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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #92,041
  • Jun 10, 2008 6:59pm Jun 10, 2008 6:59pm
ASX looks like its gonna open flat
  • #92,042
  • Jun 10, 2008 7:00pm Jun 10, 2008 7:00pm
mixed data... market seem unsure how to act to it? i guess it will start trending downwards just cos its over priced right now then
  • #92,043
  • Jun 10, 2008 7:01pm Jun 10, 2008 7:01pm
the news 5m bar and volume tells that story on yen sorry
"Millionaires don't use astrology, billionaires do"
  • #92,044
  • Jun 10, 2008 7:02pm Jun 10, 2008 7:02pm
Quoting pkimnyc
we all go through this. if I were you, I would quietly watch how other senior members trade and ask yourself why he or she is taking or not taking the entry or direction at times like this and learn from them. whether you come out of winner or loser from this trade, I hope this trade will be a good learning experience for you. Like you, I have a lot to learn and this thread happens to be one of my main learning place about FX.
101% agree good evening every one I'm going to try to post a chart to see if Evilgoat teach right, don't of me thanks
The Chonchy
  • #92,045
  • Jun 10, 2008 7:11pm Jun 10, 2008 7:11pm
Quoting OrionsWay
the news 5m bar and volume tells that story on yen sorry
Slightly better than expected data, but wondering if news will affect the yen, it hasn't much affect lately
  • #92,046
  • Jun 10, 2008 7:13pm Jun 10, 2008 7:13pm
Quoting Clouds
whats the story
observations!!!!! take a man fishing he eats for a day teach him to fish he eats for life
"Millionaires don't use astrology, billionaires do"
  • #92,047
  • Jun 10, 2008 7:14pm Jun 10, 2008 7:14pm
Hey guys can you post a little less crap and keep up the high quality discussion. This post is growing faster than my bank balance is diminishing and I'm struggling to keep up!

Ta for some good info and pointless discussion

max
Gravity goes both ways in forex...
  • #92,048
  • Jun 10, 2008 7:16pm Jun 10, 2008 7:16pm
Just a heads up to all for trades to hold over weekend.

Does anyone remeber what happened over the weekend last time G7 meeting took place. i think that was baout a month to 6 weeks back. Dollar was propped up verbally and EUR and GBP open down by a GAP of about 100 pips( and that was when dollar was being trashed all round and eur was in its uptrend.) EUR gapped down by about 120 pips when it was in a uptrend during the last G& meeting over the weekend.
( Hope people on this thread have a memory of that)

G7 due to meet again this weekend. and that meeting in the midst of all these verbal interventions in favour of dollar. I have a feeling that there will definately talk about dollar strength and they might prop up the dollar further over the weekend. since dollar gained significantly today, i think it that eur and GBP will gradually creep up during the week and then over the weekend will gap down in responce to the comments.

I plan to see where EUR and GBP stand at the end of this week and take small positions in favour of EUR and GBP short to hold over the weekend.

And will certainly hold my NZD shorts which have been open since last week and and now in deep profits- will likely close them after the week open to allow for some bounce and to reopen them after the retracement.

This is just my understanding and not a recommendation and can be risky.

what do u guys think of it?
  • #92,049
  • Jun 10, 2008 7:17pm Jun 10, 2008 7:17pm
i think we'll hit around 106.80 within 24 hours on the UJ
  • #92,050
  • Jun 10, 2008 7:19pm Jun 10, 2008 7:19pm
Quoting Clouds
Slightly better than expected data, but wondering if news will affect the yen, it hasn't much affect lately
Clouds - Since i notice morning star at GC Daily, I know it will up. Now around 300 pips since monday.
  • #92,051
  • Jun 10, 2008 7:19pm Jun 10, 2008 7:19pm
Quoting OrionsWay
observations!!!!! take a man fishing he eats for a day teach him to fish he eats for life
I guess the goat don't like the fishing, how are you today Orion?
The Chonchy
  • #92,052
  • Jun 10, 2008 7:21pm Jun 10, 2008 7:21pm
Quoting iksh
Just a heads up to all for trades to hold over weekend.

