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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #89,101
  • Jun 5, 2008 3:59am Jun 5, 2008 3:59am
What price should this fall reach?
  • #89,102
  • Jun 5, 2008 3:59am Jun 5, 2008 3:59am
Quoting gene22
As it was discussed previously, there are certain cycles that one has to be aware off, a huge selloff is immenent, it is just a matter of time, one thing to watch for is 11:30 gmt 30 min yen candle, if there is a clear reversal signal at that point, this is it.

Clouds, trend changes do happen, yes no doubt about it, but they have to be at the right price and most importantly at the right time, the market is not random, not at all, trust me when I say this, we will see below the last low on the yen/usd of 95.73 a lot sooner than we will see 108.70.. That level represents extreme that will not be surpassed. Now from the current price if you went long the maximum pips that you would get is 280, if you went short , you would go with the long term trend and your potential conservative gain is approximatelly 1000 pips. Now what trend change are you talking about?! Take a look at monthly, this is a clear long term downtrend that has, I repeat, mark my words has to finish it's last major 5th wave down, there is no iffs, buts or maybes about it it has to do it, simple as that. There are natural cycles at work in nature, the same applies to the markets, enough said.
You seem very confident. We'll have to wait and see.
  • #89,103
  • Jun 5, 2008 4:02am Jun 5, 2008 4:02am
Quoting Küster
What price should this fall reach?
203.06
  • #89,104
  • Jun 5, 2008 4:03am Jun 5, 2008 4:03am
Quoting Küster
What price should this fall reach?
Im trying to get out of my short at 206.30.

I am not confident it is going to happen though...
Que
  • #89,105
  • Jun 5, 2008 4:04am Jun 5, 2008 4:04am
im looking for 204.5 as first tp but i believe it will go lower.
  • #89,106
  • Jun 5, 2008 4:08am Jun 5, 2008 4:08am
The bigest thing I see is the UJ has been overbought for the last 12+ hours. I do not think it can substain this movement without a breather for much longer...
Que
  • #89,107
  • Jun 5, 2008 4:08am Jun 5, 2008 4:08am
really amazing what a sudden push can do to this thread, in no time everyone is bullish, and now we switch back to bearish?
no offense though, everyone is trading different timeframes, i guess this is also what causes the most difficulties in understanding each others analyses.
  • #89,108
  • Jun 5, 2008 4:09am Jun 5, 2008 4:09am
Quoting Clouds
You seem very confident. We'll have to wait and see.
Lol, let me put it this way, everything in universe behaves according to the law of nature: the stars get born- 1st wave, grow- 2nd wave, mature-3rd wave, start to age-4th wave, and then finally die-5th wave. The same can be applied to any living thing, you and me and of course the markets. The usd/yen pair is in a dying mode at the moment it had finished a major 4th wave on 6/22/07 and had enterd it's final 5th wave decline, but in that decline there are also waves and currently we are nearing the end of another 4th of a smaller degree. A resumption to complete the last fall will start, yes I'm confident simply because so far I have'd seen anything in nature to deviate from this law for millions of years, I'd say this gives me plenty of confidence
  • #89,109
  • Jun 5, 2008 4:09am Jun 5, 2008 4:09am
Quoting gene22
As it was discussed previously, there are certain cycles that one has to be aware off, a huge selloff is immenent, it is just a matter of time, one thing to watch for is 11:30 gmt 30 min yen candle, if there is a clear reversal signal at that point, this is it.

Clouds, trend changes do happen, yes no doubt about it, but they have to be at the right price and most importantly at the right time, the market is not random, not at all, trust me when I say this, we will see below the last low on the yen/usd of 95.73 a lot sooner than we will see 108.70.. That level represents extreme that will not be surpassed. Now from the current price if you went long the maximum pips that you would get is 280, if you went short , you would go with the long term trend and your potential conservative gain is approximatelly 1000 pips. Now what trend change are you talking about?! Take a look at monthly, this is a clear long term downtrend that has, I repeat, mark my words has to finish it's last major 5th wave down, there is no iffs, buts or maybes about it it has to do it, simple as that. There are natural cycles at work in nature, the same applies to the markets, enough said.

Thank you for you insight bro, much appreciated.
  • #89,110
  • Jun 5, 2008 4:10am Jun 5, 2008 4:10am
Quoting forexnoob101
buys at 206

thank u, thank u very much!!!



sorry don't have time...


forexnoob101
no on ever wants to listen to me...


well i just want to say.......................... told u soooooo.. there i said it, hehe jk jk
  • #89,111
  • Jun 5, 2008 4:13am Jun 5, 2008 4:13am
Quoting frevd
really amazing what a sudden push can do to this thread, in no time everyone is bullish, and now we switch back to bearish?
no offense though, everyone is trading different timeframes, i guess this is also what causes the most difficulties in understanding each others analyses.
Sorry man, but Karmo and Clouds both hit me up for calling a short earlier (Yes it did get stopped out), but I have been short all day. I can not see how we can be a long with everything pegging the overbought for the last 12 hours.
Que
  • #89,112
  • Jun 5, 2008 4:13am Jun 5, 2008 4:13am
Quoting gene22
1st wave, grow- 2nd wave, mature-3rd wave, start to age-4th wave, and then finally die-5th wave.
I don't believe in the Elliot Wave, sorry
  • #89,113
  • Jun 5, 2008 4:14am Jun 5, 2008 4:14am
Quoting frevd
really amazing what a sudden push can do to this thread, in no time everyone is bullish, and now we switch back to bearish?
no offense though, everyone is trading different timeframes, i guess this is also what causes the most difficulties in understanding each others analyses.

let see what will happen at 7am
wheather 207.63 or the gap will filled soon
just keep on patience and she will fly to the north
  • #89,114
  • Jun 5, 2008 4:14am Jun 5, 2008 4:14am
Quoting gene22
As it was discussed previously, there are certain cycles that one has to be aware off, a huge selloff is immenent, it is just a matter of time, one thing to watch for is 11:30 gmt 30 min yen candle, if there is a clear reversal signal at that point, this is it.

