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Static's Place

  • #121
  • May 9, 2008 8:45am May 9, 2008 8:45am
Quoting kaunasny
Whos in for the ride at 1.5450?

Market now at 1.5470

We saw run ups of over 200 pips as retraces.
this run up is now 202 pips retrace yet. So we did
not witness anything extreme. Thought trichets
comments might have awaken the bulls, what i'm afraid
off, but overall, I still have a strong trendline at
1.5500, 1H 200 SMA is also at 1.5500 area.
So before I would consider to go long, I would wait
for 1.5500 to be broken hard, and buy the market on a
retrace or even better when it comes back to test 1.5500 area . That would confirm to me that the down moveis over.
I think 1.5500 will hold and we'll see prices bellow
1.5200 to come.
I think you have the better approach. I am assuming you are seeing something similar to the trendline I have plotted here...

I am taking this trade at 1.4450 due to the fact than in my experience daily pinbars tend to be reliable more often than not.

As of now the market is just hanging around...

Also, the speed with which the market put in that retrace makes me think it may have been a valid reversal day.... maybe...

Everyone says don't pick bottoms.....
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  • #122
  • May 9, 2008 9:05am May 9, 2008 9:05am
Yes, this is the trendline I'm concerned about. And yes, what bothers me most, that's why I'm long right now is because that daily pinbar might put the end to the down move and we will not see 1.5200's , so instead for waiting 1.5500 being broken, I'm long now.. just because of the pinbar and also because of what trichet said, his comments might have awaken bulls up and there might not be new lows...
  • #123
  • May 12, 2008 1:23am May 12, 2008 1:23am
Well I'm out of the market with 10 pips loss per contract ( was using 50 TSL ) Thought I'm not grinding my teeth for not waiting market to break 1.5500 . I'm happy to pay that price for the peace in my self, as if I hadn't taken the trade and it would have gone north since monday open it would really have been emotionally damaging to me.
So I feel good now, as market moves lower and we'll have better prices to buy at and also more pip potential to go north. Now is the wait for 1.5200 , or lets see, maybe this down move is a fake and after we reach 1.5500 I'll start looking for an entry.
  • #124
  • May 13, 2008 10:56pm May 13, 2008 10:56pm
Stopped out on last trade for -70 at 1.5380.

I am heading out on vacation tomorrow to Yunnan province (China). Will be back in two weeks.

Hopefully the market corrects for the next two weeks and is ready for a big buy when I get back...hhaha.

I am leaving my pending orders where they are. One at 1.5150 and a fallen soldier at 1.5900. I am hoping that the market drops below 1.5330 before I leave so that I can initiate my AH. If not, it doesn't get initiated.

Failure to break old highs suggests to me that we will see lower prices soon. We are still making lower lows and lower highs on the 4 hr chart and daily.



  • #125
  • Jun 7, 2008 1:27pm Jun 7, 2008 1:27pm
Well,
I didn't plan to be away so long, but sometimes it works out that way. My vacation was amazing, Spent 3 weeks in total split between Yunnan province China, and Vietnam. I think I was fortunate to be able to see some of the "unspoiled" parts of China. The air was fresh, and the water was clean. Of course, with the 8 dams that are being built in the next couple years in that area, the place that I stayed will be under water.

Progress!!

Anyways. I did take one trade while on the road.

I bought a full position at 1.5700. I was then stopped out for -40 pips.

So... in total after both trades unaccounted for.

Trades Taken: 15
Winners: 5
Losers: 10
P/L: -15

Thoughts:

For the first trade @ 1.4550 I had the right idea, but was a bit early. The AH for this trade has not been triggered yet, the market missed by about 20 pips, and this would have given me an excellent entry into the current run up.

For the second trade @ 1.5700 (also stopped out for loss) the AH order was placed at 1.5660.

