Technical Analysis Fallacy

Quoting Acs_112

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Hi Fti,

Are you currently trading the market?

My personal view is that the EUR 5m and 15m look good for a sell around now, but this is against the direction of the 1hr, and the 4hr and daily seem congested.

to help with my understanding of the "feel" of the market i was wondering if in a situation like now beacuse of the higher time frames it would be unsafe to short the EUR?

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Quoting fti

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Hi Acs,

Yes , currently trading.

I had been short 1.5800+ levels had been riding , on 5 wave of the 3 rd.

Whats happening is that because of the fed chair , suggesting that he may have been too heasty in the rate cuts, and had caused inflation. He effectvely is saying , no more cuts expected anytime soon. I think he is taking a lot of fire from the economies that are hyper inflating because of black gold proxy response to the devaluation of the greenbag. So I shall be expecting to meet less of the feds in the market place for a while.
But remember that he iterated that his action of lower rates is correct protocol, so I would read him as saying that he has done the necessary , althought a little too hastely, nevertheless he feel that his actions will bring longer term benefitd to the US economy.

This is the reasons why we are experiencing knee jerk actions in the markets and the crosses are going quire. In reality the markets are non directional, and reacting to any impac info that floats into sight.

To tame this directionless terrain, try to follow the flow , both long and shorts can be profitable. But skew down exposure front end and weight on the rescues (rear) for stronger fire power.
Keep the crude prices in sight, for possible hints, notice that the OPEC is too silent, something may come up.
Keep gold in sights, for inflation in PPP.

If you find the fundamentals front too confusing , then stay peeled on the market rythym and dance both-sides of the dance ,try not to overstay.

Both the daily and hourly is indicating USD weakness agst EUR and cable, but very strong against yen. however its testing dead zone. (S/R) So can be volatile and playing both ends.Like I said, can make money on both longs and shorts, only try not to be too committed to either direction until the market form changes.

General bias is Devalued USD scenerio, gotta dance the form to find the way that this will pan out. I am inclined to be more aggressive USD seller vis a vis when USD buying.

regards

Just that you are aware, 15 min is a spill over managed rescue chart, so does not come into the analytics picture. and i do not use 4 hr charts. It does not mean that you should not use them, just that its is off scope for discussions with me.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4r7MQnTwIV0

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Quoting luSan

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I love congestions...easy trading..

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Quoting fti

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Hi Zoran,

Wow, you quote the bible well.
You seem to have found the "way".

Good for you.
Right mindset, right behaviour, right reaction. right results.

regards

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Quoting Zoran

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You are right, congestion when generally on either side and trending when on the right side - the difficulty is to bite the bullet when caught.

So how is your trading going now as a full timer? Do you find it easier without the time restrictions? Have you changed anything?

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Quoting luSan

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Zoran, greetings,

Yes...congestions are wonderfull...they are teaching me an important lesson: when my trend is broken, I MUST get fast out of the way and reverse...

Regards,

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Quoting Zoran

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Ahh, I have been wondering about that. Reversing but I am not certain. If my rescue point is 100 or 200 pips away, do I wait, perhaps unload a bit and rescue or do I reverse?
>>>100 or 200 pips away? You have guts! I do not tolerate 15 pips! I am quickly out if I find myself out of the 5M trend.

You see, what confuses me is that bulls make money and so do bears, but pigs get slaughtered. Is this restricted to congestion areas or can we break the rule otherwise?

Maybe fti can clarify?

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Quoting zenseven

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I'm very happy today: My wife give a life to our little daughter today. So i'm sorry if I cannot answer questions for while.

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Quoting jest1081

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Hi Lusan & Zoran,

A few snippets to add. Nothing new most have been covered by fti, but i would stress that this is how i determine my approach.

