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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #90,581
  • Jun 8, 2008 3:46pm Jun 8, 2008 3:46pm
You cannot rule out that geppy has done an ABC correction and the carry is actually piling on again equities dropping while carries dont is a good sign of conversion of cheap currency to buy the cheap equities. The mega trend is still exists. just a thought
"Millionaires don't use astrology, billionaires do"
  • #90,582
  • Jun 8, 2008 3:47pm Jun 8, 2008 3:47pm
guys, check the eu/aud,..its such a lovely setup......if eur/aud really starts to rocked up,..and if aussie doesnt fall to much,..the eur/usd might break 1.60s...., tel me what u think about this teory...
its just money
  • #90,583
  • Jun 8, 2008 3:49pm Jun 8, 2008 3:49pm
AUD/JPY Monthly, is this pattern, japanese fan? Not sure
Attached Image
  • #90,584
  • Jun 8, 2008 3:55pm Jun 8, 2008 3:55pm
Quoting de123
guys, check the eu/aud,..its such a lovely setup......if eur/aud really starts to rocked up,..and if aussie doesnt fall to much,..the eur/usd might break 1.60s...., tel me what u think about this teory...
Ive been watching that pair. Not sure about eur/usd, but if aud does fall, then eur/aud will go up, and here is possible scenario. However, not sure how strong aud is at the moment, cause it looks strong, but who knows.
Attached Image
  • #90,585
  • Jun 8, 2008 3:56pm Jun 8, 2008 3:56pm
Quoting malcolmb14
so how about Friday being one big fake out on the markets and up we go on Monday !!!

Put it this way I am very nervous of shorting the gj and nervous of going long. GJ should have dropped 400 pip plus on Friday with the markets tanking .... but in reality barely moved( i say this relative to past movements in the GBPJPY when the markets are tanking)

It also did this when the dj dropped 700 points in a week , week before last ... in fact it was going uP as the markets declined.

We are either going to get a massive 2000 pip drop in days ... or gj is in fact going to become completely disconnected from the markets and continue up to 213.

Now here is a thought ..... there are so many better swing trade opportunities out there wait for the GJ to break 204.50 ( it daily 50 sma) and short it under the close of that day , using the 50 sma as a stop.

If you look at the 50 sma on the daily it is trending up !!!!
see, i don't usually "depend" too much on dow and other futures markets to tell me what GJ would do. i do look at them and write comments, BUT, i take each and every pair as a single entity. the carts are screaming shorts, to me at least. it's not surprise that lots of traders disagree, but have u ever known 2 traders that agree on something ALL the time? i still believe there would be a fall. and i believe complete "non-sync" between pairs and markets is just about to start.
  • #90,586
  • Jun 8, 2008 3:56pm Jun 8, 2008 3:56pm
So after open, who's holding shorts and who is going long to fill gap? I am thinking I should just hold my open shorts.
Craazy
  • #90,587
  • Jun 8, 2008 3:57pm Jun 8, 2008 3:57pm
Quoting lilmoe
true, but that uptrend was pretty obvious i think. however, euro's uptrend is pretty different, more lie crude oil's. i mean the last major retracement it had started back in december of 2004 on the monthly chart which was only 38.2%. ever since it was in an uptrend till now. i think IF the uptrend should resume, we need a good retracement before hand. i'm guessing another 38.2% which should put us somewhere around 1.45.

i watching some bearish divergence on CCI, and a TL.

check this out. for my own experience 78.6 FE is pretty tough resistance, and price bounced 600 pips just after touching it.

ALSO, we have something very close to be a "shampoo" formation.

Attachment
78.6% is a tough fe to break ... but if it does then 128% fe here we come

On my monthly 1.5480 is the 78.6% fe and I think if we break 1.6000 just pure momentum alone will take her up to 1.7400 (100% fe)

I placed a channel on the monthly and the top of that channel is 1.7400.