Therefore, currently: I have bought at 1.5660 (AH trade) with 100 pip TSL. Stop is now adjusted to 1.5678 for a guaranteed profit of 18 pips.
  • #126
  • Jun 7, 2008 1:43pm Jun 7, 2008 1:43pm
Due to that fact that my performance has been lacking over the past month I am tempted to take this trade off the table prematurely.

The reasoning being that I believe we will encounter resistance around the 1.5800 mark, and seeing how the market has rallied straight up for two days, it seems like closing the position near 1.5800 and trying to get in lower could be a good option.

However, I don't want to start second guessing myself. I have set up the rules for a reason. The most I am willing to to bend right now would be to reduce the trailing stop to 50 pips. At this point in time I think this would almost guarantee that I get stopped out. So, my only other option is to let the TSL do it's thing and take me out of the market when it's time.

So my position at this point (as it should have been all along is to just let the trade play out). The only scenario that I can see taking me out of the market early is if I get very strong price action indicating a corrective drop is near. (very fast exhaustion spike).

As you can see in the chart, it appears that the descending trendline has been broken. But the break has not been confirmed. What I would really like to see is the market come back to test that trendline and move away quickly (at around 1.5750)
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  • #127
  • Jun 7, 2008 1:54pm Jun 7, 2008 1:54pm
I have been reflecting on the fact that my profit has been disappearing over the past month and actually I am surprised at my thought process.

In the past I would have already switched trading methodologies. I would have convinced myself that this system or that system would give me way better entries. And everyone knows that, at first glance, a new set of trading rules look extremely promising, as your eye conveniently forgets all the losing trades and you forget to consider the emotional aspects.

But now, I seem to be happy with how my journal has been going, in that my attitude has improved immensely. This is partially due to Jacko's teachings and partially due to my own determination to be successful in this business.

I have been thinking about my past trades, and there are at least 2 trades (which cost me large amount of pips) that I have learned a great deal from, and having the ability to go back and look at my thought process has been invaluable.

I believe I now have a solid base with which to work.
  • #128
  • Jun 7, 2008 2:11pm Jun 7, 2008 2:11pm
Welcome back Static. Looks like you had a great time

As for your journal and trades, keep at it. You'll find when you look back every now and then it'll help you immensely.


zoopy
  • #129
  • Jun 7, 2008 3:41pm Jun 7, 2008 3:41pm
One thing that has been bothering me for a while is the differential between the 100 pip TSL and the AH order trigger level (50 pips).

Since both of them are number which must be adjusted depending on:currency pair, time-frame, and volatility, they should technically move together.

My line of thinking (questioning) is something like this: Both of the values should reflect the number of pips in one direction needed in a move to make it statistically likely for that move to continue, at least in the short term.

So, if I decide that a trade which goes against me 100 pips is wrong, then shouldn't my AH also be 100 pips before it triggers because 100 pips in the direction of the trend should indicate that this move should continue?

Are there any possible effects of the trend?... ie. if 100 pips against me (and against the trend since I only trade with the trend) means I'm wrong then could I accept a smaller value with the trend? So could I place my AH when price is 75 pips below where I was initially stopped out? Or 50?

Basically I am looking to find a better way to avoid a double loss on both initial trade and AH trade. Even though I am currently using 50 pips for AH, I believe this may be too small. And 100 pips initial stop may be too big.

There are certainly trade-offs to be made while adjusting the sizes of fixed stop-losses and AH levels. 100 pips seems to be cumbersome sometimes.

So, should the TSL and AH necessarily be the same value. I'm not really sure yet, but I am starting to think it out. I am not going to make any changes yet but if anyone has anything to add it would be much appreciated.

Good to be back trading.
  • #130
  • Jun 7, 2008 3:52pm Jun 7, 2008 3:52pm
Quoting zoopy
Welcome back Static. Looks like you had a great time

As for your journal and trades, keep at it. You'll find when you look back every now and then it'll help you immensely.


zoopy
Hey Zoopy,

Good to be back. Well, technically back is somewhere different now as I have moved back to Canada. It's certainly relaxing to be back in the prairies!

