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Triangular Breakout System

  • #1
  • First Post: Jun 2, 2008 11:20pm Jun 2, 2008 11:20pm
Hi all,
After i spend a lot of viewing and testing many method and system in FF, now i want to share the system i recently use and test with my mini account.

Setup : 30 minutes charts (EURUSD, USDJPY, EURJPY) ==> i called it TRIANGULAR

The setup is so simple

RULE :
- Look the open price of the bar at 01.30 GMT (convert to your own broker time) at each charts (EURUSD, USDJPY, EURJPY).
- For EURUSD and USDJPY, add 50 pips to the open price of the bar at 01.30 GMT, put Buy Stop there with 10 Take Profit, no Stop Loss
- For EURJPY, substract 50 pips to the open price of the bar at 01.30 GMT, put Sell Stop there with 10 Take Profit, no Stop Loss
- Close all pending orders if one of the order hit the Take Profit
- If 2 of the pending orders execute, close the pending orders that not executed yet. (let it run until profit or the loss is not bigger than 10 pips)

We can backtest the system...
Sorry if my english is bad.
Any comment, thought, idea will welcome..
Maybe this system not perfect anymore..
  • #2
  • Jun 3, 2008 12:32am Jun 3, 2008 12:32am
Hi friend,

I am sure you have a rational for your system - add 50 pips, subtract 50 pips, etc. But i am not too sure about a no-stop-loss strategy. I have seen not very many systems like that and the inevitable result has been a one-day loss that exceeded all the profits the system ever gave. Or are you saying this is fail-proof?
  • #3
  • Jun 3, 2008 12:59am Jun 3, 2008 12:59am
Quoting Andigho
Hi friend,

I am sure you have a rational for your system - add 50 pips, subtract 50 pips, etc. But i am not too sure about a no-stop-loss strategy. I have seen not very many systems like that and the inevitable result has been a one-day loss that exceeded all the profits the system ever gave. Or are you saying this is fail-proof?
What you said is true, if we don't set stop loss a one-day loss can exceeded all the profits the system ever gave
But don't forget this is a breakout combine with trianguler system, so don't worry it will exploid all your account.
For example if the pending order that executed is EURUSD (BUY)and USD JPY (BUY) so it is some kind of hedging, so whereever they go maybe PROFIT and maybe LOSS, but the loss is not too much and the profit is not too much too..so just let it go if 2 of the pending orders execute (but remember to close the other that not executed)..wait until profit and close...

You can back test it from Januari 2008...almost No Loss...
Note : remember to close all the pending orders if one of the order hit the take profit (10pips)
  • #4
  • Jun 3, 2008 1:27am Jun 3, 2008 1:27am
hi
if two order open wait to sum of them go to 10pip profit and then close?
  • #5
  • Jun 3, 2008 1:37am Jun 3, 2008 1:37am
Quoting rzamany
hi
if two order open wait to sum of them go to 10pip profit and then close?
yes, wait to sum of them go to break even or profit (10 pips or more, depend on you), but i suggest just 10 pips.. don't too greedy..the important thing is no loss..
  • #6
  • Jun 3, 2008 11:25am Jun 3, 2008 11:25am
budi,
How are your forward testing on your mini account with this?

Thanks for sharing..

Bruce


Quoting budi_838
Hi all,
After i spend a lot of viewing and testing many method and system in FF, now i want to share the system i recently use and test with my mini account.

Setup : 30 minutes charts (EURUSD, USDJPY, EURJPY) ==> i called it TRIANGULAR

The setup is so simple

RULE :
- Look the open price of the bar at 01.30 GMT (convert to your own broker time) at each charts (EURUSD, USDJPY, EURJPY).
- For EURUSD and USDJPY, add 50 pips to the open price of the bar at 01.30 GMT, put Buy Stop there with 10 Take Profit, no Stop Loss
- For EURJPY, substract 50 pips to the open price of the bar at 01.30 GMT, put Sell Stop there with 10 Take Profit, no Stop Loss
- Close all pending orders if one of the order hit the Take Profit
- If 2 of the pending orders execute, close the pending orders that not executed yet. (let it run until profit or the loss is not bigger than 10 pips)

We can backtest the system...
Sorry if my english is bad.
Any comment, thought, idea will welcome..
Maybe this system not perfect anymore..
  • #7
  • Jun 3, 2008 8:59pm Jun 3, 2008 8:59pm
Quoting brucech
budi,
How are your forward testing on your mini account with this?

