommended for newbies and those who have not created for themselves, a foreign capital buffer. For them "bite the bullet , and take the pain."


regards
  • #2,994
  • Jun 11, 2008 11:51pm Jun 11, 2008 11:51pm
Quoting luSan

I changed No. 9 to: "never be a pig on reversal."...which means: if the trend change, then I reverse but twice as aggresive...why? because if I am correct, then I am at the beginning of the trend...If I am wrong?...Out out out...and pause...I began practicing compliance to law #9



Regards,
This is correct, but read my response to zoran above.

regards
  • #2,995
  • Edited Jun 12, 2008 1:53am Jun 11, 2008 11:55pm | Edited Jun 12, 2008 1:53am
Quoting jest1081
Hi FTI,
Ben will be speaking again tonight. Do you think his lip service may cause a further rally to the dollar?

jest
Hi jest,
He can say anything he likes.

Same song, different tune. I don't like listening to parrots. but I'll be square , just in case.
When in bad position, damage control and less justification is best practices.

regards
  • #2,996
  • Edited 2:05am Jun 12, 2008 12:05am | Edited 2:05am
Quoting aud
Could the same be said for oil?
Hi aud,

Well what do you think OPEC had been doing all this time. But always in their favour. Unfortunately there is little representatives of the consumers in the equation.
So now that its double the 70USD benchmark, where are they?

The fault really lies in a whole junkie world, dependent on one source of fossil energy. SO whos fault is it mostly.
Go look at your energy policies. Go look at the sick buildings that are built, we call offices. Go take a look at your homes. The car has no choice but to burn fuel to move. Funny that homes and offices are in the same league. Talk about one trick ponies.

Surely the scorpion, if you ask me, that we allow ourselves to manipulate the price of oil. Its a cornered market.

"As you sow, so shall you reap."

regards

PS; on the same note, as most here are geeks.
Look, if programmers learned to code in Machine and assembly language, then programmes are super swift and effecient. But what do they teach, the next generation of programers, layers of fat, fatty languages and syntax, and next level of software, fat and slow.
So I ask you, WHY.?
Same reason, control and manipulation, the human nature.
BUT at what price?
You tell me. So whats new??

Wonder why mankind , loves to live in houses built on one support, Do you live in one?
  • #2,997
  • Jun 12, 2008 1:51am Jun 12, 2008 1:51am
Quoting fti
Hi Zoran ,

I say again,
小艇怕風浪 , 大船難轉彎

( Small Boats are afraid of wind and waves turbulence, Big Ships have difficulty to to turn.)
Nice quote... mind if i just add on a thought from another source which find it helpful and inspiring to me: I can face the waves for I trust the One who made the ocean..
  • #2,998
  • Jun 12, 2008 2:36am Jun 12, 2008 2:36am
Quoting aud
Could the same be said for oil?
aud

The Financial Times sheds light on what happened at the end of last week, when the price of oil jumped a phenomenal $16 in just 36 hours. Short-sellers desperate to cover bad bets on where oil was headed provided the catalyst, reports Javier Blas. Reacting to news that Asian countries were beginning to cut their energy subsidies, traders assumed that prices were set to drop. So they started unloading their "long" oil positions -- their bets that prices would rise -- and piling up "short" positions. By selling high and committing to buy low, they planned to make a killing. But they bet wrong -- worries about the dollar and tough talk on Iran from Israel pushed the price up, putting the short-sellers in a bind. The longer they let their bets ride, the more they stood to lose, but by giving in and covering the bets, they created even more short-term demand, pushing the price even higher.

Here is the link to the full article
http://www.salon.com/tech/htww/2008/...oil/index.html
Hope isn't a viable investment vehicle.
  • #2,999
  • Jun 12, 2008 3:58am Jun 12, 2008 3:58am
i don't burn fuel more than i have to.

i drive a prius (it does burn fuel but you can't have it all), uses 3x less than my previous volvo.

my house runs on natural gas so this is also fossil energy but it still is the cheapest you can get where I live unless you want to chop wood.

if i had plenty of spare money i would build a house with 2 wind turbines and solar roof. not to be super green but i just find it very cool to be "autonomous" & free.

thats why I like trading forex.. if only i could get past the point when it becomes worthwhile.

so $200 per barrel, bring it on. we will just have more nuclear power plants and/or engines (battleships/submarines have them, can go for 50 years in water without re-fueling). we just might have to make moon as nuclear wasteland for the radioactive garbage.

this is the most offtopic forex thread i have seen for a while, hehe.
  • #3,000
  • Jun 12, 2008 5:52am Jun 12, 2008 5:52am
Thanks for the replies guys. I was think along the lines of the perilous state of the US financial system. They can't reduce interest rates much more which would seem to leave an option of inflating their way out of trouble. I was wondering if CBs manipulate the oil market.

A bit off topic but I do not use any fuel to heat or cool the house, have an electricity bill of approx. $200- a qtr. I can walk to McDonalds, a corner store and the beach, which I do about, twice a year, twice a month and twice a week!
Good Trading
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