Yeah journaling has been great, and especially keeping track of my total P/L and other stats as well as thoughts. I always enjoyed reading other threads where I could see what someone was thinking, and what they were making so that I could compare the two. I think that connection keeps me grounded in the reality of it all.... did I make money or not...

Have you started keeping track of live trades using your newly evolving wave trading approach? I would be interested to see the results.

Going to go see what's new in your journal now....
  • #131
  • Jun 7, 2008 11:06pm Jun 7, 2008 11:06pm
Quoting static
Hey Zoopy,

Good to be back. Well, technically back is somewhere different now as I have moved back to Canada. It's certainly relaxing to be back in the prairies!

Yeah journaling has been great, and especially keeping track of my total P/L and other stats as well as thoughts. I always enjoyed reading other threads where I could see what someone was thinking, and what they were making so that I could compare the two. I think that connection keeps me grounded in the reality of it all.... did I make money or not...

Have you started keeping track of live trades using your newly evolving wave trading approach? I would be interested to see the results.

Going to go see what's new in your journal now....
Did you miss your Timmies? lol

My journal I'm focusing more on trading concept/ideas and process rather than recording of actual live trades. I started recording live trades at the start but then realized it didn't really add value to my journal. The other main reason why I haven't done it with the waves yet is because I've been pm'd by a few traders asking me about my signals. This also makes me wonder if some are using me as a signal service which I'm not.

I will tell you this though... I am seeing some very positive results. Even though last week I missed most of the big move on eurusd, I still managed to grab 100 pips on eurusd, 150 on eurchf, I'm currently 50 on audusd and would have hit 100 on gbpchf had I caught it. Cable I made a trade but lost -120 on that. All of these happened on Thursday/Friday which isn't bad. So... out of 4 trades made, there was only 1 loss. Would have been 1 loss out of 5 had I caught gbpchf.

You'll be able to judge, based on my calls with regards to direction. I usually mention it before it happens. Did that on aussie, euro, Dow Jones, S&P500, oil, gbpchf and eurchf which is a good example.
  • #132
  • Jun 8, 2008 1:10pm Jun 8, 2008 1:10pm
Quoting zoopy
Did you miss your Timmies? lol

My journal I'm focusing more on trading concept/ideas and process rather than recording of actual live trades. I started recording live trades at the start but then realized it didn't really add value to my journal. The other main reason why I haven't done it with the waves yet is because I've been pm'd by a few traders asking me about my signals. This also makes me wonder if some are using me as a signal service which I'm not.

I will tell you this though... I am seeing some very positive results. Even though last week I missed most of the big move on eurusd, I still managed to grab 100 pips on eurusd, 150 on eurchf, I'm currently 50 on audusd and would have hit 100 on gbpchf had I caught it. Cable I made a trade but lost -120 on that. All of these happened on Thursday/Friday which isn't bad. So... out of 4 trades made, there was only 1 loss. Would have been 1 loss out of 5 had I caught gbpchf.

You'll be able to judge, based on my calls with regards to direction. I usually mention it before it happens. Did that on aussie, euro, Dow Jones, S&P500, oil, gbpchf and eurchf which is a good example.
Hahaha, it's good to be back home. All the little comforts. There isn't a single restaurant serving beef stomach and lung within 1000KM!! And that's a good thing.

I am glad to see that you abandoned the scout idea. I think in the end it causes more second guessing, and unless you have a hard and fast rule for adding based on pascal's triangle or some other difficult mathematical model, it becomes very discretionary.

I think one consequence of trading waves is that necessarily you will either miss the move or experience a loss when the 4HR trend changes. Which is fine for a pair which trends regularly on the 4HR.

One question I did have is about the 100 pip TP. It seems that having a TP while trading counter-trend (weekly trend) might be a good idea, but why bother if you are trading with the long term trend? Another option would be to trail your stop beneath each higher low, or possibly a trailing stop using the 50% fib level and other relevant fib levels. I actually quite like the fib trailing technique.