Thanks for sharing..

Bruce
I have just forward test for a week with no loss..and i have back test from januari 2008 with no loss too...

You can back test the system easyly..
You just draw vertical line at 01.30 GMT for each day and then you draw horizontal line (open price at 01.30 GMT + 5O pips) for EURUSD and USDJPY.
But for EURJPY, you draw horizontal line (open price at 01.30 GMT - 50 pips).
  • #8
  • Jun 3, 2008 10:46pm Jun 3, 2008 10:46pm
If one order is triggered, you let it run regardless of the loss?

If two are triggered, you let them only lose 10 pips total before closing them out?

Is this correct?
  • #9
  • Jun 3, 2008 11:05pm Jun 3, 2008 11:05pm
Not bad - you are going to get your ten pips 9 times out of ten on the first pair to make the 50 pip move and then your done for the day. other times it will fail to reach target but you will be hedged and can close out for a small loss at worst. The downside is, Occaisionally, the loss will be large as the pairs can move 100 pips plus out of correlation leaving you exposed without a hedge. then when your hedge does kick in you need to monitor it 24/7 for days or weeks waiting for it to come back. Its still the best mechanical way I have seen of getting the impossible 10 pips everyday but not fool proof, as you may need to take a 100 pip loss one day. hopefully that will be after you already have 1000 pips but it could be the very next trade. Risk management applies. Well done!

btw why did you pick 1.30 gmt as the optimum reference point?
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  • #10
  • Jun 4, 2008 1:03am Jun 4, 2008 1:03am
Quoting billbss
If one order is triggered, you let it run regardless of the loss?

If two are triggered, you let them only lose 10 pips total before closing them out?

Is this correct?
Good question,

If one order is triggered, there are 2 scenarios:
1. the order hit the take profit (if hit take profit, close the two pending orders that not triggered)
2. the order doesn't hit take profit (let it run and wait until two are triggered). if two are triggered, delete the other pending order that not triggered and then delete all take profit (10pips) setting for the two triggered. Let the two triggered order run without stoploss and take profit...and wait until profit between -10pips < Profit < 10pips
  • #11
  • Jun 4, 2008 1:13am Jun 4, 2008 1:13am
Quoting M.A.C.Doug
Not bad - you are going to get your ten pips 9 times out of ten on the first pair to make the 50 pip move and then your done for the day. other times it will fail to reach target but you will be hedged and can close out for a small loss at worst. The downside is, Occaisionally, the loss will be large as the pairs can move 100 pips plus out of correlation leaving you exposed without a hedge. then when your hedge does kick in you need to monitor it 24/7 for days or weeks waiting for it to come back. Its still the best mechanical way I have seen of getting the impossible 10 pips everyday but not fool proof, as you may need to take a 100 pip loss one day. hopefully that will be after you already have 1000 pips but it could be the very next trade. Risk management applies. Well done!

btw why did you pick 1.30 gmt as the optimum reference point?
I have back test with FXOpen broker from January 2008 the maximum drawdown not greater than 200 pips and maximum days to wait until -10pips < Profit < 10pips not more than 5 days
So in that 5 days waiting dan monitoring, we can trade in the 5 days and make profit.
From January 2008 there're not 2 consecutive days for that scenario.

I pick 1.30 gmt because :
1. i have backtest it and it is the best setting
2. there usually price ranging from 21.00 gmt to 01.30 gmt, and after that the price usually start to trending ( not always and not exactly the time but from history it is about that time).
  • #12
  • Jun 4, 2008 3:31am Jun 4, 2008 3:31am
Quoting budi_838
Good question,

If one order is triggered, there are 2 scenarios:
1. the order hit the take profit (if hit take profit, close the two pending orders that not triggered)
2. the order doesn't hit take profit (let it run and wait until two are triggered). if two are triggered, delete the other pending order that not triggered and then delete all take profit (10pips) setting for the two triggered. Let the two triggered order run without stoploss and take profit...and wait until profit between -10pips < Profit < 10pips
Let me get clarification on what I have underlined, above.

After the second order triggers, are you saying to let the two run until the profit is between -10 pips and +10 pips?
Let's say that when the 2nd order is triggered, I am down a total of 40 pips. Do I hold them open until I'm only down -10 pips or do I wait for a profit of +10 pips?

