NFP=no free pips(non farm.. how to trade it) | Forex Factory

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NFP=no free pips(non farm.. how to trade it)

  • #1
  • First Post: Edited 12:40am Jun 6, 2008 12:17am | Edited 12:40am
as the market and traders patiently awaits the most market moving release for the us which is the non farm payroll ( no free pips), it is obvious that alot of trader does not make it as easy as it use to be again with this release.

the question now is this will the release be good or bad for the usd?

well for me i figure out alot of reasons.

despite the ISM Manufacturing Employment Component released on tuesday and better than forcast but it can be seen that it is less than 50.0 which is not good for the usd, another reason is the better than forcasted growth in the ADP sector well thanks to a jump in hiring in the services sector.

according to bloomberg survey we expect another job losses and for me am anticipating for another losses in job sector.

let see how this can help us.

what i expect : if it prints at -60k or more EUR/USD will likely break above near-term resistance at 1.5600 and continue its ascent. On the other hand, better-than-expected non-farm payrolls could cap the pair’s gains on Friday, though it may only be a matter of time before the US dollar starts to weaken again.

enjoy
meet you at the top
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  • #2
  • Jun 6, 2008 12:29am Jun 6, 2008 12:29am
ADP was positive...USD has been gaining strength since last week and forecast is -57k. So I think the biggest move will happen if the nfp comes out really bad like -100k or worse and that will really make usd fall like crazy.
  • #3
  • Jun 6, 2008 5:14am Jun 6, 2008 5:14am
let see as we wait
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  • #4
  • Jun 6, 2008 5:39am Jun 6, 2008 5:39am
50 pip Trap Spread 3 contracts, 3 up 3 down, entry long 1.5640, entry short 1.5540 Hard stop 100 pips away from each, 1 contract TP +50 pips for each direction let the other 2 run. Plain and simple. Make it an OCO if you want.
"Diversification is an excuse for a lack of talent" ~FXC
  • #5
  • Jun 6, 2008 5:45am Jun 6, 2008 5:45am
if anything eur is gonna pop again + 100 manage your stops to +10 and lock it in and trail it from there. Then get out and enjoy your weekend.
"Diversification is an excuse for a lack of talent" ~FXC
  • #6
  • Jun 6, 2008 5:47am Jun 6, 2008 5:47am
I can see the orders stacking up already within the range you guys didnt just place orders of that nature recently to your brokers did you.


cheers
"Diversification is an excuse for a lack of talent" ~FXC
  • #7
  • Jun 6, 2008 9:05am Jun 6, 2008 9:05am
Quoting FXCapitalist
50 pip Trap Spread 3 contracts, 3 up 3 down, entry long 1.5640, entry short 1.5540 Hard stop 100 pips away from each, 1 contract TP +50 pips for each direction let the other 2 run. Plain and simple. Make it an OCO if you want.
That should have worked out nicely for you.
  • #8
  • Jun 6, 2008 10:21am Jun 6, 2008 10:21am
Quoting FXCapitalist
50 pip Trap Spread 3 contracts, 3 up 3 down, entry long 1.5640, entry short 1.5540 Hard stop 100 pips away from each, 1 contract TP +50 pips for each direction let the other 2 run. Plain and simple. Make it an OCO if you want.
Nice setup. I would like to know how your trades went.

Tolu
  • #9
  • Jun 6, 2008 10:40am Jun 6, 2008 10:40am
  •  FxChi
  • | Joined Dec 2007 | Status: Cash Rules Everything Around Me | 749 Posts
Quoting FXCapitalist
50 pip Trap Spread 3 contracts, 3 up 3 down, entry long 1.5640, entry short 1.5540 Hard stop 100 pips away from each, 1 contract TP +50 pips for each direction let the other 2 run. Plain and simple. Make it an OCO if you want.
Do you always play NFP in a similar fashion? I went back and reviewed what you said and essentially it looks like a straddle with 20 pips above the highs and 30 pips below the lows for the night with a generous 100 pip hard stop which accounts for the crazy volatility and makes sense. How's this trading been working out for you? I never trade NFP b/c I haven't found a good way to yet.

Also I posted something for you in the Euro/USD thread. Good job with the 1 lot long you've been holding. You've probably accrued incredible interest on it. Borat says - "Verrrrryyyyy Niiiiiice!!!!". LOL.
"Wishful thinking dies hard." Igor T.
  • #10
  • Jun 6, 2008 10:55am Jun 6, 2008 10:55am
Hi,
I closely followed the NFP results, I did my homework based on FF data:
Previous : -28k
Forecast: -57k.
Usual Effect: Actual > forecast = Good for currency

So, If NFP > -57K then SELL, else BUY.

But, NFP = -49K it means a SELL operation (-49 > -57). I mean, -49K is good for currency! the data was better than expected!, so, WHY the US dollar fell against the EUR over 150 pips???? from 1.5590 to 1.5730 (aprox. values).

am I wrong? am I missing something? is there something else? did the other indicators have something to do with the results?