Now this will also have to do with your SL, if your average SL is bigger than your average TP and you have 50/50 win rate then you will have a negative expectancy.

Just thought I'd bounce some ideas off of you. Keep up the great work
  • #133
  • Jun 8, 2008 3:41pm Jun 8, 2008 3:41pm
Quoting static
Hahaha, it's good to be back home. All the little comforts. There isn't a single restaurant serving beef stomach and lung within 1000KM!! And that's a good thing.
So glad I had lunch before reading this. haha

Quoting static
I am glad to see that you abandoned the scout idea. I think in the end it causes more second guessing, and unless you have a hard and fast rule for adding based on pascal's triangle or some other difficult mathematical model, it becomes very discretionary.
I abandoned the scout idea more because it made things more complicated than they really needed to be. Believe it or not, there were 2 or 3 occasions where instead of losing 1%, I ended up losing 3% because the market proved me wrong. The other problem was because I was entering into the market in a much more aggressive manner ie. After the initial wave collapse, I was already trying to short the market even though price was heading up. This is not only trying to pick tops/bottoms, but it's trying to be "smart" and you should never sell when the market is going up period.

Quoting static
I think one consequence of trading waves is that necessarily you will either miss the move or experience a loss when the 4HR trend changes. Which is fine for a pair which trends regularly on the 4HR.

One question I did have is about the 100 pip TP. It seems that having a TP while trading counter-trend (weekly trend) might be a good idea, but why bother if you are trading with the long term trend? Another option would be to trail your stop beneath each higher low, or possibly a trailing stop using the 50% fib level and other relevant fib levels. I actually quite like the fib trailing technique.

Now this will also have to do with your SL, if your average SL is bigger than your average TP and you have 50/50 win rate then you will have a negative expectancy.

Just thought I'd bounce some ideas off of you. Keep up the great work
With wave trading I'm not too concerned about missing a move or having the market go against me. When this happens it tells me there's a high probability the short term trend may be changing (in the case of the 4 hour period). Knowing this information is important because once that wave breaks, I will have a definite bias and there will be no second guessing. If a wave breaks against me, I am able to say "I am wrong, get out" or "wave broke up, only buy". Put it this way, when each wave breaks, there is absolutely no doubt which direction I should be trading in.

The 100 pip TP isn't a random number I came up with like some traders may think I'm doing. It has more to do with where orders are placed. There are other reasons, but that is the main one.

Why do I only go for 100 pips when I'm trading with the long term trend? There's two answers to this. Firstly I'm not trading the long term trend and only trading what the 4 hour tells me. Secondly, if I was to let my trades run based on the long term trend, I'm assuming the market is headed in that direction and that I could make "x" amount of pips. The reality is... I may have a bias when it comes to direction but I have no idea how far it's going because I can't tell the future. So... instead of trying to take one big trade, I'm taking 100 pips and getting out. I can always get back in based on the next wave.

I thought about wave trailing but personally I think you give up too much when the trend decides to change and waves start breaking in the opposite direction. Your fib level trailing sounds interesting but not sure how I would execute that or if that would be effective based on wave movements.

Your question about my SL being bigger than my average TP is a very good one. Funny how you noticed this too since no one has questioned me about it lol. You are very right that I will have a negative expectancy if I was to trade based on a 50/50 win rate. However, based on my testing so far, I'm noticing I have quite a high win rate, definitely not 50%. The only time I could see myself being in that situation would have to be when the market moves in an extremely tight range. Even then I'm not even too sure because I pick well defined waves and that would most likely be shallow waves.

