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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #92,441
  • Jun 11, 2008 3:07pm Jun 11, 2008 3:07pm
This week we had higher highs, higher lows and higher close, this might be a sign of an uptrend.

This week the pair went to L1 and L2 of the camarilla and had a bounce there which was on Monday, and then accordingly it had to go the other way to test H1, H2, H3, H4, and it happened, prices had visited the 4 levels and broke the H4 (209.20) and went to 210.73, this can be also a sign of an uptrend, so by any means I mentioned yesterday, that even if prices drop down, we won't see it coming back to L1 (206.40) or even near to it at least this week

The open prices of this week was 206.03, the next level is 207 and there was no retracement, then followed by 208, again there was no retracement, then 209, also no retracement happened, then 210, it retraced back to 208.58, then bounced up and went to 210 level again, this is also a sign of an uptrend.

But on the otherside, today 210.70 was the key for it to go up, it didn't reach it, only reached 210.60, and the higher high was 210.40, it strived to break 210.40 today several times but it failed even the time of the release of the beige book report, it touched it but failed to break it, so this means that I have 2 levels tommorow, 210.40 to go upward and 209.40 the low of the day to go downward

Regarding 210.40 if it was broken by tomorrow we might have 2 scenarios, either prices will strive to reach 211 or more, or if it failed this will be the begining of the drop which will be continued by next week

That was my view and I'll place orders on both levels and see
  • #92,442
  • Jun 11, 2008 3:08pm Jun 11, 2008 3:08pm
oh no...

I see potential inverted shampoo pattern in 30 min chart.
  • #92,443
  • Jun 11, 2008 3:08pm Jun 11, 2008 3:08pm
Quoting pkimnyc
lilmoe won't do that. he went long.
Ahh...good point.

I'll have to find my own crapper
  • #92,444
  • Jun 11, 2008 3:09pm Jun 11, 2008 3:09pm
Quoting pkimnyc
oh no...

I see potential inverted shampoo pattern in 30 min chart.
Is it Heads and Shoulders or Suave?
  • #92,445
  • Jun 11, 2008 3:10pm Jun 11, 2008 3:10pm
Quoting bigcoupe
Is it Heads and Shoulders or Suave?
hope it's Suave not h&s.
  • #92,446
  • Jun 11, 2008 3:11pm Jun 11, 2008 3:11pm
Quoting GodfreyH
I could be mistaken here, But I just think that given the bearish divergence in the 4hr, it would be unlikely for price to have any major breakout upwards, (exceeding yesterdays high), before retracing.

Price is still contained in the 4hr channel and the 14 period momentum seems to be strongly pointing down.

Divergence does not necessarily mean that price will shoot down or up, as it may indicate a period of ranging, however I should explain that the idea of divergence , is for me, sometimes different from the classical divergence.

In the 4hr TF, for example, in the chart below, it is not necessary for price to reach yesterday's high. If you were to draw a horizontal line at the yesterdays high on the macd, you would see that price would have to go , perhaps 300 pips in one bar for the MACD to be on the same level, extremely unlikely at this point. So despite the high reached today the zerolag macd was below the zero line. This to me is bearish divergence, although a higher high was not technically reached.
Attached Image
  • #92,447
  • Jun 11, 2008 3:11pm Jun 11, 2008 3:11pm
Quoting ukvipersden
Trichet to raise rates next month??
I do not know, I am wondering this myself. This is what the charts tell me, but of course they could be lieing ;-)

However ig they are not, I wonder why would the Yen be so weak against all, and the same time the USD be weak. Well, there are a number of reasons that could explain it..Japanese weakness due to oil imports and their main trading partner suffering?
EUR hiking rates and hawkish ECB? China boosting EUR to save for any lost exports to US? (Europe is already their second largest expoprt market i think)

I dont know, but I will trade what I (think) I see, and I see EUR/GBP rise, USD.CAD drop, USD/JPY rise, EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY rise , will try to post charts
  • #92,448
  • Jun 11, 2008 3:12pm Jun 11, 2008 3:12pm
Quoting ukvipersden
Originally Posted by ukvipersden http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
broken: next stop 10,400. hey, if it happens, don't expect it to happen in one straight line




question, as always, is timing....but looks like march lows will be exceeded...but like i say, we could/should see a rally before then. In fact, i'd be shocked if there was no rally.
agree on that, especially now that "the bottom is in"
  • #92,449
  • Jun 11, 2008 3:14pm Jun 11, 2008 3:14pm
Quoting vinesh2
Hussin where does your crystal ball see GJ going?
im working on EJ-AJ-AUDNZD
but i can not see a uptrend for GJ IN THIS TIME
  • #92,450
  • Jun 11, 2008 3:19pm Jun 11, 2008 3:19pm
I see a bear on the 1h........and he is not hiding....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 1h gep23.GIF Size: 26 KB
Patience + Discipline - Greed = Success
  • #92,451
  • Jun 11, 2008 3:20pm Jun 11, 2008 3:20pm
hi orionsway
what is your point of view about GJ ?
THANKS
best regards
hussin
  • #92,452
  • Jun 11, 2008 3:20pm Jun 11, 2008 3:20pm
Sorry for posting non-G/J chart here, it is because I think EUR/JPY shows more clear signs of an imminent bullish breakout that could last many weeks and push it to at least the first dot I have marked, about 1000 pips higher than its current price

And if this happens to E/Y, then G/Y would have a bullish correction of its downtrend (from 250s) that would go much higher than the 212-213s , or even the 219s that many ppl seem to expect , let alone see a huge drop now..

