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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #92,501
  • Jun 11, 2008 5:26pm Jun 11, 2008 5:26pm
exactly my thoughts.

Quoting Infinity
I do not swing trade this pair for love nor money because of it's swift aggressive action. This is the main reason why I seldom look past the daily when doing gj analysis. I do agree that this pair will continue up but a retracement is due on the pair which I expect will come within the next two days. After the retracement is complete I am looking at 214.00-214.5 to be the max upside before a large fall. If price action takes it above this level, I think that could mean very much higher than 220 area. But as I said, I do not swing trade this pair because of the nature of its movement.....Soooo in the meantime, I will be taking my 100 to 200 pips each time, whichever way....long or short....

Bless
Nihil Sine Deo.
  • #92,502
  • Jun 11, 2008 5:28pm Jun 11, 2008 5:28pm
Quoting Scrat
good, so the general "feeling" is shifting towards bullish side. you know what this means, right?
General feeling, lol
And I thought I'll do a simple test to see which way the wind is about to blow, now you got me all confused again
  • #92,503
  • Jun 11, 2008 5:38pm Jun 11, 2008 5:38pm
if i buy gbp with usd, and sell gbp with yen, is same as sell usd with yen. but if i buy; gbp/usd and gbp/yen, it's same as sell usd and sell yen. so as long as yen + usd together were weaker than gbp, it could be good long term investment, so if u look at monthly chart of eu/ej, or au,aj, trend is up for both. any opinions?
  • #92,504
  • Jun 11, 2008 6:07pm Jun 11, 2008 6:07pm
Quoting Clouds
if i buy gbp with usd, and sell gbp with yen, is same as sell usd with yen. but if i buy; gbp/usd and gbp/yen, it's same as sell usd and sell yen. so as long as yen + usd together were weaker than gbp, it could be good long term investment, so if u look at monthly chart of eu/ej, or au,aj, trend is up for both. any opinions?
I think it depends on what you mean by long term and if the GBP will stay strong vs. the USD and YEN. The way things have been of late, I wouldn't try to even guess.
  • #92,505
  • Jun 11, 2008 6:13pm Jun 11, 2008 6:13pm
Quoting SuperV900
I think it depends on what you mean by long term and if the GBP will stay strong vs. the USD and YEN. The way things have been of late, I wouldn't try to even guess.

Amen to that... crazy "carry trade" is on the loose...

and he took a few dollar bills out of my wallet today...
Addicted and proud of it!
  • #92,506
  • Jun 11, 2008 6:17pm Jun 11, 2008 6:17pm
Quoting PiPsAddict
Amen to that... crazy "carry trade" is on the loose...
hi,
what is today trend for GBPUSD ?
  • #92,507
  • Jun 11, 2008 6:20pm Jun 11, 2008 6:20pm
Quoting John Lo
hi,
what is today trend for GBPUSD ?
Flat, but trying to head south...
  • #92,508
  • Jun 11, 2008 6:22pm Jun 11, 2008 6:22pm
new daily and 12hr candle and momentoms


p.s:in daily 14c is bullish(above 100 line),1c and 10c turned south but above 100 line...candle formed above 5sma channel...so seems bulls have more power than bears....with situation if in 1hr chart price close above gann and QQE5 be crossed up and price go above yesterday high i'll take a long position....also if price close below 4hr gann and QQE5 in 4hr chart be crossed down and aslo price go below yesterday low i'll take a short position.....note that yesterday candle was a inside bar


good luck all http://qsmile.com/qsimages/83.gif
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  • #92,509
  • Jun 11, 2008 6:23pm Jun 11, 2008 6:23pm
Man,

I don't have the deep pockets for swing trading GBP/JPY. I do this with other pairs but not this beast. I agree the long terms says X. However, I can only trade this one a day or two at a time. Although it may be on it's way to 210+, there are going to be 500 drops here and there that my account probably won't be able to handle. Unless of course I get in at the absolute bottom before the long trek north. If anybody knows that bottom number, I'll share my profits with you

B
  • #92,510
  • Jun 11, 2008 6:25pm Jun 11, 2008 6:25pm
based on tl analysis on the m30 chart, we have a fairly strong resistnece that has formed above currently at 210.30 area.

below we have dp which also coincides with a support tl and below that another tl at 209.40 is area.

currently i have a short signaled, but am leary of these three lower support areas as they held up for the most part all day today.

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"Keep your eyes on the helpers" - Mr. Rogers
  • #92,511
  • Jun 11, 2008 6:26pm Jun 11, 2008 6:26pm
Quoting John Lo
hi,
what is today trend for GBPUSD ?
Not sure yet... seems to be consolidating... h4 seems up... maybe to 1.98 area... h1 resting on gann, macd pulling back... so could be retrace b4 resuming upward....

I'm certainly no expert... still learning as I go.... hopefully one of the senior traders will chime in on this one too...

good luck in your trading..
Addicted and proud of it!
  • #92,512
  • Jun 11, 2008 6:26pm Jun 11, 2008 6:26pm
Quoting SuperV900
Flat, but trying to head south...
agreed but not yet verified
"Keep your eyes on the helpers" - Mr. Rogers
  • #92,513
  • Jun 11, 2008 6:27pm Jun 11, 2008 6:27pm
Quoting John Lo
hi,
what is today trend for GBPUSD ?
depends what you consider a day.... if you look at your chart you
ll see that it went up for london and and most of new york session now it's kinda not moving to much either way I'm looking for a chance to long it next london session.
  • #92,514
  • Jun 11, 2008 6:31pm Jun 11, 2008 6:31pm
this pair ranged from 202 - 210 for 4 years before it went to 250, this pair is going down tonight , because i shorted it, i see no support for expensive pair like this, k
  • #92,515
  • Jun 11, 2008 6:31pm Jun 11, 2008 6:31pm
This is from a guy who's been trading for 40+ years and knows a thing or two (not me!). He knows his sh*t.

