This journal is my analysis of the GU on 4h/daily time frame. i started this journal to help me improve as a trader and also to test my strategy on a longer timeframe. stoplosses are 20 pips below the low of the day. targets are at least 100 pips or more but can change depending on that days analysis. trades can also last for several days..... So here we go
- #2
- Edited Feb 2, 2007 5:38am Feb 1, 2007 12:23pm | Edited Feb 2, 2007 5:38am
current position long @ 9669 s/l: 9591 t/p: at this time there is no target..
right now as i look at the charts the 4h looks to have no direction as of yet, long and shorts seem to be fighting it out right now
... this is probably b/c of NFP report due out tomorrow. usually when i get that kind of a reading i stand to the side b/c prior exper tells me that this phase of the market is difficult and can chop your account in half whipsawing back and forth. on the daily chart we are still in an uptrend however price has pulled back to the 21ema. this area seems to important in that a deep close below the 21ema could take GU down as far as 9450-9500 handle. i would like to see a bounce off of the 21 for a resumtion of the uptrend but what i like and what may happen are two different thing
.. not to much else to say, time will tll.... so kik back crack one open relax and watch the show...
peace
right now as i look at the charts the 4h looks to have no direction as of yet, long and shorts seem to be fighting it out right now
... this is probably b/c of NFP report due out tomorrow. usually when i get that kind of a reading i stand to the side b/c prior exper tells me that this phase of the market is difficult and can chop your account in half whipsawing back and forth. on the daily chart we are still in an uptrend however price has pulled back to the 21ema. this area seems to important in that a deep close below the 21ema could take GU down as far as 9450-9500 handle. i would like to see a bounce off of the 21 for a resumtion of the uptrend but what i like and what may happen are two different thing .. not to much else to say, time will tll.... so kik back crack one open relax and watch the show...peace
- #7
- Feb 2, 2007 5:00pm Feb 2, 2007 5:00pm
i am long on the pound @9677 s/l 9613 20 pips or so below the low of 2/2
on the 15 min chart looks as if the market has not a solid direction yet. my ma are all bunched up together however the 21ema on the 15min is very close to being penetrated and may atart to lead a short term move in favor of the dollar.. let progress to a higher TF..
on the 1h chart thing look some what similar. the 62ema is at the very, very early stage of an uptrend being that it is trying to cross over the 200. just barley so dont really no if this is the start of a move in favor of the pound or if the market wants to range some more. the stoc on the 1h chart has started to cross its signal line up just barley but not enough for me to put any confidnece or money behind it. another senario on the 1h is that if the 62 ducks back under the 200 and start to range there looks to be some downside diver building.. this would agree with the 15min shrot term move in favor of the dollar.... time wil tell n this one... lets look @ another TF
on the 4h price has closed above the 62 and the 200 indicating a trend to the upside however the 62 and the 200 are flat and parallel not rising on an incline which lead me to believe that a pullback may be coming to the 62 @ 9650 or even a pullback as far as 9590... the stoc is haeding downward and has not crossed signal line so time will tell on this one also... one more TF
the daily. well price has closed above the 21ema which from my backtests is important. next week if price closes deep below the 21ema which is @9626 then we are most likely to see price fall to 62 ema @ 9450 9400 handle. i think i said this in my earlier post... well first trade ended with only 1 pip but it was not a loss and i will not complain i am having a great time already and i just started. next week is going to be interesting.... trade with a skill and the rest will follow peace
and for all in the US happy SuperBowl Sunday....
l
on the 15 min chart looks as if the market has not a solid direction yet. my ma are all bunched up together however the 21ema on the 15min is very close to being penetrated and may atart to lead a short term move in favor of the dollar.. let progress to a higher TF..
on the 1h chart thing look some what similar. the 62ema is at the very, very early stage of an uptrend being that it is trying to cross over the 200. just barley so dont really no if this is the start of a move in favor of the pound or if the market wants to range some more. the stoc on the 1h chart has started to cross its signal line up just barley but not enough for me to put any confidnece or money behind it. another senario on the 1h is that if the 62 ducks back under the 200 and start to range there looks to be some downside diver building.. this would agree with the 15min shrot term move in favor of the dollar.... time wil tell n this one... lets look @ another TF
on the 4h price has closed above the 62 and the 200 indicating a trend to the upside however the 62 and the 200 are flat and parallel not rising on an incline which lead me to believe that a pullback may be coming to the 62 @ 9650 or even a pullback as far as 9590... the stoc is haeding downward and has not crossed signal line so time will tell on this one also... one more TF
the daily. well price has closed above the 21ema which from my backtests is important. next week if price closes deep below the 21ema which is @9626 then we are most likely to see price fall to 62 ema @ 9450 9400 handle. i think i said this in my earlier post... well first trade ended with only 1 pip but it was not a loss and i will not complain i am having a great time already and i just started. next week is going to be interesting.... trade with a skill and the rest will follow peace
and for all in the US happy SuperBowl Sunday....
l
- #15
- Feb 5, 2007 5:16am Feb 5, 2007 5:16am
Hi folks...im a newbie to forex
Obewon...you have done a good job by presenting your journal
As a newbie i have maybe lack of confident or lack of experience predincting the price movement but as far as i cant see from my analysis GU will move downtrend until 19545 or more with today's US data come under consideration. whats your opinion?
thanks sypultraz
just posting my thoughts could be right or wrong.. as far as 9545 you could be right... there is alot of room on the macd to the downside.. i put in a short trade for +34 and just wanted to get some pips back. i also want to see if a trend is building thats why i am going to wait unitl close before next trade...