There's a lot of very important questions you have asked especially the last one. I am trying to see if there's a way to tighten stops and have been considering only trading with the weekly waves but haven't gotten to that yet. All of the documentation I've done on waves up until now has been as it happens. I haven't done this before so things may take time before I see the bigger picture. Also ask MPP what he thinks about it because he's been trading it alongside with me.
  • #134
  • Jun 8, 2008 10:52pm Jun 8, 2008 10:52pm
Quoting zoopy
So glad I had lunch before reading this. haha


I abandoned the scout idea more because it made things more complicated than they really needed to be. Believe it or not, there were 2 or 3 occasions where instead of losing 1%, I ended up losing 3% because the market proved me wrong. The other problem was because I was entering into the market in a much more aggressive manner ie. After the initial wave collapse, I was already trying to short the market even though price was heading up. This is not only trying to pick tops/bottoms, but it's trying to be "smart" and you should never sell when the market is going up period.


With wave trading I'm not too concerned about missing a move or having the market go against me. When this happens it tells me there's a high probability the short term trend may be changing (in the case of the 4 hour period). Knowing this information is important because once that wave breaks, I will have a definite bias and there will be no second guessing. If a wave breaks against me, I am able to say "I am wrong, get out" or "wave broke up, only buy". Put it this way, when each wave breaks, there is absolutely no doubt which direction I should be trading in.

The 100 pip TP isn't a random number I came up with like some traders may think I'm doing. It has more to do with where orders are placed. There are other reasons, but that is the main one.

Why do I only go for 100 pips when I'm trading with the long term trend? There's two answers to this. Firstly I'm not trading the long term trend and only trading what the 4 hour tells me. Secondly, if I was to let my trades run based on the long term trend, I'm assuming the market is headed in that direction and that I could make "x" amount of pips. The reality is... I may have a bias when it comes to direction but I have no idea how far it's going because I can't tell the future. So... instead of trying to take one big trade, I'm taking 100 pips and getting out. I can always get back in based on the next wave.

I thought about wave trailing but personally I think you give up too much when the trend decides to change and waves start breaking in the opposite direction. Your fib level trailing sounds interesting but not sure how I would execute that or if that would be effective based on wave movements.

Your question about my SL being bigger than my average TP is a very good one. Funny how you noticed this too since no one has questioned me about it lol. You are very right that I will have a negative expectancy if I was to trade based on a 50/50 win rate. However, based on my testing so far, I'm noticing I have quite a high win rate, definitely not 50%. The only time I could see myself being in that situation would have to be when the market moves in an extremely tight range. Even then I'm not even too sure because I pick well defined waves and that would most likely be shallow waves.

There's a lot of very important questions you have asked especially the last one. I am trying to see if there's a way to tighten stops and have been considering only trading with the weekly waves but haven't gotten to that yet. All of the documentation I've done on waves up until now has been as it happens. I haven't done this before so things may take time before I see the bigger picture. Also ask MPP what he thinks about it because he's been trading it alongside with me.
Based on your current view on waves and the probabilities surrounding them, I would say there is no real way to keep your stop much tighter than beneath the previous wave.

I mean, if you use only a line to view price... there are only so many ways you could choose to enter using only "line action" analysis.

One way to tighten stops would obviously be to go to the 1 hour (or even 4HR candlesticks), and look for price action (pinbars/Ob's) at fib/pivot levels. You could then get away with fairly tight stops (maybe 50 pips).
This would certainly solve the expectancy issue. Because if you only want 100 pips, this gives you a 2 to 1.

This way your wave analysis would be simply for determining the correct way on which to take trades instead of a standalone system.

Actually to be perfectly honest, I don't understand the reasoning behind the 100 pips versus, say, trailing the stop three time periods behind the current one, or something to that effect.... at least when you are trading with the weekly or daily waves.

That is not meant to sound negative, I am really interested in your reasoning.

Lets make some pips this week!!
  • #135
  • Jun 8, 2008 11:22pm Jun 8, 2008 11:22pm
After much deliberation, I have decided to close my current trade.

Therefore I have closed the last trade from 1.5660 at 1.5780 for a profit of 120 pips.