Yesterday was the equivalent of a Mt. Everest summiting when it comes to financial incredulous.

The Chairman of the Federal Reserve checkmated himself in a rather self-destructive manner. If he raises the discount rate by ¼ point, the impact on the credit market problems will be to tear back the curtain of silence, exposing the reality of a continuous debacle. If he fails to raise rates the dollar will tank. If he raises rates and that event is factored into the dollar it will be meaningless. Knowing no further increases are possible, the dollar will rally and reverse downward, turning in a negative day immediately or in overnight US trading.

The market in gold and silver yesterday was completely a product of the "24 Points" of how the metals dealers (COT) work. Today the INCREDULOUS was seen as the Dow peeled off 200 plus points, sending a message past the Fed directly to the White House. There may be a trip to the shed for the entire Federal Reserve Board.
Rather than a reduction of risk to the economy as outlined in four major addresses yesterday, the fall off in consumer demand will challenge the 1930s. You can bank on that. That is quite bearish for the US dollar and bullish for gold if the nitwits that comment publicly would take one minute and review the Formula.

The gold price was a fishing line yesterday and will shortly take the form of a Rhino Horn. The price of gold will reach $1200 in 2008. Gold will rise to at least $1650 by January 14th, 2011
Money & Pain Respect the market, protect your capital, be patient
  • #92,516
  • Jun 11, 2008 6:32pm Jun 11, 2008 6:32pm
Can someone who really understands that cup and saucer thingie or whatever it's called peek at the GU 1 hr and tell me if that what I'm seeing??

And if it is, remind what it means... The last time I heard this mentioned was a few weeks ago when I was looking for a cup to bail the water out of my sinking euro trade.
FUBAR...
  • #92,517
  • Jun 11, 2008 6:39pm Jun 11, 2008 6:39pm
Quoting ak4x
Can someone who really understands that cup and saucer thingie or whatever it's called peek at the GU 1 hr and tell me if that what I'm seeing??

And if it is, remind what it means... The last time I heard this mentioned was a few weeks ago when I was looking for a cup to bail the water out of my sinking euro trade.

The formation is a cup and handle on the 60 min

The idea is that handle is kind of like a bull flag in this instance. You are looking for a breakout of the top of the handle to go long. (it would coincide with 1.9500)
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #92,518
  • Jun 11, 2008 6:41pm Jun 11, 2008 6:41pm
Quoting gene22
I hate to say this, since I've been holding out for the final drop for quite some time now, but.... Too many signs are beginning to hint at the other possibilities, it maybe surprising to quite a few people here but I think we are in for a major rally, bear markets are violent and can have huge upward corrections, 219 would be my minimum target, but I would think 223-228 is where we might top out, very strange things are happening in the markets, dynamics are changing, the only thing that I would prefer is to drop first a bit lower to do a classic fake out, geppy is known to do that before a major turn, risk aversion is gone, gone like the wind. The Dow is declining nicely just as I had thought, right on time and right form where it had to decline, even though I was hoping for a risk aversion to start once we pass 12000, reflecting back over some data I do not think it will happen, panic that caused the initial selloff is gone, the declines are orderly. There is a lot of money parked on the sidelines and it has to flow somewhere. Do I think that we will surpass the last low? Yes, but not in the near future, perhaps by fall, in the meantime the carry lives another day. Even though the vix is ticking higher, and there are some reversal signs on the daily charts, if it happens I'll be very cautios, don't see the required numbers in the cot reports and do not see the correlation to the Dow anymore, dynamics are shifting, risk aversion is not present at the moment, why would it, if the general perception in the markets had been set by the Federal Reserve that will not allow any major player to fail and risk a systematic crash to the whole system. I still think that it will happen in the fall, winter of 2009, but not now, that would be the time to visit the slaughterhouse, for now in all probabilities we might just shoot up, time will tell, ohh forgot to mention hate the FED!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


all the signs i need for the major fall are still there, and actually are getting stronger.

i'm pretty sure well have this fall STARTING in 3-4 days. right now (if i'm right, and i think i am) we should range in a tight range. this is the same time, the same trader mentality (pessimistic), and the same range we had for a week back in November 1st of last year when we were waiting for the "fall".

here's a fibo fan telling a story

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  • #92,519
  • Jun 11, 2008 6:41pm Jun 11, 2008 6:41pm
What I see now from GJ H4 , Doji out of steam to push GJ up ward.

Add : Various Doji at H4 TF.
  • #92,520
  • Jun 11, 2008 6:43pm Jun 11, 2008 6:43pm
Quoting malcolmb14
The formation is a cup and handle on the 60 min

The idea is that handle is kind of like a bull flag in this instance. You are looking for a breakout of the top of the handle to go long. (it would coincide with 1.9500)
would you mind posting a chart outlining the cup and handle formation?
"Keep your eyes on the helpers" - Mr. Rogers
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