Does anyone remeber what happened over the weekend last time G7 meeting took place. i think that was baout a month to 6 weeks back. Dollar was propped up verbally and EUR and GBP open down by a GAP of about 100 pips( and that was when dollar was being trashed all round and eur was in its uptrend.) EUR gapped down by about 120 pips when it was in a uptrend during the last G& meeting over the weekend.
( Hope people on this thread have a memory of that)

G7 due to meet again this weekend. and that meeting in the midst of all these verbal interventions in favour of dollar. I have a feeling that there will definately talk about dollar strength and they might prop up the dollar further over the weekend. since dollar gained significantly today, i think it that eur and GBP will gradually creep up during the week and then over the weekend will gap down in responce to the comments.

I plan to see where EUR and GBP stand at the end of this week and take small positions in favour of EUR and GBP short to hold over the weekend.

And will certainly hold my NZD shorts which have been open since last week and and now in deep profits- will likely close them after the week open to allow for some bounce and to reopen them after the retracement.

This is just my understanding and not a recommendation and can be risky.

what do u guys think of it?
good insights, my thinking also, is why im short yen till weekend i think, but i change my mind often so hard telling not kowing yet at this point. I have strong dollar perspective for long time now and continue to hold for a few years to come.
"Millionaires don't use astrology, billionaires do"
  • #92,053
  • Jun 10, 2008 7:23pm Jun 10, 2008 7:23pm
Quoting chonchy
I guess the goat don't like the fishing, how are you today Orion?

Doing well and yourself chonchy, be doing better when they let go of this yen

time is on my side so just excersiing patients
"Millionaires don't use astrology, billionaires do"
  • #92,054
  • Jun 10, 2008 7:24pm Jun 10, 2008 7:24pm
Quoting iksh
Just a heads up to all for trades to hold over weekend.

Does anyone remeber what happened over the weekend last time G7 meeting took place. i think that was baout a month to 6 weeks back. Dollar was propped up verbally and EUR and GBP open down by a GAP of about 100 pips( and that was when dollar was being trashed all round and eur was in its uptrend.) EUR gapped down by about 120 pips when it was in a uptrend during the last G& meeting over the weekend.
( Hope people on this thread have a memory of that)

G7 due to meet again this weekend. and that meeting in the midst of all these verbal interventions in favour of dollar. I have a feeling that there will definately talk about dollar strength and they might prop up the dollar further over the weekend. since dollar gained significantly today, i think it that eur and GBP will gradually creep up during the week and then over the weekend will gap down in responce to the comments.

I plan to see where EUR and GBP stand at the end of this week and take small positions in favour of EUR and GBP short to hold over the weekend.

And will certainly hold my NZD shorts which have been open since last week and and now in deep profits- will likely close them after the week open to allow for some bounce and to reopen them after the retracement.

This is just my understanding and not a recommendation and can be risky.

what do u guys think of it?

last time it was Trichet talking about a strong Euro hurting the Euro economy that tanked it. But that gap was soon filled. Also Trichet is now Hawkish .... if he wants a weaker Euro why is he being Hawkish .. one mention of rate cuts would make it weaker !!!

I think your plan is risky .. better just to be flat and wait for the trade to show its self rather than guess . Do not forget 99% of gaps in forex are filled.
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #92,055
  • Jun 10, 2008 7:26pm Jun 10, 2008 7:26pm
Quoting malcolmb14
last time it was Trichet talking about a strong Euro hurting the Euro economy that tanked it. But that gap was soon filled. Also Trichet is now Hawkish .... if he wants a weaker Euro why is he being Hawkish .. one mention of rate cuts would make it weaker !!!

