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Weekly 80/20 Setups

  • #241
  • Edited 2:03pm Jun 6, 2008 1:30pm | Edited 2:03pm
Quoting Flyjetz
Dim,

No offense, but this is your first post on Forex Factory. For me to even be interested in looking at your idea, you'll need to at least provide some concrete results of your backtesting. Saying "these may be more profitable" doesn't really help anybody. Let's see your numbers.
I was just offering suggestions. It may have been my 1st post, but I've been reading this board reguraly for about a year and a half, as well as other Forex boards, and learning and trying out new ideas.

You don't have to consider or try out my ideas if you don't want to - wouldn't bother me one bit. I was throwing ideas out there for others to maybe try.

My results aren't concrete and are more or less estimates. Take the totals with a grain of salt, and don't quote me on them. I was just trying to look at the big picture.

GbpUsd (weekly) 2003-2008
- Original rules: +341
- Using AvgHiLo+/-Atr3 as bands: +2307

GbpUsd(daily) 2006-2007
- Original rules: -118
- Using AvgHiLo+/-Atr3 as bands: +1742
- Using AvgHiLo+/-Atr3 as bands, and 1 bar slope change as signal: +2618

The bad thing about using these bands, the get hit less often and are subject to bigger losses.

I started testing EurUsd, the results were about the same for the original rules and my suggestions - and they weren't that great - struggled to show a profit in the long run. I stopped backtesting for now as I don't have the time.
  • #242
  • Jun 6, 2008 2:10pm Jun 6, 2008 2:10pm
Quoting dim13
I was just offering suggestions. It may have been my 1st post, but I've been reading this board reguraly for about a year and a half, as well as other Forex boards, and learning and trying out new ideas.

You don't have to consider or try out my ideas if you don't want to - wouldn't bother me one bit. I was throwing ideas out there for others to maybe try.

My results aren't concrete and are more or less estimates. Take the totals with a grain of salt, and don't quote me on them. I was just trying to look at the big picture.

GbpUsd (weekly) 2003-2008
- Original rules: +341
- Using AvgHiLo+/-Atr3 as bands: +2307

GbpUsd(daily) 2006-2007
- Original rules: -118
- Using AvgHiLo+/-Atr3 as bands: +1742
- Using AvgHiLo+/-Atr3 as bands, and 1 bar slope change as signal: +2618

The bad thing about using these bands, the get hit less often and are subject to bigger losses.

I started testing EurUsd, the results were about the same for the original rules and my suggestions - and they weren't that great - struggled to show a profit in the long run. I stopped backtesting for now as I don't have the time.
Dim,

I wasn't trying to offend, thus the "no offense" I started out with. I certainly am open to other's ideas here. I was just looking for some additional info into what you were suggesting. Thanks for the numbers. What did you use to backtest?
  • #243
  • Jun 6, 2008 2:55pm Jun 6, 2008 2:55pm
Quoting Flyjetz
Dim,

I wasn't trying to offend, thus the "no offense" I started out with. I certainly am open to other's ideas here. I was just looking for some additional info into what you were suggesting. Thanks for the numbers. What did you use to backtest?
I know you weren't trying to offend, and I didn't realize I hadn't posted here before, but even though I hadn't, doesn't mean my ideas are going to be any less valid than if I had tons of posts.

I am sorry if there is any bit of negativity here, and I do want to thank you for this thread and sharing your ideas, and wish you the best. You've got a good thing going and I hope it continues.

I'm not saying it's not going to be profitable (you are proving it is), or what I suggested is any better. I'm just throwing ideas around.

I used IBFX data for my backesting and I used the excel spreadsheet that was uploaded in this thread, modified it and added a few columns so I could use it to backtest.
  • #244
  • Jun 6, 2008 3:40pm Jun 6, 2008 3:40pm
Here is a copy of the excel spreadsheet I used. I had to delete alot from it including tabs and data from the 80s and 90s to make the file small enough to upload.

Attachment

It may seem a bit confusing as I never intended it for others when I created it. Just for myself for easier backtesting. I jotted down my estimated results on paper and only included monthly or yearly totals for those estimates. Again, the totals aren't exact, just estimates, and in some cases, worst case senerio.