Thanks
  • #13
  • Jun 4, 2008 4:58am Jun 4, 2008 4:58am
Quoting billbss
Let me get clarification on what I have underlined, above.

After the second order triggers, are you saying to let the two run until the profit is between -10 pips and +10 pips?
Let's say that when the 2nd order is triggered, I am down a total of 40 pips. Do I hold them open until I'm only down -10 pips or do I wait for a profit of +10 pips?

Thanks
Yes between that, you can close at break even, but i prefer close between -10pips and 10pips. It avoid us to wait for along time until profit larger than 10 pips...
  • #14
  • Jun 4, 2008 8:30am Jun 4, 2008 8:30am
well E/J was first to the post today and quickly netted the ten pips. Just as well as the other two were more than 50 pips away from there entry triggers stuck in pre nfp consolidation. I am going to continue with this strategy. You need to know when an entry is triggered so some kind of alert system will help to avoid constant screen time. Thankyou for the system and your backtesting work budi - excellent work, quite ingenious
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  • #15
  • Jun 4, 2008 8:46am Jun 4, 2008 8:46am
Quoting M.A.C.Doug
well E/J was first to the post today and quickly netted the ten pips. Just as well as the other two were more than 50 pips away from there entry triggers stuck in pre nfp consolidation. I am going to continue with this strategy. You need to know when an entry is triggered so some kind of alert system will help to avoid constant screen time. Thankyou for the system and your backtesting work budi - excellent work, quite ingenious
You can set an alert using the MT4 alert function.
  • #16
  • Jun 4, 2008 11:23am Jun 4, 2008 11:23am
Quoting budi_838
Hi all,
After i spend a lot of viewing and testing many method and system in FF, now i want to share the system i recently use and test with my mini account.

Setup : 30 minutes charts (EURUSD, USDJPY, EURJPY) ==> i called it TRIANGULAR

The setup is so simple

RULE :
- Look the open price of the bar at 01.30 GMT (convert to your own broker time) at each charts (EURUSD, USDJPY, EURJPY).
- For EURUSD and USDJPY, add 50 pips to the open price of the bar at 01.30 GMT, put Buy Stop there with 10 Take Profit, no Stop Loss
- For EURJPY, substract 50 pips to the open price of the bar at 01.30 GMT, put Sell Stop there with 10 Take Profit, no Stop Loss
- Close all pending orders if one of the order hit the Take Profit
- If 2 of the pending orders execute, close the pending orders that not executed yet. (let it run until profit or the loss is not bigger than 10 pips)

We can backtest the system...
Sorry if my english is bad.
Any comment, thought, idea will welcome..
Maybe this system not perfect anymore..
This seems interesting, for hedging reasons I think you could also do the triangle with EURUSD, USDCHF and EURCHF. Did a small backcheck till April and it didnt show any loss. Could you post one chart with a veritcal line over the bar that is the 01:30 GMT on you chart, that way I can compare your chart and mine and easly find out the exac bar to use. The different broker times and GMT has confused me before. Thanks for your efforts.
Two more question: Does your profittaking of 10 pips include the spread? How did you come to think about this?
  • #17
  • Jun 4, 2008 11:33am Jun 4, 2008 11:33am
You would have gotten creamed yesterday. I calculated before 1200 GMT, before Bernanke sent the dollar higher. You would have EURJPY ay -140 pips and EURUSD at + 30 pips.
  • #18
  • Jun 4, 2008 11:36am Jun 4, 2008 11:36am
At the end of the day you would be about -30 on EURJPY and -120 or so on EURUSD. Do you just keep it on and wait it out, trying to get back to +- 10 pips?
  • #19
  • Jun 4, 2008 2:02pm Jun 4, 2008 2:02pm
Quoting bhale
You would have gotten creamed yesterday. I calculated before 1200 GMT, before Bernanke sent the dollar higher. You would have EURJPY ay -140 pips and EURUSD at + 30 pips.
When I look at yesterday's charts the first trade was on the EURUSD at 930 CET or 730 GMT and it was a quick 10 pips, and that should be that for yesterday - a winner.
  • #20
  • Jun 4, 2008 5:34pm Jun 4, 2008 5:34pm
Quoting bhale
At the end of the day you would be about -30 on EURJPY and -120 or so on EURUSD. Do you just keep it on and wait it out, trying to get back to +- 10 pips?
I don't know what you're looking at.
My chart shows the 10 pip profit made at about 0800 GMT on the EUR/USD.
Nothing else triggered.
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