Low Risk, High Reward Trading Experiment

Quoting Lenny

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ITME,

I am very puzzled why you do not want to post your charts. Any trader who maintains his/her journal has the charts in them. "Picture is worth a thousand words". The purpose of any journal is to analyze the system and the trade decision based on them. If you do not have your charts then all you have is the bottom line trade results history. Unless of course you spend time to reread all your posts which makes it extremely inefficient.
Just my humble opinon. I am sure you have your own view on things. Perhaps you consider your charts proprietary or sensitive.
Best Regards

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Quoting itme

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Wednesday January 31 at 14:15 ET

Trade Experiment #333 Sell EUR/USD at 1.3033

Stop is 1.3071

Target is 1.2825 - 1.2860

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Quoting itme

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I don't employ any classical indicators, fibo calculations, pivot lines or other typical techniques of analysis. They would be inscrutable to others, and provide information for others to try to reverse engineer my original methodology, which I have invested three years full time in development, plus many costs. Plus many other of my associates have also invested years of time in direct assistance or related research plus substantial costs which have contributed to our progress to date.

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Quoting itme

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This is not exactly our trade journal. It is but one small aspect of my research project. And yes, I often take the time to review the history of my trade experiments and the processes that lay behind them. That is an important part of my research. It is one of the ways that I learn. Sorry, but I am not making everything I am doing public. To document and share all of my data, calculations, spreadsheets, diagrams, analysis, theories, equations, etc. would take much more time than there is in a day. And why should I? I have tried to share this with dozens of people, and only one person, a brilliant engineer and scientist, has been able to understand it and employ it fruitfully.

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Quoting itme

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We have made many strides forward, including two groundbreaking theorems, and a new science of analysis, but have yet to have capitalised on our substantial investment in time and expenses, which exceeds $250,000 so far.

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Quoting itme

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If you have followed my thread carefully and sympathetically, and pieced together what I have shared and sometimes hinted at, we are attempting to develop a peerless, objective system of trading that would have potentially major implications to anyone who applied it in not only the forex market, but other markets as well. On the other hand, we may never reach our target, and will have wasted several years of extremely intensive work and a small fortune.

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Quoting itme

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Our Elliott Wave counts are given sometimes in the trade experiments. But it would take a huge amount of time for us to prepare special charts expressly for constantly sharing this information with others. And time is the thing we are most short of. Otherwise we would probably post EW Charts. But even that would probably be a waste of time, as we have not seen any evidence yet that more than one or two people here have taken the time and made the efforts to learn even the rudiments of Elliott Wave theory, so we don't want to waste our time trying to debate with, enlighten and educate lazy Elliott Wave dilletantes. Sorry, but these are the facts as we see them.

As I have said before, I believe that a full year of study and practise would probably bring SOME people to a novice level at Elliott Wave theory. And some people will never be able to use it because they don't have the aptitude, time, resources, concentration, precision, pattern recognition ability, mathematical background, ability to balance the deterministic and probabilistic aspects, strategic logic, imagination, intelligence, flexibility, patience, etc. that a good Elliottician requires. There are professional consultancy services and software packages that most people should be relying on instead. And certainly not me, because I have been wrong many times about the wave count.

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Quoting SeekingLight

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Is this an attempt to trade the fifth wave down? I'm currently assuming we really did fail wave 5 down at 1.2875 and are currently in a wave 3 or C upwards.
Wave A or 1 would be 1.2875->1.2983, Wave B or 2 1.2983->1.2925 and then up from there to where we are now in a C or 3.
I know, I simplify things, but we're 12 pips away from our prior high on EURUSD and that to me makes a move down more and more unlikely the further away we get from 1.3000...
I do agree with the targets and with USDCHF at or nearing 1.2700, too, on my old projections.
Going from once again my supersimple perspective, last chance of reversal I see is 1.3050-60. Stronger wave targets I have at 1.3125 + 1.3168 are just too high for my taste, but who knows...
I think the 1.3033 is only a first 3 or C target of a larger wave, but I'm not sure
That's why it would be great and I would appreciate it if you mentioned the waves inside of waves you're trying to catch, as I'm now also starting to count waves on my chart and it helps to learn and compare with someone who has a lot more experience in it than I do
SeekingLight

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Quoting Lenny

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Hi ITME,

Thank you for your insightful response. I have been following your thread with great deal of interest and have read majority of your posts. That does not imply that I am in complete agreement or/and understanding with everything that you have been doing.