I am waiting for a better price to get back in. I see a retracement to the 1.5700 area to be very possible. The market is at fairly strong resistance at the 1.5800 level, and until it proves to me that the uptrend has resumed by taking out 1.5820 I am still a little skeptical.

So, I am looking to buy again on a 60-110 pip retrace. OR If the market closes decisively above 1.5800 I will look to buy at that level.

Lets see how this week goes. Even with Bernanke's hawkish comments, I don't think we've seen the top.
  • #136
  • Jun 8, 2008 11:24pm Jun 8, 2008 11:24pm
Trades Taken: 16
Winners: 6
Losers: 10
P/L: +105

Back in Black. Cue the rock guitars.
  • #137
  • Jun 9, 2008 12:13am Jun 9, 2008 12:13am
Quoting static
Based on your current view on waves and the probabilities surrounding them, I would say there is no real way to keep your stop much tighter than beneath the previous wave.

I mean, if you use only a line to view price... there are only so many ways you could choose to enter using only "line action" analysis.

One way to tighten stops would obviously be to go to the 1 hour (or even 4HR candlesticks), and look for price action (pinbars/Ob's) at fib/pivot levels. You could then get away with fairly tight stops (maybe 50 pips).
This would certainly solve the expectancy issue. Because if you only want 100 pips, this gives you a 2 to 1.

This way your wave analysis would be simply for determining the correct way on which to take trades instead of a standalone system.

Actually to be perfectly honest, I don't understand the reasoning behind the 100 pips versus, say, trailing the stop three time periods behind the current one, or something to that effect.... at least when you are trading with the weekly or daily waves.

That is not meant to sound negative, I am really interested in your reasoning.

Lets make some pips this week!!
You're kinda getting the right idea with your explanation of how I place stops. In theory and in practice, when a move down turns into a move up, it HAS to create a wave first and break that wave up. Having said that, once it has done this, it creates waves going up in steps. Technically speaking, I could enter long anywhere as long as my stops are at the base of the wave that broke up. Think about Jacko's method. Quite often he will enter at round numbers yet price may be at the peak of a move up. If he's knocked out, not to worry, he'll have the AH (keep in mind the waves going up and how this works).

When you say there are only so many ways to enter using a line chart, that's correct and I'm doing this deliberately so that I have no doubt nor do I hesitate to pull the trigger (this is actually where I think line charts have a huge psychological advantage over candlesticks/bars). When a wave breaks up or down, I know which direction I have to trade in. If it starts moving in that direction immediately I just pull the trigger although I prefer to get a pullback first but doesn't always happen.

Another thing to clarify... the large stops are only temporary ones. When a move down turns into a move up, it has to create a wave first and then break that. Those "inbetween waves" aren't as big as most think. More often than not they're around 50-100 pips.
Here's my reasoning behind using 100 TP other than what I had mentioned. Let's say trader A decides to let his trade "run" and trader B decides to take 100 pips profit. Here's the scenario...

Trader A
1. Enters market
2. Market goes 300 pips in his favour (at this point he's smiling because of looking at all those pips)
3. He's now thinking this is a great trade, it could go way up, lets hold it for longer. He has no idea how far the market could go, yes the market is going in his favour but he has no idea when things could turn around so he holds the trade hoping to get more.
4. Market starts to drop, and he's now at 250 pips. This is when he starts to think... hmmm we going down now? Probably not, I'm in a great trade lets hold it longer, this might be a retracement.
5. Few hours later... 230 pips.
6. Trader A closes the trade for 230 pips because he doesn't want to risk more.

Trader B.
1. Enters market
2. Trader B isn't greedy, he goes for 100 pips. 100 pips is hit, he's now banked it.
3. Retracement occurs, trader B enters again, another 100 pips banked.
4. Another retracement, enters market again, another 100 pips.
5. At this point trader B has collected 300 pips.
6. Market starts to drop and trader is out waiting for next trade.