October you say ... mmmmm looking at the slope the reversal point may well be 1.7400 ... .sounds crazy right .. but look at daily linear regression channel. Unless this is broken it could be September.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd.png Size: 377 KB


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusddaily.png Size: 369 KB
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #90,588
  • Jun 8, 2008 3:58pm Jun 8, 2008 3:58pm
Quoting lilmoe
true, but that uptrend was pretty obvious i think. however, euro's uptrend is pretty different, more lie crude oil's. i mean the last major retracement it had started back in december of 2004 on the monthly chart which was only 38.2%. ever since it was in an uptrend till now. i think IF the uptrend should resume, we need a good retracement before hand. i'm guessing another 38.2% which should put us somewhere around 1.45.

i watching some bearish divergence on CCI, and a TL.

check this out. for my own experience 78.6 FE is pretty tough resistance, and price bounced 600 pips just after touching it.

ALSO, we have something very close to be a "shampoo" formation on daily.

Attachment
love the banter by the way. I really respect you as a trader.
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #90,589
  • Jun 8, 2008 3:59pm Jun 8, 2008 3:59pm
Quoting malcolmb14
simple bull flags ...... each one 2 months long ..... each flagpole 1500 pips . That takes us to 1.7000

In order for your 1.35 to come around we need to break the bottom of the last bull flag for this ' stepping' pattern to break

Attachment

1.7 is FE 100 on my setup. and the cycle SHOULD end there.

but i'm not sure if it will just now. a good retracement will happen i think. last week's rally was just a scam, me thinks.

btw, people did laugh at me when i said EU is going up last week, and the DID laugh at me when i said EU will FALL the week prior.

lets see how many will laugh this time
  • #90,590
  • Jun 8, 2008 4:01pm Jun 8, 2008 4:01pm
Quoting malcolmb14
love the banter by the way. I really respect you as a trader.



now, let's hope i'm wrong (for the sake of the millions of longs out there, looool)

if we do reach 1.7 - 1.74, i DO think it would be the TOP for a very long time.
  • #90,591
  • Jun 8, 2008 4:03pm Jun 8, 2008 4:03pm
Quoting malcolmb14
love the banter by the way. I really respect you as a trader.

that's the codename piters suggested for that formation btw
  • #90,592
  • Jun 8, 2008 4:06pm Jun 8, 2008 4:06pm
lilmoe how's the weather in amman?
  • #90,593
  • Jun 8, 2008 4:06pm Jun 8, 2008 4:06pm
Quoting lilmoe


now, let's hope i'm wrong (for the sake of the millions of longs out there, looool)

if we do reach 1.7 - 1.74, i DO think it would be the TOP for a very long time.
now that we can agree on ....lol
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #90,594
  • Jun 8, 2008 4:07pm Jun 8, 2008 4:07pm
bye for now, dear traders...

got to go...

for awhile...

i go jogging for a few hours....

while market is still yawning....

ciao!!!!

I'm not an expert but I can read charts.
  • #90,595
  • Jun 8, 2008 4:08pm Jun 8, 2008 4:08pm
Quoting malcolmb14
78.6% is a tough fe to break ... but if it does then 128% fe here we come

On my monthly 1.5480 is the 78.6% fe and I think if we break 1.6000 just pure momentum alone will take her up to 1.7400 (100% fe)

I placed a channel on the monthly and the top of that channel is 1.7400.

October you say ... mmmmm looking at the slope the reversal point may well be 1.7400 ... .sounds crazy right .. but look at daily linear regression channel. Unless this is broken it could be September.

Attachment

Attachment


i see the year 1970 on your chart, plz remind me when was the "EURO" europe's major currency?

i wouldn't take that far back into consideration on my charts
  • #90,596
  • Jun 8, 2008 4:09pm Jun 8, 2008 4:09pm
Quoting susufx
lilmoe how's the weather in amman?
well, it's very nice here. a bit hot at daytime (33 degrees), but it's pretty nice and cool at night, what about ur end?
  • #90,597
  • Jun 8, 2008 4:11pm Jun 8, 2008 4:11pm
And now...I'm long with TP 206.40...Just scalping the gap...
  • #90,598
  • Jun 8, 2008 4:14pm Jun 8, 2008 4:14pm
Quoting Küster
And now...I'm long with TP 206.40...Just scalping the gap...
What was the open price?
Que
  • #90,599
  • Jun 8, 2008 4:15pm Jun 8, 2008 4:15pm
Quoting Que
What was the open price?
For me it was 206.00
  • #90,600
  • Jun 8, 2008 4:21pm Jun 8, 2008 4:21pm
Quoting Que
What was the open price?
i have 206.68 as the open
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