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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #89,081
  • Jun 5, 2008 3:16am Jun 5, 2008 3:16am
i got 100 pip from gj today
  • #89,082
  • Jun 5, 2008 3:23am Jun 5, 2008 3:23am
106.65-107.20 is the reversal zone on the usd/yen, weekly cci had just cleared 100 level, in the type of donwntrend that we are in it is severe, last reading above this level was on 6/10 of 2007, one year ago. Inmo this is extremely significant and a violent turn lower is imminent.
  • #89,083
  • Jun 5, 2008 3:24am Jun 5, 2008 3:24am
Quoting gene22
106.65-107.20 is the reversal zone on the usd/yen, weekly cci had just cleared 100 level, in the type of donwntrend that we are in it is severe, last reading above this level was on 6/10 of 2007, one year ago. Inmo this is extremely significant and a violent turn lower is imminent.
I wouldn't say imminent. Sure, there's chance, but there's chance there are actual reversals of trends, as they happen all the time.
  • #89,084
  • Jun 5, 2008 3:25am Jun 5, 2008 3:25am
now look at that mess, eur, pound and usd strong versus yen? how can that possibly be stable??

http://img171.imageshack.us/img171/9091/messyb3.th.png
  • #89,085
  • Jun 5, 2008 3:26am Jun 5, 2008 3:26am
Quoting shakesfx
Why would G/J carry trade increase when UK rates may drop and risk in the UK banking sector is still high?


shakes, there's something else to worry about... screw the shorts. listen.

today is thrusday, tomorrow is the end of the week. if UJ closes above the Upper TL in the following chart, u can really KISS shorts goodbye for a long time. but of course this COULD be a false breach. and failure to breach will be really good for our shorts. but we have to keep a close watch.

by the way. this IS a broadning wedge formation on UJ, and it DOES signal huge reversal to the upside on the major trend level. i was reevaluating ALL of my analysis last night, and i came up with lots of other things. one thing that might prevent this from a huge breakout, is actually the bearish HD that is forming.


i'm a bit busy right now, will post more as i come back to my office.

here's the chart.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: uj_weekly.gif Size: 28 KB
  • #89,086
  • Jun 5, 2008 3:27am Jun 5, 2008 3:27am
so easy collect 200pips today today
maybe i need some greedy to go 208
  • #89,087
  • Jun 5, 2008 3:30am Jun 5, 2008 3:30am
Quoting gene22
106.65-107.20 is the reversal zone on the usd/yen, weekly cci had just cleared 100 level, in the type of donwntrend that we are in it is severe, last reading above this level was on 6/10 of 2007, one year ago. Inmo this is extremely significant and a violent turn lower is imminent.

yep, if the TL i posted wasn't breached to the upside, this WILL be a HUGE turning point. it does mean that UJ will revisit the bottom TL in the end of june or to first or mind july with price below 90.0
  • #89,088
  • Jun 5, 2008 3:30am Jun 5, 2008 3:30am
Quoting lilmoe
today is thrusday, tomorrow is the end of the week. if UJ closes above the Upper TL in the following chart, u can really KISS shorts goodbye for a long time. but of course this COULD be a false breach. and failure to breach will be really good for our shorts. but we have to keep a close watch.
so you go d'accord with my analysis of monthly trend a day ago? that we seen the bottom and can only extend long up to 213.70? damn, why did i switch sides, me hog.
  • #89,089
  • Jun 5, 2008 3:31am Jun 5, 2008 3:31am
Quoting gene22
106.65-107.20 is the reversal zone on the usd/yen, weekly cci had just cleared 100 level, in the type of donwntrend that we are in it is severe, last reading above this level was on 6/10 of 2007, one year ago. Inmo this is extremely significant and a violent turn lower is imminent.

Asian Central Bank forced price above 106. Stops wanted at 106.20 and possibly at 106.60...seems either they are very confident, or are driving it up for a massive offload....thoughts bro?
  • #89,090
  • Jun 5, 2008 3:34am Jun 5, 2008 3:34am
Quoting lilmoe
shakes, there's something else to worry about... screw the shorts. listen.

today is thrusday, tomorrow is the end of the week. if UJ closes above the Upper TL in the following chart, u can really KISS shorts goodbye for a long time. but of course this COULD be a false breach. and failure to breach will be really good for our shorts. but we have to keep a close watch.

by the way. this IS a broadning wedge formation on UJ, and it DOES signal huge reversal to the upside on the major trend level. i was reevaluating ALL of my analysis last night, and i came up with lots of other things. one thing that might prevent this from a huge breakout, is actually the bearish HD that is forming.


i'm a bit busy right now, will post more as i come back to my office.

here's the chart.