Results:
(1) Column AE:
80/20 Bands (Columns O/P) and SlopeSignal (Col W) for L/S siganl- original rules

(2) Column AF:
80/20 Bands (cols O/P) and AvgSlopeChangefor (Col X) for L/S

(3) Column AG:
80/20 Bands (cols O/P and SlopeChange (Col Y) for L/S signal

(4) Column AH:
AvgHi3/Lo3 for Bands (Columns S/T) and SlopeSignal (Col W) for L/S siganl- original rules

(5) Column AI:
AvgHi3/Lo3 for (cols S/T) and AvgSlopeChangefor (Col X) for L/S

(6) Column AJ:
AvgHi3/Lo3 for (cols S/T and SlopeChange (Col Y) for L/S signal

(7) Column AK:
AvgHi3/Lo3+/-ATR3*.5 for Bands (Columns U/V) and SlopeSignal (Col W) for L/S siganl- original rules

(8) Column AL:
AvgHi3/Lo3+/-ATR3*.5 for (cols U/V) and AvgSlopeChangefor (Col X) for L/S

(9) Column AM:
AvgHi3/Lo3+/-ATR3*.5 for (cols U/V and SlopeChange (Col Y) for L/S signal

Notes:
- In columns O, P, S, T, U, V (the bands) - number will be highlighted if the target was reached the following day. This makes it easy to see where the price was hit for Highs/Lows

- Any cell with a green backgound you can enter data into. If not green, don't enter. Example, if you change the 80% in cell (O3) - will recalculate the 80/20 bands. If you change the W3 cell (from 0.0015 to some other number) the data signal will be recalced. If you change cell U3 (the 50% for the AvgHi3/Lo3+/-ATR3) the bands will be recalced.

- Alot of columns used in calculations are hidden.

I had a seperate tab set up for each currency, but had to delete them all because the file was too big. I could only upload a file under 1 meg.
  • #245
  • Jun 6, 2008 7:01pm Jun 6, 2008 7:01pm
You can test the trading lines indicator:
.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd_weekly.gif Size: 9 KB
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 WeeklyTrading Lines_v1.mq4   7 KB | 493 downloads
  • #246
  • Jun 6, 2008 9:10pm Jun 6, 2008 9:10pm
Quoting dim13

Attachment
Dim,

This link seems to be broken. My biggest question is whether or not the data you used was end of day data or intraday data? End of day data is useless for backtesting this system.
  • #247
  • Jun 7, 2008 8:52am Jun 7, 2008 8:52am
looking forward towards next week numbers

keep on the good work flyjetz!!
  • #248
  • Jun 7, 2008 11:44am Jun 7, 2008 11:44am
Quoting Flyjetz
Dim,

This link seems to be broken. My biggest question is whether or not the data you used was end of day data or intraday data? End of day data is useless for backtesting this system.

I used both intraday and end of day data. For the spreadsheet I used end of day to get the signals and bands. When manually backtesting trades I used intraday.

Again, I did it more as an estimate to get an overall big picture for myself, not for factual backtesting. I wasn't planning on posting, and if I did just to suggest some new ideas out.

The link was working yesterday, and I tested it. The file size was slightly over their limit and must have been removed. After I uploaded the file, I deleted it from my computer because I had to strip out a lot of stuff to shrink it down. I'll try again when I have some time.
  • #249
  • Jun 7, 2008 9:41pm Jun 7, 2008 9:41pm
PAIR Direction Entry Exit (My Position)

GBP/JPY Short 208.38 TP=204.49 (Waiting for entry price)
GBP/USD Long 1.9534 TP=1.9754 (Long from 1.9657)
USD/JPY Short 105.99 TP=104.20 (Short from 104.31)
USD/CHF Short 1.0419 TP=1.0226 (Waiting for entry price)
EUR/USD Long 1.5517 TP=1.5738 (Waiting for entry price)
AUD/USD Long 0.9537 TP=0.9683 (Long from 0.9546)
NZD/USD Long 0.7699* TP=0.7832 (Long from 0.7784)
USD/CAD Short 1.0142* TP=0.9995 (Short from 0.9974)
EUR/GBP Long 0.7909 TP=0.7998 (Waiting for entry price)
EUR/JPY Long 163.14 TP=165.67 (Waiting for entry price)

*Depending on your broker's weekend market spread, you may be able to get into this trade right now at a price better than the listed entry price!