Having said that, I would like to acknowledge that I personally have a degree in applied math. I also have significant time invested in Elliott Wave theory, i.e. reading books, taking courses, practicing the market structures. However, none of that would imply that I have been remotely more successful than people who do not have the following qualifications. I am sure you did not imply that those were necessities in respect to following your mode of trading.

More importantly the number of posts have puzzled me since they were not quite consistent with my understanding of your prior posts.

Let me address your last post in some details

I am sure that you have utilized some information that you do not want to expose but since you already elaborating on you wave counts what extra effort would it take to place those counts on the charts?

As far as your expenses are concerned and the time it is taking you to develop this approach, that is admirable goal. But since I assume you are not part Rockefeller’s family, I would surely think that your ROI would play a big part in what you are attempting to achieve.

I do not see that putting the counts on the charts is more work than verbose explanation of the count theory in every trade experiment that you make.

Also, on one hand you are saying that you want to keep a journal of your trades and that is the reason you are hiving this thread but then that turns out to be the reason. I am sure that you know the main intent of this thread but sometimes it appears difficult to understand why you have been putting so much work. That trader scientist you mentioned above was one of your students who is making the presentations or training session around the country (mentioned in one of your posts). So my assumptions is he is not finding many people with Math Master degree to comprehend his method that you had taught him. Perhaps it is again my misunderstanding and oversimplification of your post.

And since you mention that the scientist was the only one to comprehend your system, hypothetically if there were 10 of those people would have that changed your thread here? I just do not understand how all of your notes, trades, discussions, explanation come to one single intent and what that intent is. If you are attempting to help others with Elliott Wave theory then your quotes that not many people will grasp it after all your work is not essentially encouraging message. Why bother starting multiple thread and invest your emotional energy and time (that appears you should not have) in this forum to educate the others who will not get it (your assertion above)

Welcome to the academic world! Anything to develop from scratch takes time and money. That will remain to be the problem unless you scale back and concentrate on proving that you can consistently be profitable in live trading and reccoping your expenses at least. Time factor issues again why spend time with this complex and un comprehendible system if nobody can understand or/and appreciate, and surely will not be able to apply it

But your friend already benefiting from what you had taught him? Why then you were so optimistic to start this effort as your investment shows and sound less than optimistic now? Sounds peculiar but you might be making money with what you had already conveyed to your student.

I believe that you recently started following Elliott Wave theory and what you had taught your friend was prior to your Elliott Wave system exposure. So again I assume that EW is not a “secret” core part of your system. But again I might be wrong in this assumption.

In any case we came back to the very same issue. If people are lazy, not focused, not discipline or merely not “smart” to follow it then why waste the time that you do not have and the time that they should not have either (if that is not productive for them)

I personally do not have intent of taking and applying any of your ideas but I would like to compare our view on the counts and market positions. But your explanations are very vague and often your count changes create even bigger confusion. But I still like reading your posts. I did not take personally any of the remarks you made above. I just hope your intent and purpose of this thread would make sense to me. Because I am clearly confused what one gets practical out of following your trade experiment in any time in the future or even ever.

Best Regards and Wishes

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Quoting itme

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…. a variety of apparent contradictions. I think this thread is full of mystery and paradox, even to me. I know one thing for sure

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Quoting itme

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some people will never be able to use it because they don't have the aptitude, time, resources, concentration, precision, pattern recognition ability, mathematical background, ability to balance the deterministic and probabilistic aspects, strategic logic, imagination, intelligence, flexibility, patience, etc

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Quoting itme

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if I spelled too much out on this site then it would become more useful to traders and thus more popular, which is not necessarily a good thing.

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Quoting itme

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I have tried to share this with dozens of people, and only one person, a brilliant engineer and scientist, has been able to understand it and employ it fruitfully.

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Quoting itme

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But the part in red I don't understand. What is your reasoning here?

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Quoting starfire

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Hello Itme,
You have pinpointed USD/JPY as being at a reversal point (though wave count unclear). GBP/JPY is close to 236.00 (your last published projected reversal point, end of W4), and looks to my untrained eye to have completed waves A-B-C (with a double bottom) after the high at 241.71 (?end of W3?). Does this fit with your own analysis? i.e. about to reverse and begin W5? (not sure if this is consistent with GBP/USD about to take a dive....)

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Quoting itme

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3) references to elliott wave counts without any indication of time frame, degree, direction, starting point, etc and sometimes even currency pair! These are WORSE THAN USELESS!

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