Attachment
Ok bro, cheers...I'm watching carefully and evaluating...
  • #89,091
  • Jun 5, 2008 3:38am Jun 5, 2008 3:38am
Quoting shakesfx
Asian Central Bank forced price above 106. Stops wanted at 106.20 and possibly at 106.60...seems either they are very confident, or are driving it up for a massive offload....thoughts bro?
k, so when tokyo ends in a few minutes we see reversal or what?
  • #89,092
  • Jun 5, 2008 3:40am Jun 5, 2008 3:40am
Quoting lilmoe
shakes, there's something else to worry about... screw the shorts. listen.

today is thrusday, tomorrow is the end of the week. if UJ closes above the Upper TL in the following chart, u can really KISS shorts goodbye for a long time. but of course this COULD be a false breach. and failure to breach will be really good for our shorts. but we have to keep a close watch.

by the way. this IS a broadning wedge formation on UJ, and it DOES signal huge reversal to the upside on the major trend level. i was reevaluating ALL of my analysis last night, and i came up with lots of other things. one thing that might prevent this from a huge breakout, is actually the bearish HD that is forming.


i'm a bit busy right now, will post more as i come back to my office.

here's the chart.

Attachment
good analysis
"Keep your eyes on the helpers" - Mr. Rogers
  • #89,093
  • Jun 5, 2008 3:42am Jun 5, 2008 3:42am
at this moment all i can say is that i agree with 207.8 level; as for what's next, we'll see from there.
the big fall is coming, slowly but surely .

Quoting gene22
This ia a Correction c wave up, most likely targets are between 207.65-207.85, the cycle high made on 5/30 should not be exceeded, on a daily closing bases, inmo, otherwize there would be a substantial shift and I do not see any signs for that to happen. My outlook had changed a bit due to the latest developments, I expect a big fall tomorrow and Monday, sideways range movement for aproximatelly 1 month and then a major low to form in the mid to a 3rd week of July.
Nihil Sine Deo.
  • #89,094
  • Jun 5, 2008 3:42am Jun 5, 2008 3:42am
This is the beast and everyone should trade wisely..

204.80 as we have seen is a tough nut to crack, price should go and re-test the highs unless we get some surprise, and if the high is broken, 213 will be on the cards

Good luck
Trade what you see, not what you think.
  • #89,095
  • Jun 5, 2008 3:43am Jun 5, 2008 3:43am
Quoting gene22
This ia a Correction c wave up, most likely targets are between 207.65-207.85, the cycle high made on 5/30 should not be exceeded, on a daily closing bases, inmo, otherwize there would be a substantial shift and I do not see any signs for that to happen. My outlook had changed a bit due to the latest developments, I expect a big fall tomorrow and Monday, sideways range movement for aproximatelly 1 month and then a major low to form in the mid to a 3rd week of July.
why the change?
"Keep your eyes on the helpers" - Mr. Rogers
  • #89,096
  • Jun 5, 2008 3:48am Jun 5, 2008 3:48am
i think we are in a buy the rumor sell the fact phase right now
  • #89,097
  • Jun 5, 2008 3:50am Jun 5, 2008 3:50am
Well I got stopped out earlier. Karmo was right.

I hear everyone on the North Bandwagon, and yes we just moved north, But I am seeing a lot of pins forming on this last up move. Looks like a 50-60 pip reversal comming to me...
Que
  • #89,098
  • Jun 5, 2008 3:52am Jun 5, 2008 3:52am
for my TP i will refer at Demark Trendline Trader at 207.63
  • #89,099
  • Jun 5, 2008 3:54am Jun 5, 2008 3:54am
hmm..i was watching a video of a dead cat bounce..and refered it direct to the g/j charts..

on monday earlier this week, when the gap happened..it went to a low of 206.96, then later went up but then dropped dead later..

then on 3rd june, price retested this 206.96 again to a high of 207.11 and drop dead again..

now again to a top of 207.2 and dropped dead..

hmmm..smells to me like a dead cat bouce from the lower resistance of the opening gap??

to me.. i guess so and im gonna trade based on this fact for now..
  • #89,100
  • Jun 5, 2008 3:55am Jun 5, 2008 3:55am
Quoting shakesfx
Asian Central Bank forced price above 106. Stops wanted at 106.20 and possibly at 106.60...seems either they are very confident, or are driving it up for a massive offload....thoughts bro?
As it was discussed previously, there are certain cycles that one has to be aware off, a huge selloff is immenent, it is just a matter of time, one thing to watch for is 11:30 gmt 30 min yen candle, if there is a clear reversal signal at that point, this is it.

Clouds, trend changes do happen, yes no doubt about it, but they have to be at the right price and most importantly at the right time, the market is not random, not at all, trust me when I say this, we will see below the last low on the yen/usd of 95.73 a lot sooner than we will see 108.70.. That level represents extreme that will not be surpassed. Now from the current price if you went long the maximum pips that you would get is 280, if you went short , you would go with the long term trend and your potential conservative gain is approximatelly 1000 pips. Now what trend change are you talking about?! Take a look at monthly, this is a clear long term downtrend that has, I repeat, mark my words has to finish it's last major 5th wave down, there is no iffs, buts or maybes about it it has to do it, simple as that. There are natural cycles at work in nature, the same applies to the markets, enough said.
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