Since I was already in several of these trades, I posted my original entry points. I adjust my exit point (TP) based on the new week's levels. If you are just getting in for the first time, I listed the proper entry points for those trades as well. When you see me post my closed positions, it will be based on my original entry price, not necessarily the entry prices posted above. However, if I end up closing a trade, I immediately reopen a trade with the current week's entry prices listed above. It's possible to run from entry price to exit price more than once in a week in a single currency.
  • #250
  • Jun 7, 2008 9:51pm Jun 7, 2008 9:51pm
Closed Trade #54:
Enter Date Direction Pair Price Exit Date Price Pips
29-May-08 Long EUR/USD 1.5593 06-Jun-08 1.5773 +180

http://i276.photobucket.com/albums/k...USD07JUN08.jpg

Overall Results:
+3543 Cumulative Pip Total

38 Winning Trades (+160.37 pips/win)
18 Losing Trades (-141.17 pips/loss)
67.86% Win Rate
+63.27 Pips/Trade


By Pair:
GBP/JPY +298
GBP/USD +380
USD/JPY +4
USD/CHF +495
EUR/USD +1254
AUD/USD +496
NZD/USD +401
USD/CAD +367
EUR/GBP +300
EUR/JPY -371

I currently have open positions in:

Trade No. Enter Date Direction Pair Price
#53) 27-May-08 Short USD/JPY 104.31
#56) 29-May-08 Long AUD/USD 0.9546
#57) 30-May-08 Short USD/CAD 0.9974
#58) 02-Jun-08 Long GBP/USD 1.9657
#60) 04-Jun-08 Long NZD/USD 0.7784
  • #251
  • Jun 8, 2008 5:10am Jun 8, 2008 5:10am
Hi Flyjetz, I'm still trying to understand your system , now I have this figures on EURUSD and I'm starting without any positions opened :

[NEXT WEEK]
actual Bid : 1.5769
line 80% : 1.5722
line 20% : 1.5638
Proj Middle : 1.5680
avg length : 0.0089
avg slope : 1.0004

so from what I understand (pls correct if I'm wrong), for the next week I have to pick only long trade since avg slope is more than 1. So I'll place only a buy limit order at line 20% 1.5638 with a tp at line 80% at 1.5722 and wait until it's triggered (now bid is above entry point at 1.5769). If entry limit isn't triggered for the whole week then I'll repeat the process with next week values.
Is that right ?

thx
Skyline
  • #252
  • Jun 8, 2008 6:41am Jun 8, 2008 6:41am
Quoting skyline
Hi Flyjetz, I'm still trying to understand your system , now I have this figures on EURUSD and I'm starting without any positions opened :

[NEXT WEEK]
actual Bid : 1.5769
line 80% : 1.5722
line 20% : 1.5638
Proj Middle : 1.5680
avg length : 0.0089
avg slope : 1.0004

so from what I understand (pls correct if I'm wrong), for the next week I have to pick only long trade since avg slope is more than 1. So I'll place only a buy limit order at line 20% 1.5638 with a tp at line 80% at 1.5722 and wait until it's triggered (now bid is above entry point at 1.5769). If entry limit isn't triggered for the whole week then I'll repeat the process with next week values.
Is that right ?

thx
Skyline
That's exactly right.
  • #253
  • Jun 8, 2008 6:46am Jun 8, 2008 6:46am
Quoting skyline
Hi Flyjetz, I'm still trying to understand your system , now I have this figures on EURUSD and I'm starting without any positions opened :

[NEXT WEEK]
actual Bid : 1.5769
line 80% : 1.5722
line 20% : 1.5638
Proj Middle : 1.5680
avg length : 0.0089
avg slope : 1.0004

so from what I understand (pls correct if I'm wrong), for the next week I have to pick only long trade since avg slope is more than 1. So I'll place only a buy limit order at line 20% 1.5638 with a tp at line 80% at 1.5722 and wait until it's triggered (now bid is above entry point at 1.5769). If entry limit isn't triggered for the whole week then I'll repeat the process with next week values.
Is that right ?

