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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #92,061
  • Jun 10, 2008 7:44pm Jun 10, 2008 7:44pm
Quoting mktjong
It can't just prop up without backing it with a supportive fundamental. US is still facing a shaky fundamental as reflected by last week NFP and higher unemployment rate .. it is certainly better than a year ago in the time of credit crunch turmoil thanks to FED's lower interest rates and billions of dollars rescue into the market. I agree with some part of Bernanke's comment last week but still not on a solid standing yet on ground ..Thats' why we see a lot of volatilities .. market is still testing the water and don't want to commit to a long term yet ..
.. just my shallowed opinion ..
hy there mktjong, alowme to ad to this comentary that the money given by the feds is going away in high gas prices an consumers goods, and who wants low interes rates if can make the montly payments becouse of the unemployment, and the increase in regulations to get a loan, my humble opinion is that the big guys are long against all ods and they are going to be until they go short, becouse one thing is for shure this gbp/jpy should be on the creepper of lilmoe by now with all the fundies against the dollar and companys like Lehman reporting 2b in losses and we still go up, my 2cents.
The Chonchy
  • #92,062
  • Jun 10, 2008 7:45pm Jun 10, 2008 7:45pm
Quoting iksh
Dear Malcolm,

My strtaergy is very short term and just over the weekend.

I am trying to play the gap over the weekend of G7 meeting.

If u remember, the EUR and GBP gapped over 100 points over the weekend but the GAP was filled very quickly over the next 24 hours due to strong EUR.
Though i wasnt in a position during the gap down, i played the gap-fill on the sunday when it opened.

I was surprised by the impact of verbal intervention by G7 and had decided to take note of conditions next time. and thats why i am preapred this time. i dont mean to hold this position long. Just playing the GAP ( if it happen) over the weekend and will liquidate my position on open.
The G-7 (especially the Germans) were bitching about the weak yen for years and nothing really came of it until the market panic caused the carry trade unwind.
  • #92,063
  • Jun 10, 2008 7:50pm Jun 10, 2008 7:50pm
http://money.cnn.com/2008/06/10/news...ney_topstories
  • #92,064
  • Jun 10, 2008 7:51pm Jun 10, 2008 7:51pm
Quoting iksh
Dear Malcolm,

My strtaergy is very short term and just over the weekend.

I am trying to play the gap over the weekend of G7 meeting.

If u remember, the EUR and GBP gapped over 100 points over the weekend but the GAP was filled very quickly over the next 24 hours due to strong EUR.
Though i wasnt in a position during the gap down, i played the gap-fill on the sunday when it opened.

I was surprised by the impact of verbal intervention by G7 and had decided to take note of conditions next time. and thats why i am preapred this time. i dont mean to hold this position long. Just playing the GAP ( if it happen) over the weekend and will liquidate my position on open.
You need to be careful. Not all gaps close right away. It could take hours,days,weeks,etc so you need to have a good amount of money to deal with swing until it closes.
  • #92,065
  • Jun 10, 2008 7:53pm Jun 10, 2008 7:53pm
Quoting iksh
Dear Malcolm,

My strtaergy is very short term and just over the weekend.

I am trying to play the gap over the weekend of G7 meeting.

If u remember, the EUR and GBP gapped over 100 points over the weekend but the GAP was filled very quickly over the next 24 hours due to strong EUR.
Though i wasnt in a position during the gap down, i played the gap-fill on the sunday when it opened.

I was surprised by the impact of verbal intervention by G7 and had decided to take note of conditions next time. and thats why i am preapred this time. i dont mean to hold this position long. Just playing the GAP ( if it happen) over the weekend and will liquidate my position on open.
How about if the G7's comment: The forex should reflect fundamentals of the respected country and high volatility is certainly undesire ..
I have no idea of how the market will interpret it. Speaking of fundamental, US doesn't have it at current time ..
  • #92,066
  • Jun 10, 2008 7:55pm Jun 10, 2008 7:55pm
Yen's new name is USD II.
  • #92,067
  • Jun 10, 2008 7:59pm Jun 10, 2008 7:59pm
Quoting Rustyyy
http://money.cnn.com/2008/06/10/news...ney_topstories

Well if I read that right. G/J should be going up right?http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon10.gif All negative news lately is good for the U.S. dollar.http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon12.gif This can only las so long.
  • #92,068
  • Edited 8:09pm Jun 10, 2008 8:00pm | Edited 8:09pm
1. Price moves up but doesnt extend beyond high of breakout interval.

2. a) Balance Point/Point of Control drops significantly on this interval therefore making previous breakout movement redundant and shows price moving in new direction (down).

b) Sell @ close of this interval - (210.28)
c) Stop @ 12pips above the high of interval before entry interval (210.69)

3. As price moves down move stop to break even and trail 12 pips (spread + 5 pips) above each interval. Eventually stopped out at 209.03

125 pip profit.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Analysis.jpg Size: 116 KB
  • #92,069
  • Jun 10, 2008 8:02pm Jun 10, 2008 8:02pm
Here's a mental exercise... for any and all to try..
since this pair hasn't advanced 2 pips in 24hrs +.