- #19
- Edited 5:22pm Feb 5, 2007 5:10pm | Edited 5:22pm
today was not a bad day i traded a short this morning for +34 pips 
, got a chance to gian some pips back that i lost with the trade i held over the weekend so thats cool......ok lets see whats going on
trade # 3 short GU @9601 s/l 9690 t/p: (1)9555-(2)9500-(3)9485
on the 15min chart we are still not clear as to if GU wants to trend or to range. as of right now my gut tells me that we will range some more. the ma have some seperation inbetween them but price is traped between the 21 and the 62, also the 200 is above the 800 which indicates to me that the market may whipsaw some more going back and forth. lets look at the 1h TF
on the 1hr the ma are still bunched up together suggesting no trend has developed yet. this kind of explains the movement of the market today as it dropped as low as 9540 or something and is now @ 9610. off of the 1h chart my intial analysis is that GU will move in favor of the dollar. price is under the 21ema however it is not unlikely to see price moving up as far as 9630-9640 before a fall to 9555 the most likely target with final target 9515-9485.. 9515-9485 would probably be the most profitable obviously but i like the most likely target first and wolud have to re-evaluate when that point is hit to continue or close. imo this is a very tricky market right now i am a trend trader so i will be cautious and cut back lot size accordingly b/c betting the bank in this type of market can leave u with regrets. not to much else 4h time
4h is pretty much the same as the 1h ma all bunched up no trend blah blah blah... however the stoch on the 4h has crossed its signal line up comming out of oversold area but i am not concerned about that b/c it has not hit my trigger line for me to take into consideration but i am aware of it daily TF finally...
daily--price has close inside(partial candle) the 21ema... as i have mentioned before this is important because this indicated that price may fall to the targets mention earlier(9515-9480). now;; the overall trend is up so this trade is against the trend. this is where i have to be cautious and realize that the downside is limited.. this is also why i like the most likely target rather than the most profitable. dont want to get caught on the wrong side of the trend even if it is the daily TF... anyway time will reveal all things... well thats all folks
peace
ps one lesson that i learned today is to make time your freind and not your enemy, if u do not see a trade, just chill.... in the forex market oppurtunity knocks all day..... except friday after 4pm and saturday lol
, got a chance to gian some pips back that i lost with the trade i held over the weekend so thats cool......ok lets see whats going ontrade # 3 short GU @9601 s/l 9690 t/p: (1)9555-(2)9500-(3)9485
on the 15min chart we are still not clear as to if GU wants to trend or to range. as of right now my gut tells me that we will range some more. the ma have some seperation inbetween them but price is traped between the 21 and the 62, also the 200 is above the 800 which indicates to me that the market may whipsaw some more going back and forth. lets look at the 1h TF
on the 1hr the ma are still bunched up together suggesting no trend has developed yet. this kind of explains the movement of the market today as it dropped as low as 9540 or something and is now @ 9610. off of the 1h chart my intial analysis is that GU will move in favor of the dollar. price is under the 21ema however it is not unlikely to see price moving up as far as 9630-9640 before a fall to 9555 the most likely target with final target 9515-9485.. 9515-9485 would probably be the most profitable obviously but i like the most likely target first and wolud have to re-evaluate when that point is hit to continue or close. imo this is a very tricky market right now i am a trend trader so i will be cautious and cut back lot size accordingly b/c betting the bank in this type of market can leave u with regrets. not to much else 4h time
4h is pretty much the same as the 1h ma all bunched up no trend blah blah blah... however the stoch on the 4h has crossed its signal line up comming out of oversold area but i am not concerned about that b/c it has not hit my trigger line for me to take into consideration but i am aware of it daily TF finally...
daily--price has close inside(partial candle) the 21ema... as i have mentioned before this is important because this indicated that price may fall to the targets mention earlier(9515-9480). now;; the overall trend is up so this trade is against the trend. this is where i have to be cautious and realize that the downside is limited.. this is also why i like the most likely target rather than the most profitable. dont want to get caught on the wrong side of the trend even if it is the daily TF... anyway time will reveal all things... well thats all folks
peace
ps one lesson that i learned today is to make time your freind and not your enemy, if u do not see a trade, just chill.... in the forex market oppurtunity knocks all day..... except friday after 4pm and saturday lol