- Never allow ur give up zone to be at chart SR or impt round figure.
- When wrong choose to reduce exposure instead (this will clear up alot of worries and doubts, you may then approach the prices with a firmer mindset), one need not unnecesarily stop and reverse all the time.
- Trade when properly managed and timed can still turn into a winner even when trading against the impulse. I do this only if i am not against the daily trend, but i do have that scorpion in me at times
- Logical averaging and a basic understading of wave movements and SR is essential in conducting proper rescues. There will always be a chance to rescue no matter how far the price moves. It all has to go back to sensible money management in the first place. No losses says the bosses. To add, yesterday was the first time i had to get to a level 4 rescue and im happy to say that i was not that emotionally stressed (surprisingly), for the first time i felt a sense of serenity in my trading, im not sure what it is, its proly just a mental state but to me its a step forward in my developments.

I end with a thoughtful message left by the great Gann,
"Water seeks its level. You can force it higher with a pump, but when you stop pumping it requires no force to cause it to return to its former level"

regards
jest - TAF Trader

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Quoting luSan

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I hope fti could tell us something about it....I mean: is it correct that when we see that the trend is broken, then we close the trade and reverse?

now when I send my scout out...if the 5M trend is negated...I just close the trade and reverse...

My plan is to rescue only on the direction of the 5M trend...Why? I got burned too many time fighting the 5M trend...no more for me...

By the way...I have tested this idea for the last 2 days...and it works very well for me...I will continue testing it for a couple weeks...unless the chief tell me that I am confused.

Regards

PS. What is the difference between a range and a trend? Answer: the slope...so it is all the same but in the trend S/R do not have zero slope...I think this is important...why do I say this?... because I feel that learning how to trade a congestion is similar to learning to trade a trend...just a thought...

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Quoting Zoran

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It sounds to me like you are a lightning fast trader. I tend to choose the more volatile pairs with big ranges but tend to go in small with a lighter scew.
>>>Sure. I am training myself to read the 1M...Very intesesting...PA feels like a living animal. It inhales and exhales..great timing device.

At this stage, if I am a bull or bear then I remain one but I am considering reversing instead of biting the bullet. In these cases the action speaks for itself - if S/R is breaking easily and rescues become difficult then I am wondering whether I should just reverse but it is only a consideration at the moment and feel it might go against fti's teaching.

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Quoting Northpro

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Well done jest, thanks for sharing..and to add to the great Gann message as well as getting back to basics, I will quote the AOW:

AOW:
“The Solid and the Empty”
Military tactics are like unto water; for water in its natural course runs away from high places and hastens downwards.
So in war, the way is to avoid what is strong and to strike at what is weak.
Water shapes its course according to the nature of the ground over which it flows; the soldier works out his victory in relation to the foe whom he is facing. Therefore, just as water retains no constant shape, so in warfare there are no constant conditions.

“The Nine Grounds”
Success in warfare is gained by carefully accommodating ourselves to the enemy's purpose.

By persistently hanging on the enemy's flank, we shall succeed in the long run in killing the commander-in-chief. This is called ability to accomplish a thing by sheer cunning.
If the enemy leaves a door open, you must rush in.
Walk in the path defined by rule, and accommodate yourself to the enemy until you can fight a decisive battle.
At first, then, exhibit the coyness of a maiden, until the enemy gives you an opening; afterwards emulate the rapidity of a running hare, and it will be too late for the enemy to oppose you.


NP

edit: And congrats to you and your wife zenseven!!

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Quoting Zoran

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Thanks NP, at this point in time, I have the following in mind:

--
Now the general who wins a battle makes many calculations in his temple where the battle is fought. The general who loses a battle makes but few calculations beforehand. Thus do many calculations lead to victory, and few calculations to defeat: how much more no calculation at all! It is by attention to this point that I can foresee who is likely to win or lose.
--

It is learning the many possible scenarios and playing out the moves. Knowing in advance what may occur and what action to take - so have as many corners as possible covered. This all comes with good time and practice but with the right mindset can be fast tracked.

Yes, mijamoto - learning and playing chess.

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Quoting luSan

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So are you a chesss player? I play too...and Forex reminds me a lot of chess..I notice an odd correlation between my Forex success or failure and my internet chess player results...
Regars,

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