Clouds, trend changes do happen, yes no doubt about it, but they have to be at the right price and most importantly at the right time, the market is not random, not at all, trust me when I say this, we will see below the last low on the yen/usd of 95.73 a lot sooner than we will see 108.70.. That level represents extreme that will not be surpassed. Now from the current price if you went long the maximum pips that you would get is 280, if you went short , you would go with the long term trend and your potential conservative gain is approximatelly 1000 pips. Now what trend change are you talking about?! Take a look at monthly, this is a clear long term downtrend that has, I repeat, mark my words has to finish it's last major 5th wave down, there is no iffs, buts or maybes about it it has to do it, simple as that. There are natural cycles at work in nature, the same applies to the markets, enough said.

Guys please note Gene's statement which is VERY important. Price MUST be in a time window to reverse, otherwise price will chop sideways UNTIL it arrives in its time window, then it will move.

We all have good ideas about price levels - prior highs / lows, pivots, sweet spots, fibos etc BUT mastering time and its cycles is a different matter and IMO far more difficult! Thanks Gene22 for your input....http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon14.gif
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #89,115
  • Jun 5, 2008 4:14am Jun 5, 2008 4:14am
Hello, I'm new to FF, can somebody please check if my chart set up is correct. The chart is at 14.40GMT, daily pivot at 205.47. I am using MT4, any response will be much appreciated. Actually I had posted it to 15min strategy thread, but the thread is quite inactive, so I decided to post it here. Thanks to Auslanco and all the others who have contributed to this thread.
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  • #89,116
  • Jun 5, 2008 4:15am Jun 5, 2008 4:15am
Quoting gene22
Lol, let me put it this way, everything in universe behaves according to the law of nature: the stars get born- 1st wave, grow- 2nd wave, mature-3rd wave, start to age-4th wave, and then finally die-5th wave. The same can be applied to any living thing, you and me and of course the markets. The usd/yen pair is in a dying mode at the moment it had finished a major 4th wave on 6/22/07 and had enterd it's final 5th wave decline, but in that decline there are also waves and currently we are nearing the end of another 4th of a smaller degree. A resumption to complete the last fall will start, yes I'm confident simply because so far I have'd seen anything in nature to deviate from this law for millions of years, I'd say this gives me plenty of confidence
what's after death....new life. are you still thinking that there will be a short term bull run as you were thinking last week?
"Keep your eyes on the helpers" - Mr. Rogers
  • #89,117
  • Jun 5, 2008 4:15am Jun 5, 2008 4:15am
Quoting gene22
Take a look at monthly, this is a clear long term downtrend that has, I repeat, mark my words has to finish it's last major 5th wave down, there is no ifs, buts or maybes about it it has to do it, simple as that. There are natural cycles at work in nature, the same applies to the markets, enough said.
I'm not saying you're wrong, but I don't understand how experienced participants here on FF can say stuff like this. You do agree on that we trade based on probabilities, right ? If not, there is no point going further with this discussion.

I have seen some good analyzes from you, no doubt, and happen to be some that obtain market experience on this thread. But again, it amaze me how some traders can exclude the opposite scenario to happen.

Are you saying; my analyze have an absolutely sure outcome with no potential failure ?
Measure twice, cut once
  • #89,118
  • Jun 5, 2008 4:16am Jun 5, 2008 4:16am
Oh and BTW...

Money Management > All Else.

I can afford to be wrong a lot and still end up in the profit at the end of the month...
Que
  • #89,119
  • Jun 5, 2008 4:21am Jun 5, 2008 4:21am
Quoting gene22
Lol, let me put it this way, everything in universe behaves according to the law of nature: the stars get born- 1st wave, grow- 2nd wave, mature-3rd wave, start to age-4th wave, and then finally die-5th wave. The same can be applied to any living thing, you and me and of course the markets. The usd/yen pair is in a dying mode at the moment it had finished a major 4th wave on 6/22/07 and had enterd it's final 5th wave decline, but in that decline there are also waves and currently we are nearing the end of another 4th of a smaller degree. A resumption to complete the last fall will start, yes I'm confident simply because so far I have'd seen anything in nature to deviate from this law for millions of years, I'd say this gives me plenty of confidence
Can't find your previous post, but yes 280 pips are fine for me. I don't sit and wait 3 months for a trend to resume, I'll trade other pairs, if a pair is crappy.
  • #89,120
  • Jun 5, 2008 4:23am Jun 5, 2008 4:23am
The pull back in Frankies Hour to the higher low just above todays pivot provided another buy opportunity and was followed by a nice move up to test Tuesdays highs at the 207 level - I closed my longs in this run up.

At failed retest of the 207 area will put me short, but for now I'm waiting to see what the BOE have to say.....
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