thx
Skyline
On second look, your thought process is correct, but your numbers are all whacked. I'm not sure if you are using something other than a 20 weeks of data. If you have another method for calculating your candle, then that's fine. But here are my numbers for comparison:

line 80% : 1.5738
line 20% : 1.5517
Proj Middle : 1.5627
avg length : 0.0236
avg slope : 1.003548
  • #254
  • Jun 8, 2008 7:50am Jun 8, 2008 7:50am
Quoting Flyjetz
On second look, your thought process is correct, but your numbers are all whacked. I'm not sure if you are using something other than a 20 weeks of data. If you have another method for calculating your candle, then that's fine. But here are my numbers for comparison:

line 80% : 1.5738
line 20% : 1.5517
Proj Middle : 1.5627
avg length : 0.0236
avg slope : 1.003548
Oh ok Flyjetz , actually I'm using indicator posted by Swingman I didn't check the math there so maybe there's some error , I'll check it.

Thx

Skyline
  • #255
  • Jun 8, 2008 7:55am Jun 8, 2008 7:55am
Quoting skyline
Oh ok Flyjetz , actually I'm using indicator posted by Swingman I didn't check the math there so maybe there's some error , I'll check it.

Thx

Skyline
Ohh what a stupid I am ! I put the indicator on D1 chart instead of W1

Ok my correct values for W1 on EURUSD are quite the same as your now :

[NEXT WEEK]
actual Bid : 1.5769
line 80% : 1.5727
line 20% : 1.5508
Proj Middle : 1.5618
avg length : 0.0233
avg slope : 1.0031



cheers,
Skyline
  • #256
  • Jun 8, 2008 9:11am Jun 8, 2008 9:11am
Quoting skyline
...actually I'm using indicator posted by Swingman I didn't check the math there so maybe there's some error , I'll check it.
- Please do this!

Who is your broker, because we have different figures?
  • #257
  • Jun 8, 2008 11:32am Jun 8, 2008 11:32am
Quoting SwingMan
- Please do this!

Who is your broker, because we have different figures?
My broker is FXDD, btw your indicator seems to be correct , initially I posted wrongly values from Daily chart instead of Weekly chart.
  • #258
  • Edited 7:16pm Jun 8, 2008 6:30pm | Edited 7:16pm
Please test also the DashBoard:
.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd_dashboard2.gif Size: 23 KB
Attached File(s)
File Type: tpl Weeek8020_DashBoard.tpl   55 KB | 428 downloads
File Type: ex4 Weekly8020 DashBoard_v1.ex4   15 KB | 487 downloads
  • #259
  • Jun 8, 2008 7:41pm Jun 8, 2008 7:41pm
My orders:
.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: orders.PNG Size: 41 KB
  • #260
  • Jun 9, 2008 7:14am Jun 9, 2008 7:14am
Closed Trade #58:
02-Jun-08 Long GBP/USD 1.9657 09-Jun-08 1.9754 +97

http://i276.photobucket.com/albums/k...USD09JUN08.jpg

Overall Results:
+3640 Cumulative Pip Total

39 Winning Trades (+158.74 pips/win)
18 Losing Trades (-141.17 pips/loss)
68.42% Win Rate
+63.86 Pips/Trade


By Pair:
GBP/JPY +298
GBP/USD +477
USD/JPY +4
USD/CHF +495
EUR/USD +1254
AUD/USD +496
NZD/USD +401
USD/CAD +367
EUR/GBP +300
EUR/JPY -371

I currently have open positions in: (new position in BOLD)

Trade No. Enter Date Direction Pair Price
#53) 27-May-08 Short USD/JPY 104.31
#56) 29-May-08 Long AUD/USD 0.9546
#57) 30-May-08 Short USD/CAD 0.9974
#60) 04-Jun-08 Long NZD/USD 0.7784
#61) 09-Jun-08 Short GBP/JPY 208.38
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