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EUR/AUD looks cheap?

  • #21
  • May 10, 2008 7:03pm May 10, 2008 7:03pm
Problem with this pair (as with many other AUD crosses) is that it can cut through resistance lines like a knife through butter when investors dump the higher yielding AUD for the 'safer' EUR. This can't be predicted beforehand. however, at this point I'd probably close out any short positions to protect profits. Daily Stochastic are showing the pair to be oversold. Here are the major resistance and support lines. Note the upward channel denoted by the red R/S lines.

fxterrapin
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  • #22
  • Edited May 11, 2008 3:17pm May 10, 2008 7:29pm | Edited May 11, 2008 3:17pm
Quoting de123
i am not assuming anything about the dow,..if i would seek relevance to any pair it would be the usd/jpy for dow,...gbp/jpy for footse,...eu/jpy for eurex or cac or dax,..

ok...i slowly started to buy this pair 150pips sl,...call me crazy.
I don't think that move is necessarily that crazy, but you might want to re-examine the carry correlations. The DOW/SP500 correlates more to the EUR/AUD than it correlates to the usd/jpy, since the EUR-AUD interest rate differential is wider. The wider the differential, the closer the carry pairs tend to resemble the U.S. equity indicies.

Check out the following. Note how much tighter the correlation is, once the differential gets to be > 10%

EUR/AUD to DOW

http://finance.yahoo.com/charts?s=euraud=X#chart2:symbol=audeur=x;range=20070305,20080508;compare=^dji;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on
http://i29.tinypic.com/zlulaf.gif


TRY/JPY (one of the highest differentials) to DOW

http://finance.yahoo.com/charts?s=eu...urce=undefined
http://i25.tinypic.com/16bmru1.gif


Most carry pairs are basically equity indicies with different technicals, over the long-term. (oh... and don't forget interest!)
Why trade the Try/Jpy? Come to think of it, there is no good reason. It's basically SPY with liquidity issues!
  • #23
  • Edited 3:25pm May 11, 2008 7:59am | Edited 3:25pm
Quoting hussin naiji
de123
what is your point of view about EURAUD ?
well it rertrace from 16466, and it might be fuelling for higher level,...but since u have to pay for interests, overweekend trader pull it out,...i might start rebuilding for a test of 1.6566...if cy doesnt take 103...

re: Carry correlations

wou,...didnt think its that related...
its just money
  • #24
  • May 11, 2008 3:31pm May 11, 2008 3:31pm
Quoting de123
well it rertrace from 16466, and it might be fuelling for higher level,...but since u have to pay for interests, overweekend trader pull it out,...i might start rebuilding for a test of 1.6566...if cy doesnt take 103...

re: Carry correlations

wou,...didnt think its that related...
Indeed. Looking at the divergence between the SP500 and EUDAUD, enables one to gauge oversold/undersold conditions on this pair.

fxterrapin
  • #25
  • Jun 3, 2008 12:54pm Jun 3, 2008 12:54pm
de123, how are your positions doing? Looks like we are at a make or break point.
  • #26
  • Jun 3, 2008 2:42pm Jun 3, 2008 2:42pm
lol, my positions says euro will beat us dolar,...in any case, all euro crosses looks cheap,..but we have a long week...
its just money
  • #27
  • Jun 4, 2008 10:33am Jun 4, 2008 10:33am
although there is light support at current level 16044<>70 think the real test would come at around mid 1.58

GL
  • #28
  • Jun 9, 2008 9:39am Jun 9, 2008 9:39am
there are many targets (r/r) after the light support held but 16475 area is not a bad exit, 400+ pipos
  • #29
  • Jun 9, 2008 10:27am Jun 9, 2008 10:27am
Do any one think AUDUSD will go back up, I have buys made at 0.9625 and down to 0.9525 and will not loose money if it goes to 0.9587. How lower do you think for AUDUSD please?

Thank You
  • #30
  • Jun 9, 2008 10:41am Jun 9, 2008 10:41am
Quoting lostinspace
Do any one think AUDUSD will go back up, I have buys made at 0.9625 and down to 0.9525 and will not loose money if it goes to 0.9587. How lower do you think for AUDUSD please?

Thank You
A/U will get as low as 0.95
  • #31
  • Jun 9, 2008 10:54pm Jun 9, 2008 10:54pm
@lostinspace

you may find comfort if this support line does not break otherwise to .93 test

GL
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  • #32
  • Edited 12:03pm Jun 30, 2008 2:39am | Edited 12:03pm
price re test the top after the low of .93 held while ea in range mode

edit : price @ first zone of concern .9552<>42* next zone of concern to me is .9499<>84*
  • #33
  • Jun 30, 2008 7:46pm Jun 30, 2008 7:46pm
If dollar strengthens who will take it worse? EUR or AUD?
  • #34
  • Jun 30, 2008 8:19pm Jun 30, 2008 8:19pm
Quoting TIckerShuffl
If dollar strengthens who will take it worse? EUR or AUD?
EUR
The greatest risk in life, is not taking one!
  • #35
  • Edited 1:54am Jul 2, 2008 1:44am | Edited 1:54am
Quoting TIckerShuffl
If dollar strengthens who will take it worse? EUR or AUD?

well i have not analyse that one yet. back to trading AUS$ my concern on the depth of pullback is not without cause long story cut short its another boring pattern parameter thingy if the top holds then its back to range trading
  • #36
  • Last Post: Jul 21, 2008 7:17am Jul 21, 2008 7:17am
Quoting fxterrapin
de123, how are your positions doing? Looks like we are at a make or break point.
and so we did,...how about today,...go eur/aud go,...
its just money
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