I think your plan is risky .. better just to be flat and wait for the trade to show its self rather than guess . Do not forget 99% of gaps in forex are filled.
I agree
  • #92,056
  • Jun 10, 2008 7:29pm Jun 10, 2008 7:29pm
Quoting iksh
Just a heads up to all for trades to hold over weekend.

Does anyone remeber what happened over the weekend last time G7 meeting took place. i think that was baout a month to 6 weeks back. Dollar was propped up verbally and EUR and GBP open down by a GAP of about 100 pips( and that was when dollar was being trashed all round and eur was in its uptrend.) EUR gapped down by about 120 pips when it was in a uptrend during the last G& meeting over the weekend.
( Hope people on this thread have a memory of that)

G7 due to meet again this weekend. and that meeting in the midst of all these verbal interventions in favour of dollar. I have a feeling that there will definately talk about dollar strength and they might prop up the dollar further over the weekend. since dollar gained significantly today, i think it that eur and GBP will gradually creep up during the week and then over the weekend will gap down in responce to the comments.

I plan to see where EUR and GBP stand at the end of this week and take small positions in favour of EUR and GBP short to hold over the weekend.

And will certainly hold my NZD shorts which have been open since last week and and now in deep profits- will likely close them after the week open to allow for some bounce and to reopen them after the retracement.

This is just my understanding and not a recommendation and can be risky.

what do u guys think of it?
It can't just prop up without backing it with a supportive fundamental. US is still facing a shaky fundamental as reflected by last week NFP and higher unemployment rate .. it is certainly better than a year ago in the time of credit crunch turmoil thanks to FED's lower interest rates and billions of dollars rescue into the market. I agree with some part of Bernanke's comment last week but still not on a solid standing yet on ground ..Thats' why we see a lot of volatilities .. market is still testing the water and don't want to commit to a long term yet ..
.. just my shallowed opinion ..
  • #92,057
  • Jun 10, 2008 7:30pm Jun 10, 2008 7:30pm
Smart money will be positioning for this event hence the long stance of dollars the event will lock in bad traders instantly
"Millionaires don't use astrology, billionaires do"
  • #92,058
  • Jun 10, 2008 7:33pm Jun 10, 2008 7:33pm
Quoting OrionsWay
Doing well and yourself chonchy, be doing better when they let go of this yen

time is on my side so just excersiing patients
Doing great Sr, thanks being patient too I had 2 or 3 of Karmo's pils allready, will see.
The Chonchy
  • #92,059
  • Jun 10, 2008 7:33pm Jun 10, 2008 7:33pm
Quoting OrionsWay
Smart money will be positioning for this event hence the long stance of dollars the event will lock in bad traders instantly
exactly!


Look at the massive head and shoulder on the eur/usd 4 hour chart.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eur usd 4 hour.gif Size: 22 KB
  • #92,060
  • Jun 10, 2008 7:39pm Jun 10, 2008 7:39pm
Quoting malcolmb14
last time it was Trichet talking about a strong Euro hurting the Euro economy that tanked it. But that gap was soon filled. Also Trichet is now Hawkish .... if he wants a weaker Euro why is he being Hawkish .. one mention of rate cuts would make it weaker !!!

I think your plan is risky .. better just to be flat and wait for the trade to show its self rather than guess . Do not forget 99% of gaps in forex are filled.
Dear Malcolm,

My strtaergy is very short term and just over the weekend.

I am trying to play the gap over the weekend of G7 meeting.

If u remember, the EUR and GBP gapped over 100 points over the weekend but the GAP was filled very quickly over the next 24 hours due to strong EUR.
Though i wasnt in a position during the gap down, i played the gap-fill on the sunday when it opened.

I was surprised by the impact of verbal intervention by G7 and had decided to take note of conditions next time. and thats why i am preapred this time. i dont mean to hold this position long. Just playing the GAP ( if it happen) over the weekend and will liquidate my position on open.
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