Please be aware that my main trades are fairly long term, hence I am not really likely to change my mind because they moved 100pips to the other direction, unless it happens at some real key point

ok here goes the monhtly charthttp://img397.imageshack.us/img397/4...monthlyqu6.jpg, followed by the weekly where I see a major bullish breakout

http://img231.imageshack.us/img231/4...reakoutkw0.jpg
  • #92,453
  • Jun 11, 2008 3:21pm Jun 11, 2008 3:21pm
Quoting Infinity
I see a bear on the 1h........and he is not hiding....

.....
Addicted and proud of it!
  • #92,454
  • Jun 11, 2008 3:23pm Jun 11, 2008 3:23pm
Quoting hussin naiji
im working on EJ-AJ-AUDNZD
but i can not see a uptrend for GJ IN THIS TIME
uptrend
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: untitled.JPG Size: 128 KB
  • #92,455
  • Jun 11, 2008 3:24pm Jun 11, 2008 3:24pm
Quoting Infinity
I see a bear on the 1h........and he is not hiding....
oh, i see him too. ok never mind the flipped over shampoo.
  • #92,456
  • Jun 11, 2008 3:30pm Jun 11, 2008 3:30pm
ran for cover on all shorts ej gj uj 200 pips+ crappola
"Millionaires don't use astrology, billionaires do"
  • #92,457
  • Jun 11, 2008 3:30pm Jun 11, 2008 3:30pm
Now keeping these in your mind,

have a look at this daily chart of EUR/USD showing a typical breakout upwards

(look at the price action during that consolidation pattern, and the rise before it.., and compare them to the EUR/JPY pic..looks familiar? )

Look what happened after the breakout
http://img230.imageshack.us/img230/3...reakoutfk7.jpg

Finally a weekly view of Geppy: 215 I see at minimum, then 222 or so

however, on a closing basis, I see 229 or so more likely - it is the 62 FIB, and Geppy has shown a strong tendency to retrace at higher fibs

plus on a closing basis, the 230 area was the main support of that H/S

(on a candlestic/bar basis, the "neckline" showed much lower due to spikes)

but on long term charts, I prefer to see on closing basis (weekly/monthly)

So if EU/Yen is about to show major strength, I find it likely that this would push G/Y to test as high as this neckline

And no, I am not 100% certain, so dont bet the farm ;-)

Now I will stop cluttering the thread!

http://img505.imageshack.us/img505/4...yweeklytq3.jpg
  • #92,458
  • Jun 11, 2008 3:32pm Jun 11, 2008 3:32pm
that's not a divergence by definition. it is something else, i don't know what, for sure not a divergence.

Quoting GodfreyH
Divergence does not necessarily mean that price will shoot down or up, as it may indicate a period of ranging, however I should explain that the idea of divergence , is for me, sometimes different from the classical divergence.

In the 4hr TF, for example, in the chart below, it is not necessary for price to reach yesterday's high. If you were to draw a horizontal line at the yesterdays high on the macd, you would see that price would have to go , perhaps 300 pips in one bar for the MACD to be on the same level, extremely unlikely at this point. So despite the high reached today the zerolag macd was below the zero line. This to me is bearish divergence, although a higher high was not technically reached.
Nihil Sine Deo.
  • #92,459
  • Jun 11, 2008 3:32pm Jun 11, 2008 3:32pm
30 min, new york goes home, and then we can start trading!
  • #92,460
  • Jun 11, 2008 3:35pm Jun 11, 2008 3:35pm
Quoting GodfreyH
Divergence does not necessarily mean that price will shoot down or up, as it may indicate a period of ranging, however I should explain that the idea of divergence , is for me, sometimes different from the classical divergence.

In the 4hr TF, for example, in the chart below, it is not necessary for price to reach yesterday's high. If you were to draw a horizontal line at the yesterdays high on the macd, you would see that price would have to go , perhaps 300 pips in one bar for the MACD to be on the same level, extremely unlikely at this point. So despite the high reached today the zerolag macd was below the zero line. This to me is bearish divergence, although a higher high was not technically reached.

Yeah with out the higher high in price I wouldn't enter a trade based on it.
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