Dr. D.

http://www.humorsphere.com/fun/8787/colortest.swf
  • #92,070
  • Jun 10, 2008 8:04pm Jun 10, 2008 8:04pm
I am still standing aside on geppy. The new daily 1 c mom on my eur/usd is showing a retrace up to the aqua colored 100 sma at 1.5512 or the 5 sma low at 1.5571. I am holding my short position but i opened a long at 1.5462 to cover the retrace. I will set the stop loss to break even soon.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eur usd daily.gif Size: 27 KB
  • #92,071
  • Jun 10, 2008 8:04pm Jun 10, 2008 8:04pm
Any of the more experienced guys think that the EU is going to move much further down before retracing back up?

I bought 1.42 before but I'm not so sure that it's going to go up again this time.
  • #92,072
  • Jun 10, 2008 8:05pm Jun 10, 2008 8:05pm
Quoting pip_designer
Well if I read that right. G/J should be going up right?http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon10.gif All negative news lately is good for the U.S. dollar.http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon12.gif This can only las so long.
The dollar isn't recovering, the USD pairs are just going through a correction, and JPY is just as weak as the USD. Just because the USD gains on the Yen, doesn't mean it's recovering, it means Tokyo is in same boat. Is my analysis.
  • #92,073
  • Jun 10, 2008 8:07pm Jun 10, 2008 8:07pm
Quoting Clouds
The dollar isn't recovering, the USD pairs are just going through a correction, and JPY is just as weak as the USD. Just because the USD gains on the Yen, doesn't mean it's recovering, it means Tokyo is in same boat. Is my analysis.
Actually it is shanghai and taiwan for now. shanghai is getting hammered. It is set to open this hour. Futures are showing a negative open. Taiwan just opened a while ago.
  • #92,074
  • Jun 10, 2008 8:09pm Jun 10, 2008 8:09pm
Quoting fourxtrader
Here's a mental exercise... for any and all to try..
since this pair hasn't advanced 2 pips in 24hrs +.

Dr. D.

http://www.humorsphere.com/fun/8787/colortest.swf
It's kinda cool ..
1st time I scored 0%
2nd time scored 25%
3rd time 100%
  • #92,075
  • Jun 10, 2008 8:14pm Jun 10, 2008 8:14pm
Quoting mktjong
It's kinda cool ..
1st time I scored 0%
2nd time scored 25%
3rd time 100%


25
63
100
bit of a mind warp
"Millionaires don't use astrology, billionaires do"
  • #92,076
  • Jun 10, 2008 8:14pm Jun 10, 2008 8:14pm
my long eur/usd is +16 so i set a stop loss at break even. Still holding my short from 1.5700.
  • #92,077
  • Edited 9:28pm Jun 10, 2008 8:15pm | Edited 9:28pm
Quoting Rustyyy
http://money.cnn.com/2008/06/10/news...ney_topstories
hi rustyyy how are you man, that is a great report it clear all my doubts of a weak dlr, in weeks to come if not mons or years even do the economy recovers unless intervention, and the goverment don't have the money, and I wish they don't let them print it
The Chonchy
  • #92,078
  • Edited 8:26pm Jun 10, 2008 8:17pm | Edited 8:26pm
Going to see if this works out...

I've been watching the PA from about 1-2 pm CST each afternoon in relation to the Bollinger Bands on 1hr for some time.

I'm looking to see price continue on to somewhere between the upper bb and the M3 pivot. Cuz they're so close tonite, it's a little unclear which one will prevail, so I'll split the difference and say 10.25ish.

At that point, it seems to EITHER continue on into a higher range (more uncommon in asia) or drop back down and especially in a ranging asia session, often touches the lower bb before going back up (when the trend is up, reverse all this for downtrending range) These BB values will change a little as the night wears on, and they may shift a bit.

So, this is a work in progress, just sharing what I've seen so far. When the range is too small to bother, it's irrelevant. When it's 40-60 pips, there are possibilities. Thoughts welcomed. Criticism ignored. (kidding )

PS When the BB's and pivots are very close like tonite, they are even more powerful
Attached Image
FUBAR...
  • #92,079
  • Jun 10, 2008 8:18pm Jun 10, 2008 8:18pm
Quoting Clouds
The dollar isn't recovering, the USD pairs are just going through a correction, and JPY is just as weak as the USD. Just because the USD gains on the Yen, doesn't mean it's recovering, it means Tokyo is in same boat. Is my analysis.
great analysis, how are you doing?
The Chonchy
  • #92,080
  • Jun 10, 2008 8:21pm Jun 10, 2008 8:21pm
Quoting mktjong
It's kinda cool ..
1st time I scored 0%
2nd time scored 25%
3rd time 100%
YOU remain multifaceted and as always... THE MASTER!

Dr. D.
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