Please help me to understand this

Regards!
Christancho
  • #11
  • Jun 6, 2008 11:11am Jun 6, 2008 11:11am
Like I said Trap Spread

Woke up this morning sitting pretty looks like NFP popped the euro as I expected. And if you traded my setup i hope u made money like I did 1 contract closed actually +70 pips lol! due to slippage lol since when has slippage ever worked in our favor, barely right? so yeah the open price was 1.5590 for all 3 contracts long 1 contract closed at 1.5663 to be exact so that's + 73 pips and the other 2 I'm running they're both sitting pretty right now for a total of +280 pips (+140 per contract). So I made my my airfare money this week time to go relax @ atlantic city. Anyways see you guys on sunday.


good trading

and cheers.
"Diversification is an excuse for a lack of talent" ~FXC
  • #12
  • Jun 6, 2008 11:14am Jun 6, 2008 11:14am
Quoting Christancho
Hi,
I closely followed the NFP results, I did my homework based on FF data:
Previous : -28k
Forecast: -57k.
Usual Effect: Actual > forecast = Good for currency

So, If NFP > -57K then SELL, else BUY.

But, NFP = -49K it means a SELL operation (-49 > -57). I mean, -49K is good for currency! the data was better than expected!, so, WHY the US dollar fell against the EUR over 150 pips???? from 1.5590 to 1.5730 (aprox. values).

am I wrong? am I missing something? is there something else? did the other indicators have something to do with the results?

Please help me to understand this

Regards!
Christancho
It's called the market being an uncontrollable beast.
"Diversification is an excuse for a lack of talent" ~FXC
  • #13
  • Jun 6, 2008 11:21am Jun 6, 2008 11:21am
Im pretty sure the unemployment rate had something to do with that jump as well
  • #14
  • Jun 6, 2008 11:23am Jun 6, 2008 11:23am
Quoting FxChi
Do you always play NFP in a similar fashion? I went back and reviewed what you said and essentially it looks like a straddle with 20 pips above the highs and 30 pips below the lows for the night with a generous 100 pip hard stop which accounts for the crazy volatility and makes sense. How's this trading been working out for you? I never trade NFP b/c I haven't found a good way to yet.

Also I posted something for you in the Euro/USD thread. Good job with the 1 lot long you've been holding. You've probably accrued incredible interest on it. Borat says - "Verrrrryyyyy Niiiiiice!!!!". LOL.

OH SNAP I totally forgot to look at that one lol that one is currently sitting @ +1352 pips since december 20 for doing basically nothing! with a +roll of about +$347.70 you guys should try that long term stuff i mean the euro aint dropping to 1.40 overnight lol.
"Diversification is an excuse for a lack of talent" ~FXC
  • #15
  • Jun 6, 2008 11:24am Jun 6, 2008 11:24am
Quoting Weasy2k
Im pretty sure the unemployment rate had something to do with that jump as well
of course
"Diversification is an excuse for a lack of talent" ~FXC
  • #16
  • Jun 6, 2008 11:28am Jun 6, 2008 11:28am
the wholesale inventories were almost off by 1% so that had a little push to the drop of the dollar.



*go Euro
"Diversification is an excuse for a lack of talent" ~FXC
  • #17
  • Jun 6, 2008 11:31am Jun 6, 2008 11:31am
Quoting FXCapitalist
Like I said Trap Spread

Woke up this morning sitting pretty looks like NFP popped the euro as I expected. And if you traded my setup i hope u made money like I did 1 contract closed actually +70 pips lol! due to slippage lol since when has slippage ever worked in our favor, barely right? so yeah the open price was 1.5590 for all 3 contracts long 1 contract closed at 1.5663 to be exact so that's + 73 pips and the other 2 I'm running they're both sitting pretty right now for a total of +280 pips (+140 per contract). So I made my my airfare money this week time to go relax @ atlantic city. Anyways see you guys on sunday.


good trading

and cheers.
Kudos to you! Thank you for sharing your setup with us, is it something you use at each release?

I tend to stay flat on Friday's...but I have joined the party today, up big for me (+104 pips), but nothing like your run. What a phenomenonal gain!

"The markets are the greatest chess match ever played."
  • #18
  • Jun 6, 2008 11:04pm Jun 6, 2008 11:04pm
Quoting Tradester
Kudos to you! Thank you for sharing your setup with us, is it something you use at each release?

I tend to stay flat on Friday's...but I have joined the party today, up big for me (+104 pips), but nothing like your run. What a phenomenonal gain!

Yeah actually that's something I do on news releases, central bank head conversations and interest rate decisions usually I'm already in the probable position in the 1st place and the counter entries are just for hedging purposes. the other 2 are still running up +362 pips in total i think Ill hold it till next weeks end, maybe till trichet announces the rate hike of maybe .50 BP
"Diversification is an excuse for a lack of talent" ~FXC
  • #19
  • Edited 9:12am Jun 7, 2008 12:50am | Edited 9:12am
  •  FxChi
  • | Joined Dec 2007 | Status: Cash Rules Everything Around Me | 749 Posts
Quoting FXCapitalist
OH SNAP I totally forgot to look at that one lol that one is currently sitting @ +1352 pips since december 20 for doing basically nothing! with a +roll of about +$347.70 you guys should try that long term stuff i mean the euro aint dropping to 1.40 overnight lol.
I think you're right. I'm a newb and i've already overleveraged myself on the pair. Keep up the good work.
"Wishful thinking dies hard." Igor T.
  • #20
  • Jun 7, 2008 10:04am Jun 7, 2008 10:04am
hmmmm

at last print just has hoped

we got it rolling we broke the resistance but NFP is not over yet for those that always trade it like me after every big movement there is always a .........

enjoy

meet ya at the top
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