Result:
Trader A makes 230 pips
Trader B makes 300 pips (without compounding)

If I was trading the weekly or daily waves as is, depending on whether it was long term or medium term, I may let it run but chances are I would probably target maybe 300-500 pips. Hopefully that answers some of your questions.

btw, I don't see your comments as negative, it's constructive criticism and I'm use to that
  • #138
  • Jun 9, 2008 9:02am Jun 9, 2008 9:02am
Ok,

I am willing to buy at 1.5650.

I have placed an order, full position, at 1.5650.

Price seems to be stalling at 1.5700, and it getting jumpy. Probably a few orders coming in, and people covering longs.

As you can see in the chart 1.5650 is an area of S/R denoted by the blue line. Price has tended to move quickly from this area. Secondly, with a 100 pip TSL the stop will encompass the 50% retrace of the current move up. Just for fun I have also drawn a trendline which I believe still has some umpff in it.

In all cases, I should be able to get in much lower than I prematurely closed at, which was my goal.

The steepness of this move also makes me think that it will not last long. If the market had banged around 1.5800 like it did previously in the chart, I would be waiting for a deeper decline before entering.
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  • #139
  • Jun 11, 2008 1:36am Jun 11, 2008 1:36am
Trade taken out for a loss of 80 pips.

OK I have learned something from this last trade. No more overtrading. I think I was so excited that I had a winning trade that I tried to baby it, and ended up actually worse off than if I had just allowed the trade to play out.

I will not be initiating an AH for the past losing trade because my exit and attempted reentry were actually the same trade, I was just trying to stretch it out a bit. Last time I'm doing that.

Had I allowed the TSL to take me out I would have ended up with 80 pips. After exiting and reentering the cumulative result it a win of 40 pips. (120 on the first trade minus 80 pips from the second).
  • #140
  • Jun 11, 2008 2:08am Jun 11, 2008 2:08am
The market seems to have stalled in the 1.5450 area and has now popped up to 1.5500. For me the pivot point it 1.5550, if and only if the market can break and stay above this area then I will look to get back in the market.

Right now I am content to sit out and wait for price to show me that the fall is over.

I have been seriously reviewing how I have been trading and I am on the verge of making some changes to my approach. I have been trying to pick bottoms too frequently and have been getting burned.

Picking bottoms (with technical guidance) can work if you are already in a trend (seeing higher highs and lows on the 4 hr) if your stop is large enough. Many successful systems seem to pick bottoms in one for or another, I think it is a matter of perspective, and timeframe.

For example, if the Daily chart has confirmed that there is an uptrend in place, then picking bottoms on the 4 hr gets a lot easier as long as we are still seeing higher highs and lower lows. But, once a retracement starts, trying to pick a bottom is, like some say "catching a falling knife". The bottom gets a lot more elusive the more impatient you get. It gets especially tricky when the Euro puts in nearly a 500 pip range in about 4 days of trading.

So, for the last couple months I have been up and down pips, and I am now in profit, but not as much as I should be. One reason is that I sat out for the whole run from 1.5000 to 1.5900 out of fear, thinking it was just getting too high. There was barely a 100 pip retracement for 2 1/2 weeks!
Another reason is that even in the increased volatility I have been trying to pick bottoms.

One solution that I am considering is starting to trade more on PA as an initial trade, and then once direction is confirmed, using the TSL method to get in to a trend. For example, if I had traded the Pinbar on May 8th according to PA rules I would have had a successful trade, and then I could look for TSL trades once the direction is confirmed.

I mean obviously, sticking only to Jacko's method I could just be more patient and wait for higher highs and higher lows on the 4 hr before even considering an entry, but I have seen so many good PA trades, which I have left behind in favor of the TSL trades. I think the bottom line is that PA trading works better in ranging markets, and trading with a 100 pip TSL has proved difficult for me in these conditions.

I also need to remember to keep it simple, so as not to try to mash together too many tools at one time.

Just pouring come thoughts out here. I hope to have my thinking ironed out soon, or at least heading in the right direction.
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